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OOS Collapse Propagation Model

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NIST don't seem to...

That's just your impression, because you've chosen to interpret it in a specific way.


As a result of the buckling of the south wall, the south wall significantly unloaded (Fig. 5–3), redistributing its load to the softened core through the hat truss and to the south side of the east and west walls through the spandrels.
As a result of. Following. Subsequent to. A consequence of. Load redistribution from deforming East and West perimeter to core.

You're editorialising. The words in bold are yours, not NIST's. When processes are progressing over a finite period of time, it's not only possible but perfectly reasonable for a process to trigger another process, yet for both to be occurring at the same time. The above is a perfect example; as the centre of the south wall buckled, load was redistributed to the core, then as the buckling progressed outwards the redistribution of load increased. It's your interpretation that one process had to be completed before the other commenced; NIST says no such thing.

NIST clearly describe these as progressive processes, not simultaneous.

"Progressive" and "simultaneous" are not antonyms.

Dave
 
NIST don't seem to...


Clearly referencing the South wall perimeter columns, from the center of the facade towards the South perimeter corners.


As a result of. Following. Subsequent to. A consequence of. Load redistribution from deforming East and West perimeter to core.


Clear order of events being described. FROM South wall, TO East and West walls, TO core columns.

NIST clearly describe these as progressive processes, not simultaneous.


No.

NIST gives the state of the various building systems in their report.

The core was unloading over time.

The floors were sagging over time.

The ext columns were bowing over time.

Etc.

They were all happening at the same time.

The visible buckling of the ext columns wasn't the cause of the collapse.

It was the visible result of all these things hapening at the same time period.

But your conspiracy addled brain cannot see it as such. No surprise there...
 
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Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Tricky
 
That's just your impression, because you've chosen to interpret it in a specific way.
No. It's the interpretation of my response.

You're editorialising. The words in bold are yours, not NIST's. When processes are progressing over a finite period of time
I did not state that events cannot overlap. I stated that the intention of the NIST text was clearly to describe a sequence of events. Over a finite period of time, yes.

it's not only possible but perfectly reasonable for a process to trigger another process
Sequential, yes.

yet for both to be occurring at the same time.
Yes.

The above is a perfect example; as the centre of the south wall buckled, load was
leading to
redistributed to the core, then
leading to
as the buckling progressed outwards the redistribution of load increased.

It's your interpretation that one process had to be completed before the other commenced; NIST says no such thing.
I said no such thing.

"Progressive" and "simultaneous" are not antonyms.
Agreed.
 
NIST gives the state of the various building systems in their report.
The FEA predicted state, yes.

over time
Yes. Sequential.

They were all happening at the same time.
Possibly.

The visible buckling of the ext columns wasn't the cause of the collapse.
The IB region columns didn't buckle. The panel connections failed.

It was the visible result of all these things hapening at the same time period.
Eh ?

But your conspiracy addled brain cannot see it as such. No surprise there...
Ah.
 
Yes. Sequential.

No. NIST gives time stamps. It was all happening at the same time.


Possibly.

No. Absolutely. Much in the same way that any tilt of the top MUST result in some descent.


The IB region columns didn't buckle. The panel connections failed.

Ok, the ext columns buckled until they reached a degree that the connections failed.



The slow buckling (IB) is the visible result of all the load transfers, core shortening, etc that was going on.

It is not rational to say that IB and slow downward movement (over minutes) can happen without the cores also slowly failing little by little.



Yes.

Ah.
 
No. NIST gives time stamps. It was all happening at the same time.
...
Dave Rogers said:
"Progressive" and "simultaneous" are not antonyms.
.

femr2 said:
(They were all happening at the same time. ) Possibly.
No. Absolutely.
No. When, for example, the perimeter panel connections fail, and the columns spring back, the action of IB is no longer ocurring. When a column buckles...

Much in the same way that any tilt of the top MUST result in some descent.
About which point ?

The slow buckling (IB) is the visible result of all the load transfers, core shortening, etc that was going on.
The NIST suggested mechanism is improbable geometrically. Internal deformation was not visible, but predicted from FEA.

It is not rational to say that IB and slow downward movement (over minutes)
Movement of what ?

can happen without the cores also slowly failing little by little.
Elements of, or all of, at definitely separate points in time, of course. How much ? Depends upon the mechanism of IB and perimeter steel behaviour.
 
Edited by Tricky: 
Edited for rule 12.
 
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No. When, for example, the perimeter panel connections fail, and the columns spring back, the action of IB is no longer ocurring.

For that specific panel. Other panels can be buckling as one unloads.

And I'll reiterate my point: your use of the words "following" and "subsequent to" is not taken from the content of the NIST report, but from your interpretation of that content. You're quite blatantly trying to give the impression that consequent events cannot proceed in parallel with the events that cause them by juxtaposing those words with "As a result of" and "A consequence of", by implicitly suggesting that the four are synonyms. It's not a particularly subtle linguistic trick, and nobody's fooled by it.

Dave
 
For that specific panel. Other panels can be buckling as one unloads.
Yes, though, again, very few panels buckled. They sprang back when the connections failed. The simplified term IB begins and ends in many separate places and points in time.

And I'll reiterate my point: your use of the words "following" and "subsequent to" is not taken from the content of the NIST report, but from your interpretation of that content.
Yes.

You're quite blatantly trying to give the impression that consequent events cannot proceed in parallel with the events that cause them by juxtaposing those words with "As a result of" and "A consequence of", by implicitly suggesting that the four are synonyms.
(bolding mine)

Not at all, and specifically said so several times in recent posts. I even quoted you in response to SB...
Dave Rogers said:
"Progressive" and "simultaneous" are not antonyms.

I am making the very simple point about the initiation of each event, which MUST be separated by some finite amount of time. Are you REALLY suggesting that all events in the SEQUENCE began at the same exact instant ?

I really hope not. Doesn't have to be a big slice of time Dave, but it does have to be above zero.

It's not a particularly subtle linguistic trick, and nobody's fooled by it.

Dave
A mind-numbingly bizarre thing to say.

Again, it is your interpretation which is in error, not the content of my post.

Recall the point of the discussion, again, the NIST initiation sequence...

NIST said:
With continuously increased bowing, as more columns buckled, the entire width of the south wall buckled inward. Instability started at the center of the south wall and rapidly progressed horizontally toward the sides.
Few perimeter panels buckled. Instead, they sprang back when the panel connections failed. Not a great start. This phase of their described process occurs itself over a period of time. There is a sequence of separate events ocurring from centre of facade outwards towards the corner.

They go on to describe progression along east and west perimeter, followed by increased load on the core...global collapse ensued.

Now then, I get the impression that you're not happy about the sequence I originally posted...

1) South face failure, followed rapidly by...
2) South to North core and East/West perimeter failure, followed rapidly by...
3) North face failure.

Could you explain *tipping* of the cap in a scenario where these events all occur at the same time please ?

Could you explain to me how the North face can fail at the same instant as the South face ?

We can SEE progression from South to North...
femrnew.gif


It may also be useful if you could explain your own viewpoint on the cause of IB. It would be especially useful to describe the required geometrical deformations, and their scale. That would include the curvature of a floor assembly, the displacement of CC ranges and the maximum achievable IB as a result.
 
Now then, I get the impression that you're not happy about the sequence I originally posted...

1) South face failure, followed rapidly by...
2) South to North core and East/West perimeter failure, followed rapidly by...
3) North face failure.

No, I'm simply pointing out that you're being overly dogmatic about insisting that these are sequential and that no parts of them can be simultaneous. Each of these is a process, and there is no reason to expect that any one process had progressed to completion before any other process commenced.

Could you explain *tipping* of the cap in a scenario where these events all occur at the same time please ?

Each failure occurs at a point where deformation exceeds the elastic limit. Prior to that point, deformations can still occur; in fact, they must. Working out which deformations will reach the failure point first, in a scenario where the entire structure is deforming with different parts deforming in different ways, is an extremely complicated thing to do, and won't be achieved by laymen arguing on a discussion forum. It needs the sort of analytical tools available to NIST, and not (currently) to you or me.

But it should be obvious that all these events are occurring at the same time. For any one part of the structure to fail, deformations must be taking place to the remainder of the structure; it's a geometrical necessity. As the perimeter columns start to bow inwards, the distance between their endpoints is reduced, so the length of one face of the tower is shorter than that of the opposite face. This must result in deformations in the rest of the structure, even before any bowing columns have reached failure. Therefore, all the processes resulting in failure are taking place simultaneously, even though the failures of specific elements are not.

You're trying to break a complex process down into a neatly-separated sequence of isolated steps. Real life isn't that simple.

Dave
 
No, I'm simply pointing out that you're being overly dogmatic about insisting that these are sequential and that no parts of them can be simultaneous.
No, I've clearly stated there is no reason why events cannot overlap. I do, however, make the point that sequential events within a process definition must be separated by finite amounts of time.

Each of these is a process, and there is no reason to expect that any one process had progressed to completion before any other process commenced.
Of course. Why are you stuck on this point ? I've stated several times, and again just above, that there's no reason why processes cannot overlap. Indeed each *event* discussed is of course made-up of an almost infinite number of smaller discrete events, beginning and ending at various points in time.

Each failure occurs at a point where deformation exceeds the elastic limit.
Event and process dependant. Elastic limit of most perimeter panels was not exceeded, as they did not buckle.

Prior to that point, deformations can still occur; in fact, they must.
Please be more specific. Deformation of what ? I agree that all deformation has a global effect, though it may be negligibly small.

Working out which deformations will reach the failure point first, in a scenario where the entire structure is deforming with different parts deforming in different ways, is an extremely complicated thing to do, and won't be achieved by laymen arguing on a discussion forum.
Not entirely true Dave. It's really not too difficult to, say, determine a timing between any suggested south face failure and subsequent north face failure. As I said, and included visual cueing for, we can SEE the south to north progression occur over a finite eriod of time.

Care to suggest a timing ?

It needs the sort of analytical tools available to NIST, and not (currently) to you or me.
I don't agree. The simple GIF provided above contains useful information. LS-Dyna is in the building also.

But it should be obvious that all these events are occurring at the same time.
South face failure and north face failure are not, for a start.

For any one part of the structure to fail, deformations must be taking place to the remainder of the structure; it's a geometrical necessity.
There's no problem going into more detail, and sure (for many situations tho not all), however, it's clear that any suggestion that south and north perimeter failed simultaneously is nonsense.

As the perimeter columns start to bow inwards, the distance between their endpoints is reduced, so the length of one face of the tower is shorter than that of the opposite face. This must result in deformations in the rest of the structure, even before any bowing columns have reached failure. Therefore, all the processes resulting in failure are taking place simultaneously, even though the failures of specific elements are not.
To a certain extent, though you are treating the global structure as non-rigid, and the local elements (perimeter columns) as rigid. If you are going to delve down into lower levels of detail, then your response should be that you think core deformation caused IB and that as far as you are concerned initiation occurred (x) minutes previously. OR you'd need to be clear about differentiating between an elemnt undergoing deformation and an element failing. The described NIST initation sequence focusses upon failures, not gradual deformations. South perimeter *failure* preceeds north perimeter *failure*.

You're trying to break a complex process down into a neatly-separated sequence of isolated steps.
Not particularly. The intention is to delve into more detail, but there must be a start point in discussion and kind of basic agreement about general sequence.

That could easily boil down to...

Dave, did core failure cause IB, or did IB cause core failure ?

Which face failed first, south or north ?

Did all core columns fail instantly and simultaneously, or did failure propogate from one area to another over a period of time ?

Real life isn't that simple.
Very true.
 
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femr2 said:
I do, however, make the point that sequential events within a process definition must be separated by finite amounts of time.
A clarification :)

The initiation/start of sequential events within a process definition must be separated by finite amounts of time.
 
Yes. a reasonably finite amount of time between cause and effect.

With so little tilt angle it is as if the 500 row core columns and the 1000 row core columns give out at about the same time. If we look at drop curves of the SW corner fire and the NW corner we see only about .5 seconds between failures.

How can a natural buckling progression shoot through the whole core so quickly? Exact same thing for WTC7. It seems as if a large section of the core drops as if failures of the core columns are happening almost simultaneously.

Could the NIST have noticed how very quickly failure must have propagated through the whole core to make the drop witnessed? NO! They show this by how badly they screwed up the angle over which the initial failures occurred. They didn't have a clue that many, many core columns must be failing at almost the same time. Same with WTC7, the simulation of WTC7 looks nothing like the actual building.
The order of and speed of the initial column failure sequence must have been very different in reality.

With WTC7 they show once again that they have no clue how the core columns originally failed.
 
How can a natural buckling progression shoot through the whole core so quickly?

You obviously have a detailed engineering explanation that shows it should have taken longer, thereby proving that 9/11 was an inside job, right?

No?

You have nothing but your incredulity?

Shocking......
 
Even if you allow many thing to happen at the same time, what the heck is going on in that gif?

If we assume that the row of ejections is due to air being pushed out from between the first floor slab to move and the one under it, which floor slab is falling at that time?

Recall that the OOS study in the OP divides a typical floor into 10 sections. The OOS flooring is divided into 8 sections according to region.

If the ejections are along floor 98, can we assume that the 99th floor slab must be moving downward to cause it?

Because the ejections are forceful and even, do we assume that the OOS west region slab is falling? What about the core flooring? Is it possible that the 99th core floor slab is causing the ejections and not the 99th floor OOS west slab?

How can the OOS west floor slab fall so evenly if neither the SW corner or the NW corner of the perimeter have started to move downwards yet? It is attached to the perimeter, you know.

Could it be slab movement within the core is causing these first ejections and not the OOS west slab?
 
How can a natural buckling progression shoot through the whole core so quickly?


How can it not do so? What would slow it down?

In the movies, when the heroes are clinging to a failing rope or to a collapsing scaffold, it always breaks one piece at a time. As each scaffold strut or strand of rope breaks, the heroes get a frightening jolt but manage to hang on, and the next strut or strand takes up the load for a while before it too breaks.

This occurs because it gives the heroes (or villains) just enough time to escape. Not because it has any plausible basis in reality.

9/11 occurred in the real world, where it is expected that when connections or members became overloaded, they failed immediately. They did not pause for dramatic effect. The heroes did not have time to escape.

Respectfully,
Myriad
 
How can it not do so? What would slow it down?

In the movies, when the heroes are clinging to a failing rope or to a collapsing scaffold, it always breaks one piece at a time. As each scaffold strut or strand of rope breaks, the heroes get a frightening jolt but manage to hang on, and the next strut or strand takes up the load for a while before it too breaks.

This occurs because it gives the heroes (or villains) just enough time to escape. Not because it has any plausible basis in reality.

9/11 occurred in the real world, where it is expected that when connections or members became overloaded, they failed immediately. They did not pause for dramatic effect. The heroes did not have time to escape.

Respectfully,
Myriad

But look at the progressive collapse in WTC7. How did all four widely seperated corners drop at the same time ?
 
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Even if you allow many thing to happen at the same time, what the heck is going on in that gif?

If we assume that the row of ejections is due to air being pushed out from between the first floor slab to move and the one under it, which floor slab is falling at that time?

Recall that the OOS study in the OP divides a typical floor into 10 sections. The OOS flooring is divided into 8 sections according to region.

If the ejections are along floor 98, can we assume that the 99th floor slab must be moving downward to cause it?

Because the ejections are forceful and even, do we assume that the OOS west region slab is falling? What about the core flooring? Is it possible that the 99th core floor slab is causing the ejections and not the 99th floor OOS west slab?

How can the OOS west floor slab fall so evenly if neither the SW corner or the NW corner of the perimeter have started to move downwards yet? It is attached to the perimeter, you know.

Could it be slab movement within the core is causing these first ejections and not the OOS west slab?

You obviously have a detailed engineering explanation that shows it should have taken longer, thereby proving that 9/11 was an inside job, right?

No?

You have nothing but your incredulity?

Shocking......
 
You have nothing but your incredulity?
Do you have answers to the questions posed in the post you were responding to ? I suggest they will be repeated until a general concensus is reached, so you might as well thnk it through...
 
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