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Amanda Knox guilty - all because of a cartwheel

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I neglected to post an info-box earlier this afternoon when I moved nearly four dozen posts to Abandon All Hope, so I'm putting this mod-box here at the top of the page, so that it is readily seen. Even after a fourth mod-box in this thread yesterday, it appears that the message "didn't take". So, let me be perfectly clear: any further breaches of the MA, personalization of arguments, bickering, derails, etc., will be infracted and if members cannot remain civil, the thread may be put on moderated status and/or suspensions may follow.
Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: LashL
Oh, really? So, her accusation of Patrick was really just to help the Police? Are you sure? Her responses of "I don't know" to the question of "Who did you send this text message to?" was really just to help the Police with their interrogation techniques?

Most people would term that "Deflection" or "Stone-walling" or even could be considered "Obstruction of Investigation"...
Hi Bobthedonkey,
In my opinion, the interrogators "cracked" Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito pretty easily, playing one against the other, good cop/bad cop, "helping to remember", etc...

Think about it for a second, you've lived a sheltered life away from hardend street people and thugs, and moved far away to go to school. Your roommate is murdered and you of course try to help the police. And then suddenly they turn on you and attack you, accusing YOU of the murder.
Amanda Knox must have been sooo easy to crack!
Hmmm?..
RWVBWL
 
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It's invented conjecture not supported by a single shred of evidence. It comes over simply as desperation by Knox supporters now happy to invent all sorts of theories, no matter how outlandish, to try and convince themselves just as much as any reading public that Amanda is innocent.

What you do is you get your evidence first, then you construct logical theories from it. The FOA do it the other way around, they invent their theories and then hope like hell that eventually something will turn up to support it. In the meantime, they are only too happy to replace the evidence they don't have with assertions and innuendo and hope that somebody somewhere buys it.

Fulcannelli, sometimes you reveal yourself so obviously, it is true wonder you're not aware of it. Ah well, ignorance is bliss.
 
This seems a logical explanation. If only statements made under arrest can be used against someone in a court of law then I agree the Police were right in arresting Patrick instead of bringing him in for questioning. They had a pretty convincing (to them) eyewitness testimony and this gave reasonable grounds for arrest.

Why would the police need a statement from Patrick as evidence of his involvement in the crime?

I'd really like to know because I deal with a situation whereby my partner is a very experienced lawyer, some criminal work, who fiercely believes Amanda is innocent yet refuses to read any more information on the case than the few articles he's read, such as Egan's, and anything else on CNN or a select few British news sites. He lacks indepth knowledge of the evidence or testimony yet insists she is innocent based on his gut instinct due to his law background etc. Frankly speaking, we can no longer discuss the case because he thinks his background trumps any indepth research I've tried to do and I do read both sides all the time. He always has a pat answer for anything I find troubling about the case and it really reminds me of the way I've seen evidence dismissed by the "innocent" side at times without real skeptical analysis.

Amanda's supporters have skeptically analyzed till the cows came home. You might believe your partner lacks indepth knowledge, but most of the guilters believe that about the innocentisti as a general rule. What you are interpreting as pat answers may very well be the truth.
 
Hi Agatha,
The "evidence" or their professional "theory"?
Hmmm...
RWVBWL

Their professional theory, as they have admitted. No evidence against them existed until after the arrests.

Great new photo, RWVBWL!
 
When Fulcanelli wrote this, I thought that he surely must have been speaking about the police investigation: "they invent their theories and then hope like hell that eventually something will turn up to support it."...
But that's just my opinion.
RWVBWL
 
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As a woman with lots of personal experience (30 plus years of dealing with "the big red beast") I can tell you that no woman, upon seeing a very small amount of blood on a faucet, would assume it was someone having an accident with their period.

Do accidents happen? Sure, but it is highly unlikely that the amount of blood on the bath mat would go unoticed by a woman having her period.

I wrote a long comment on this a couple weeks ago. Blood in the bathroom is much more common today than it was in "our day," Alt+4, especially among young women. The subject is no longer tabu and neither is the blood.

As for not noticing the blood, a whole bunch of people didn't notice several bloody footprints in the hallway.

Matthew's insight is correct: "The question now is what percentage of women, on seeing a very small amount of blood on a faucet would assume a grisly murder had taken place elsewhere in the premises?"
 
The question now is what percentage of women, on seeing a very small amount of blood on a faucet would assume a grisly murder had taken place elsewhere in the premises?
LOL

Well, as a woman of about Filomena's age (and thus admittedly with fewer years experience of "the big red beast" than Alt+F4), my first thought about blood in the bathroom in a house shared by four women would be that it was menstrual blood. A grisly murder somewhere on the premises would be down in at least second place.

And in third, probably a nose bleed.
 
I would assume none. In fact, considering that it was around noon and Meredith's door was locked (as Amanda believed it usually was when she wasn't home) there was no reason to think anything bad had happened to her. Yet in Raffaele's phone call to the police he emphasizes that Meredith is missing and her bedroom door is locked.

Consider the events that happened between the time of Amanda's first visit to the cottage and Raffaele's phone call to 112.

Amanda had tried to call Meredith without success. Amanda had called Filomena who also didn't know where Meredith was. Amanda and Raffaele had noticed the broken window and state of Filomena's room. They had knocked on Meredith's door in an attempt to wake her. They had tried the door and found out it was locked and saw blood on the door handle. Each one of these events raised their concern for Meredith.

If Amanda presumed murder after seeing only the blood of the faucet, I suspect this would also be seen that as proof of guilt. Normal people would just assume the blood was from a nosebleed or a minor cut. Only someone who knew there had been a murder would start out thinking homicide.
 
The wonderful world of DNA

BobTheDonkey,

Here are some of your comments about DNA and my replies.

“It's really not that simple, however. Sure, the bra clasp handling was less than proper. HOWEVER, that in and of itself does not provide a means for contamination of a level we see on the clasp. That is paramount to the contamination discussion.” (message #11257, p. 282)

Your argument implies that you would not throw out a given piece of evidence solely on the basis of bad handling. One problem with this point of view is that there is no disincentive for carelessness in your system. Rules become only suggestions. Why should the technicians take the trouble to do it right if they are not held accountable when they do it wrong?

“If we accept that contamination did happen to the clasp DNA, then why is Sollecito's DNA in a higher concentration than that of anyone who had much more access to the room than Raffaele? Why is it Raffaele's DNA and not any of the investigators/forensics teams/roommates of Meredith who either had reason to be in Meredith's room or directly had contact (albeit, wearing gloves, etc) with the clasp.” (message #11257, p. 282)

Your only source for arguing that the amount of DNA was too large to be the result of contamination is Stefanoni, who does not publish any original research in DNA forensics. Can you find a literature citation that supports your argument? On the other hand, I have provided information from those who do publish, and they contradict Stefanoni’s claim, which you are repeating. Moreover, you are sidestepping the fact that Raffaele’s profile was at least sixfold lower in concentration than Meredith’s profile. There is no reason to draw a conclusion out of Raffaele’s profile being higher than that of the three unknown depositors while simultaneously ignoring why it is lower than Meredith’s.

“And, yet, the DNA profile from the knife is an incredibly close match to Meredith's. So are you claiming contamination? If so, where?” (message #11505, p. 285)

“Look, we've been over this time and again on this thread. There is absolutely no reliable source of contamination for the clasp and/or knife. None. The closest you can come up with is "contamination in the lab". And that's ignoring that the equipment used to test the knife had never been used before. And ignoring (ironically enough) that there was a 46 day lag between when the cigarette and other sources of Raffaele's DNA were collected and when the clasp was collected.” (message #12107, p. 303)

“So, if there were only two pieces of evidence/swabs from the cottage that contained Raffaele's DNA, how did the contamination occur?” (message #12028, p. 301).

With respect to the knife, the citations I have previously given indicate that Meredith’s reference sample and other pieces of evidence with her DNA are plausible sources for contamination. The document Charlie provided shows that there were many items in the lab with Meredith’s DNA (http://www.friendsofamanda.org/selected_dna_test_results.pdf). There was no blood on the knife, and there was no evidence of other cells. Unless one believes in magic cleaning fluid that can remove blood cells but not other cells, contamination is the only reasonable explanation for the DNA on the knife.

With respect to the bra clasp, your argument falsely equates the objects that were found to have Raffaele’s DNA with all objects that had his DNA. Upthread katy_did noted that one or more towels would have had his DNA if he had washed there (he cooked for Amanda there, IIRC, so it is reasonable to assume that he washed his hands there). Any single sample from a towel might or might not show his DNA, depending on where it was sampled.

One route of in-lab contamination would be for the technician to handle the cigarette butt then to handle the clasp. A magnifying lamp was shown to pick up DNA in one study. Another problem with your comment is that it ignores the fact that DNA persists (see below).

“However, no explanation for how that contamination happened in this case has been forthcoming.” (message #10154, page 254)

“All you can do is provide bare assertions. Can you provide a plausible means of contamination for the bra clasp? Where was the primary transfer, Bruce? Where was the secondary? Can you provide a study where tertiary and quaternary transfer was validated? Then you have no real argument against the bra clasp.

“Moving on to the knife. The memo I was provided by one of you guys and subsequently quoted included a study from 2002 (I believe it was 2002) that indicated a full DNA profile could be recovered from a single cell using LCN processes. Given that there were more than a single cell and Stefanoni has been performing LCN testing for a number of years, there is no reason to suspect the DNA on the knife is not Meredith's. The only argument you have been able to provide is contamination - and yet when pressed, are unable to provide a plausible contamination scenario. Especially when we take into account that the knife was tested on a machine that had not been used before. Additionally, one of the suspects verified the likelihood of Meredith's blood on the knife, providing a completely implausible scenario for it's presence. So why should the knife evidence not be considered valid?” (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=5958420&postcount=13)

Do you have evidence that the machine had not been used before? Fulcanelli asserted this without backing it up. Can you document that Stefanoni’s lab was properly equipped? “The site of this bespoke laboratory is remote from other DNA Units, operates stringent entry requirements, is fitted with positive air pressure and specialist lighting and chemical treatments to minimize DNA contamination.” http://www.cps.gov.uk/publications/prosecution/lcn_testing.html

LCN is done with at least two replicates, and only those alleles that show up in both runs are scored: “In low-copy-number profiling, forensic scientists generally split their limited amount of DNA into two or three samples and run analyses on two of them. The third, if available, is reserved for the defence. The results of analyses aren’t completely reproducible, profiles often won’t match and the scientists generally accept as true those STR signals that show up in both runs.” Nature (London) 464(7287):347-8 (2010), emphasis added. We can have a lively debate about the science behind using duplicate analyses, but what is not disputed is that Stefanoni didn’t do one. In addition, her pseudo-LCN technique has not yet been scrutinized in a peer-reviewed journal.

Your position is that contamination must be proved by a specific route. This is in opposition to everything I have read (http://www.scientific.org/tutorials/articles/riley/riley.html). If your standard were adhered to, the contamination defense could not be used even in cases where it has happened. A specific route was not found in the Leskie case, nor in the case of Farah Jama, both of which I have previously documented. Here is another link on the Jama case:
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/lawreport/stories/2010/2895256.htm

Reagent blank (negative) controls can sometimes detect contamination, just not always. When assuming that contamination did not occur leads to an absurdity, then one accepts that DNA contamination has occurred, such as in the Mixer case:
http://www.garyisinnocent.org/web/CaseHistory/NewDNAFindings/tabid/58/Default.aspx
In many instances of contamination evidentiary items were processed at the same time. Yet, Dr. Theodore Kessis stated, “It must be noted however that contamination errors have been documented where no direct processing link between sample and contaminant have been established, raising the specter that a source of contamination can linger in a laboratory for some time.”

“I trust Stefanoni” (message #4895, p.123).
Even though she said that skin cells don’t contain DNA? Even though she made an inference about how the kitchen knife was used from the place where she found DNA on the handle, an inference I have not seen from any other forensic scientist? These are some of the reasons I do not.

But the problem with your statement is more general than whether or not one trusts a particular laboratory. Your position amounts to this: when the prosecutor walks into a courtroom and says I have DNA evidence, you want to give the jurors permission to shut their brains off. I don’t.

halides1
 
Consider the events that happened between the time of Amanda's first visit to the cottage and Raffaele's phone call to 112.

Amanda had tried to call Meredith without success. Amanda had called Filomena who also didn't know where Meredith was. Amanda and Raffaele had noticed the broken window and state of Filomena's room. They had knocked on Meredith's door in an attempt to wake her. They had tried the door and found out it was locked and saw blood on the door handle. Each one of these events raised their concern for Meredith.

If Amanda presumed murder after seeing only the blood of the faucet, I suspect this would also be seen that as proof of guilt. Normal people would just assume the blood was from a nosebleed or a minor cut. Only someone who knew there had been a murder would start out thinking homicide.

I don't think they saw blood on the door handle did they? I thought the blood was only on the inside handle.
 
Charlie Wilkes said:
For example, the TMB test on the knife blade definitively ruled out the presence of blood.

Incorrect. As Judge Massei made clear in his report, the sensitivity of the blood test is not able to detect blood below a certain level. It therefore cannot say the material on the knife for certain is not blood, only with certainty that there is no blood above a certain level. He also points out that almost all the material on the knife was removed to test for DNA leaving none to be tested for blood. Therefore, all that can be said with certainty is that no blood was detected on the knife, not that the origin of Merediths was certainly not from blood.

Charlie Wilkes said:
Also, no blood was found in Sollecito's apartment, other than luminol reactions which were not confirmed to be blood,

It can safely stated to be blood, since bleach can be ruled out...since Raffaele's cleaner never used bleach.

Charlie Wilkes said:
A number of items involve terminology, like whether Meredith's throat was slashed. Steve has no reason to mislead the public about such matters.

Nobody's saying he's deliberately attempting to mislead. It is being argued and has been shown, that he is simply ignorant of the facts of the case.
 
That would be correct. In that interview that Mary_H suggested never happened Raffaele said they were concerned because she never locked her door.


Based on court testimony from the friends of Filomena who broke down the door, the interview was actually with one of them, not with Raffaele. Filomena believed Meredith never locked her door, so Filomena's friends probably got that from her.
 
Mary H said:
Their professional theory, as they have admitted. No evidence against them existed until after the arrests.

Of course, it was only three days after the discovery of the crime. The evidence took a long time to go through, the tests took a long time to get done and come back, the huge amount of witnesses (sometimes more then once) interviewed took a long time to interview and their evidence sifted and put together. You've been watching too many episodes of CSI. It's only on TV cases are started, investigayed and concluded inside 45 minutes.
 
Kestrel said:
Amanda had tried to call Meredith without success. Amanda had called Filomena who also didn't know where Meredith was. Amanda and Raffaele had noticed the broken window and state of Filomena's room. They had knocked on Meredith's door in an attempt to wake her. They had tried the door and found out it was locked and saw blood on the door handle. Each one of these events raised their concern for Meredith.

A concern for Amanda which suddenly no longer existed when the Postal Police and Filomena arrived. In fact, Massei makes much of this in his report and it is clear it was one of the central reasons for the guilty verdict.
 
It can safely stated to be blood, since bleach can be ruled out...since Raffaele's cleaner never used bleach.
Wow, that's quite a claim. Why do you think the prosecution never tried to argue it was blood, then? In fact, the report says the following:

The visit of 13 November to the apartment used by Raffaele Sollecito did not give significant results. [...] . In the kitchen entrance luminol had highlighted five samples found all negative except the DNA profile of an unknown individual. [p205]
 
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