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UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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You still need to prove they were 100% accurate in their description in order to bolster your claim that what they saw was something exotic. Otherwise, there is the potential for error (witnesses do make mistakes). As a result, we have to conclude that it is more likely that the witnesses think they were seeing a "disc" when they were actually seeing something else (see Catalina Island case for example). Of course, you could prove they were 100% right by establishing the fact that such a craft existed.

BTW, if witnesses are so reliable, why did highly trained and experienced Japanese pilots during the Battle of Coral Sea confuse an oiler for an aircraft carrier? The oiler had no air cover and the search planes could examine it at their leisure with binoculars. For some reason they still could not figure out that it was not an aircraft carrier. As a result of this error, their inaccurate observations caused their commander to launch an air attack on the wrong target.

So you confirm the point I made that you need to assert the veracity of the assertion The eyewitnesses are wrong 100% of the time..

However you don’t address the issue of whether it is a plausible assertion. In fact it is an impossibility for the assertion to be correct according to your own principles. The most obvious is that if the assertion were true, then there is no such thing as observed reality. Now while this might entertain philospophers in a serious debate about the possibility (brains in vats being fed “experiences” being the exemplar), I don’t think that anyone – least of all the UFO debunkers – would deny objective (observed) reality. Yet denial of objectivbe reality is precisely the implication if you are to uphold the truth of the assertion.

However, it IS interesting in that the way you frame it, because you make it seem like it is ME who makes some kind of “100%” infallibility assertion! All along I have claimed (and repeat again) that the eyewitnesses DO make errors of judgement and it is those very errors that we can use as tools in our determination of the veracity of UFO reports. For example perceptual research tells us that distance estimates in a clear blue sky are error prone. Thus if we have five witnesses (as in Rogue River) reporting the distance similarly, then we would consider we might have a problem, because, according to research, they should not be able to be consistent. If they were, then we would suspect they were not independent and had somehow collaborated and this would throw the story into doubt. However, when the estimates vary – as they DO – then that adds veracity to their descriptions of events. Thus, far from claiming that the witnesses are “100% accurate” I note the research evidence that in fact, under certain conditions and in certain circumstances they most definitely should NOT be accurate (!) and more, we can positively USE that research to determine the veracity of the accounts.

So when you state there are cases of mistaken identity (such as you do) what you leave out of your “account” of those cases are the circumstances and conditions that caused the mistaken identity in the first place - and thus you fail to learn WHAT conditions and circumstances cause such mistakes and thus fail to be able to understand if those conditions might or might not apply in any new case you might examine. That is, you believe the unfounded generalisation The eyewitnesses are wrong 100% of the time. and thus, by ignoring a large body of research evidence, you are never able to determine when witnesses MAY be incorrect and when they MAY be perfectly accurate. Simply, I use perceptual error to inform, you use it to obscure.
 
Yeah. But you and I are UFO eyewitnesses. We have an advantage - we know that at least one eyewitness is right.

Yes, thank you, you are correct - we do have the advantage of knowing rather than being reliant on belief. However, science also gives us a way of "knowing" without needing to have direct experience - and that is by a rational presentation and analysis of evidence - and it is the evidence that the UFO debunkers ignore in order to maintain their beliefs.
 
I'm a UFO witness. My brother is a UFO witness, he said he saw a luminous ring in the night sky steadly moving, until he lost it behind a mountain. Now, man-made aircraft are not ring-shaped, right?. But neither of us have proclaimed a close encounter of the second kind, or whatever kind. Why?, because in both cases there wasn't enough information for us to assess the sighting, there weren't enough elements to see the whole picture. We both saw just bits of the movie. That's it, end of story.

Why should it be (paraphrasing) the end of the story? What IS it that prevents your curiosity from wondering what that "ring" might have been? Is it simply a matter of a belief that It is impossible, therefore it cannot be...?". As you state, no man-made craft is "ring shaped" so what was it?

Aren't you the least but curious?
And what are you doing in THIS thread?
Could it be that you ARE looking for answers...?
 
I too am a UFO eyewitness. I've seen an object in the sky that I could not identify. It was late at night, and the object, whatever it was, passed within 50 feet or so of me. It was metallic and very shiny, like stainless steel. It had one very bright white light on it. It passed over my parents' house (I was about 17 at the time) and moved down the hill and out of sight.

To this day, I don't know what it was. I'm quite sure, though, that the answer doesn't involve extraterrestrials.

How DO you know that it "doesn't involve extraterrestrials"?
What does it involve then?
 
... you make it seem like it is ME who makes some kind of “100%” infallibility assertion! ...you believe the unfounded generalisation The eyewitnesses are wrong 100% of the time.

Compare and contrast the following assertions;

"Eyewitnesses are 100% wrong, 100% of the time."
"Eyewitnesses are not 100% right, 100% of the time."

Do either of these match the assertion you ascribe to AP? It might help to reduce ambiguity.

Consider the witnesses at Rogue River. In terms of their description of the object they saw and its size, shape, distance, elevation, speed etc it's not a matter of "right" or "wrong" but the degree to which they correctly interpreted, recalled and described what they witnessed.

A completely reasonable cause of their sighting is a blimp. Your steadfast, tedious denial of this possibility is tiresome, and it's not persuading anyone at all.
 
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And what are you doing in THIS thread?
Could it be that you ARE looking for answers...?

Trying out Limbo's technique of telling people what they're thinking?

Anyway, what would anyone looking for answers hope to find in this thread? (Other than a very, very thorough dismantling of some old UFO cases.)
 
1. I haven't seen any UFO debunkers around here. Everyone seems to agree that UFO's exist.
You “agree” that UFMOs (Unidentified Flying Mundane objects) exist, not UFOs.

1. Perfect viewing conditions
On a warm may day there is heat haze which makes detailed observations of objects in the distance very hard. Everyone knows this.
Heat haze is a localised ground effect that does not apply when looking up at any appreciable angle and also does not apply over water – both of which circumstances were apparent in the Rogue River case. So no heat haze. Next…

2. Five witnesses
They were all in the same boat and had ampel time to discuss the sighting among themselves. How could that affect their statements?
Their statements would have been more consistent in things like size and distance for a start. That these were NOT consistent among the witnesses adds veracity to the assertion that they did not collaborate.


3. Using binoculars
All 5 witnesses were in the same boat, on a river. That's not a stable observation platform and any movement will be amplified by the binoculars as will the heat haze problems. I can also add that the quality of optics then was not the same as it is today. It's 60 years ago remember?
So the claim here is that 60 years ago the Navy could not employ contractors to grind lenses accurately for their binoculars. Rubbish! Pure and simple…

Also, why did the Navy ever issue binoculars if no useful observations could be made through them from boats. Again, your contention is pure and simple rubbish.

4. A circular object
The witnesses saw, and described, an oval sillouette. They INTERPRETED it as being a circular object seen from an angle. That interpretation can be wrong. They draw pictures that looks a lot like a blimp.

The presentation of the object was an ellipse. Yes, they interpreted it as “circular” (analogous to a coin) because in all the changes of direction it made, the aspect remained the same - elliptical! This most definitely would NOT have occurred if the object was a blimp. The witnesses meant to represent a circular object in their drawings – just as they described it.

Moreover, the witnesses described and drew the object in detail – your claim of “sillouette” (sic) is simply incorrect - in my opinion a deliberate attempt at misinformation.

5. Speed
Witnesses does not agree on speed and you can't really estimate that well if you don't know how far away an object is.
Sure, but you CAN provide “ball park” estimates based on previous experience. If they had stated a particular speed, then we might be concerned, but they gave a “ball park” estimate of jet plane speeds. …and again, the very fact that perhaps the speed estimates might vary again adds weight to the contention that there was no appreciable collaboration, thus adding another tick in the veracity column.
 
Yes, "The eyewitnesses are wrong 100% of the time" is the sort of argument which is so stupid that I believe no one with real scientific training would use, unless the person is being dishonest, has heavy bias, lost emotional control or his/hers training is of poor quality (or any combination of the former.

Take Rogue River, for example. Is there a single person here saying they've got it all wrong? Let’s check the eyewitnesses' descriptions (at least what they seem to agree) - what have they described?

1. Oval shape, interpreted as circular
2. Presence of a fin
3. Silver color
4. "Wrinkled" section along the middle
5. Silent

Let's consider the sum of characteristics 1 to 5 as "100%". Now, as far as I know, only part of item 1 (the interpretation as a circular object) is being challenged. Note also that what people here are actually saying is that the eyewitnesses may have been mistaken regarding their interpretation. One might also argue that item 5 is also being challenged, since we say it is possible that distance and wind direction (I would also add noise from the eyewitnesses' surroundings) may account for the noise of engines not having been heard. Now, it is up to Rramjet demonstrate how this can possibly be equal to eyewitnesses being 100% wrong.

This was one more strawman presented by Rramjet while trying to pose as scientist. He/she twisted, misrepresented the skeptics position attempting to create an emotional response from the readers. If I still were an UFO buff I would be ashamed by his methods. I believe witnessing to such obviously dishonest tactics is one of the reasons people became skeptical of UFOs. Go Rramjet, you are one of the best UFOlogy debunkers around!
 
Strawman. The rest of the wall of text has been ignored, since the opening statement is totally incorrect.

For the record, I have seen two UFOs in my life and at least one of the sightings was reported by hundreds of others as well as making a national newspaper. First was three green lights in the sky in the classic triangle formation, the most recent an unexplained fireball in broad daylight.

I am sorry, but you do not provide enough information in your "reports" for any reasonable assessment to be made. A fireball could be a meteor ... and I am sorry again, but "three green lights" does not make a "classic triangle formation". We need more information here.
 
Apologies for snipping the rest of your post – but we need to cut to the chase – that is your primary contention in the Rogue River case:

Let's consider the sum of characteristics 1 to 5 as "100%". Now, as far as I know, only part of item 1 (the interpretation as a circular object) is being challenged.

Okay – so then on what grounds IS it being challenged?
 
Apologies for snipping the rest of your post – but we need to cut to the chase – that is your primary contention in the Rogue River case:



Okay – so then on what grounds IS it being challenged?

So you admit finally to being a liar about skeptics claiming that witnesses are 100% wrong?
 
Compare and contrast the following assertions;

"Eyewitnesses are 100% wrong, 100% of the time."
"Eyewitnesses are not 100% right, 100% of the time."

Do either of these match the assertion you ascribe to AP? It might help to reduce ambiguity.
I believe that first assertion is similar to what AP is attempting to uphold but the precise assertion is ” The eyewitnesses are wrong 100% of the time”. I didn't think there was any ambiguity about that and THIS post describes my reasoning surrounding that.
.

Consider the witnesses at Rogue River. In terms of their description of the object they saw and its size, shape, distance, elevation, speed etc it's not a matter of "right" or "wrong" but the degree to which they correctly interpreted, recalled and described what they witnessed.

A completely reasonable cause of their sighting is a blimp. Your steadfast, tedious denial of this possibility is tiresome, and it's not persuading anyone at all.

Please enlighten us then on precisely HOW a "blimp" fits "circular (analogous to a coin), with silent motion (displaying variable aerial manoeuvrability in direction and speed) with the ability to move at the speed of a jet plane."

Moreover, considering the attributes of a blimp (overall shape, fins, gondola, noisy engines, large colourful advertising logo emblazoned on both sides), it would be totally implausible for the witnesses (all five of them!) to have missed a “blimp” for precisely what it was.
 
I am sorry, but you do not provide enough information in your "reports" for any reasonable assessment to be made. A fireball could be a meteor ... and I am sorry again, but "three green lights" does not make a "classic triangle formation". We need more information here.

Classic. Rramjet complains endlessly about how the people in his imagination dismiss all UFO witness accounts out of hand then, when presented with UFO witness accounts, he immediately dismisses them out of hand.
 
Please enlighten us then on precisely HOW a "blimp" fits "circular (analogous to a coin), with silent motion (displaying variable aerial manoeuvrability in direction and speed) with the ability to move at the speed of a jet plane."

Moreover, considering the attributes of a blimp (overall shape, fins, gondola, noisy engines, large colourful advertising logo emblazoned on both sides), it would be totally implausible for the witnesses (all five of them!) to have missed a “blimp” for precisely what it was.

You already asked exactly these questions, and I already answered. Go back through the previous times you copied and pasted the above and you should find it.
 
Why should it be (paraphrasing) the end of the story?


Because you've been shown to be lying through your teeth so often that nothing you say will ever give your garbage the slightest bit of creedence.

Your case isn't just dead, Rramjet, it's stinking the place up.


What IS it that prevents your curiosity from wondering what that "ring" might have been?


Tempting, but I think I'll leave that one alone, and instead, I'll ask you for the fourth time, why did you lie about the thread being closed?


Is it simply a matter of a belief that It is impossible, therefore it cannot be...?". As you state, no man-made craft is "ring shaped" so what was it?


A squid ring of course. Geeze Louise, keep up will you?


Aren't you the least but curious?


I am. Do you write this nonsense yourself, or do you have a team of five-year-olds working for you?


And what are you doing in THIS thread?


Pointing and laughing.


Could it be that you ARE looking for answers...?


Blimps are the only answer, Rramjet. And squids.

Our two only answers are blimps, squids and oil wells . . .

dammit​

Our three only answers . . .
 
So the claim here is that 60 years ago the Navy could not employ contractors to grind lenses accurately for their binoculars. Rubbish! Pure and simple…

Also, why did the Navy ever issue binoculars if no useful observations could be made through them from boats. Again, your contention is pure and simple rubbish.
Maybe you should read your own sources more carefully;

Mr B: ......
The object was then
examined through a pair of 8-power, Navy-type binoculars.
......
(bolding mine)

NOT navy binoculars, Navy-type binoculars. i.e. binoculars like the ones the navy use. Not ones the navy issue.

Or were you deliberately trying to slip one past us again, you know, like you did when you said that the "experts" at White Sands "took multiple images and triangulations", when in fact they only got one triangulation out from several attempts, despite my having pointed that out more than once before?
 
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