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World War Three Coming Soon?

You are acting as if Iranian support for Hezbollah was the rationale for an invasion. It isn't.
Please quote where I gave a rationale for an invasion, or supported an invasion. You won't do so, of course, because you're full of crap. I never said "Iranian support for Hezbollah was the rationale for an invasion".

First you dodged, now you lie.

As for how many deaths due to a simmering low-level conflict the US should accept before it steps in on its ally's behalf and invades a country, this is a different question altogether.
Once again you use the word "invade", and attribute it to me.

Should the US step in the next time Pakistan and India fire an artillery salvo at each other?
:rolleyes:

Whether or not you like to admit it, hostility in the Middle East towards Israel is partly Israel's own fault. Neither Hezbollah nor Hamas pose any kind of existential threat towards Israel, nor will they for the foreseeable future of reality.
And now you try to turn it into an Israel thread.

I'll ask again: So exactly how much control does Iran have to have over the Middle East before we should be concerned? How many deaths?
 
You are acting as if Iranian support for Hezbollah was the rationale for an invasion. It isn't.

As for how many deaths due to a simmering low-level conflict the US should accept before it steps in on its ally's behalf and invades a country, this is a different question altogether. Should the US step in the next time Pakistan and India fire an artillery salvo at each other? Whether or not you like to admit it, hostility in the Middle East towards Israel is partly Israel's own fault. Neither Hezbollah nor Hamas pose any kind of existential threat towards Israel, nor will they for the foreseeable future of reality.

Your turn.

By that logic, the US should have done nothing after 9/11, since Al Qaida did not pose a existential threat to the US.
 
How would you describe the overthrow of Obama enacted by Russia, so that America served Russian interests better?

Well, I would describe it as a silly straw man, and an admission of defeat on your part that the Iranian invasion of the US embassy and de-facto declaration of war was completely unjustifiable by previous US conduct.

Iran broke the rules, and got hammered for it. If they feel "persecuted" for the consequences of their rather blatant violation of international law, so be it. it's neither rational nor, frankly, is it any reason for the anyone to pay attention.

If I borrow your lawnmower and fail to return it, that does not justify your breaking into my house with a firearm and shooting at my family. In your subsequent trial for attempted murder, you may indeed feel "persecuted." Neither the prosecution, the judge, the jury, the jailer, nor the public at large will care.
 
Please quote where I gave a rationale for an invasion, or supported an invasion. You won't do so, of course, because you're full of crap. I never said "Iranian support for Hezbollah was the rationale for an invasion".

First you dodged, now you lie.

Harsh words, MILDCat!

Fine, bombing. You are acting as if Iranian support for Hezbollah was the rationale for bombing/grenading/shooting/torpedoeing/lighting on fire/using CIA weather machines to do earthquakes/ whateveritisyouthinktheUSarmedforcesshoulddo to Iran.

Way to split hairs.

SmilesCat said:
Once again you use the word "invade", and attribute it to me.




:rolleyes:

WildCat said:
And now you try to turn it into an Israel thread.
ORLY.
Who brung in Hezbollah?

MeanCat said:
I'll ask again: So exactly how much control does Iran have to have over the Middle East before we should be concerned?

23%.

How many deaths?

Again, the simmering conflict in Israel is not the issue here.
 
By that logic, the US should have done nothing after 9/11, since Al Qaida did not pose a existential threat to the US.

Please tell me how many Hezbollah rockets have landed in US cities.


And again:

Since the US should implicate itself in every military conflict around the world,

And since protecting civilians against repression is of such paramount importance,

And since genocide is the most abhorrent crime known to man,

How many burning kurdish villages constitute a genocide worthy of an air campaign?
 
Well, I would describe it as a silly straw man, and an admission of defeat on your part that the Iranian invasion of the US embassy and de-facto declaration of war was completely unjustifiable by previous US conduct.

Iran broke the rules, and got hammered for it. If they feel "persecuted" for the consequences of their rather blatant violation of international law, so be it. it's neither rational nor, frankly, is it any reason for the anyone to pay attention.

So if Iran hadn't of seized the embassy (something I agreed was a serious violation of protocol), America wouldn't have supported Saddam in the war?

Seems to me that geopolitics (as perceived in Washington) would have dictated the same course...
 
Piffle. Claiming that an understanding of motives is the equivalent of supporting them is an even older one, and far more dishonest.

I say I can understand why someone did something. You assert that is proof that I condone what they did. If you actually believe that then you have a stupid belief. If you do not then you are not sincere in your contributions to this discussion.

So. You pick. Are you stupid, or dishonest? You haven't left yourself any other alternatives.

QFT. I was gonna say something similar but you said it better.

The comic-book approach to international relations in America is a source of unending amusement.

Exhibit A: dudalb.

the lines about being "in league" with Iran or islamic fundamentalism more generally are silly abstractions and deserve no place in reasoned discourse.

You can do better I'm sure, and even if some part of your mind is thinking "got them there!", why not try refraining from the schoolyard taunts and see how that helps the discussion?

Really now, you didn't even use the "useful idiot" line, which at least puts posters like me and quadraginta in the role of being unknowing allies. Why you insist on pretending we are in actual alliance with those entities is kind of befuddling (though entertaining)... you don't really think that do you?
 
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I think better than I see attacks on Iran playing out, some scenarios of which end up at the same place anyway, just in a much deteriorated situation.

I do believe that deterrence theory applies to Iran just as much as it applies to other state actors, though I know that the idea that Iran is somehow willing to self-immolate has currency and may be a source of disagreement for us on this. I disagree with that premise.
 
Unless there's moral equivalency how can it be hypocrisy? It's only hypocrisy if you assume moral equivalency. Which you are doing, of course, even though you can't bring yourself to admit it.


I won't be tied to that whipping post, WildCat. Moral equivalency typically gets the slippery slope treatment, where its zealot adherents declare that because someone is doing the same thing as someone else, that they are on the whole basically just as bad (or just as good, though it's rarely used in good sense). Meanwhile, the zealot detractors seem to argue something along the lines of my country, right or wrong -- suggesting that when we do it, it's right, and when they do it, it's wrong. But while the absolute character of morality is debatable, hypocrisy can still be identified.

For instance, when criticized for deficit spending, Obama suggests that Bush was doing the same thing. It's an equivalence fallacy because it doesn't really address the criticism, only suggests that he's no better or no worse than his predecessor about this. But there is no hypocrisy because he's not saying that Bush was wrong to do it. (He's basically calling out many of his detractor's own hypocrisy for excusing it one instance and not the next, but that's a subject for another thread.)

What I hear people saying in this instance, however, is that it's OK when America does it, but not when Iran does. Dr. Kitten partially addressed this by suggesting that we're complying with the relevant "optional" treaties and they aren't. But of course, that in itself is an equivalence fallacy because it suggests that compliance and agreement about such matters are the same for them as they are for us, and they're not.

This outrageous notion that America's **** doesn't stink has got to stop. But that's not what I was arguing. I was arguing that we're being hypocritical -- and we are.
 
What I hear people saying in this instance, however, is that it's OK when America does it, but not when Iran does.

America is not an Islamic totalitarian state. I don't know about you, but I don't want those guys to have the bomb. I trust the US's elected leaders to be rational with their arsenal, and not use it. I can't say the same of Ayatollahs.

Thank you.
 
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So if Iran hadn't of seized the embassy (something I agreed was a serious violation of protocol), America wouldn't have supported Saddam in the war?

Not clear.

If the Islamic Republic of Iran had played the geopolitical game appropriately and had sought out US support and friendship, America probably wouldn't have encouraged a fractricidal fight between allies. The "big game" at that point was the Cold War with the USSR, and if Iran had established that it could or would be a helpful player against the Soviet bear, the United States would probably have tried to keep the lid on the local tensions and keep the war from happening in the first place.

The US was no great fan of Iraq, either. Remember Kissinger's marvelous line on the Iran-Iraq war : "It's a pity they can't both lose." If Iran had managed to befriend the US, they might even have had US support against a rather lukewarmly supported Iraq.

But there is/was no reason for the US to lift a finger to help the Iranians after the Iranians specifically declared themselves enemies of the USA.
 

I don't think the projection of force can bring about the end of the program. This is the biggest assumption among those advocating for a pre-emptive strike to kill the program, but strikes with little force require intelligence several times better than is available currently - and would simply accelerate the program without that.

Strikes with too much force may be successful, but the amount of force required would be horrendously costly and the consequences it brings about unpredictable.

So are you talking limited strike, or occupation and regime change here? Your turn. ;)
 
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I don't think the projection of force can bring about the end of the program. This is the biggest assumption among those advocating for a pre-emptive strike to kill the program, but strikes with little force require intelligence several times better than is available currently - and would simply accelerate the program.

Strikes with too much force may be successful, but the amount of force required would be horrendously costly and the consequences it brings about unpredictable.

So are you talking limited strike, or occupation and regime change here? Your turn. ;)

You're not answering my question.

I'm not talking about pre-emptive strikes on Iran, I'm asking you what you see happening once Iran gets the bomb.
 
Tell me how you see Iran acquiring nuclear weapons playing out.

Iran has something to balance Israeli nuclear preponderance in the region.


A low-level proxy conflict continues with Israel, much like now.


The minute Iran gets the bomb (if and when it does), it isn't going to go firing it off. Just like Pakistan didn't fire off its nukes (er... atom missiles, I think, technically) when it developed an atomic capability. Pakistan got itself the bomb cause India had the bomb.

The more legitimate worry is that nuclear proliferation could lead to the bomb making its way into terrorists' hands. But really, if that's the issue, then the US should be more worried about Pakistan than Iran. And the reality is that as technology moves forward there will be more and more countries with the ability to make nuclear weapons.
 
Captain, something tells me you don't understand what non-proliferation means.

You say Pakistan "balances" India, and now you want Iran to "balance" Israel, and then who? Where will it end? The buck stops at Iran, besides it signed the NPT.


ETA: non-proliferation doesn't mean that everyone should get their fair share, that we should make sure everything is even and balanced out, it's about not adding new antagonists to the game that has already too many players.

One new bomb is not a good thing that evens out the others, it's another bomb. One new bomb is always one bomb too many.
 
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Iran has something to balance Israeli nuclear preponderance in the region.

If that's actually the case, then Iran has the right to withdraw from the NPT. Three months notice -- that's all it takes.

Of course, if that's the case, then most of the nuclear powers will no longer be willing to sell it nuclear technology (and uranium) under the terms of the NPT. But it can always try to buy from, say, North Korea.

What it doesn't have the right to do is buy uranium on the open market for "peaceful" purposes and then build bombs out of it.
 

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