UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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The Fermi paradox suggests that civilisations should have colonised the galaxy already, so where are they? SETI people uses the “So where are they” as if “they” are NOT already here. There is evidence that “they” ARE here.


We're still waiting to see that evidence.....
 
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In reference to: UFOs: Challenge to SETI Specialists
Nuclear Physicist / Lecturer Stanton T. Friedman 5/02
(http://www.v-j-enterprises.com/sfufovsseti.html)


SETI people argue against ET already being here because of the vast distances involved.

”Our best rockets travel at about 10 miles per second. Even to reach the nearest other star system, Alpha Centauri, at about 4.2 light-years’ distance, would take such a rocket 60,000 years. There are about a thousand stars like the Sun within 100 light-years of us. To investigate them all with spacecraft would take millions of years and vast amounts of money.”(http://www.seti.org/Page.aspx?pid=558#a3)

Freidman is merely pointing out that one years worth of acceleration at 1G will get you close to the speed of light – much less time if larger accelerations are used. Also that in the past, eminent scientists have wildly miscalculated – for example (1941) stating it was impossible for man to reach the moon (!), (1926) it was impossible to reach earth orbit (!), and (1903) impossible for man to fly without balloons (!). We must account for advances in technology – “the future is definitely NOT a mere extrapolation of the past”.
Do you know how much energy is required to accelerate at 1G for 1 year?

More to the point, how much energy is required to accelerate a reasonably sized probe at 1G for 1 year? Let's assume a 100kg probe, and you can feel free to look up the most energy efficient means of propelling it. Then find out how long it would take to reach Alpha Centauri accelerating at 1G for 1 year, and the decelerating at 1G for 1 year at the other end. You might also want to examine the cost of such a probe. Then examine how much it would cost to do the same for every star within 10 light years. Okay, let's make it simpler, every Solar type star in that distance.

Get back to me when you have numbers instead of wild proclamations from someone else.

”SETI researchers look for narrow-band signals, the type that are confined to a small (usually 1 Hz or less) spot on the dial…” (http://www.seti.org/Page.aspx?pid=558#a3)

The distinctly unscientific assumption here is that this is how aliens would communicate with us… yeah, right…
Who says that the signal has to be a direct communication with us? SETI are looking for anything, even TV and radio signals. Do you know how narrow the TV and radio signals we use are? Do you know why we use them like that?

Try answering those questions and you might just understand why Friedman is talking crap.

“3. Why do SS make proclamations about how aliens would behave (…)We hear such comments as that aliens, once radio contact is established, would teach us about all the secrets of the universe. Just why would an advanced technological civilization share its secrets with a primitive society”​
(http://www.v-j-enterprises.com/sfufovsseti.html)
They might, or they might not. Does the possibility of their snubbing us mean we shouldn't try to find them? Are you serious?

”If E.T. is a decent (or at least competent) engineer, he'll use narrow-band signals as beacons to get our attention.
Answer the questions posed above and then get back to me.

It's conceivable that an advanced and altruistic civilization will send us simple pictures and other information.
Please note the use of the term "conceivable". Is there some part of that that you fail to understand?

(ET) wouldn’t be aware that we had received their message…” (http://www.seti.org/Page.aspx?pid=558#a3)
Can a radio station tell who has received their Radio broadcast?

Freidman is merely asking a question: “Why is it that SS take every opportunity to attack the notion of alien visitations without any reference to the many large scale scientific studies?” He then indicates the many studies conducted and that (for example) the Battelle study found 21.5% of 3201 cases were UNKNOWNS and that the greater the reliability of the reports, the greater the percentage of UNKNOWNS. Further , that statistical cross comparisons between the UNKNOWNS and the KNOWNS showed that the probability that the former were just missed KNOWNS was less than 1% for six different characteristics. Given this (and much more) research exists, Freidman states:

“The basic rules for the lack of attention to the relevant data by well educated, but ignorant-about-UFOs-professionals, especially SS, seem to be:

1. Don't bother me with the facts, my mind is made up.

2. What the public doesn't know, I won't tell them.

3. If one can't attack the data, attack the people; it is much easier.

4. Do one's research by proclamation. Investigation is too much trouble and nobody will know the difference anyway.

How else can one explain such totally baseless, but seemingly profound, proclamations as "The reliable cases are uninteresting and the interesting cases are unreliable. Unfortunately there are no cases that are both reliable and interesting." (See Sagan12).

The fact is that 35% of the EXCELLENT cases in BBSR14 were UNKNOWNS and therefore Interesting. Only 18% of the POOR cases were Unknowns. Surely professional scientists are supposed to base their conclusions on study of the relevant data, rather than proclamations?”​
(http://www.v-j-enterprises.com/sfufovsseti.html)
All of which is completely irrelevant to the validity of SETI. Please, just reposting Freidman's argument is silly. Tell us how it's relevant to the scientific validity of the SETI project.

Freidman is merely noting the seeming naivety of the SETI specialists when they claim that they don’t think anyone is “hiding” aliens.

“Is someone hiding aliens? We don't think so.’ (http://www.seti.org/Page.aspx?pid=558#a3)

Freidman notes the security implications (weapons development), the huge size of the US “black budget” and the obvious government cover-up in this regard.

“The NSA had openly admitted withholding 156 UFO documents even from a Federal Court Judge given a high security clearance. When these were "released" more than 15 years later, only 1 or 2 lines per page were not covered by whiteout. I have received formerly classified CIA UFO documents on which only 8 words are not blacked out.

USAF General Carroll Bolender stated15 that "Reports of UFOs which could effect national security... are NOT part of the Blue Book System." One should note that the very high quality military monitoring systems operated by the Air Defence Command and the NRO and NSA produce data which is born classified and is not released to the public.”​
] (http://www.v-j-enterprises.com/sfufovsseti.html)
Tell us how it's relevant to the scientific validity of the SETI project. You're just repeating Freidman's argument again.

“Without that data, they have no evidence to support the many assumptions they make about ETI. For example, it is assumed that there is intelligent life all over the place, that some of this life is more advanced than we are; but that ET communications and flight technology are stuck at the level of radio and chemical rockets, and ETs are trying to attract our attention via radio!! No evidence has been provided that any of these assumptions are true. And yet these same SS insist on ufologists providing them with an alien body!!”​
] (http://www.v-j-enterprises.com/sfufovsseti.html)
So are you suggesting that we shouldn't look because we haven't seen any evidence so far?

I thought that was the exact opposite of your usual argument?

Freidman is merely making the point that if ET is really as advanced as some make out (as advanced as we are that is!), then they would not have to wait to pick up our radio signals to know we were here… signs of life would have been obvious well before that eventuality… indeed, we know from our own searches for extra-solar planets that we also would recognise signs of life WELL before we picked up any potential radio signals!
Do you know how searches for extra-solar planets might identify signs of life? More importantly, how would they identify signs of intelligent life?

Again, you're just parroting Freidman. Try to make your own points, and do some research into the subject.

Freidman is pointing out (again) the naivety of the SETI specialists. He makes the point about the propensity of humans for destructive hostility toward their own kind and asks why ET would not be wary of us – even hostile to us… rather than wanting to communicate their technology to us!
Indeed, they may not want to talk to us. Does that mean that we shouldn't try to find them and talk to them?

Freidman merely asks: “Why is it that SS seem to assume that aliens would want to deal with them?” ] (http://www.v-j-enterprises.com/sfufovsseti.html)
He then makes the point that perhaps they might want to deal with our leaders rather than the SETI people!
Before our leaders can deal with aliens our leaders need to know that the aliens are there. Who's going to find these aliens and open the channels of communication?

Do you actually think about this stuff before you write?

The point here I think is that if they were really serious SETI needs to search a little closer to home: “In fact the sphere centered on the sun and having a radius of only 54 light years includes 1000 stars of which about 46 seem to be sun-like and suitable for planets and life”
All of which are the subject of various studies, and are included in the SETI project as targets.

Did you have a specific point?

Ummm… is not Drake himself a director of SETI? He doesn’t believe in his own formulation? You amaze me!
He freely admits that almost all of the factors in his equation are unknown. But if you want to estimate the number of advanced civilizations you need to identify the factors that you need to consider. That's what the Drake equation is, and there are now several versions, as people have amended the list of factors.

Does he believe in his own formulation? I think he believes that it's a good place to start, but that the numbers you get are dependent upon the host of assumption that have to be made because of the lack of hard data in relation to the factors.

Why don't you actually find a quote of his?

I am not sure about this point. Presumably Freidman knows of SETI specialists who have commented about ET not necessarily being humanoid and using that proclamation to form a negative opinion about humanoids seen associated with UFOs already here… Freidman merely implies that if the laws of physics and biology are universal, then humanoid IS a distinct possibility.
It's a possibility. It isn't a necessity.

Tell us how it's relevant to the scientific validity of the SETI project.

Freidman states: “Two polls of engineers and scientists involved in research and development activities18 even showed that 2/3 of those who expressed an opinion believe that some UFOs are ET spacecraft.” ] (http://www.v-j-enterprises.com/sfufovsseti.html)
So what?

What does this have to do with the scientific validity of the SETI project?

Yet SETI uses such information for its own purposes: “Most scientists support the search.” (http://www.seti.org/Page.aspx?pid=558#a3)
Do you think that a belief that UFOs are alien craft is incompatible with support for SETI?

Actually I think you will find you are incorrect. UFO proponents state that (for example) right angle turns at speed are physics defying but not that this therefore means the pilots must not be human. Merely that the technological capability is not human.
OR, they're unmanned. OR, they're not real. OR, they're actually ultra secret test craft piloted by humans, and we do have the technology, but it isn't publicly known yet.

The Fermi paradox suggests that civilisations should have colonised the galaxy already, so where are they? SETI people uses the “So where are they” as if “they” are NOT already here. There is evidence that “they” ARE here.
It's a reasonable question to ask. If they should already be here then where are they? Have they made direct contact yet?

If not, then that suggests that either they aren't there at all, OR that they haven't visited us, but they are out there. Neither of which means that we shouldn't look.

If they have contacted us then why don't we know about it?

Freidman merely notes the “cult-like” status of SETI people and UFO debunkers alike: “…almost cult-like atmosphere, with charismatic leadership, a strong dogma, and irrational resistance to outside or new ideas.” This is his opinion based on experience. I happen to agree with that opinion based on my own experiences in the forum, but of course you will disagree…that is the nature of cults.
Tell us how it's relevant to the scientific validity of the SETI project.

Then you have become tied up with his method of delivery and have then missed Freidman’s substantive points.
What substantive points? That he doesn't like the way SETI people dismiss UFO proponents? That there are other ways to find aliens? That the aliens might already be here?

How is any of it relevant to the scientific validity of the SETI project?

I have offered it in the above.
No, you've repeated Freidman's arguments, almost none of which have any relevancy to the scientific validity of the SETI project.

Try to think for yourself. You claim to be a scientist, and to understand the scientific process. So, in your own words, please explain what's wrong with the SETI project from a scientific perspective.
 
Freidman merely notes the “cult-like” status of SETI people and UFO debunkers alike: “…almost cult-like atmosphere, with charismatic leadership, a strong dogma, and irrational resistance to outside or new ideas.” This is his opinion based on experience. I happen to agree with that opinion based on my own experiences in the forum, but of course you will disagree…that is the nature of cults.

That's right. Let's put a label on the skeptics (call them debunkers as a slur and refer to their opinions as that of a cult) because they are the ones holding up UFO research. You are shifting blame from your own/Friedman's incompetence and inability to present evidence by demonizing those with an opposing opinion. This is not science and if you want to call it that, you are no scientist. A REAL scientist is interested in opposing views and accepts the criticism of their theories. They take it in and try and make their research better. Friedman has been doing this since the 1960's and he has not added one iota to the level of knowledge about UFOs. What do we know about UFOs now that we didn't know in the 1950s or 60s? From what I can see, absolutely nothing. Sure there are plenty of new cases that are "unexplained" but what does that prove? Friedman is a promoter and not a scientist. Trying to compare him to those involved in SETI is just laughable.
 
“Without that data, they have no evidence to support the many assumptions they make about ETI.


SETI is looking for possible radio waves coming from ETI. What can possibly be wrong with that?. They don't have the data, that's precisely why they are looking.

Rramjet said:
And yet these same SS insist on ufologists providing them with an alien body.


SETI doesn't know if ETI exists, that's why they are looking. On the other hand, some ufologists proclaim that ETI actually exists, and that they have the supporting evidence. Big difference.
 
Astrophotographer makes a good point here, and I can vouch for it from personal (and very tedious) experience: All this is old stuff, a cud that the Ufoologists have been chewing, swallowing, and coughing up again since -- my god! -- 1947.

I'd dearly love to hear some "outside or new ideas” on the subject of aliens and their goddamn flying saucers.
 


I stated:
FYI: I have NEVER claimed alien spaceships, alien bases, alien visits, etc. You argue (to be polite) as if I have claimed these things. I have not.
You have repeatedly claimed that f ex the Teheran UFO(s) are of alien origin. So, prove that those aliens have stuff that can performed as described and that they could have been in Teheran at the time of the sightings. Or are you just making unsupported assertions?
I was merely noting that the manoeuvrers and characteristics of the Tehran UFO suggest intelligent control and technological capability outside human capacity. If not human – then what?

I stated:
You believe the cases to be “inadequate”, but that mere belief does NOT make them so. For over 60 years the UFO debunkers have held sway over public and media opinion. THAT mere fact also does NOT make the cases “inadequate”. I am presenting cases with strong evidence. So far the only “debunker” explanations have been implausible - like the “helicopter” for Zamora’s UFO, or the “blimp” from Rogue River. In other cases I have presented (Tehran, Father Gill, White Sands) the ONLY counter to them from the debunkers is ad hominem. I expected some evidence against my cases from JREF (or at least some sound arguments)… I got none…
I repeat, lack of evidence for the mundane is not evidence for the exotic. All the cases you have presented have in common that the data is lacking, contradictory and impossible to confirm. Therefor, it is not possible to draw any conclusions one way or the other. You present evidence of bad research, not evidence of alien UFOs.
Bad research? I present the cases. Your merely stating that “data is lacking, contradictory and impossible to confirm” does not make that contention true.

I stated:
A radiologist who examined the witnesses' medical records for MUFON wrote, "We have strong evidence that these patients have suffered secondary damage to ionizing radiation. It is also possible that there was an infrared or ultraviolet component as well." (quoted in Clark, 176)” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cash-Landrum_incident)
You forgot to quote the rest of that text:

However, Brad Sparks contends that, although the symptoms were somewhat similar to those caused by ionizing radiation, the rapidity of onset was only consistent with a massive dose that would have meant certain death in a few days. Since all of the victims lived for years after the incident, Sparks suggests the cause of the symptoms was some kind of chemical contamination, presumably by an aerosol.
Brad Sparks? Yeah… he’s the expert now? Perhaps this case might interest you. (http://bp0.blogger.com/_-qWvml8_fAg/SGccRWGaJpI/AAAAAAAAAF8/J2QyUR-1d0E/s1600-h/SciAm2.JPG)

I stated:
And we know that he was Dr Peter Rank. So those ARE the facts as reported by the investigating radiologist.

“Proof” of what? The consulting radiologist made his report. That Radiologist was Dr Peter Rank. This is common public knowledge to anyone who has conducted even the most cursory examination of the case.

I stated:
However, when we apply all the scientific and logical methodology to a case and we find the witnesses reliable and we STILL draw a blank on mundane explanations, then we are free to draw hypotheses based on the evidence as presented in the reports.
But when the evidence we have are not enough to form a conclusion from, we have to leave it as unidentified. This has happened with all cases you have brought up in this thread. Not enough reliable evidence to form any kind of conclusion. How can this be so hard to understand. There is not enough objective data available for any of the observations. Ok?
So you say… but that does NOT make your statements true.

I stated:
I HAVE however claimed that, after applying our “known or studied means”, and when we have exhausted all plausible mundane possibilities, THEN we may start to explore alternative hypotheses based on the evidence as presented in the reports.
And here you go on about the same thing again. exhausted all plausible mundane possibilities is simply not true for any of these cases. exhausted all plausible mundane possibilities as far as the available evidence let's us do that is closer to the truth. When the objective evidence is zero, your statement has no meaning any more.
If you can come up with plausible mundane explanations for the cases I have been presenting, please go ahead.

I stated:
I DO however claim that perceptual research CAN inform us about eyewitness reports by making us aware of the conditions and circumstances under which perception may be mislead and therefore providing us the ability to examine the case reports in light of this research for such conditions and circumstances.
And why don't you acknowledge that a hot spring day will have heat haze which makes discerning shape on distant objects hard? It's a fact about perception. Why don't you realize that using binoculars from a boat, with several people in it on a river is very hard? It's about perception.
Heat haze is not a phenomenon noted over water. When observed over land, it is also noted only close to the ground. If you contend that using binoculars from a boat is “very hard”, then perhaps you better inform the Navy and tell them that whatever they see through their binoculars from their boats cannot be what is actually there. I am sure they would take you seriously too.

I stated:
A good example of this is provided by the Rogue River case. A number of people observe an object in a clear, blue sky. Perceptual research tells us that estimates of distance are difficult under such conditions. IF the witnesses all agree on a distance , THEN we become suspicious of the report because, according to research, we EXPECT different estimates from our witnesses if they were truly independent – and what do you know, the distance estimates vary between 1 and 4 miles!
I don't really know what you try to say here. It now seems you're arguing that the witnesses are not reliable in this case because they make very different estimates of distance. In that case, I'm glad we finally agree on that.
I noted that the differences in distance estimates are precisely what perceptual research tells us should happen. If the witnesses ALL reported the SAME distance, then we would be suspicious. THIS is how perceptual research CAN inform us.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
The realisation of “I don’t know” leads us to create hypotheses and then explore those hypotheses to see if they fit the evidence.
The majority of people participating in this thread does something else. We recognise that there is not enough objective evidence available to draw any kind of conclusion from so it's pointless to create hypotheses, especially very exotic ones.
So you say, but merely stating it does NOT make it true.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
If they do NOT fit the evidence then we reject such hypotheses and move on to others.
Or, we realize that we don't have enough evidence to even start evaluating our hypothesis.
So you say, but merely stating it does NOT make it true.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
We keep doing this until we run out of hypotheses to explore.
Or, until we have no more evidence. A very short period of time in evaluating every single case you have presented so far.
So you say, but merely stating it does NOT make it true.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
If at the end of that process we are left with no answers, then we must simply accept that we REALLY don’t know and all we can do then is continue to gather data until something else suggests itself and then the process begins all over again.
And we have now run out of data and still have no answer. Deal with it.
So you say, but merely stating it does NOT make it true.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
At the base level a UFO is a UFO is a UFO… and we MUST accept that in the end WE simply DO NOT KNOW.
I'm glad there is something we can agree on.
But we CAN also legitimately speculate based on the evidence.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
However, the UFO debunkers traditionally take a step in the direction of outright and irrational denial
No, many people in this thread claims that there is not enough reliable evidence so speculation into what is observed is futile.
So you say, but merely stating it does NOT make it true.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
…and the UFO proponents take a step in the direction of irrational ET hypotheses.
Your point being?

Originally Posted by Rramjet
Reasonable UFO proponents will then soften their stance to state that okay…ET IS an unfounded assertion, BUT then HOW DO we EXPLAIN the physics defying and seemingly intelligent control properties of UFOs if NOT ET (not to mention the fact that “aliens” are SEEN in some of these encounters)?
We don't have enough objective data about these sightings to even try to explain them or even rule out all possible mundane causes.
So you say, but merely stating it does NOT make it true.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
We MUST therefore conduct more RESEARCH into the problem.
Yes, please do that.
Then stop hindering the process.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
Unfortunately the debunkers refuse to accept this. Primarily because they maintain an anti-historic, naïve realist view of the world. If physics says it is impossible, then by golly, it IS impossible! Therefore the eyewitnesses MUST be deluded, liars, hoaxers, etc.
No, this is simply not true. Eye witnesses MUST not be deluded or liars. They COULD be, which is a totally different thing that you seem unable to grasp. Without objective evidence there is no way to know for sure. You are gullible enough to accept it because it fits with your belief system. I'm not.
So we use the evidence we have available and research conducted that speaks to witness reliability. You deny that we can do this?

Originally Posted by Rramjet
The UFO proponents then refer the UFO debunkers to the history of science to show how time and time again what was thought “impossible” invariably becomes “possible” after “paradigm shifts” in the way we think about the problem.
Yeah, but then we had objective data available.
Are you sure about that?

Originally Posted by Rramjet
The debunkers merely go into deeper denial and implacably maintain “impossible”. Having no logical grounds for this stance they then resort to ridicule and abuse.
Again, this is not true. Not enough objective data available.
So you say, but merely stating it does NOT make it true.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
However, the UFO proponents would simply be happy if the UFO debunkers just stepped out of the way for a while and allowed the necessary research to proceed.
Why would that be good? Why are critical voices a hinderance to progress in the case of UFOs and exactly the opposite when it comes to advances in science?
Critical voices are fine, but active disinformation, ridicule and abuse are not.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
But of course the debunker mentality cannot allow that to happen. They have after all invested over 60 years of their energies into their debunking effort. A whole new generation has emerged, steeped in the debunker mentality. They have strong beliefs about the subject and they will now do ANYTHING to maintain that belief system. They set about to actively PREVENT any such research from occurring!
Noone is preventing anything. Anyone is free to research UFOs.
So you say, but merely stating it does NOT make it true. You are simply denying the history of UFO research and government and debunker involvement in the process. Perhaps you can start here: (http://www.narcap.org/commentary/ufocritique.pdf)

Originally Posted by Rramjet
They recommend in reports that no use can come of such research. They state that there is no way that science can approach the problem. They state that the people involved are delusional, liars and hoaxers. They associate UFO proponents with psychics, believers in fairies and unicorns, witches and goblins.
And right now, aliens fall into the same category as fairies and unicorns. Some people claim to have seen them but no objective evidence is available.
So you say, but merely stating it does NOT make it true. This merely shows your lack of knowledge of the subject.

Btw, who are THEY?
Perhaps you should read the statements that lead up to my comment that you cited.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
They conduct covert “hoax” campaigns designed to trap and destroy the reputations of serious researchers. The government adds to the problem by “covering” their own covert operations under the UFO banner – adding to the general confusion. In short the debunkers will stop at nothing to prevent serious research from progressing.
You really don’t know the history of this subject? Seek and ye shall find.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
Of course they will pay lip service to the idea of research. They will claim that if anyone wants to conduct research they are quite welcome to try. “Go ahead” they say “conduct the research. Stop whining about it and just DO the research” they say. Meanwhile, behind the scenes, in forums such as the JREF, the ridicule and abuse continues unabated.
So you now claim that the Jref forum members have the power to decide who can research what? Oh wow...
No, they just add to the general negative “noise”.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
They co-opt popular “media personalities” into their campaign (Penn and Teller spring to mind) to unmercifully attack the very idea that there might be something worthwhile to be investigated in the UFO field.
I like Penn and Teller.
Of course you do.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
Then the UFO proponents do not help themselves either. Understanding the public’s appetite for “mysteries of the unknown” they try and cash in. Liars, hoaxers and the plain delusional flock into the field to try and turn “a quick buck” – not realising that there is actually very little to “turn”. The UFO debunkers point to these people and say “See, we told you so!” and wise men nod sagely and think to themselves they are better off keeping well out of it! Thus the funding dries up. No peer research panels are set up. No peer-reviewed journal gets off the ground. No properly constituted research proposals are formulated. And the field is left in disarray. Open to all and anyone with an opinion and a loud voice to assert their dominance.
Yeah, poor you. A victim of circumstances. If someone would just give you the money then you'd show the world...
No, you missed my point.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
But serious UFO researcher MUST push on. They must continue to gather the data.
Oh yes. Please do that! We need data.
Indeed.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
They must continue as best they can to publish research reports.
Ehh, gather the data first please.
Taken as given surely.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
They must continue to take the fight up to the debunkers (in forum such as this). For there is a mystery out there and sooner or later humanity will get around to exploring it – despite the debunkers concerted objections.
Yes, there are some Unidentified Flying Objects seen. I'm not so sure that they all will be explained eventually. Not enough objective data.
So you say, but merely stating it does NOT make it true.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
Thus I simply present cases to show that there IS “something” of real substance to UFOs. I do not conclude “therefore aliens did it”. I simply note that given the characteristics of UFOs then by definition they represent something “alien” to us – “alien” to our science and to our way of thinking about the world.
If there is no objective evidence that confirms said "characteristics of UFOs" then you're just spurting out unsupported assertions.
So you say, but merely stating it does NOT make it true.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
I am interested though in the reaction of JREF in the form of ridicule and abuse that I have been receiving.
Of course you get ridiculed when you time and time again make unsubstantiated claims and fail to acknowledge it. Many bright people have pointed this out to you.
So you say, but merely stating it does NOT make it true.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
I began to realise three things about it. First it was a deliberate tactic to "make me go away" - (either by me responding in kind so that there was an excuse to ban me, or by me not being able to "wear" the insults and just leaving of my own accord) in other words, the JREF seemed NOT to want to discuss the cases at all (!) and second, that if that was quality of JREF members, it did not bode well for the future of JREF itself. Finally, if ridicule and abuse was the best answer JREF could come up with to many of the cases I present, then the cases just might be good ones!
Or, you have a severe case of selective perception. You simply fail to acknowledge any critisism against your hypothesis.
So you say, but merely stating it does NOT make it true.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
Of course the other reaction was to propose implausible explanations (Blimps at Rogue River, Helicopters for Zamora, etc) and these do nothing to help the debunker cause either. My cases were looking better day by day!
Possible explanations, possible! More possible than things that are unknown to science.
So you say, but merely stating it does NOT make it true.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
Essentially UFO debunkers contend that there IS no good evidence for UFOs (being other than explicable in mundane terms) and I have simply been presenting cases to counter that assertion.
Originally Posted by Rramjet
The latest case is the O'Hare case, which for some strange reason, the UFO debunkers seem to want to shy away from. THAT piques my interest in the case even further! What IS it about this case that the debunkers don't want to discuss. If it is NOT a good case, then surely the debunkers would state UP FRONT what is wrong with it and then we could move on... but they have not done so... I merely wonder why.
Don't worry, I'll get to it in due time. As a convenience, would you mind posting the relevant links to your evidence again? I can't seem to find it.
(http://www.narcap.org/reports/010/TR10_Case_18a.pdf)

Originally Posted by Rramjet
Actually, that statement is going too far. I would not say that the ET hypothesis does not fit ANY evidence – we have the []sightings of “alien” beings, we have “technological” craft, we have supposed “statements” from the “aliens” themselves… so there IS evidence… however the point is do we believe them when they tell us that they are from (for example) Zeta Reticuli… I contend that we should not.
We don't have confirmed sightings, confirmed technological crafts or confirmed statements from alien beings. We have witnesses claiming (at best) that this is what they experienced.
Let’s just write off all human observational experience shall we? After all, we can get along without it can’t we?

Originally Posted by Rramjet
The debunkers here are very quick to propose mundane solutions based on no evidence (helicopters and a Lunar Surveyor for the Zamora case for example - or at least an implausible scenario involving the military taking a multimillion dollar piece of equipment 100 miles away from the testing range and into a small New Mexico town. That sort of “explanation” really DOES require evidence and none has so far been forthcoming. That directly refutes you contention above).
Yeah, and no evidence for alien origin has been forthcomming either. So we still have UFOs and not IFOs, alien or mundane.
So you say.

You just post walls of text saying the same things over and over. That doesn't make it true.
Ha!

Originally Posted by Rramjet
What does this case do then?
(White Sands - http://www.nicap.org/ncp/ncp-brumac.htm), this is not an "eyewitness account" - these military researchers set out to "capture" UFOs with their instruments and they succeeded!

Yeah, they captured something unidentified on film but didn't get any reliable data that could explain what it was. It's still UNIDENTIFIED.
So what does THAT tell you?

Originally Posted by Rramjet
The plain facts are these:

1. People observe objects that they and subsequent research cannot identify in mundane terms.
2. These objects cannot be identified in mundane terms either because
the objects seem to posses properties or characteristics that lie outside the limits of what we take to be the boundaries of the natural of technological world, or that no mundane explanation presents itself as plausible in the circumstance.

3. None of the reported observations is corraborated by enough objective data.
So you say, but merely stating it does NOT make it true.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
There are two ways we can proceed from here. First we can deny that the objects do possess such properties as described and that the objects actually do lie within the limits of what we take to be the boundaries of the natural or technological world - in which case we must hypothesise that the observer has (wittingly or unwittingly) misapprehended the true properties and characteristics of the object, or we accept that the observer is substantially accurate and that the objects really do possess the characteristics as described and that we must hypothesise that our consensus view of “reality” is inadequate to explain them.
We should, as sceptics, require aditional, objective data that confirms the observed carachteristics since we know that human perception is fallable.
Sure… no eyewitness in the history of humanity has ever been able to accurately report what they observed…

Originally Posted by Rramjet
While there is a natural opposition to the latter (no-one likes to think that they do not have a good grasp of what constitutes the boundaries of the natural or technological world), history is replete with examples that tell us that our view of the world and how it operates is based on a consensus opinion and that new discoveries are continually shifting and amending those boundaries. Thus to deny the properties and characteristics of the objects in these terms – based on what we know about the world and technology today – could easily itself be a misconception and thus not a valid objection.
New discoveries are made by applying the scientific method. Not by accepting eyewitness testimonies at face value.
No-one is accepting anything at face value.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
Which direction we take then depends on whether we consider the observer to be accurate or to be under some form of (witting or unwitting) misapprehension.
It doesn't matter if we consider the observer to be accurate or not. Without confirmation by objective means we have to leave it as unidentified. That's the case with all of science and I see no reason why we should treat UFOlogists differently.
What objective means?

Originally Posted by Rramjet
First “unwitting” misapprehension:
Can observers be mistaken about what they observe?
Yes, of course they can.
Does it necessarily follow then that they are mistaken in any particular observation we care to examine?
No, of course not.
How then can we tell if a witness, in a particular observation, was mistaken or not?
There are two ways of explicating this. First we can examine research on the circumstance and conditions under which witnesses can be mistaken and see if it can inform us on whether any of those circumstances or conditions might apply in the observation under examination and second we can see if there are independent observers who describe the same properties and characteristics of the observed object.

And 3, we should obtain objective data. Failing that, we should leave it as unidentified.
How is this relevant to my statements above?

Originally Posted by Rramjet
Second, “witting” misapprehension:
Do observers lie or hoax?
Yes, of course they do.
Does it necessarily follow then that they are lying or hoaxing in any particular observation we care to examine?
No, of course not.
How then can we tell if a witness, in a particular observation, is lying or hoaxing or not?
There are actually two ways of explicating this. First we can examine the reliability of the witness (Do they have a history? Are they of sound mind? Have they solid references? etc) and second, we can see if there are independent observers who describe the same properties and characteristics of the observed object.

Se previous comment.
Indeed.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
One final thing to consider is whether there exist unknown natural or technological phenomena that do lie within the limits of what we take to be the boundaries of the natural or technological world, but that our current consensus knowledge simply has not yet discovered and if and when it does, it will be able to describe how this can be so (while maintaining our consensus view of reality).

The problem adherents of the latter “explanation” for the observed object have is that “anything goes”. Anything from unknown electromagnetic phenomena, to secret military technology, to extraterrestrials are all equally valid hypotheses under this “explanation”. Proponents of each hypothesis formed under this “explanation” will claim that each, when positively “discovered”, will conform to the natural world once we understand their true nature and can describe in mundane terms how each manifests and operates. Thus this explanation is a dead end. We can go nowhere with it that will provide us new knowledge. It is merely putting off until the future, questions that need to be answered now.

Word sallad.
!

Originally Posted by Rramjet
So, then we must return to questions of whether the observed object really does or does not have the characteristics as described by the observer. But what if we discover that the observers are reliable and accurate? How should we proceed from there?
I know, I know!!! Obtain objective confirmation as is the norm in the scientific community.
If you want me to reply to you should at least try to make you comments relevant to my statements.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
Of course we must then explore mundane explanations to see if any accord with the characteristics and properties of the observed object. In this endeavour we must be careful to restrain our hypotheses to plausible hypotheses. For example it is no use stating that the observer misapprehended a mundane object if that mundane object was not (or could not have been) present at the time.
Yes, but without reliable data we can't rule everything out.
We have reliable data - you just don’t care to admit it.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
But of course the real world is rarely as straightforward. After the event we can never determine with 100% reliability whether a witness was reliable and accurate but by the same token, we can also never determine with 100% reliability that any mundane hypothesis we propose is the answer either.
Yes we can, if we gather objective data. Unfortunately, no such cases exist.
So you say…

Originally Posted by Rramjet
It all comes down to a balance of probabilities. Given the circumstances and conditions and considering past research, is it likely or unlikely that the witness is reliable or accurate? Also given the circumstances and conditions and considering past research, is it likely or unlikely that our hypothetical mundane solution provides the explanation.
You mean guessing or accept/reject based on your current belief system?
!

Originally Posted by Rramjet
One other thing to note is that in our determination of the above questions, we must provide evidence. That is, it is no good merely stating that we think that a witness is reliable and accurate. We must provide evidence that there is at least a strong likelihood of this being true. Similarly it is no good merely stating that we think a particular mundane object is the explanation, we must provide evidence that there is at least a strong likelihood of this being true.
Exactly what I have been saying all along. Please provide that objective evidence.
Explain this then (http://bp0.blogger.com/_-qWvml8_fAg/SGccRWGaJpI/AAAAAAAAAF8/J2QyUR-1d0E/s1600-h/SciAm2.JPG)

Originally Posted by Rramjet
So, what if, after having gone through all the above, we finally end with a determination that it is likely that the witness is reliable and accurate and that the object therefore really does have the properties and characteristics as described and that we cannot ascribe a likely, plausible mundane explanation to it?

You mean, when we have confirmed by objective means that an unknown object actually was flying around somewhere? Then we should try to figure out what it was.
Yes.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
Well then we are at the point of being able to state that the object is unidentified. In other words a UFO.
It was a UFO at the start of your post and it's still a UFO. Stop redefining the meaning of UFO.
!

Originally Posted by Rramjet
Then where do we go? We have already noted that an appeal to unknown natural or technological phenomena that might be discovered in the future is a dead end, so how then should we proceed?
Oh please tell me...
I did.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
Well of course we must examine the descriptions of the object’s properties and characteristics (and its affect on the surrounding environment) and see what those characteristics and environmental effects might tell us about the nature of the object.
No, we don't need to examine the described carachteristics. We need to examine the confirmed caracteristics.
So you say…

Originally Posted by Rramjet
We might ask questions like:
Is it a solid object?
Does it display aspects of intelligent control?
Do its properties and characteristics accord with our knowledge of physics, chemistry, etc?
… and so on.

Your point is?
No.. perhaps you are right… we shouldn’t ask questions. That would be too logical a step to take.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
But once we have finished asking and answering those types of questions, where do we go from there?

We create hypotheses of course.

Could it be ET?

That's not a hypothesis, it's a question.
So you can’t imagine any hypotheses concerning ET?

Originally Posted by Rramjet
But now we run into a problem. Hypotheses should be testable right? Well, yes and no. HOW did we imagine our hypothesis in the first place? Of course we based it, like any naive inductivist would, on the observations. Intelligent control, physics defying properties, associated “beings”… it MUST be ET! Well, no… we can imagine other hypotheticals, like, interdimensional beings perhaps, or time travellers, or “they” might actually be “indigenous”…co-inhabitants if you like… or perhaps Venus was once like earth… or one of the moons of Jupiter could support life… Nevertheless, the ET hypothesis would seem to be the most plausible of all such potential hypotheses. That of course does not make it the correct hypotheses…
Why more plausible? You're jumping conclusions.
Just an opinion.

Originally Posted by Rramjet
Of course we will never know for sure unless ET actually takes us to their “home” and gives us the grand tour. For even if they landed on the Whitehouse lawn we would not know… they could be deceiving us still! Even if we had a crashed craft and alien bodies… we STILL would not know for sure. So it is disingenuous for the UFO debunkers to claim that they will only “believe” if UFO proponents can show them physical evidence. For even after such evidence is admitted, there is STILL no direct proof of ET. We are still left with the proposition “Well it looks like it could be…” But that is just what we have now. “It looks like it.”, so what we need to do now is conduct research with the evidence that we have now. [/I]
Objective evidence that something not created by man was flying around would convince me that it's worth investigating. Where it comes from comes next.
What objective evidence?

Originally Posted by Rramjet
We need to look at the cases. For it seems to me that the UFO debunkers still do not believe that UFOs are NOT mundane objects. We need to show that the witnesses are reliable and not mistaken. And we can do that by presenting cases that demonstrate this is likely to be true and that there is no plausible mundane hypothesis that can be put forward as an explanation. I propose the cases I have been presenting do exactly that.
You don't need to do that because it doesn't help. You need to present objective evidence. How hard can that be to understand?
What objective evidence do you propose in light of my above comments?
 
Sorry for the drive-by post, but I have been traveling. Will be for another week.

No hypothesis yet, right?
 
Freidman merely notes the “cult-like” status of SETI people and UFO debunkers alike: “…almost cult-like atmosphere, with charismatic leadership, a strong dogma, and irrational resistance to outside or new ideas.” This is his opinion based on experience. I happen to agree with that opinion based on my own experiences in the forum, but of course you will disagree…that is the nature of cults.

I have offered it in the above.


Yes Rramjet, hand wave all other posters here has members of a cult because they disagree with Friedman's tall tales, sorry I mean your position.The irony is this quote of Friedman's, I meant your quote, match up to what I know of Friedman and other ufo proponents. Ufology is all about personality not about science since they have none.
 
As for the Sturrock panel comment, it is a statement of fact that they were injured and treated. However, these were physcial scieintists and not doctors. They saw paperwork about medical injuries and treatment. I did not see any discussion of a presentation of medical records in the book (which had most, if not all, of the papers presented). I am sure they saw a paper about the injuries and treatment, which is not the same thing. Edit: It was John Schuessler who presented the case to the panel. His paper was not in the book but it seems to have been the same paper he presented at the CUFOS/MUFON symposiums. Most of that came from the articles he wrote in the MUFON journal, which I have already quoted.
You have often claimed that the conclusions of the Sturrock Panel supported your position on UFOs (and have cited concluding passages in support of that claim). IF you are NOW claiming that the Sturrock Panel was in ERROR when investigating its UFO cases (judging by the above speculation, presumably by not exercising due diligence) then YOU can no longer use the Panel’s conclusions to support your case!

This is the type of thing I mean when I contend that UFO debunkers will say anything (no matter what the logical – or otherwise – consequences of that action might be) if it seems to support their case. Here we have an example of a person who has often claimed (and cited) the Sturrock Panel’s conclusions to support his case, yet here can turn around to attempt to trash the very same Panel’s research methods when it suits him!
What a load of nonsense. This is just typical for you. I stated that they noted that there were injuries and treatment. However, what they were presented was the usual one-sided documentation by John Schuessler (a man you now seem to think was inaccurate in his writings). They were not medical doctors and can not venture much of an opinion on what caused those injuries. If you are not smart enough to understand this, then I guess it is true that you are not a scientist at all. DESPITE all of this one-sided presentation this panel still did not see any indication of an alien presence. That is something you fail to grasp and, apparently, never will.
You directly imply: First, that the Sturrock panel was fooled by a “one-sided” report by Scheussler and Second, that they were not expert enough to even “venture much of an opinion” on the cause of the injuries, yet even though this was (in your opinion) the case – they managed to conclude that there was no “indication of an alien presence”?

So, according to you, the Sturrock Panel was not given good evidence and was not expert enough to conclude anything even if that evidence was good, yet you maintain their conclusions are valid? And you call ME “not smart enough”? LOL.

On the “Curious Phenomenon in Venezuela” (http://bp0.blogger.com/_-qWvml8_fAg/SGccRWGaJpI/AAAAAAAAAF8/J2QyUR-1d0E/s1600-h/SciAm2.JPG)
This appears to be a letter to the editor. While interesting, we don't have any real facts. It is just a story. Again, we have no idea what the individuals were exposed to or when. There is only the appearance that they were exposed to something that immediately produced their symptoms. Did they have a dinner prior to this that was contaminated by some substance? Was their food or water contaminated by a chemical or a naturally occurring radioactive alpha-emitter? We do not know and this anecdote proves absolutely nothing.
No “real facts”? This is a matter of fact account relating the facts of the matter to the editors of Scientific American. There is no hype, no mention of UFOs, just a series of factual observations. The whole point of the account was that the witnesses and the reporter did not know what they were exposed to. The reporter presumes that it may be related to the meteorological/electrical phenomena discussed in Scientific American and draws their attention to such perhaps hoping that they might have the answer in a related phenomenon. Did they have dinner prior to their experiences? You know, 99% of all fatal car crashes have involved people with food in their stomachs. According to you we must ban “food driving”! Preposterous! And that food was contaminated by a “chemical or a naturally occurring radioactive alpha-emitter” – yet no similar “poisonings” ever occurred prior or since? Yeah, sure…that’s plausible! LOL.
 
more abuse.

I bet if you were constrained to posting actual evidence of aliens you wouldn't bother to post here at all Rroger, all we've had so far is evidence of U.F.O's which no one here denied exist in the first place

so do you have any evidence of what you claimed you had evidence for or are you just going to carry on wasting everyones time ?
:rolleyes:
 
Friedman is another one of those overeducated and pompous individuals who have invested their entire life proping up the UFO phenomena. Rather than recognize that he has failed to do real science on the matter, he blames skeptics and debunkers for blocking the path of scientific progress (similar to what Rramjet has done here) and UFO investigations. Of course, nothing could be farther from the truth. REAL SCIENCE would continue and WOULD produce the evidence if done properly. Instead it is the same old repeating of wild stories that are prone to human error.
Yeah, that’s right…attack the man rather than the argument with wild, handwaving, unfounded and generalised assertions. But of course, according to Astrophotographer, that's how we DO science isn’t it? LOL.

He also claims that skeptics and debunkers follow those four rules he made up but he is probably one of the greatest violators of those same rules. If you read the link given, you can see him do it over and over again. I commented on this briefly (giving a recent example) in the September-October 2009 issue of sunlite http://home.comcast.net/~tprinty/UFO/SUNlite1_3.pdf
Go to page 17. There is also an editor comment on pages 14-15, where I point out that Friedman ignored certain statistics in his book so he can misrepresent the data. This is another case of Friedman stating "don't bother me with the facts" and "what the public doesn't know....".
You know I went to page 17 and found no evidence for you assertions (why am I not surprised?).

Freidman states that Dateline reported the “lights” (which were speculated to have been flares) in the Phoenix Lights case, and claims they failed to distinguish between the lights and other reports of a “huge boomerang shaped, low flying silent object which took minutes to pass overhead”. He also criticised Michael Shermer, who came up with the obviously preposterous “explanation” of “high-flying airplanes”.

The article then goes on to REPEAT Dateline’s omission and misconstrue Freidman’s complaint by stating “Only a few reports mentioned a dark object behind the lights”. OMG! The ‘Lights” were NOT what Freidman was talking about! It was the huge, boomerang shaped UFO reports that he claims were missed – BOTH by Dateline AND now in the current article under discussion! Then the article goes on to criticise Freidman for NOT talking about the “lights”! OMG, this is just irrational nonsense!

The article continues by citing a “craft” report (so there WAS reports about craft – not just lights!) and then claims that Freidman was “unaware” of such reports! Then the article claims that this means that Freidman was doing “research by proclamation”, not telling his readers the rest of the story… not bothering with the facts… employing the “attack the people” argument… Hooo boy…talk about madness. IMHO this article is demonstrably insane! Black is white and white is black… (shakes head in utter amazed disbelief). And Astrophotographer puts it forward as an example of Freidman’s hypocrisy? LOL.
 
Yeah, that’s right…attack the man rather than the argument with wild, handwaving, unfounded and generalised assertions.


What argument?. Friedman's arguments on challenging SETI and its scientists have been already addressed by Wollery. Now the ball is in your court to answer a simple question: in what way his arguments affect the scientific validity of the SETI project?.

ETA: Let's not forget that Friedman called SETI a silly project.
 
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Now the ball is in your court to answer a simple question: in what way his arguments affect the scientific validity of the SETI project?

hey, join the queue, were still waiting for RRRRrrrrrroger to provide evidence of aliens, if you start giving him other things to do he'll lose sight of the main objective, fail miserably and become a figure of ridicule
:D
 
hey, join the queue, were still waiting for RRRRrrrrrroger to provide evidence of aliens, if you start giving him other things to do he'll lose sight of the main objective, fail miserably and become a figure of ridicule
:D


haha, yes, one thing at a time, but he has had 120 pages worth of opportunities to provide his announced evidence of aliens. Since that's already a dead cause, let's call the next in line .....
 
Aknenaten, I hate to pull you away from the ongoing carnival and my increased intake of hot buttered popcorn, but that hybrid if it is a hybrid, has me stumped. What is it? I even went to the annual lists of rotary wing designs in “Sport Aviation” and “Kitplanes” and couldn’t find it.


:) It's a Boeing X-50.


BoeingX_50.jpg


I'll prepare an article about it and post shortly.


Cheers,

Dave
 
:) It's a Boeing X-50.


[qimg]http://www.yvonneclaireadams.com/HostedStuff/BoeingX_50.jpg[/qimg]​


I'll prepare an article about it and post shortly.


Cheers,

Dave

so officiallly this was a UFO then
I wouldn't bother memorising its sillhouette for future reference though,
DARPA withdrew funding for the X-50 program in late 2006 due to inherent design flaws, it was supposed to demonstrate that a rotor could be used as a fixed wing for forward momentum,
of the two prototypes
ship 1 crashed
ship 2 crashed
guess where the design flaw was,
:D
 
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I've noticed that Rramjets use of CAPITALISATION has started to involve only small words

is this good or bad
should we be worried ?
:D

Broken keyboard? Caps lock key not staying down long enough to type long words? Certainly his wall-o-text attacks are long enough to pound some serious punishment into a keyboard...

A
 
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