Question regarding James Randi and Gary Schwartz

[madurobob]

In the source for those quotes, how many other predictions were given that were wrong?

Cayce is famous for his misses! Such as his claim that 1933 would be a good year, that the Atlantean death ray would be discovered in '58, and a tilting of the Earth’s axis would dive huge seismic turmoil around the globe in the 50s and 60s. But, apologists will tell you to ignore the large volume of misses and focus on the hits.

As with so many other delusional people, he spat our huge volumes of prophecies, then relied on confirmation bias to prove their validity. That people fell for it (and continue to fall for it) is a lesson in psychology.

 

[ExMinister]

I'll defer to your knowledge of the details of Randi's examples, since I haven't picked up the book in a while. Also, the statement about Cayce saying that he hadn't much ability with locating missing persons is probably fourth-level hearsay. I read it somewhere in a bio as I recall. So I'll be glad to retract it, especially since its veracity has no bearing on my argument.

However, my assertion stands. Randi avoided the more interesting examples that have been the subject of argument, instead choosing to submit some of his "epic fails" instead. I take exception to your implication that he could not have done otherwise in a brief overview.

As for Cayce's misdating of the pyramid, there is compelling evidence that the sphinx has been subjected to about a thousand years of water erosion, which calls the accepted date range of its construction, and by association those of the pyramid, seriously into question.

I find these passages much more controversial than those that Randi submitted:

March 1929

“…we may expect a CONSIDERABLE break and bear market, see? This issue being between those of the reserves of nations and of INDIVIDUALS, and will cause—unless another of the more STABLE banking conditions come to the relief—a great disturbance in financial circles. This warning has been given, see?”

1935

This will make for the taking of sides, as it were, by various groups or countries or governments. This will be indicated by the Austrians, Germans, and later the Japanese joining in their influence; unseen, and gradually growing to those affairs where there must become, as it were, almost a direct opposition to that which has been the THEME of the Nazis (the Aryan). For these will gradually make for a growing of animosities.

And unless there is interference from what may be called by many the SUPERNATURAL forces and influences, that are activative in the affairs of nations and peoples, the whole WORLD – as it were – will be set on fire by the militaristic groups and those that are “for” power and expansion in such associations...

1939

You are to have turmoil -- you are to have strife between capital and labor. You are to have a division in your own land, before you have the second of the Presidents that next will not live through his office ... a mob rule!"

Dave Kahn, a long time friend of Cayce's, also wrote a book in which he claimed Cayce warned him about the impending stock market crash. Of course, it was written after the fact.

I suppose I have to come down somewhere in the middle and say that I do not know. BooKitty is right to point out that there may have been many claims made about these events during these years and we are seeing only the ones that stand out because they are "hits." If there are misses, perhaps we just don't know of them. *

The nice thing about the A.R.E. is that they make the readings available to anyone willing to pay the price for access to them, but I just don't have the time to research through the readings from this time period to see what other types of predictions were being made, if any.

I did once search the Cayce data base to see what he was telling people in the months just before the stock market crash. My theory was that if Cayce were genuine, he should have been handing out very strong warnings in the months just before it happened since he had many clients who came to him specifically for financial advice, and even more specifically for stock market advice. What I found was that he was not warning people in any major way, but instead focused on answering questions about the performance of individual stocks, the same as he usually did, even a month or two before the crash. However, even though I tried to do a thorough search, I'm going to admit that I have no way of knowing just how many pertinent readings I might have missed.

As far as the dating of the Great Pyramid, even the A.R.E. seems willing to acknowledge that Cayce's dates are way off. We are talking many thousands of years here. Cayce claimed it was built around 10,500 B.C. The A.R.E. supported some further dating efforts to see if the dates might turn up closer to Cayce's, and what they came up with was a very slight difference only, relative to Cayce's prediction, at around 3500 B.C. So even another thousand years isn't going to make these dates work.

* OK, I was typing this at the same time as MaduroBob was typing his post (above), and he clearly knows much more about the misses!

 

[Rodney]

Why doesn't Edgar Cayce present himself for peer reviewed scientic investigation instead of moaning about Randi? Best way to show the world that a) He has these amazing powers and b) Randi is all talk.

Off you go and let us know when this happens.

Since Cayce died in 1945, that may be difficult. However, there is a man named David Wilcock who claims to be Cayce's reincarnation. See http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl...age_result&resnum=13&ct=image&ved=0CD0Q9QEwDA

 

[BobR]

Those are indeed intriguing but raise many questions. What is the source of those quotes? Is it possible to prove that they were written before the fact? Or were they gleaned from something written after the dates mentioned?

In the source for those quotes, how many other predictions were given that were wrong? If these 3 are the only correct out of say, 200 predictions, they are far less impressive. Remember, Cayce was incredibly prolific. With so many predictions to choose from it would be nearly impossible to not get some right from chance alone.

Some of the points you make are good ones. Some are questions that are easy for you to answer on your own. Some are always open to debate.

All of the Cayce readings from very early were transcribed and dated by one woman who was extremely conscientious about her work. This is not proof, of course. I choose to believe that the quotes I've provided were written at the time that they say that they were in the readings. (If it would cost me a million bucks to believe that, I might not.)

My original point, however, is that these represent stronger evidence of paranormal phenomena than the ones that Randi used, and I submit it was intentional.

 

[BobR]

Since Cayce died in 1945, that may be difficult. However, there is a man named David Wilcock who claims to be Cayce's reincarnation. See http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl...age_result&resnum=13&ct=image&ved=0CD0Q9QEwDA

I'm skeptical.

 

[Rodney]

Cayce is famous for his misses! Such as his claim that (1) 1933 would be a good year, (2) that the Atlantean death ray would be discovered in '58, and (3) a tilting of the Earth’s axis would dive huge seismic turmoil around the globe in the 50s and 60s.

(1) What reading are you talking about?

(2) " '...and this was administered much in the same way or manner as if there were sent out from various central plants that which is termed in the present the Death Ray, or super-cosmic ray, that will be found in the next 25 years.' (2/21/33)

"The Death Ray is the LASER. (Which can also be used for communications; 'all-world broadcast'). Atlantis used large crystals and created extremely destructive Death Ray devices. Edgar Cayce accurately predicted the invention of the laser. The Encyclopedia Britannica tells us that physicists at the University of California at Berkeley announced in The Physical Review the success of the first laser in 1957. This is precisely what Cayce foretold back in 1933." See http://farshores.org/dy17.htm

(3) What reading are you talking about?

 

[BobR]

Cayce is famous for his misses! Such as his claim that 1933 would be a good year, that the Atlantean death ray would be discovered in '58, and a tilting of the Earth’s axis would dive huge seismic turmoil around the globe in the 50s and 60s. But, apologists will tell you to ignore the large volume of misses and focus on the hits.

As with so many other delusional people, he spat our huge volumes of prophecies, then relied on confirmation bias to prove their validity. That people fell for it (and continue to fall for it) is a lesson in psychology.

I hear ya. I say the evidence is inconclusive. (Suppose you prove that Cayce was "delusional," by the way. Hold yourself to the same standards you impose.)

There are those who maintain that Tesla discovered the "death ray" right about then. There are those who maintain that our sudden and unexpected interest in the environment caused earth changes that canceled out the earth changes. Oh, and 1933 WAS a good year, despite the economic indicators. Roosevelt got elected, didn't he? (not my position, ok?)

So yeah, there's an explanation for everything, people hear what they want to, and so on. And confirmation bias, our great cognitive illusion, and so on.

People that expect someone to "predict the future" will always be disappointed, IMHO. Mankind is just too unpredictable. On the other hand, insights from directions such as these into tendencies are interesting to me personally.

 

[BobR]

<My theory was that if Cayce were genuine, he should have been handing out very strong warnings in the months just before it happened since he had many clients who came to him specifically for financial advice, and even more specifically for stock market advice.

That's a bit thin. Perhaps many of his clients were gluttons in a past life and had a karmic need to experience poverty. (I'm half serious: if you take the context of Cayce's world, such a position has internal integrity.)

As far as the dating of the Great Pyramid, even the A.R.E. seems willing to acknowledge that Cayce's dates are way off. We are talking many thousands of years here. Cayce claimed it was built around 10,500 B.C. The A.R.E. supported some further dating efforts to see if the dates might turn up closer to Cayce's, and what they came up with was a very slight difference only, relative to Cayce's prediction, at around 3500 B.C. So even another thousand years isn't going to make these dates work.
[/QUOTE]

Some geologists say the Sphinx is at least from 5000 b. c. due to rain erosion. By extension, the pyramid may well be older as well, given that the same methods are used to date it that have been used to date the Sphinx.

 

[ExMinister]

That's a bit thin. Perhaps many of his clients were gluttons in a past life and had a karmic need to experience poverty. (I'm half serious: if you take the context of Cayce's world, such a position has internal integrity.)

Some geologists say the Sphinx is at least from 5000 b. c. due to rain erosion. By extension, the pyramid may well be older as well, given that the same methods are used to date it that have been used to date the Sphinx.

It is logical to think Cayce might have warned people of the upcoming stock market crash within the few months prior to the event. There is nothing thin about that.

As for the Sphinx, even if the erosion theory were true and even if the pyramid is as much older as the Sphinx, the date is still 5000 years off.

 

[bookitty]

My original point, however, is that these represent stronger evidence of paranormal phenomena than the ones that Randi used, and I submit it was intentional.

Since my questions in regards to those predictions can not be answered in any definitive way, it is hard to say that they are "stronger" evidence.

More importantly, what would be Mr. Randi's motivation? It is more possible that the information was cursory because Mr. Cayce was dead and no longer capable of defrauding people.

 

[Dancing David]

(1) What reading are you talking about?

(2) " '...and this was administered much in the same way or manner as if there were sent out from various central plants that which is termed in the present the Death Ray, or super-cosmic ray, that will be found in the next 25 years.' (2/21/33)

"The Death Ray is the LASER. (Which can also be used for communications; 'all-world broadcast'). Atlantis used large crystals and created extremely destructive Death Ray devices. Edgar Cayce accurately predicted the invention of the laser. The Encyclopedia Britannica tells us that physicists at the University of California at Berkeley announced in The Physical Review the success of the first laser in 1957. This is precisely what Cayce foretold back in 1933." See http://farshores.org/dy17.htm

That is just super Rodney, the death ray of my CD/ROM. It is not much of a 'death ray' now is it?

And it is certainly "super-cosmic ray"

 

[madurobob]

(1) What reading are you talking about?

(2) " '...and this was administered much in the same way or manner as if there were sent out from various central plants that which is termed in the present the Death Ray, or super-cosmic ray, that will be found in the next 25 years.' (2/21/33)

"The Death Ray is the LASER. (Which can also be used for communications; 'all-world broadcast'). Atlantis used large crystals and created extremely destructive Death Ray devices. Edgar Cayce accurately predicted the invention of the laser. The Encyclopedia Britannica tells us that physicists at the University of California at Berkeley announced in The Physical Review the success of the first laser in 1957. This is precisely what Cayce foretold back in 1933." See http://farshores.org/dy17.htm

(3) What reading are you talking about?

1 and 3: they are all over google.

2: Haha! Seriously? The laser^WP is a death ray? Well, the theory behind the laser was laid out by Einstein in the early 1900's. Russian and US scientists worked on theoretical models for many years. A patent was filed in 1957, but there was no working model. The first functioning laser was built by Hughes Laboratories in Malibu, CA in 1960. So, another Cayce failure even if you pretend "death ray" = laser and even if you pretend "discover" means "build a working model after decades of research".

 

[Rodney]

1 and 3: they are all over google.

Ah, yes, Google is the definitive source on Cayce's readings, not the readings themselves. And don't rely on skepdic.com if you want to keep your facts straight.

2: Haha! Seriously? The laser^WP is a death ray? Well, the theory behind the laser was laid out by Einstein in the early 1900's. Russian and US scientists worked on theoretical models for many years. A patent was filed in 1957, but there was no working model. The first functioning laser was built by Hughes Laboratories in Malibu, CA in 1960. So, another Cayce failure even if you pretend "death ray" = laser and even if you pretend "discover" means "build a working model after decades of research".

No need to pretend anything. Regarding the timeline, according to Wikipedia: "In 1957, Charles Hard Townes and Arthur Leonard Schawlow, then at Bell Labs, began a serious study of the infrared laser. As ideas developed, they abandoned infrared radiation to instead concentrate upon visible light. The concept originally was called an optical 'maser'. In 1958, Bell Labs filed a patent application for their proposed optical maser; and Schawlow and Townes submitted a manuscript of their theoretical calculations to the Physical Review, published that year in Volume 112, Issue No. 6.Simultaneously, at Columbia University, graduate student Gordon Gould was working on a doctoral thesis about the energy levels of excited thallium. When Gould and Townes met, they spoke of radiation emission, as a general subject; afterwards, in November 1957, Gould noted his ideas for a “laser”, including using an open resonator (later an essential laser-device component). Moreover, in 1958, Prokhorov independently proposed using an open resonator, the first published appearance (the USSR) of this idea. Elsewhere, in the US, Schawlow and Townes had agreed to an open-resonator laser design — apparently unaware of Prokhorov’s publications and Gould’s unpublished laser work." See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser

Regarding whether the laser can be thought of as a death ray, a September 4, 1972 Time magazine science article was titled: "Now, the Death Ray?" It stated:

"Ordinary bullets and missiles follow arcing trajectories that must be carefully calculated in advance; laser beams are virtually unaffected by the pull of the earth's gravity or by winds, and fly as straight as the proverbial arrow. Traveling at the speed of light (186,000 miles per second), they reach their targets literally in a flash; even a computer-controlled ICBM could not maneuver fast enough to get out of their path.

"Such sophisticated weaponry is probably at least a decade away, but more down-to-earth military uses of the laser may be much closer at hand. TRW Systems in Redondo Beach, Calif., for instance, is working on a portable chemical laser (which produces a beam from the energy released in the reaction of two or more chemicals) that could be carried into battle by a unit of only three men. Aimed like a rifle, it would silently burn a fatal, quarter-inch-wide hole in the body of an enemy soldier up to five miles away. 'Once you've got him in your sights,' says a TRW engineer, 'you've got him. There are no misses.'" See http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,910406-2,00.html

 

[madurobob]

No need to pretend anything. Regarding the timeline, according to Wikipedia: "In 1957, Charles Hard Townes and Arthur Leonard Schawlow, then at Bell Labs, began a serious study of the infrared laser. As ideas developed, they abandoned infrared radiation to instead concentrate upon visible light. The concept originally was called an optical 'maser'. In 1958, Bell Labs filed a patent application for their proposed optical maser; and Schawlow and Townes submitted a manuscript of their theoretical calculations to the Physical Review, published that year in Volume 112, Issue No. 6.Simultaneously, at Columbia University, graduate student Gordon Gould was working on a doctoral thesis about the energy levels of excited thallium. When Gould and Townes met, they spoke of radiation emission, as a general subject; afterwards, in November 1957, Gould noted his ideas for a “laser”, including using an open resonator (later an essential laser-device component). Moreover, in 1958, Prokhorov independently proposed using an open resonator, the first published appearance (the USSR) of this idea. Elsewhere, in the US, Schawlow and Townes had agreed to an open-resonator laser design — apparently unaware of Prokhorov’s publications and Gould’s unpublished laser work." See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser

Exactly. Just as the wikipedia timeline shows, there was no working laser in 1958 (that's why i linked to the wiki article in my post). There were only theoretical models and patents - and nothing was "discovered".

Regarding whether the laser can be thought of as a death ray, a September 4, 1972 Time magazine science article was titled: "Now, the Death Ray?" It stated:

"Ordinary bullets and missiles follow arcing trajectories that must be carefully calculated in advance; laser beams are virtually unaffected by the pull of the earth's gravity or by winds, and fly as straight as the proverbial arrow. Traveling at the speed of light (186,000 miles per second), they reach their targets literally in a flash; even a computer-controlled ICBM could not maneuver fast enough to get out of their path.

"Such sophisticated weaponry is probably at least a decade away, but more down-to-earth military uses of the laser may be much closer at hand. TRW Systems in Redondo Beach, Calif., for instance, is working on a portable chemical laser (which produces a beam from the energy released in the reaction of two or more chemicals) that could be carried into battle by a unit of only three men. Aimed like a rifle, it would silently burn a fatal, quarter-inch-wide hole in the body of an enemy soldier up to five miles away. 'Once you've got him in your sights,' says a TRW engineer, 'you've got him. There are no misses.'" See http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,910406-2,00.html

So, its now nearly forty years after that article that said we'd have laser weapons in ten years. It is over fifty years since Cayce said we would discover the "death ray". Where are they?

 

[BobR]

Since my questions in regards to those predictions can not be answered in any definitive way, it is hard to say that they are "stronger" evidence.

More importantly, what would be Mr. Randi's motivation? It is more possible that the information was cursory because Mr. Cayce was dead and no longer capable of defrauding people.

How is it MORE possible, since we can't comment on Mr. Randi's motivations in any "definitive" way? It is equally possible that Mr. Randi has adopted the prejudice that everyone laying any sort of claim to paranormal abilities is defrauding people, and is therefore attempting to suppress any evidence to the contrary.

If you wish to say that it is the same thing to dismiss a prediction on the basis of provenance that you do not consider verifiable (having apparently formed the point of view with limited investigation) as it is to dismiss one on the basis that it is intrinsically inaccurate, then we don't have much common ground for further discussion.

 

[dlorde]

So, its now nearly forty years after that article that said we'd have laser weapons in ten years. It is over fifty years since Cayce said we would discover the "death ray". Where are they?

The US military has been working on them, with variable success, for some time, and at huge expense, including Ronnie's abortive 'Star Wars' program. After that false start, it now has various laser systems in prototype for aircraft, ship, and ground vehicle deployment. There are enormous technical problems, including bulk & weight, power requirements, heat dissipation, air diffraction, and optics, but they feel they've cracked most of them. Time will tell - and countermeasures are not as difficult to implement as for kinetic weapons...

So it seems to me that the laser turns out not to be very practical as a death ray. IIRC for several years after it was first demonstrated, it was popularly though to be an interesting discovery waiting for an application. Hardly the foretold 'Atlantean Death Ray'.

 

[dlorde]

... It is equally possible that Mr. Randi has adopted the prejudice that everyone laying any sort of claim to paranormal abilities is defrauding people, and is therefore attempting to suppress any evidence to the contrary.

Frankly, it would not surprise me if Randi has adopted such a Dawkinsian prejudice, given his experience of psychic abilities and his knowledge as a magician.

However, he's a cussed and tenacious character who likes a paranormal challenge, and it seems to me more likely that he would rather expose evidence of 'hard to explain' phenomena as fraudulent or mistaken than suppress it. I suspect that he just decided that if some of an individual's claims were fraudulent or mistaken, the likelihood was that they all were. Life's too short...

 

[bookitty]

How is it MORE possible, since we can't comment on Mr. Randi's motivations in any "definitive" way? It is equally possible that Mr. Randi has adopted the prejudice that everyone laying any sort of claim to paranormal abilities is defrauding people, and is therefore attempting to suppress any evidence to the contrary.

That can hardly be the case. Most people who lay claim to paranormal abilities are those who see ghosts, or have prophetic dreams. The rest of the time they are average citizens who think of themselves as a tiny bit fey.

Mr. Randi goes after those who make their living by claiming paranormal abilities. For example, the MDC is only open to those with media presence. It is extremely probable that he feels these people are frauds. Given that none of the better known psychics have taken/passed the MDC, he may have reason to think so.

You are saying that Mr. Randi purposely left out material that may have shown Mr. Cayce to be psychic because of that prejudice. That's a strong accusation. In defense of this accusation, you present material that even you can not verify.

If you have anything that proves, instead of suggests, Mr. Cayce's paranormal abilities, then your argument may have some validity. Otherwise, I can only assume that you are attacking Mr. Randi in order to avoid challenging your own beliefs.

 

[Segnosaur]

I don't know. Define "strong". My position is that Randi intentionally omitted evidence that was a good deal stronger than the evidence he provided.

Randi used a sample of the very large body of Cayce materials that was not a representative sample of that body of work. He pretty much restricted his examination to material having to do with missing person location, which Cayce himself warned that he was unable to do, and "life readings" having to do with past lives in Atlantis or whatever, which are unprovable one way or the other.

Now, if Randi really wanted to refute Cayce, why didn't he go to the thousands of instances of readings which purport to show Cayce diagnosing illnesses from hundreds of miles away and prescribing treatments, and show those to be "flim-flam"?

I'm not that familiar with Cayce, but if I were to make a guess, I'd probably say that the reason why Randi didn't bother discussing Cayce's illness diagnoses/treatment is because, since they happened decades ago, there is no way to determine if any of those 'treatments' were the result of the placebo effect. So, why waste time trying to debunk something which, at this time, cannot be easily debunked because you can't run proper double-blind tests.

On the other hand, success in "missing person location" would be a pretty easy thing to verify.... either you find the person or you don't. Any "failures" are much more self-evident.

I must say that Randi doesn't appear to me to be a skeptic at all on the matter of the existence of paranormal phenomena. Rather he looks like a confirmed advocate of the idea that they do not exist.

I'm sure its been explained to you plenty of times, but just in case...

Being 'skeptical' does not necessarily mean you have to be so open-minded your brain leaks out. Being skeptical simply implies that you go where the evidence takes you. Given the fact that Randi has looked at many many cases of "paranormal activity" and every one has proven to be a bust, it is not being anti-skeptical if you assume that future investigations will likewise also turn out to be a 'bust'.

 

[Rodney]

So, its now nearly forty years after that article that said we'd have laser weapons in ten years. It is over fifty years since Cayce said we would discover the "death ray". Where are they?

I guess it was just a coincidence that in 1933 Cayce mentioned that a death ray would be found in the next 25 years, that work on the laser was going on in the late 1950s, and that a 1972 Time article associated the laser with a death ray.