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UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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I have NEVER claimed 100% eyewitness accuracy. There is simply NO need. We have much research on human perception and psychology to inform us in these cases. Your position simply denies the capabilities of human understanding and the scientific method and that is pure nonsense!.

Please give us the sources that explain how to determine what an eyewitness reports is accurate or not. Is this a "gut" feel based on what you desire from the witness or is it something that can be entered into some mathmatical formula that proves a witness was accurate? You have repeatedly made this claim about how research can tell us if a witness is misperceiving or suffering from psychological issues. Yet, I have yet to see you demonstrate how one can perform this or what studies you base this upon.
 
After reading your venom laced response, I suggest you take a chill pill and stop foaming at the mouth.

That’s a plain ignorant statement from you Astrophotographer and it totally misrepresents my stated position on the subject. I reference the Battelle Study and anyone who cares to can go and read it for themselves. Any one who cares to can cite sections of it if they want in any way they reasonably care to and for any point or reason they can reasonably justify. The study is in the public domain. I merely point out that whatever else might have been said or done, a primary finding of the study was that at least 1 in 5 UFO reports examined (over 3000 of them) turned out to be inexplicable in terms of mundane events.

Yet the authors wrote the following:


it is considered to be highly improbable that any of the reports of unidentified aerial objects examined in this study represent observations of technological developments outside the range of present-day scientific knowledge (p. 94)

The also had problems with the data:

the data were subjective, consisting of qualified estimates of physical characteristics rathre than of precise measurements. Furthermore, most of the reports were not reduced to written form immediately. The time between sighting and report varied from one day to several years. Both of these factors introduced an element of doubt concerning the validity of the original data, and increased it s subjectivity. This was intensified by the recognized inability of the average individual to estimate speeds, distances, and sizes of objects in the air with any degree of accuracy...The danger lies in the possibility of forgetting the subjectivity of the data at the time that conclusions are drawn from the analysis. It must be emphasized, again and again, that the conclusions contained in this report are based NOT on facts, but on what many observers thought and estimated the true facts to be. (p 3-4).

Of course, we beat this to death long ago. You want to say that they could not identify all the sources but that is really not the issue here. If one can not positively identify the sources after many years with some data that was less than reliable (see above), then so what? It proves nothing. There conclusion that these UFO reprots did not indicate anything exotic (or whatever you want to call it) is the bottom line.

Again this is a totally ignorant statement. In the Condon Report for example you will also find cases where the conclusion was reached that they were not explicable in terms of mundane events… (for example Case 2 – Lakenheath, England, 13-14th August 1956: “In conclusion, although conventional or natural explanations cannot be ruled out, the probability of such seems low in this case and the probability that at least one genuine UFO was involved appears to be fairly high” or Case 21 – Colorado Springs, Colorado, 13th May 1967: “This must remain as one of the most puzzling radar cases on record, and no conclusion is possible at this time” or Case 46 – McMinnville, Oregon 11th May 1950: This is one of the few UFO reports in whicvh all factors investigated – geometric, psychological, and physical – appear to be consistent with the assertion that an extraordinary flyinbg object, silvery, metallic, disk-shaped, tens of meters in diameter, and evidently artificial, flew within sight of two witnesses”) …but of course UFO debunkers have never read the actual report! Instead they rely on Condon’s summary, which is totally at odds with what was concluded in the body of the report itself! In fact out of the 63 cases investigated in the Condon Report 29% or them remain unexplained to this day! That is almost 1 in 3 Astrophotographer! Which is a higher incidence of unexplained cases that even the Battelle study! Perhaps I should begin referencing Condon instead of the Battelle study!

Of course, you are unaware about the revelations concerning the Lakenheath case. Recent research indicates much of what was stated in the Condon study and McDonald report was inaccurate. Most of the pilots have been contacted and they deny there was any serious "cat and mouse" game that occurred. The point of this is that the cases were less than satisfactory. If you read Menzel's UFO enigma, he discussed many of these "unexplained" cases. You also ignore what the National Academy of Sciences wrote about the report:
It is the unanimous opinion that this has been a very creditable effort to apply objectively the relevant techniques of science to the solution of the UFO problem. The report recognizes that there remain UFO sightings that are not easily explained. The report does suggest, however, so many reasonable and possible directions in which an explanation may eventually be found, that there seems to be no reason to attribute them to an extraterrestrial source without evidence that is much more convincing. The report also shows how difficult it is to apply scientific methods to the occasional transient sightings with any chance of success.

Yes and that would be that from 1 in 5 (Battelle) to 1 in 3 (Condon) UFO cases are inexplicable in terms of mundane events! PLUS I have already outlined HOW the study of UFOs might progress in my last reply to you! How can you not have seen it? Are you blind? An idiot? Just plain stupid? What other conclusions can I draw from the fact that I outlined a direct answer to you on that very question in my previous reply to YOU and you fail to acknowledge it?

You gave absolutely nothing but a repeat of anything that has already been done. It is not an original idea. Resorting to name-calling is not the way of clearly presenting your idea.

Sturrock? That the panel failed to study such good UFO cases is perhaps an indictment on the panel rather than me!

These were scientists interested in presenting evidence for UFOs to a panel of independent scientists. Apparently, they felt these cases were inadequate. What does that say for your choice of cases to present here?



Oh you are really a nasty piece of work AstroP. This is an utterly false statement! For example for Rogue River I have specifically ruled out MANY times that we can conclude anything other than “UFO” for that case and have SPECIFICALLY stated on MANY occasions that we CANNOT and MUST not conclude aliens. Similarly the White Sands case.

Everyone agreed it was an unknown but suggested it could have been a blimp (or, in my case, an aircraft seen from an odd angle like the Catalina island case). We did not say it was absolutely a blimp/aircraft but it seemed likely that this was the case. Your response was to reject any possiblity of it being an aircraft or a blimp simply because you say so. If that is not dismissive, I don't know what is. You have closed your mind from any other possiblity.

I have clearly demonstrated that you are a hypocritical liar… (there I’ve said it) you and others merely contend the same for me but have utterly failed to produce any evidence of such. I HAVE presented the evidence that clearly demonstrates you to be a hypocritical liar, while you and you fellow travellers in this thread utterly fail to do so for me. What does THAT tell you?

It is your opinion and it tells me that you need to look in the mirror sometime and think about what you are stating. If you want to call me a liar, that is your right. However, I will let the others judge on if you are correct. As far as the "evidence" you keep presenting, look at how many people you have persuaded in this thread. Why is it that your evidence fails to compel. If you can't get anybody to agree with you here, how good will your presentation be when you attempt to get funding for a scientific study? Perhaps you need to pay attention to what the Sturrock panel of scientists wrote after seeing UFOlogy's "best evidence":

It appears that most current UFO investigations are carried out at a level of rigor that is not consistent with prevailing standards of scientific research....It may therefore be valuable to carefully evaluate UFO reports to extract information about unusual phenomena currently unknown to science. However, to be credible to the scientific community, such evaluations must take place with a spirit of objectivity and a willingness to evaluate rival hypotheses (my emphasis).(Sturrock The UFO Enigma p. 121).
 
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Argh…

I have NEVER claimed it was the “smoking gun” either.
Wrong, in your reply to Jocce you stated…

Yes, I agree that the "routing slip" is the "smoking gun" (to resort to the vernacular) but I disagree that other sources cannot be used also. Be that as it may, I can see your point.
Like I said, contradict yourself much?

More, there is NO rational reason for Pirouzi to lie about such occurrences… it adds nothing to the primary account… it makes it even more strange in fact…
You crack me up… you just provided the reason. He was being interviewed by the National Enquirer and stood to win a million dollars for his story!

(but only got $5,000… oh well, better luck next time)

And if it “adds nothing to the primary account” as you claim then why did Maccabee use it to try and make his case for “aliens”? The case should be able stand on it’s own without it if your “smoking gun” had any merit.

You state Astrophotographer and Puddle Duck have listed three other “contradictions” …you do not list them and I am not about to search pages of the thread to see if that is correct or not. Besides if those persons DID raise issues, I would have dealt with them already.
They did and you tried resulting in an EPIC FAIL every time. I’m not surprised you want to pretend it never happened and not look up them up but you do so at your own peril…

Go on then, explain them by conventional means!
Try to pay more attention to what’s been said…

If the capabilities of the UFO DO match those of Soviet technology of the time then you MUST tell us HOW they do. Merely stating that it is so does NOT make it so.
Merely stating they we haven’t does not make it so.

IF you have a reasonable mundane explanations that FIT the evidence, then I would like to see them.
Quit hiding your head in the sand and open your eyes…

The fine folks of this forum are trying to educate you.
 
I have clearly demonstrated that you are a hypocritical liar… (there I’ve said it) you and others merely contend the same for me but have utterly failed to produce any evidence of such. I HAVE presented the evidence that clearly demonstrates you to be a hypocritical liar, while you and you fellow travellers in this thread utterly fail to do so for me. What does THAT tell you?


It tells me that you still don't understand the scientific method, the concept of burden of proof, what is meant by arguments from incredulity and ignorance, and that you appear to have some sort of fundamental reading comprehension problem and/or willful ignorance. Several people in this thread have attempted to help you with every one of those deficiencies of yours. People have offered cogent explanations and good advice. But you still refuse to take responsibility for your own failure and appear to be blaming everyone else for the fact that you continue to reject science, reason, rationality, good advice, and clear simple explanations in favor of clinging to your delusion.

Do you even know what the logical fallacy of argument from ignorance is? Do you understand the logical fallacy of argument from incredulity? You can easily look them up on Wiki or ask one of the science teachers there at your high school to explain them. Once you understand those concepts (if you have the intelligence of a 12 year old), you'll be able to see that your entire position is built on those fallacies. Then, instead of living with that paranoid misperception that people are abusing you, you'll be thanking us for pointing out exactly how you've failed.
 
If any of these 'skeptics' are meant for something better, then they will have a 'UFO' encounter that shakes them out of their pseudo-skepticism and sets them on a long and difficult path of growth.
I've posted my UFO encounter. I had to wrestle with a seemingly unearthly explanation. Thankfully it was only for a minute or so or I would, to this day, be ignorant of the real explanation. How stupid would I be if I continued to believe I had seen a huge, silently moving triangular craft when it was just a flock of geese all along? If anything, the event strengthened my skepticism by showing me how easily our minds can be deceived.
 
The support from a true believer like Limbo would be a warning sign to any scientist, but for Rramjet this is no clue that he might be betting on the wrong horse.

welll yes, especially as he doesn't agree that U.F.O's are aliens
Why do so many people feel at liberty to assume that aliens and technology have anything to do with the UFO phenomenon in any way shape or form? Has Hollywood and comic books gotten to ya? Influenced your thinking in subtle ways?
:D
sounds a bit hippocritical imo
 
If any of these 'skeptics' are meant for something better, then they will have a 'UFO' encounter that shakes them out of their pseudo-skepticism and sets them on a long and difficult path of growth.


I shamelessly admit that I'm a hard-core skeptic of UFO's being alien artifacts. But you know what, I'd really love being shaken by a UFO encounter, really. It would be the most exciting thing ever to happen to me.

But if reality says otherwise, so be it. "The world is not required to be in perfect harmony with human ambition".

I once saw an oval-shape object in the sky, glowing with the reflected sunlight. I could not identify it because I lost it behind a mountain. Weird, right?. Man-made flying craft are not oval-shaped, right?. Was I shaken by that "encounter"?. No. It could've been an alien ship, granted, but in my mind it was far likely to have been a plane seen under a special perspective, where the wings got concealed by the fuselage.

You know, each one can interpret an unidentified encounter as they wish. Some prefer the likely, probable and down to earth option. Others incline for the more complicated, elaborated and "world changing" option of alien beings evolved on distant planets...
 
So then what kind of evidence would be required to start an investigation?
Two hints:

Ray Hyman’s categorical directive: “Before we try to explain something, we should be sure it actually happened.”

and

Hall's corollary: “Before we do research on something, we should make sure it exists.”
 
Which is WRONG, Ramjet. Get that through your thick skull, PLEASE. We ARE NOT CLAIMINg that it's mundane. WE ARE SAYING that until a better explanation is provided, we must ASSUME that it is mundane because mundane explanations are the only ones we KNOW exist.

Sheesh.
This *so* bears repeating.

RRamjet, I'd love to hear you address this point.
 
Yawn...

They only take that form because of our modern mythology.
So exactly who or what are "they" Mr. Know It All?

On the off-chance that one of you jokers wants to actually learn, I recommend:

Flying Saucers : A Modern Myth of Things Seen in the Skies
Jung’s book is briefly discussed in the Condon Study… I’m not sure it supports your point of view. (see below)

Alien Identities : Ancient Insights into Modern UFO Phenomena
Angels and Aliens
If it’s good enough for Whitley Strieber… no thanks, I’ll pass.

Passport to Magonia
One UFOlogist’s excuse for the failure of UFOlogy to produce any evidence to support the ETH… sorry, I’m not buying it.

From the Condon Study...

Psychological Aspects of UFO Reports
http://www.ncas.org/condon/text/s6chap03.htm

[emphasis mine]

"There are three broad sources of error in reporting which are of significance to UFO research:

1. real stimuli which are misidentified
2. unreal stimuli perceived as real; and
3. deliberate falsification.
"


And on Jung…

"Noting the tendency to welcome news about "saucers" and to suppress skepticism Jung raises the interesting question "why should it be more desirable for saucers to exist than not?" He feels that their appearance since World War II is a reflection of the anxieties of a nuclear age, in which man possesses the capability of actually destroying the world. Saucers may represent man's anxiety that the end of the world is here, or may represent a superhuman source of salvation. Historically, man's anxiety and his quest for salvation have been projected in many legendary and religious forms, but in an era of rapid technological and scientific advance including space flight, it is not suprising to find "scientific" rather than religious imagery."

My opinion?

Q: How does the UTH (“ultra-terrestrial” hypothesis, not to be confused with the PSH, psychosocial or psychocultural hypothesis) add to our present body of scientific knowledge?

A: It doesn’t, it replaces one unknown (aliens) with another (“aliens”) that’s inherently untestable.

Seems to me that something that hypothetically exists outside our reality (or “dimension” if you like) is exactly that by definition… forever inaccessible to us and vice versa. In other words, never the twain shall meet. Otherwise it couldn’t exist in our reality (even briefly) unless it was in fact part of our reality (made of the same “stuff” if you will)… in which case, what’s the difference?

But I digress…
 
This *so* bears repeating.

RRamjet, I'd love to hear you address this point.

He won't. He'll probably repeat that when he claims something we ask for evidence and vice-versa, and that we've never explained why it shouldn't be so. Ramjet either doesn't read well, doesn't understand, or doesn't care.

Willful ignorance is the worst kind.
 
Anywho, I looked at the Campeche case and I feel this is a true ufo sighting, the oil fields explanation doesn't match with what the crew of the aircraft described. I don't understand why Rramjet isn't using this case.

No, the video evidence is more than enough to prove they were oil wells. There was data in the video and this was discussed ad infinitum here in this forum. Eventually, everbody agreed that the camera was pointed towards the distant oil wells and the apparent motion was due to the aircraft itself. If you can demonstrate they were not oil well fires, feel free to do so. However, I have an extensive discussion about the data at:

http://home.comcast.net/~tprinty/UFO/Mexico04f.htm

and

http://home.comcast.net/~tprinty/UFO/Mexico04g.htm
 
Rramjet, you have been bleating about Mach 2+ and wanting me to prove that the F-4 could not make Mach-2 with drop tanks. I have already put up the proof, but you did not read it, or you rejected it out of hand “because I am not an F-4 pilot”. And, you have continually asked for proof long after it was available.
Here is a chart that shows the indicated airspeed strutural envelope
h ttp://forums.randi.org/picture.php?albumid=312&pictureid=1911
as a clean/Sparrow load limit. By referring to the stores limitation, the empty Fletcher tank is limited to mach-1.6 over 22,000 ft.
(The heavy line that goes up the 750 knot line to intercept the Mach-2.0 line at 30,000 ft and follows it, is the max continuous speed limit) for the airframe
.

But I’ll go through it again just for you
1.- Open h ttp://forums.randi.org/picture.php?albumid=312&pictureid=1911
Look at the graph. There are altitude labels in the Y axis, and indicated airspeed labels in the X axis. There is also a family of curves going from M-.4 to M-2.58.
(Actually, the airspeed is in calibrated airspeed but as long as the air data computer is working, that is what you are seeing, without it working, the difference is single digits. I put this in because if you found out the difference, you would accuse me of not knowing anything about the F-4. I try to keep all of this as simple as I can, because it can get complicated fast and the more complicated, the more people get confused.)

2. Look at the box in the upper right and note the normal limits are a heave solid line and transient limits are a heave dashed line. Look at the airspeeds and see the heavy dashed line going vertically at the 750 KIAS point. Follow it up to 30k ft. where it jinks left to 700 KIAS, and up again to where it intercepts the M-2.0 curve, where it follows that curve to the top. This is airframe structural limits

3. Now go to
w wwmstewart.net/subob/fighters/f4.pdf
This is the PDF that has some pages from sections 1 & 5 of the dash one. Open it and go down to page 12 where you will see a table labeled external stores limitations.

4.- Under the column labeled “store”, move down 3 rows to the block labeled “Sargeant-Fletcher 370 gal. Wing tank”. Now move 7 & 8 columns right where you will see airspeeds of 750 & 550 KIAS and Mach of 1.6. The tanks are limited to 550 kias with fuel in the tank and 750 when empty. To use these, the lower speed takes precedence, so the “limiting structural airspeed for the wing tanks” are (assuming they are empty) will be 750 knots up to 22k ft and m-1.6 from there on.

5. This is the limiting structural speeds for that configuration. So, Mach 2 – impossible.

Now take a look at this chart. I originally had some problems getting it up, it is here now. This is the “operational limitations” for the eight missiles and various fuel loads. Open this graph

w ww.yvonneclaireadams.com/HostedStuff/More%20Charts/Level%20Flight%20Performance%20Envelope.gif

Notice the three sets of curves being from left to right; stall speed, mil power max speed, and full burner max speed. Note also that each of the fuel configurations of no-externals, centerline only, wing only, and all three bags of gas, numbered 1-4. The curve for this situation is #3. The sweet spot for this is at 36k ft and you get just shy of M-1.55.

Notice that you can’t bust the Mach using only Mil Power, it takes some burner.

So Ramjet, will you finally admit that the tale of chasing the UFO at Mach-2+ just didn’t happen?


Akhenaten, nice photoshop. The first thing that popped out was the UK civilian registration letters on a bird from a Korean base. That one had me scratching my head for awhile, till I looked at the blimp. Not only did you put the Shrike backwards, but also its pylon.. The centerline tank looked strange. I had to leave the computer till the rear of the brain finally got that it too is backward. It still looks a little odd even after mentally flipping it. Maybe I wasn’t used to seeing it at that particular angle. Was the big jamming pod on the bird or did you put it on too? I never carried that one.
 
Yeah, the jammer was there, but everything else is pretty suspect. I thought it was a Wild Weasel at first, but I now I think not.

Here's that flight envelope chart:

Level%20Flight%20Performance%20Envelope.gif



:)
 
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