UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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Well, actually the website you reference it is NOT as good as citing first hand sources.

What is a "first hand source"? An anecdotal account of a story that seems to shift depending on who tells it and who hears it? Give me the actual data and records. Since you do not have that (and express no desire to obtain any information outside of your UFO sources), the interviews can be considered subject to error. This has been the argument since day one. I asked you long ago how you plan to propose to study UFOs scientifically. If it involves reciting only the UFO literature and consider nothing else as a potential path of investigation then it is not science at all. It is a close-minded approach based solely on what you want to believe.
 
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Then we can see that the statement ACTUALLY applies to YOU! It is as if your guilty conscience is making you write the words, but your ego just cannot bring itself to appropriately designate the subject.

If you can point to ANYWHERE in my posts where I have done the things you claim, then you might have a point… but of course you cannot, I have been consistent throughout. On the other hand I have been providing example after example where YOU have been doing ALL those things! Ha! You have been proved a hypocrite (at the very least)!
The highlighted sentence saved me from reading 750+ of your other posts. Thanks again.
:popcorn2
 
In that case the pilots of a military jet mistook oil well fires for UFOs. As I have explained before, under the circumstance this is entirely understandable. In that case there were operating well understood principles of perception that enabled OUR understanding of how such a mistake could occur.

What do you think the pilot mistook for a UFO in the Iran case?
 
I’ll be back later with more but I want to set the record straight first…

What name do you give a person who, like Astrophotographer, wilfully misrepresents and outright falsifies the historical record about what you and others had to say?

<snip>

As you can see, I DO have access, AND have noted, information YOU rely on for your OPINIONS in the matter… and my contention have been PROVED correct! Dr Maccabee has FIRST HAND witness testimony. YOU (and Klass) have SECOND and THIRD HAND (at best) opinion. Can you dispute that now?
Why are you attacking Tim for something I brought up? I’m the one who originally called into question Maccabee’s use of anonymous sources! That’s hearsay, not first hand witness testimony.

Furthermore, I believe the record will show Tim didn’t use Klass’ anonymous sources to make any arguments here until after you brought it up.
 
So, where are we up to...

We have Rogue River where reliable witnesses described a UFO. And I claimed that as evidence that UFOs exist. To support that case (if people questioned "reliable")
We have the White Sands case, where a group of military experts set out to film and triangulate UFOs and they achieved their goal! I entered this case as further evidence that UFOs exist. Then I embarked upon the (perhaps more difficult task) of showing that not only did UFOs exist, but that "aliens" existed also. To do this I entered onto the record the Tehran case. Here we have expert military witnesses (including radar) describing an object performing extraordinary maneuvers (perhaps this is the "extraordinary evidence" Sagan refers to..?), seemingly under intelligent control. I entered this case because the "maneuvers" indicated something beyond human technological capacity AND given that fact, the intelligent control suggested "alien". I then entered the Father Gill case onto the record because it had actual "beings" observed and testified to. Here then is evidence for "aliens". Now we are still "stuck" in Tehran ...but I am sure Father Gill will get a run soon :)

Blimp, rocket, pilots flying around disoriented in the night with faulty equipment and a priest seeing things.

Yep sure proves aliens.
 
Seconded. :p

At this point I think my theory that RR is either an alien or a traitor to the human race is all but proved. How else could he be so knowledgeable about alien capabilities? One more wild speculation should seal the deal.
 
Perhaps then Marduk you could begin like this:

"I believe UFOs to be a bunch of woo." Then ask yourself... "What has led me to this belief - on what verified evidence are my beliefs based?" Then go from there...

I have been presenting the evidence for why I believe what I do about UFOs and "aliens" - you on the other hand have been content to sit back and ridicule my beliefs (with comments like you just made) and this allows you to happily fail examine your own belief systems. Yours is the easy way out Marduk. Won't you at least try to apply a little thoughtful skepticism and scientific method to your own belief system?

Are you a forerunner sent here to open our eyes and prepare us for the coming alien visit?
 
What is a "first hand source"? An anecdotal account of a story that seems to shift depending on who tells it and who hears it? Give me the actual data and records. Since you do not have that (and express no desire to obtain any information outside of your UFO sources), the interviews can be considered subject to error. This has been the argument since day one. I asked you long ago how you plan to propose to study UFOs scientifically. If it involves reciting only the UFO literature and consider nothing else as a potential path of investigation then it is not science at all. It is a close-minded approach based solely on what you want to believe.

A “true believer”: One who questions the verifiable evidence rather than allowing the evidence to inform or otherwise alter their own entrenched beliefs.

I think you are confusing “anecdote” with “testimony”.

Most definitions of “anecdote” maintain it is a short narrative of an interesting, amusing, or biographical incident. "Testimony" on the other hand is usually something like a solemn attestation as to the truth of the matter or an assertion offering firsthand authentication of a fact.

What we have in the Rogue River case is testimony by reliable witnesses provided in the presence of an OSI agent. In the case of White Sands we have specialist military observers using specialist equipment to film and triangulate UFOs and then passing that information on to a team of specialist analysts who then developed an official report. In the case of the Tehran incident we have military personnel providing testimony in an official debriefing in the presence of (at the very least) superior officers and intelligence agents, from which was also developed an official report.

These are not “fireside chats” where anecdotes about “what I saw the other night in the sky” are retold with certain amusement. Not at all, they are testimonial situations where the gathering of FACTS is an imperative. These testimonials then form a dataset which we may assess for information that might inform us as to the nature of the events in question.

Of course that does not mean that such testimonials are error free. Far from it. However we are not without means to deal with potential errors. We have for example an extensive body of research literature on human perception to inform us of precisely where we might expect to encounter errors in such testimonials and we can then take this into account when assessing the veracity of the data contained within the testimonials. We also have an extensive body of research literature on human behaviour that we may also utilise to inform as to the veracity of the data contained within the testimonials. We also have the history of UFO research itself to inform us.

Together all this information allows us to form positive conclusions about the data we are presented with. To contend that we are incapable of doing so under such circumstances is to deny the capabilities and findings of scientific research. And that is patently an absurd proposition.

More, if you want a “scientific study of UFOs” then one need look no further than the Battelle Study (Blue Book Special Report No. 14 - (http://www.ufocasebook.com/specialreport14.pdf). If you are mooting prospective scientific studies you would begin by making predictions from the extant data sets and then set about seeing if those predictions can be verified. Predictions such as the repeatability of form and/or other UFO characteristics (and interestingly in the Tehran case we do have repeatability of form where a UFO with similar shape to the “starfish” Pirouzi described and drew in 1976 was filmed in 1992 - (http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5t...0dec-1992_tech)).

We can conduct scientific studies looking at other aspects of the phenomena as well, such as an assessment of the actual witness testimony for characteristics, or an assessment of the witnesses themselves in terms of psychology.

So as we can see, the scientific study of UFOs is not beyond the capabilities of predictive methodology.

It is only those with closed minds who cannot countenance this fact and only those with closed minds that deny the subject is worthy of scientific investigation.
 
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I have NEVER claimed the Mooy memo was a “complete detailed account of ALL events on the night. (I don’t actually remember stating “accurate” either because “accurate” and “summary” can be somewhat contradictory when used in conjunction…)
You claimed it was the “smoking gun” and now you’re claiming it’s not an accurate summary of events as they occurred because it’s not detailed. Details are not events.

Contradict yourself much?

A summary is usually and abridged (or condensed) outline of the main points, not a detailed account, and thus it will usually be missing precise details about the subject. It may be more accurately termed “concise” rather than “accurate”.
Accurate means accurate, summary means summary. Anybody can see what you’re trying to do here… you’re trying to redefine Pirouzi’s account as “details” that were left out when what they really are is additional uncorroborated events that were not included in the corroborated (by Mooy et. al.) summary of events… thus making it an incomplete (and therefore inaccurate) summary of events if they actually occurred.

How can the Mooy memo (aka "routing slip") be the “smoking gun” if it’s not an accurate summary of events as they occurred?

Seems to me you have two choices here…

A. Throw out Pirouzi’s account because it contradicts the Mooy memo.
B. Throw out the Mooy memo because it contradicts Pirouzi’s account.

You can’t have it both ways. I know which one I would choose if I wanted to maintain any semblance of credibility as an objective researcher…

Thus when you make a lengthy list of case details beginning with “This isn’t mentioned in the Mooy memo…” you can now understand WHY the precise details you list might not be in the memo…
No, I can’t. Those aren’t “details” I listed, those are additional events that aren’t included in, and contradict, the (defacto) official record.

How you think you can justify, for example, Pirouzi’s claim that four other aircraft were involved in the incident as a mere “detail” is beyond me…

You would be on a sounder footing if you could point to contradictions between the witness statements and the memo… and in one place you (attempt to) DO that.
You forgot the other three that Astrophotogrpaher and Puddle Duck have already pointed out so that makes at least four total now… it’s not looking good for Pirouzi’s (and by extension, Jafari’s) version of events.

According to you I stated (although you don’t provide the actual reference so I may NOT have…):
The pilot reported that “every time he came close to the object, it affected his radio and all his instruments” (including “navigation aids”).

…but again, Mooy’s memo is a summary, an abridged version of events… ALL the details are NOT included.
You consider Pirouzi’s claim that the first pilot attempted to intercept the object more than once and his equipment malfunctioned every single time as opposed to only once a mere “detail” as opposed to a contradiction? No wonder you believe in “aliens”…

By the way, I did provide a reference to your statements in the first quote of that post.

There are NO discrepancies, you have merely pointed out details that were NOT included in the Mooy memo. The memo would NOT be a summary if it included ALL the details in the case.
Events are not details. Events not included in a summary of events are called discrepancies. Your attempt to arbitrarily redefine the English language to suit your needs has been duly noted.

Oh come on! Given the capabilities demonstrated by the UFO you don’t think it could have made a clean getaway?
What capabilities? There is nothing in the Mooy memo that can’t be explained by conventional means. The fact of the matter is we have nothing more than anecdotal accounts to go by in this case and as everybody (but you apparently) knows, anecdotal accounts are subject to error.

The question should be how does a UFO demonstrating a number of capabilities consistent with known [and some perhaps unknown to, or never before experienced by, the pilots] Soviet interceptor technology at the time make a clean getaway? I’d have to say by pwning the Iranian intercepts and not landing…

I have consistently presented the evidence in the Rogue River, White Sands, Tehran and Father Gill cases. If the UFO debunkers cannot explain those cases in reasonable mundane terms that FIT the evidence - it then allows me to put forward speculative hypotheses that DO fit the evidence.
But these cases have been explained in “reasonable mundane terms” that do fit the evidence allowing for the known possibility of human error. The fact of the matter is you can’t reasonably rule out those explanations out without denying the reality of human error so your “speculative” (and most extraordinary) hypothesis is falsified by default. What seems more reasonable to you, “alien” technology that we have absolutely no objective evidence for or knowledge of, or human error that we have the whole of human history to draw our conclusions from?

Bottom line is there will always be people who see things they can’t identify and until you can prove that every eyewitness in every case is 100% accurate there will always be a case for reasonable doubt of the ET (or your disingenuous “aliens” in quotes) hypothesis.

I have seen a lot of nonsense (especially) about the Tehran case… but NO reasonable mundane explanation… perhaps YOU have one?
I do, perhaps you missed it?

Anyway, I’m with Tim, I think my work is done here for now… my 3 year old grandson (our youngest) has been waiting patiently for me to peel him an orange and play Mario Kart Wii so he can kick my ass again. Yeah, just wait until I get him out on a real race course and then we’ll see who’s boss…

Merry Christmas to all,

Tom
 
Liar.

The simple fact is that there was only one triangulation, and we have no idea about its accuracy, because they forgot to mention it in the only report we have of the incident.

Before accusing me again with such terms I think you should get your facts straight.

I think you will find that there WAS more than one instance of triangulation (that we know about), but because there was also more than one UFO in the same region at the same time, the analysts decided that it was possible that in one of the reported instances, they could not be certain that the same UFO was sighted for triangulation purposes. Thus they only officially reported triangulation data for the instance where they could be certain the same UFO was sighted.
 
It is only those with closed minds who cannot countenance this fact and only those with closed minds that deny the subject is worthy of scientific investigation.


Then start a scientific investigation for god's sake and stop with the arguments from incredulity and ignorance already. :boggled:
 
Well, I DID find these . . .


[qimg]http://www.yvonneclaireadams.com/HostedStuff/GayRodeoBlimp.jpg[/qimg]



[qimg]http://www.yvonneclaireadams.com/HostedStuff/F4Backwinder.jpg[/qimg]​
OK, can't stand anymore. Gotta ask: was I the only one to notice the subtle irony of an AGM-45 pointing backwards?
 
I'm a little curious if anyone noticed the 'registration' numbers myself.

I could point out someone who didn't notice the missile in his critique, but that would be cruel, so I won't.
 
Uh... Would that be someone who seems to be too lazy to do any research outside WWW UFO sites? Like, about ah... Drop tanks, sidewinders, radar homing and warning receivers, afterburners, full millitary power, just to mention a few?

Yup. Vacations. Son sleeping (at last!). Wife's doing her homework. Nothing good on TV. That's it. Gotta post...
 
So as we can see, the scientific study of UFOs is not beyond the capabilities of predictive methodology.

It is only those with closed minds who cannot countenance this fact and only those with closed minds that deny the subject is worthy of scientific investigation.

Your constantly repeating the Battelle study is just ignoring some of the items mentioned by those that wrote the report. You also refuse to acknowledge any studies made by others over the decades, which ended up with the same conclusion that was mentioned in the Battelle study. There was nothing in these reports to revise current scientific understanding or that there was evidence of any alien spaceships.

As for your presentation, I can only conclude that you have no idea how to study UFOs and prefer to attempt to rely on studies that have failed to demonstrate anything meaningful. Good for you. I think it is up to those that feel there is something to study to demonstrate there is something that can be studied scientifically. Repeating the failed methodologies of the past just end up in the same way.

It is interesting that the Teheran case, the Rogue River case, and the Father Gill case failed to make the grade as evidence to present to the Sturrock panel in 1997. I guess those scientists felt they were not as good as you do.

You have consistently rejected the case histories that demonstrate the problems with eyewitness testimony and the issues of misperception. You have presented a dismissive attitude towards any possibility presented other than alien visitation for the source of these reports. That is as closed a mind as one can have. Of course, that is what you probably learned when you got your degree in pseudoscience.
 
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You know what strikes me about the Tehran case? The UFO in question outflew a couple of F4s, possibly fired a missile at them, and most tellingly of all, used Russian radar. I think we know what it was:
firefox2.jpg


With that mystery solved, perhaps Rramjet could present us with some of his long-awaited evidence of aliens?
 
Before accusing me again with such terms I think you should get your facts straight.

I think you will find that there WAS more than one instance of triangulation (that we know about), but because there was also more than one UFO in the same region at the same time, the analysts decided that it was possible that in one of the reported instances, they could not be certain that the same UFO was sighted for triangulation purposes. Thus they only officially reported triangulation data for the instance where they could be certain the same UFO was sighted.
A triangulation where you can't be sure you're triangulating on a single object isn't a triangulation.

That's why they didn't give any data for any other triangulations, because there was only one "reliable" result. Unfortunately we have no idea how accurate it was.

So your statement;
In fact these experts managed to both film and triangulate the UFOs (more than one and on more than one occasion)
was misrepresentation of the facts, at best.

Furthermore, you demonstrated quite clearly that you don't understand scientific error measurement (conflating instrumental accuracy with readout error and blithely dismissing other possible sources of error), and consistently make an appeal to authority by calling them experts, and stating that they wouldn't quote a result that wasn't highly accurate.

They were "experts" at triangulating rockets which had known launch times, trajectories and speeds. They were not experts at triangulating UFOs, as their failure to obtain more than one triangulation, despite having several attempts, amply demonstrates, and we have no idea what their typical errors were for rocket triangulation.

The bottom line is that in the White sands case we have one measurement of unknown accuracy. If that were submitted to a scientific journal for peer review they'd get it sent back in short order with some very rude comments.

And that's one of your "best" cases.
 
I stated:
”I have NEVER claimed the Mooy memo was a “complete detailed account of ALL events on the night. (I don’t actually remember stating “accurate” either because “accurate” and “summary” can be somewhat contradictory when used in conjunction…)”

You claimed it was the “smoking gun” and now you’re claiming it’s not an accurate summary of events as they occurred because it’s not detailed. Details are not events.

Contradict yourself much?
I have NEVER claimed it was the “smoking gun” either.

Accurate means accurate, summary means summary. Anybody can see what you’re trying to do here… you’re trying to redefine Pirouzi’s account as “details” that were left out when what they really are is additional uncorroborated events that were not included in the corroborated (by Mooy et. al.) summary of events… thus making it an incomplete (and therefore inaccurate) summary of events if they actually occurred.

How can the Mooy memo (aka "routing slip") be the “smoking gun” if it’s not an accurate summary of events as they occurred?

Seems to me you have two choices here…

A. Throw out Pirouzi’s account because it contradicts the Mooy memo.
B. Throw out the Mooy memo because it contradicts Pirouzi’s account.

You can’t have it both ways. I know which one I would choose if I wanted to maintain any semblance of credibility as an objective researcher…
First I did NOT state that Mooy’s summary was not “accurate”. I was merely drawing your attention to the fact that as YOU used the term, to claim that the summary was inaccurate because it failed to mention “details” found in Priozi’s account, I thought, was a little confusing in the nature of the terminology. That is why I placed the comment in parentheses – as an aside, rather than a primary argumentative point… but of course I now understand that nuanced communication with UFO debunkers is a lost cause… I can see I am going to have to make it a primary point now.

I think you might do well to at least try to understand the distinction between a detailed account of an event and a summary of that same event. A detailed account is just that. An account revealing all the relevant details of the case (usually) as they occurred. A summary on the other hand is a brief statement that presents the main points in a concise form.

That Mooy’s summary fails to mention details that are found in Pirouzi’s account, does not make it “inaccurate”. And this is where the terminology (the use of accuracy as a descriptor) becomes a little imprecise – or at least not precise enough for our purposes – and hence my original comment.

Your use of “incomplete” as a descriptor fails on a more immediate level. A summary almost by definition is an incomplete account.

Better terminology, as I already pointed out, is the use of terms such as “more or less concise”, (for example you could have stated that Mooy’s account was too concise) or you could even have used “incorrect”, but of course that would mean that you understood the definition of the term “summary” in the first place and that in turn would have meant that you could not claim “inaccurate”.

Of course Mooy’s account is NOT inaccurate. NOR was it incorrect. It merely leaves out details that YOU consider SHOULD have been included. Thus it is too concise (in your opinion).

You also use the term “contradict”. This is again another incorrect term. Again, Prouzi’s account does not actually “contradict” Mooy’s summary, in fact, and as you claim, Mooy’s account merely leaves out the additional details contained within Priouzi’s account.

So, far from me not being able to it “both ways” you, in your use of terminology cannot have it ANY way.

But let us explore some of the “details” you claim Mooy left out.

You claim Mooy left out the involvement of the four civilian airliners. In fact he left out only three of them because he states that at the time the second F-4 lost their communications, “…one civil airliner that was approaching Mehrabad during this same time experienced communications failure…”

(Someone in this thread asked why ONLY the F-4s avionics were affected…clearly other systems WERE affected and who knows WHAT instruments on the ground experienced disruption also… no investigation was ever conducted so we will probably never know).

As for why Mooy left out the three other airliners…at this late date we can only speculate. Perhaps because the involvement of the civil aircraft was not (at that time) directly related to military activity and he considered his brief was strictly military? Perhaps he was not informed of the three aircraft reports of hearing an emergency “beeper” signal? Perhaps he was informed but considered it might have been an entirely unrelated matter? There are many rational and reasonable explanations as to why Mooy might have left such information out of his summary – and we should consider these before leaping to the unfounded assertion that Pirouzi is simply lying!

More, there is NO rational reason for Pirouzi to lie about such occurrences… it adds nothing to the primary account… it makes it even more strange in fact… and given the certainty that “tower tapes” exist (at least one newspaper account of the time seems to draw on them for its story), he would have been careful NOT to say anything that might be contradicted by the public emergence of those tapes.

So Mooy had reasonable rational reasons for leaving the information out and Pirouzi had every reason to be truthful in his account.

You forgot the other three that Astrophotogrpaher and Puddle Duck have already pointed out so that makes at least four total now… it’s not looking good for Pirouzi’s (and by extension, Jafari’s) version of events.
You state Astrophotographer and Puddle Duck have listed three other “contradictions” …you do not list them and I am not about to search pages of the thread to see if that is correct or not. Besides if those persons DID raise issues, I would have dealt with them already.

You consider Pirouzi’s claim that the first pilot attempted to intercept the object more than once and his equipment malfunctioned every single time as opposed to only once a mere “detail” as opposed to a contradiction? No wonder you believe in “aliens”…
You fail to remember Mooy’s account is a summary account. In such an account it is often sufficient to provide a single exemplar of a repeated event in the interests of brevity. This is standard practice and nothing to be suspicious about. If Mooy wanted to write a detailed account then such an omission would have been remarkable, but not in a summary.

Events are not details. Events not included in a summary of events are called discrepancies. Your attempt to arbitrarily redefine the English language to suit your needs has been duly noted.
Unfortunately for you it is your own failure to understand the nuances and definitions of the English language that has demonstrably let you down, and consequently lead you down a blind alley.

What capabilities? There is nothing in the Mooy memo that can’t be explained by conventional means.
Go on then, explain them by conventional means!

The fact of the matter is we have nothing more than anecdotal accounts to go by in this case and as everybody (but you apparently) knows, anecdotal accounts are subject to error.
See my reply to Astrophotographer on this very point here:

The question should be how does a UFO demonstrating a number of capabilities consistent with known [and some perhaps unknown to, or never before experienced by, the pilots] Soviet interceptor technology at the time make a clean getaway? I’d have to say by pwning the Iranian intercepts and not landing…
If the capabilities of the UFO DO match those of Soviet technology of the time then you MUST tell us HOW they do. Merely stating that it is so does NOT make it so.

I stated:
”I have consistently presented the evidence in the Rogue River, White Sands, Tehran and Father Gill cases. If the UFO debunkers cannot explain those cases in reasonable mundane terms that FIT the evidence - it then allows me to put forward speculative hypotheses that DO fit the evidence.
But these cases have been explained in “reasonable mundane terms” that do fit the evidence allowing for the known possibility of human error. The fact of the matter is you can’t reasonably rule out those explanations out without denying the reality of human error so your “speculative” (and most extraordinary) hypothesis is falsified by default. What seems more reasonable to you, “alien” technology that we have absolutely no objective evidence for or knowledge of, or human error that we have the whole of human history to draw our conclusions from?
Actually I think you will find, as I have repeated so often, that (for example) the “blimp” hypothesis does NOT fit the witness descriptions (Speed of a jet, circular in plan section, no sound) AND I have pointed out precisely where research tells us to expect errors in such an account (distance, size, etc) AND accounting for those errors it makes the blimp hypothesis even MORE unreasonable (distance wrong – closer – object smaller – not a blimp – distance further – object larger – speed greater - > jet plane – not a blimp).

I have provided similar assessments for White Sands and we are still discussing the Tehran incident. I do not claim “alien technology” merely that the events describe occurrences that go beyond the boundaries of what we take to be the limits of the natural and technological world and are thus BY DEFINITION “alien”. That is entirely reasonable and your mere claim that it is not does not make it unreasonable. YOU must demonstrate WHY what I do is unreasonable before making unfounded assertions.

Bottom line is there will always be people who see things they can’t identify and until you can prove that every eyewitness in every case is 100% accurate there will always be a case for reasonable doubt of the ET (or your disingenuous “aliens” in quotes) hypothesis.
I have NEVER claimed 100% eyewitness accuracy. There is simply NO need. We have much research on human perception and psychology to inform us in these cases. Your position simply denies the capabilities of human understanding and the scientific method and that is pure nonsense!

IF you have a reasonable mundane explanations that FIT the evidence, then I would like to see them.
 
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