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Amanda Knox guilty - all because of a cartwheel

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Don't people flush anymore? :confused:

Guede's story was that he was on the toilet when he heard her scream. The prosecution speculates that part of the story may be true, while discounting his claims of innocence. The idea goes that Guede heard the scuffling going on in the other room and neglected to flush in the hurry to help Knox and Sollecito.

ETA: I agree with the comments about Fiona. Stilicho has done some fine work as well.
 
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Not sure why you need this at this point Stilicho, but if anyone else finds the site hard to read (I mean literally because the font is so small) I found this version of the same thing a bit easier

http://perugia-shock.blogspot.com/2009/02/from-amanda-knox.html

ETA: thanks for the kind words all: several people here have gone to a lot of trouble, in fact. And I apologise if that came across as tetchy :)
 
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Very interesting email. I thought I was sloppy when writing emails, holy cow.

Personally I don't think there is enough evidence to convict Knox (or her boyfriend) for this murder without explaining their relationship with Guede and how they committed this crime together. Without that all of the other (very circumstantial) evidence gets me part of the way there but with still a reasonable doubt about their guilt. I simply couldn't convict without someone coming up with a plausible link between the parties here.

Having a crappy defense team isn't a crime. The knife DNA is very unconvincing to me. The rest of the DNA is explainable as them living in the same house. I just don't see any solid evidence here.

Someone please please explain to me how having them work together with Guede to murder Meredith makes ANY SENSE at all. Then you have to somehow prove that theory with at least some reasonable evidence. This is the part that's missing to me...
 
Very interesting email. I thought I was sloppy when writing emails, holy cow.

Personally I don't think there is enough evidence to convict Knox (or her boyfriend) for this murder without explaining their relationship with Guede and how they committed this crime together. Without that all of the other (very circumstantial) evidence gets me part of the way there but with still a reasonable doubt about their guilt. I simply couldn't convict without someone coming up with a plausible link between the parties here.

Having a crappy defense team isn't a crime. The knife DNA is very unconvincing to me. The rest of the DNA is explainable as them living in the same house. I just don't see any solid evidence here.


You say that the knife DNA is unconvincing to you. How convincing is Sollecito's testimony that he was present when Kercher's DNA got on that knife? You are not convinced by the lab analysis. Okay. Why are you unconvinced when one of the accused testifies in essence that the lab was right? Why is this less convincing than the opinion of hired-gun "experts" who had access to neither the lab or the courtroom but are willing to pontificate to the media nonetheless? Why is that more compelling to you than the fact that the defense not only did not find it in their interest to contest that evidence but instead provided their own separate, unrelated evidence that the DNA was there?

I think you are struggling in denial.

Someone please please explain to me how having them work together with Guede to murder Meredith makes ANY SENSE at all. Then you have to somehow prove that theory with at least some reasonable evidence. This is the part that's missing to me...
That has been done. As was the discussion about the knife DNA,

Apparently the problem you are really having is that whenever you encounter something that disagrees with your preconceived opinion you simply ignore it, and wait for an opportunity to ask the same answered question again.
 
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Wait, so even though you don't think the evidence was enough to convict her, the evidence is solid enough to keep her in prison?

Yes. This is based on my understanding of the law in the UK at least - perhaps it's different in Italy. In the initial case the burden of proof is on the prosecution: they have to prove the defendants guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. But an appeal is not a retrial - the burden of proof is then on the defendants and they have to convince you that they are innocent, though the assumption is that they are guilty. I think this might be a high hurdle for them to leap.

I may be wrong about this, so please correct me if I am, BobTheDonkey.
 
Yes. This is based on my understanding of the law in the UK at least - perhaps it's different in Italy. In the initial case the burden of proof is on the prosecution: they have to prove the defendants guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. But an appeal is not a retrial - the burden of proof is then on the defendants and they have to convince you that they are innocent, though the assumption is that they are guilty. I think this might be a high hurdle for them to leap.

I may be wrong about this, so please correct me if I am, BobTheDonkey.

Regardless of how the system works...she's either guilty or not and the evidence supports one or the other.

The point is that the evidence was compelling enough to convict her, what makes you think that somehow she's not guilty and would fail to win an appeal based on your system?
 
Personally I don't think there is enough evidence to convict Knox (or her boyfriend) for this murder without explaining their relationship with Guede and how they committed this crime together.

I understand it is frustrating not to have a motive and a story which makes sense, Newton Trino. But I drew your attention to the case of Harold Shipman upthread. There is no doubt that he was a serial killer. There is no motive anyone can begin to understand. I would ask you to think about what makes you accept certain narratives. In particular, if you believe that Guede is guilty can you explain what it is that satisfies you as to his motive? For me that makes no more sense than anything else in terms of understanding why they did what they did.

Without that all of the other (very circumstantial) evidence gets me part of the way there but with still a reasonable doubt about their guilt. I simply couldn't convict without someone coming up with a plausible link between the parties here.

What is your understanding of the links that did exist?

Having a crappy defense team isn't a crime.

What makes you think they were not a good team? Have you investigated the backgrounds and qualifications of the defence lawyers?

The knife DNA is very unconvincing to me.

On what basis? I freely admit I do not have the expertise to judge it. Those who do have that expertise and who had the opportunity to see the evidence accept it. So what is that supports your doubt?

The rest of the DNA is explainable as them living in the same house.

No, it isn't. Can you explain why the bloody footprints (some of which are mixed with Knox's DNA) were there because they lived in the same house? Can you explain why you reject the testimony of the forensic experts that what you say is not true?

I just don't see any solid evidence here.

To paraphrase JihadJane: what kind of evidence do you accept as solid? What are you looking for? It has long been acknowledged that the case is built of small things and that there is no smoking gun. How often is there such evidence in murder cases? Do you know? I do not but I am very sure that very few cases would ever lead to a conviction if it was necessary to have not loose ends at all. In fact if that were the case I do not think any case would take very long at all.

To change the subject while I am here, there has been much made of the possibility of transfer of DNA: and there has been some doubt about the clean up. I had read some time ago that there was very little in the way of fingerprints but I could not find the reference again and was reluctant to post yet another claim without the source to hand.

But here is that source

http://www.seattlepi.com/local/405459_knox23.html

The piece is by Vogt, who is a journalist who reported extensively on the trial and who was in the court. It is a media piece not a scientific paper and the opening is largely human interest: but the substantive information which caught my eye was this:

In the afternoon, two forensic police fingerprint experts testified about the 108 prints documented at the scene. Only about half were usable, 17 belonged to Kercher, five to Sollecito, and 13 were not identified.

Only one fingerprint, found on a water glass in the kitchen, was attributed to Knox, an aspect that Dalla Vedova pressed forward with on cross-examination. Why no prints on Knox's guitar, desk, books, computer?

"The choice of the objects to analyze inside the villa, how was this decision made?" asked Dalla Vedova.

"It is me and the officer responsible for the inspection who decides what should be analyzed, based on our investigative experience," responded Antonino Francaviglia. All the objects in Knox's room were analyzed (only nine prints were found, and none were usable) as well as all the silverware. There are many reasons why no useful prints may have been found -- perhaps they were only partially defined or there was not enough pressure, humidity, or the surface wasn't right, he said. There are more than 16 characteristic points that have to be present to determine that a print is a match, he added.

The police officer does not over emphasise the significance of this, and nor should we. But for me it casts doubt on my prior assumptions, because I can honestly say that I expected that fingerprints would be all over the house if a person lived there. Clearly I was wrong. But if that is the case then why should a person's DNA be any more readily found?

We already know that there was only one example of Sollecito's DNA found in the house. As Philip pointed out earlier they could not test everything. But they did examine everything in Knox's room at least for fingerprints. I do not know if they tested everything for dna: I assume not. But they tested some things because the other source (apart from the bra clasp) for Sollecito's DNA was a cigarette butt in the kitchen.

What this leads me to think is this: either my ideas about fingerprint evidence etc are wildly wrong cos I watch too much television ( and I do not have a television) : or this is pretty good evidence of a clean up.

Anybody here (especially any police who might be reading) shed any more light on this?
 
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@ Matthew Best
To take another example - normally appeals in a civil system are "de novo" and as of right - that is to say at the first level of appeal the case is heard without regard to the lower court ruling (i.e., the presumption of innocence effectively applies) albeit mostly on the same evidence - while in the Common Law systems appeals presume the lower court was right and you must show it was wrong (with varying standards of review (e.g., clear error, etc.) This is a very big difference in both Civil and Criminal cases.

Taken from my link to MickMack's contribution in my post 391
 
Very interesting email. I thought I was sloppy when writing emails, holy cow.

It's not just an "interesting email". It's written with a clarity of time and detail only a day before the time/date/event confusion/imagination set in. Two important things happened between then: Sollecito's alibi for Knox was proved false. Knox was presented with this information.

Someone please please explain to me how having them work together with Guede to murder Meredith makes ANY SENSE at all. Then you have to somehow prove that theory with at least some reasonable evidence. This is the part that's missing to me...

That's amply addressed on the PMF site too. Numerous incidents are cited there of senseless murder, murder initiated by women, murder committed by a group of otherwise unlikely people, and so on.

Murder is one crime that doesn't always require a specific motive, NT.

Here's an exercise in logic for you, too.

Put yourself in the shoes of the postal police who originally discovered the body. The door is locked by key and there are no other entry points into the room. Where would you begin your investigation?



-----------------

ETA: http://perugiamurderfile.org/viewforum.php?f=15

There's an entire forum section on the evidence, the forensics, and other methodologies used at the Perugia cottage crime scene. It's a comprehensive listing of evidence collected and much of what was presented in the trials of the three.
 
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Very interesting email. I thought I was sloppy when writing emails, holy cow.

Personally I don't think there is enough evidence to convict Knox (or her boyfriend) for this murder without explaining their relationship with Guede and how they committed this crime together. Without that all of the other (very circumstantial) evidence gets me part of the way there but with still a reasonable doubt about their guilt. I simply couldn't convict without someone coming up with a plausible link between the parties here.

Having a crappy defense team isn't a crime. The knife DNA is very unconvincing to me. The rest of the DNA is explainable as them living in the same house. I just don't see any solid evidence here.

Then why were there only two places in the house where Sollecito's DNA was found? On Meredith's bra snap and on a cigarette in the kitchen?

Someone please please explain to me how having them work together with Guede to murder Meredith makes ANY SENSE at all. Then you have to somehow prove that theory with at least some reasonable evidence. This is the part that's missing to me...

Guede was a frequent visitor of the four men living on the ground floor of the house, and from Amanda's email we know that she also hung out with them:

for those who dont know, i inhabit a house of two stories, of which my three roommates and i share the second story appartment. there are four italian guys of our age between 22 and 26 who live below us. we are all wuite good friends and we talk often. giacomo is especially welcome because he plays guitar with me and laura, one of my roommates, and is, or was dating meredith. the other three are marco, stefano, and ricardo.)

So it does not seem a stretch by any means that Amanda would know Guede. There are reports that Guede was strongly attracted to Meredith (not surprising; the photos certainly indicate that she was a good-looking young woman). So Guede gets to know her roommate; is it out of the realm of possibility that he tells Amanda of his desire for Meredith?

Meanwhile any initial friendship between Amanda and Meredith has soured, reportedly because of the former's promiscuity. Amanda has an idea; they'll pretend to be intruders/burglars out to rape Meredith. It'll teach her a lesson about her high and mighty attitude towards Amanda. According to a poster at the Peruggia Murder file, it's a prank that she had pulled before:

Knox once got a bunch of her friends to dress up in ski masks and break into her apartment and assault her roomates as an "april fools" joke. She's guilty and ****ing nuts.

There's also the consideration that according to the police, there's no way the crime could have been pulled by one person; there is an absence of any evidence of Meredith defending herself with her nails for example, and only one defensive wound on her hands. However, there were "gripping lesions" on her arms, indicating at least one or two people were holding her.

In addition, there is the post-murder cleanup, the disposal of Meredith's cellphones, the staging of the break-in. Rudy Guede has no motive to do any of that.
 
In addition, there is the post-murder cleanup, the disposal of Meredith's cellphones, the staging of the break-in. Rudy Guede has no motive to do any of that.

I wouldn't say he doesn't have motive. I would, however, say that there are testimonies placing him elsewhere when the cleanup occurred.
 
It's not just an "interesting email". It's written with a clarity of time and detail only a day before the time/date/event confusion/imagination set in. Two important things happened between then: Sollecito's alibi for Knox was proved false. Knox was presented with this information.

<snip>


What I found interesting was that it almost seemed like an explanation for all of the things that she thought the police were finding too interesting about the events and surroundings.

I understand that it is just my impression, and not a particularly telling indictment. Still, the letter doesn't read like a narrative of events. It reads like an explanation of details, as if there was a checklist being followed. (Not that I'm saying there was a checklist.) There's just too much detail, presented in a fashion that doesn't ring true. It doesn't read like the story of someone who doesn't contemplate being charged with a murder she didn't commit. It reads like a series of defenses.
 
<snip>

In addition, there is the post-murder cleanup, the disposal of Meredith's cellphones, the staging of the break-in. Rudy Guede has no motive to do any of that.


Ditching the cell phones has still got me a bit puzzled. There isn't a good reason I have figured out for anyone to do that.

The best thing I can come up with is that somebody wasn't thinking very clearly, which tends (IMO) to conform to the idea that something went badly awry, and there was a desperate effort to conceal it.
 
That is a curious detail. There has been a lot of speculation about it. Apparently she did not die quickly. Some have suggested that they left her dying and they had to take the cellphones to prevent her calling someone. Given the injuries that is not likely to have been possible: but perhaps they did not know that? It is all guesswork but fiction often portrays superhuman efforts from the nearly dead...
 
I wouldn't say he doesn't have motive. I would, however, say that there are testimonies placing him elsewhere when the cleanup occurred.

He would have a motive for the clean up: but I cannot see why he would have a motive for staging the break-in unless he was a regular visitor to the house. It points to someone who did not live there and if he acted alone that is not a very smart move at all
 
LCN DNA analysis

Fiona,

In your comment on the DNA on page 6, part 1a, you wrote, that Dr. Stefanoni is an “internationally respected forensic scientist.” Can you support your statement?

You wrote “There was not a big enough sample to allow for a re-test. That is certainly a problem, but it is not enough to overturn the finding.” It is important to bear in mind that low copy number (LCN) DNA profiling was the technique used on the knife: “Because LCN analysis by its nature is not reproducible, it cannot be considered as robust as that associated with conventional DNA typing.” http://www.denverda.org/DNA_Documents/CMJ Budowle.pdf
But the problems with LCN and Dr. Stefanoni’s protocols are more serious. The following paragraphs are from http://www.sciencespheres.com/

Even with those far more stringent protocols, LCN profiles are not allowed as evidence by the vast majority of the world's courts. But let's take a look at these proposed procedures that attempt to place LCN testing on a more reproducible, reliable basis. That way, we can illuminate the deficiencies in Stefanoni's science improv technique.

The following quotes are all from the Crown Prosecution Service in the U.K. at: http://www.cps.gov.uk/publications/prosecution/lcn_testing.html This is from an article that supports the use of LCN.

“The FSS LCN test requires an ultra-clean laboratory and so is more expensive and less widely offered than the standard test.... The site of this bespoke laboratory is remote from other DNA Units, operates stringent entry requirements, is fitted with positive air pressure and specialist lighting and chemical treatments to minimize DNA contamination.”

Stefanoni's procedure, in sharp contrast to these requirements, was performed in an ordinary DNA analysis laboratory with other DNA units present. An ultra-clean laboratory, positive air pressure systems, and photo and chemical DNA sterilization are vital techniques to avoid contamination of samples within the laboratory. None of these facilities and procedures appears to have existed for Stefanoni's test. That makes four more technique deficiencies.

“In LCN testing, each sample is divided into three parts or aliquots, and two of these are tested. The third is retained for further testing in the event of a failure or to confirm the presence of a mixture.... Only those DNA components that are seen twice are included in any calculation, to show that the result is reproducible.”

Stefanoni used 20% of the sample to test for blood, which came out negative. Whatever was on the knife, it wasn't Meredith's blood. Then she tested all of the remaining material at once, so there was no possibility of comparing two results, and nothing left for further testing. By the standards of the Crown Prosecution Services, Stefanoni's results would be thrown out by either of these criteria. And that makes two more deficiencies.
[End of Quote]

You wrote “One may regret the lack of a retest but it does not seem that the defence are arguing that the dna was not there at all.” I find this statement absolutely bewildering. The point of doing a retest is to see whether the DNA is really there or not.

You wrote “She said that there has been no instance of contamination of this sort in her lab in the last 7 years. She pointed to the fact that no DNA from any of her team was found on any of the objects tested:” But Dr. Stefanoni did not perform negative controls, or if she did, she did not report them. You also wrote, “the knife was found and put in a plastic bag, which was then put into a box. There does not seem to be any possibility of contamination at that stage” However, the US department of Justice advises, “Put evidence into new paper bags or envelopes, not into plastic bags.” (http://www.ncjrs.gov/txtfiles1/nij/bc000614.txt)


Dr Waterbury summarizes (http://www.sciencespheres.com/) the problems in the LCN DNA analysis of the knife:
So we see that in roughly nine distinct ways, Stefanoni's improv LCN DNA profiling was even worse than unproven and inadmissible LCN DNA profiling tests.
1. The DNA wasn't amplified enough; the very weak fluorescence was simply blown up.
2. The test site was not remote from other DNA tests to avoid contamination.
3. Specialized LCN-quality entry procedures to avoid contamination were not used.
4. A positive pressure environment was not maintained to exclude contamination.
5. Special LCN sterilization procedures to destroy errant DNA were not used.
6. The entire sample was consumed in a single test; no comparison of tests was possible.
7. No sample was retained for future reference. The test can never be reproduced.
8. No negative control tests were run to check for contamination.
9. No control tests to check for field contamination were performed.
[End of Quote]

Now let us turn to the open letter signed by nine DNA experts and see what they say about the knife. A pdf file can be found here: http://www.friendsofamanda.org/articles.html
They say that it is unlikely that the knife could be cleaned of all traces of blood yet retain enough DNA to produce a profile of the victim. They discuss that the highest peak in the electropherogram is only about 100 relative fluorescence units with many falling between 20-50. They note the lack of ability to reproduce this result, and they also note that electronic files that would allow independent analysis of the data have not been disclosed. They conclude, “No credible scientific evidence has been presented to associate this kitchen knife with the murder of Meredith Kercher.”

If someone wishes to dispute the scientific validity of the statements I have presented by quoting the comments of other scientists, I would be interested in hearing it. I will save the discussions of Sollecito’s explanation and of the bra clasp for future comments.

Chris
 
bra clasp DNA

Fiona,

With respect to the bra clasp you wrote on p. 13 that the DNA was “firmly-fixed.” This language might suggest that the DNA did not arise from transfer. However, the letter from nine forensic scientists I cited in a previous comment note, “DNA testing cannot determine how biological material was deposited onto an item of evidence.”

You wrote on p. 6, “aside from this case, there does not seem to be anyone who is denying that Dr Stefanoni is respected in her field.” This may technically be true, but Dr. Waterbury’s demolition of the LCN DNA tests performed under her direction raise extremely serious issues surrounding her credibility, as my previous comment discussed.

The bra clasp would be expected to pick up dust. Dr. Waterbury (http://www.sciencespheres.com/) wrote, “Testing a few other items from that pile to see if they, too, had picked up DNA dust from the floor would tell us whether there was anything special about the clasp. Of course, that wasn't done.” With respect to a video posted at this site, he wrote, “The handling of the clasp when it was retrieved from the scene is shown in the video above. The investigators, dressed in fancy white outfits, seem to play some kind of game with it. Why the outfits? They do nothing to prevent mixing contamination of the material at the scene. As shown in the closeup picture, the outfits, and their gloves, quickly become contaminated by DNA from various sources at the scene which can then be transferred to the evidence.”

There are some more issues I would like to address, but I will have to leave them for a future comment.

Chris
 
Wow, Fiona is getting a tougher interrogation than Knox did.

I appreciate your work, Fiona, and that of others. I've seen the case mentioned in Norwegian media, but never got deeper into it than noting that Knox is a pretty gal. This thread, although it started out weird, has been very informative and interesting.
 
Now let us turn to the open letter signed by nine DNA experts and see what they say about the knife.

Chris,

I notice that you have ignored what many people here have already said about the DNA evidence on the knife: that the most relevant evidence is how Sollecito came up with another unlikely ad hoc explanation for it. He said that Kercher's DNA was on the knife (whether or not it actually was) because she had pricked herself with the knife when she was cooking at his house. Since this explanation is a pretty desperate fabrication (no one else recalls Kercher ever visiting Sollecito's house), an objective observer is left to wonder why Sollecito and his defense team expected Kercher's DNA to be found on the knife instead of disputing the finding in toto.

Perhaps the whack-a-mole defense strategy seems plausible to you, but you can't blame anyone for wondering whether the mind-boggling series of contradictory statements Knox and Sollecito have made to investigators indicates desperation on their part to cover something up.

-Mike
 
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