Will the real 10 year cost of ObamaCare be over $6 trillion?

[psychictv]

LOL! I was being a little humorous in my response. Couldn't you tell? I'm not really suggesting we not try to educate these children.

So you don't actually want to privatize education?

Then why have you democrats insisted on spending uncounted billions year after year after year doing what you now admit is no solution? Why not do what I suggest then and stop wasting that money?

Or wait... were serious the first time and you do want to privatize education?

NONSENSE.

http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/cr_31.htm

http://www.higheredinfo.org/dbrowser/index.php?measure=23 (You'll notice that graduation rates only approach your claimed statistic in the overfly region of the country which you liberals so disparage. Everywhere else has graduation rates below 73 percent.)

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/22/education/22dropout.html

Is your tactic now going to be just making up statistics?

You mean like your cherry picked 50% statistic which, again, refers only to the largest districts?

"Nearly 6.2 million students in the United States between the ages of 16 and 24 in 2007 dropped out of high school, fueling what a report released Tuesday called "a persistent high school dropout crisis. The total represents 16 percent of all people in the United States in that age range in 2007."
http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/05/05/dropout.rate.study/index.html

So no, I wasn't making up statistics. I was just using numbers from 2007 rather than your numbers from 2000. And I wasn't using only the biggest districts as you were.

 

[BeAChooser]

"Nearly 6.2 million students in the United States between the ages of 16 and 24 in 2007 dropped out of high school, fueling what a report released Tuesday called "a persistent high school dropout crisis. The total represents 16 percent of all people in the United States in that age range in 2007."
http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/05/05/dro...udy/index.html

So no, I wasn't making up statistics.

No, but you and CNN didn't look far enough into the issue to understand why that statistic is faulty. Maybe I can help you out.

http://www.schoollibraryjournal.com/article/CA6439502.html

5/7/2007

... snip ...

More teenagers are dropping out of high school than what’s being reported at the state and federal level, says a new report by the Washington, DC-based Alliance for Excellent Education.

“Understanding High School Graduation Rates” says there are currently eight different types of graduation rate calculations being used by states nationwide and many of them are staggeringly inaccurate.

As a result, independent researchers have confirmed over the last few years that more teens are dropping out of high school than is being reported. New York, for example, reports that 76 percent of its high school students graduate, but independent researchers calculate that the actual figure could be as low as 58 percent. The discrepancy is even higher in California, which says 87 percent of its students graduate, while independent researchers say as little as 65 percent actually graduate.

“Not only does this obscure the graduation rate crisis, particularly for poor and minority students, but it also makes it impossible to compare graduation rates across schools, districts, and states,” the study says, adding that while 70 percent of students do graduate each year, nearly 1.2 million do not.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/09/AR2007050902411.html

May 10, 2007

... snip ...

Seventy percent of students nationwide earned diplomas in four years as of 2003, the latest data available nationally, a much lower rate than that reported by the vast majority of school systems. According to the database, Washington area graduation rates ranged from 94 percent in Loudoun and Falls Church to a low of 59 percent in the District, with most other systems falling in the 60s, 70s and low 80s.

Education Secretary Margaret Spellings said the data show that half of the nation's dropouts come from a small group of largely urban "dropout factories," high schools "where graduation is a 50-50 shot or worse." She scolded state and local education officials for masking the problem by publishing inflated graduation rates based on bad math.

"We are finally moving from a state of denial to a state of acknowledgment," she said, speaking in Washington at a summit titled America's Silent Epidemic.

Well, some of us are.

Continuing from the above ...

The publication of the new national database, compiled by the trade journal Education Week, signals a sweeping change in how graduates are counted. The site tabulates graduation data for school systems based on simple attrition, tracking the dwindling size of a high school class from the fall of freshman year to graduation day.

From Education Week:

http://www.edweek.org/media/ew/dc/2009/33sos_gains.pdf

Graduation in the United States

About 69 percent of all public school students in the nation graduated from high school with a regular diploma in the class of 2006. Between 1996 and 2006, the nation’s graduation rate increased by 2.8 percentage points, an average of less than one-third of a point annually. Graduation rates in the majority of states have also improved relative to the 1996 baseline. However, 2006 marked the first time in the past decade that the nation’s
graduation rate has posted a noticeable annual decline, falling more than 1 percentage point since 2005. Half of states showed a similar drop in 2006, signaling that the consistent improvements found for the nation and many states in recent years may be in jeopardy of eroding.

Maybe this is how CNN and you were fooled:

http://www.nber.org/reporter/2008number1/heckman.html

NBER Reporter: Research Summary 2008 Number 1

... snip ...

One graduation measure issued by the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES), the status completion rate - widely regarded by the research community as the official rate - shows that U.S. students responded to the increasing demand for skill by completing high school at increasingly higher rates. By this measure, U.S. schools now graduate nearly 88 percent of students and black graduation rates have converged to those of non-Hispanic whites over the past four decades.

A number of recent studies have questioned the validity of the status completion rate and other graduation rate estimators. They have attempted to develop more accurate estimators of high school graduation rates. Heated debates about the levels and trends in the true high school graduation rate have appeared in the popular press. Depending on the data sources, definitions, and methods used, the U.S. graduation rate has been estimated to be anywhere from 66 to 88 percent in recent years-an astonishingly wide range for such a basic statistic. The range of estimated minority rates is even greater-from 50 to 85 percent.

In an NBER Working Paper published in 2007, we demonstrate why such different conclusions have been reached in previous studies. We use cleaner data, better methods, and a wide variety of data sources to estimate U.S. graduation rates. When comparable measures are used on comparable samples, a consensus can be reached across all data sources. After adjusting for multiple sources of bias and differences in sample construction, we establish that: 1) the U.S. high school graduation rate peaked at around 80 percent in the late 1960s and then declined by 4-5 percentage points; 2) the actual high school graduation rate is substantially lower than the 88 percent estimate; 3) about 65 percent of blacks and Hispanics leave school with a high school diploma, and minority graduation rates are still substantially below the rates for non-Hispanic whites. Contrary to estimates based on the status completion rate, we find no evidence of convergence in minority-majority graduation rate. Exclusion of incarcerated populations from some measures greatly biases the reported high school graduation rate for blacks.

... snip ...

As others have shown, and we confirm, the most significant source of bias in estimating graduation rates comes from including GED recipients as high school graduates. GEDs are high school dropouts who certify as the equivalents of ordinary graduates by passing an exam. Currently 15-20 percent of all new high school credentials issued each year are GEDs. In recent years, inclusion of GEDs as high school graduates has biased graduation rates by upwards of 7-8 percentage points. A substantial body of scholarship summarized in our 2008 book shows that the GED program does not benefit most participants, and that GEDs perform at the level of dropouts in the U.S. labor market. The GED program conceals major problems in American society.

 

[tyr_13]

It's funny when you site groups that contradict your point of view as much as Alliance for Excellent Education does. They want more Federal dollars and control, not privatization.

 

[psychictv]

Also, they say the graduation rate is 70%, not the 50% that BAC claims. So my "made up" figure of 80% was actually closer to the mark than his figure.

 

[BeAChooser]

It's funny when you site groups that contradict your point of view as much as Alliance for Excellent Education does. They want more Federal dollars and control, not privatization.

I never claimed liberals weren't above emphasizing the poor performance of their programs to justify asking for even more wasteful spending. Happens all the time. And that isn't funny.

 

[BeAChooser]

Also, they say the graduation rate is 70%, not the 50% that BAC claims.

LOL! Now you are comparing apples and oranges. I specifically stated that the 50% figure applies to the 50 largest public school districts in the nation. That's not the national average. You then claimed the national figure was 84% and that I was misleading folks. I then posted numerous articles stating that the national figure is closer to 70%, suggesting that you made up your statistic. You then posted a source (CNN) stating a figure that led you to believe it's 84%. Fine, but your source was wrong for the reasons I then showed with, again, numerous credible citations. And now your comeback is to misrepresent what I stated originally. When will your dishonesty end, psychictv?

 

[Lurker]

Still waiting a reply to my posts citing BAC's errors. Specifically his erroneous claims are:

1. Private universities educate engineers better than public universities (proven false by the list I posted)

2. Use of an infinite time frame for accounting. (no accountant uses this method when examining government programs)

And finally I would like an explanation why suburban schools do so well in regards to graduation rate. (I think we all know the answer but I want to make sure BAC knows the answer)

Thanks!

 

[Oliver]

http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2009/11/27/obamacares-cost-could-top-6-trillion/

Would a $5 trillion dollar difference in the real cost versus what we are being told will be the cost constitute a mistake or a lie on part of those claiming the cost will be $1 trillion over 10 years? I say the latter.

Why does it matter to you? As long the US spends that money on their domestic issues rather than the billions on foreign military interventions, everyone outside the US borders pretty much will be just fine with that.

 

[AvalonXQ]

It's funny when you site groups that contradict your point of view as much as Alliance for Excellent Education does. They want more Federal dollars and control, not privatization.

Exactly. Two points here:
1) The government is incompetent at running domestic programs and handling tax dollars.
2) Liberals think the solution to this is making more domestic programs and giving more tax dollars to the government.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Still waiting a reply to my posts citing BAC's errors. Specifically his erroneous claims are:

1. Private universities educate engineers better than public universities (proven false by the list I posted)

2. Use of an infinite time frame for accounting. (no accountant uses this method when examining government programs)

And finally I would like an explanation why suburban schools do so well in regards to graduation rate. (I think we all know the answer but I want to make sure BAC knows the answer)

Thanks!

Good luck!

I'm still waiting for him to answer how a premium paid to an insurance company is a tax. And how, even if you considered it a tax, premiums paid into the system increase the cost to the federal budget.

And also why he distrusts the CBO so much. (He seems to think it's run by the Democratic Party. . . or by Bill Clinton or by me--that last part never made any sense.)

At any rate, the revised version of the Senate bill is now going to the CBO for fiscal analysis. Sounds like this is the version that the Democrats will finally vote on. (The Republicans, except for Snowe, are simply going to fillibuster.)

 

[tyr_13]

Exactly. Two points here:
1) The government is incompetent at running domestic programs and handling tax dollars.
2) Liberals think the solution to this is making more domestic programs and giving more tax dollars to the government.

You don't know their position either obviously. Please make an attempt to educate yourself.

 

[AvalonXQ]

Please make an attempt to educate yourself.

Unless "educate" is code for "indoctrinate" (as it so often is), you don't want people doing that or the liberals are sunk.
They thrive on keeping as little information widely known as possible.

 

[Shalamar]

Unless "educate" is code for "indoctrinate" (as it so often is), you don't want people doing that or the liberals are sunk.
They thrive on keeping as little information widely known as possible.

Ahh.. The 'Liberals are evil, and Conservatives are perfect human beings' argument.

 

[AvalonXQ]

Ahh.. The 'Liberals are evil, and Conservatives are perfect human beings' argument.

How about the "liberal philosophy is completely at odds with both reality and morality, and conservative philosophy is the best available alternative" argument?

 

[tyr_13]

Unless "educate" is code for "indoctrinate" (as it so often is), you don't want people doing that or the liberals are sunk.
They thrive on keeping as little information widely known as possible.

Educate yourself as to what AEE wants and why. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alliance_for_Excellent_Education

In short, they recognize that many of the local school districts don't use evidence based techniques and some need more federal over site and dollars. I know it's a sacred cow of conservatives that local and state governments are always better, but it's perfectly in keeping with liberal ideology to point out the problems and try to fix them.

But thanks for being a textbook example of conservative hate of education!

 

[AvalonXQ]

But thanks for being a textbook example of conservative hate of education!

Thanks for reminding me what sort of stuff liberals want in the textbooks!

ETA: Why isn't the mod moving this education stuff to another thread?

 

[tyr_13]

Thanks for reminding me what sort of stuff liberals want in the textbooks!

ETA: Why isn't the mod moving this education stuff to another thread?

And another dodge!

 

[jimbob]

How about the "liberal philosophy is completely at odds with both reality and morality, and conservative philosophy is the best available alternative" argument?

It might fit with your version of morality, but I have some empathy for people who are less fortunate than me, so liberal morality generally fits with mine.

As to the "reality".

Would this be the "reality" where curtailing sex education stops sexual activity? Or the "reality" where promoting abstinence is a valid approach to dealing with the problem of AIDS in Africa?

 

[AvalonXQ]

It might fit with your version of morality, but I have some empathy for people who are less fortunate than me, so liberal morality generally fits with mine.

So do I. Which is why I want them to have the opportunity to succeed, rather than being beholden to a bloated government the rest of their lives.

Would this be the "reality" where curtailing sex education stops sexual activity? Or the "reality" where promoting abstinence is a valid approach to dealing with the problem of AIDS in Africa?

It would be the "reality" where people do a better job of handling their money than the government does, where private organizations do a better job of fighting any social ill from poverty to disease than does the government, and where individual choice does a better job at virtually anything than does a public mandate.
But now we're just clashing the standard rhetoric; none of this has much to do with the Democrats' most recent attempts to destroy American exceptionalism. We should trim it back to the OP.

 

[johnny karate]

They thrive on keeping as little information widely known as possible.

I'll have to keep this bit of staggering irony in mind next time I read about some Conservative morons building a "museum" featuring Jesus riding a stegosaurus.