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How do you guys explain really bizarre cases of synchronicity?

Again, in the real world (i.e., outside this Forum), no prediction is necessary. And that real world includes mathematicians and statisticians. If you don't believe me, ask a few of them if they would be astonished if someone threw a coin 1000 times and obtained all heads. If anyone says no, let me know who that is.
So does astonishment form the basis for synchronicity? I'd be "astonished" by many improbable occurrences. Said astonishment would, however, not serve to convince me of the existence of "synchronicity" as some heretofore unquantified probability-altering force.
But that's exactly the problem -- there's not an infinite number of monkeys and an infinite amount of time -- which is why, absent paranormal intervention, no one is ever going to throw a fair coin 1000 times and obtain all heads.
Are you mistaking "improbable" for "impossible?"

Edit: I missed the words "absent paranormal intervention," so I deleted a sentence. :)
 
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Again, in the real world (i.e., outside this Forum), no prediction is necessary. And that real world includes mathematicians and statisticians. If you don't believe me, ask a few of them if they would be astonished if someone threw a coin 1000 times and obtained all heads. If anyone says no, let me know who that is.
No.

They wouldn't be "astonished". They would realise that the coin wasn't fair. Because they actually understand statistics.

But that's exactly the problem -- there's not an infinite number of monkeys and an infinite amount of time -- which is why, absent paranormal intervention, no one is ever going to throw a fair coin 1000 times and obtain all heads.
Well how about that!

So synchronicity only happens in poorly-defined and poorly-controlled circumstances to people who don't understand statistics.

There's a hint in there, if you would care but to look for it.
 
I can't believe this discussion is still going on... I check back every once in awhile, and it's still going on over exactly the same topics... well, anyway.

Isn't the real point as simple as this: in order for the occurrence of a specified event to reach such extreme improbability that it would logically seem as if some sort of force besides random chance must be operating in the situation, the exact circumstances of the event must be predicted in advance?

For example, the odds that any combination of five numbers and then one more drawn number will win Powerball this week are one chance in 195,249,054. All number combinations have exactly the same chance. (1,2,3,4,5 and then a Powerball of 6, for example, are just as likely to win as any other combination. But the winners would probably be sharing their prize with a lot of other people!) However, if I predict that the number combination 4,9,17,34,23 and 5 will win Powerball, and that does win, well... then maybe there really is something weird going on. If I predict it correctly and I don't buy a ticket, I will never stop kicking myself as long as I live. ;)

The crucial point that makes the difference is very simple-- it's whether or not a particular outcome was predicted correctly in advance. If there are a very large number of possible results (as in the six-number Powerball combinations), a very specific prediction is made, and the specific result exactly matches the specific prediction, then I would agree that events would seem to be operating under something other than the laws of probability.
 
Are you a mathematician or statistician in the real world?

They wouldn't be "astonished". They would realise that the coin wasn't fair. Because they actually understand statistics.
So, you evidently disagree with fromdownunder, who would be astonished by 1,000 consecutive heads "only if predicted in advance."

Well how about that!

So synchronicity only happens in poorly-defined and poorly-controlled circumstances to people who don't understand statistics.
You mean to folks like Jung, Kammerer, and Wolfgang Pauli?

There's a hint in there, if you would care but to look for it.
So how many statistics courses have you taken?
 
Are you a mathematician or statistician in the real world?
My job involves extensive use of both, but I don't have a degree in either.

So, you evidently disagree with fromdownunder, who would be astonished by 1,000 consecutive heads "only if predicted in advance."
I wouldn't be astonished in that case either. If someone predicts 1000 consecutive heads, and then gets 1000 consecutive heads, then not only do we know that the coin is not fair, we know he knew the coin is not fair.

If you stipulate that the coin is fair, then either the stipulation is wrong or you have created a hypothetical that in no way matches reality.

You mean to folks like Jung, Kammerer, and Wolfgang Pauli?
Jung and Kammerer most definitely. I'd have to check exactly what Pauli said and in what context.

So how many statistics courses have you taken?
Sufficient. And I passed them, too.
 
I can't believe this discussion is still going on... I check back every once in awhile, and it's still going on over exactly the same topics... well, anyway.

Isn't the real point as simple as this: in order for the occurrence of a specified event to reach such extreme improbability that it would logically seem as if some sort of force besides random chance must be operating in the situation, the exact circumstances of the event must be predicted in advance?
That, and the specified event must really be operating according to the assumed probability distribution.

As I said just above, if we get 1000 consecutive heads, we don't act all surprised, we take a closer look at the coin.

What you are saying is true too, of course.

1000 heads in a row would be an amazing coincidence, if the coin were fair - which it obviously isn't.
1000 tails in a row, likewise.

But a perfect sequence of HTHTHTHT... or THTHTHTH... would be even more amazing (and would exclude the simpler causes of physical bias).

And so would a sequence of HHTTHHTT or TTHHTTHH or HHHTTT or HTTHHT.

Or 1H2T3H4T5H6T...
Or 1H1T2H3T5H8T...
Or 3H1T4H1T5H9T...
Or 2H7T1H8T2H8T...

That's where the prediction becomes essential. Post-hoc significance is subjective and arbitrary, and most often, simply wrong.

The crucial point that makes the difference is very simple-- it's whether or not a particular outcome was predicted correctly in advance. If there are a very large number of possible results (as in the six-number Powerball combinations), a very specific prediction is made, and the specific result exactly matches the specific prediction, then I would agree that events would seem to be operating under something other than the laws of probability.
Yes.

Of course, this is exactly what doesn't happen. ;)
 
How? I can get several people together who have collectively experienced the certainty that a particular football team is the greatest, or the love of Jesus filled the room. That doesn't make it objective.

I think you may saying that multiple witnesses help establish the reliability of the account of the events. Fair comment, but not necessarilly vital. Some events can be corroberated even if only one or two people are involved.

The question is 'What objectively differentiates an event caused by this mysterious force of syncronicity from a random event assigned subjective importance after the event?'

Yes, I was thinking of greater credibility.

I'm not sure about mysterious forces, but in the matter of tossing coins, a 'synchronicity', at least as I have noticed, would go something like this:

Two people are talking about coin tosses and probabilities, and suddenly a child comes into the room and accidently knocks over a jar with ten coins in it, and they all land on the floor, heads up.

So there's something unexpected; somewhat personly relevant; whimsical.
Perhaps its fair to say that a synchronicity is a coincidence whose timing is such that it has the appearance, or feeling, of being tailored for the moment.

How someone interprets said event is another issue. I find them comical and unthreatening. I thought everyone had such moments. They announce themselves, or are noticed, anyway, because of something obscure and personal. A bird flying into a house through an open door doesn't count, unless you were just looking at a bird book, and it was the species you were just reading about. It counts more if its a species you rarely see.
 
Yes, I was thinking of greater credibility.
So if more than one person sees a face in the clouds, or the Virgin Mary in wood grain, or Jesus' face in random frying marks on a tortilla does it make it more credible that those things are actually what these people see in them?

Or isn't it possible that more than one person can make the same Type I error (in this case, pareidolia)?

Again, I don't find the idea that more than one person observing "synchronicity" makes it any more credible as being something other than a mere random coincidence.
 
Are you a mathematician or statistician in the real world?
Ad hominem fallacy.

You mean to folks like Jung, Kammerer, and Wolfgang Pauli?
Yes. If they claim "synchronicity" is an acausal connection, or not merely random coincidence but still acausal, then they have made a self-contradictory definition.


So how many statistics courses have you taken?
Again, ad hominem fallacy.
 
So if more than one person sees a face in the clouds, or the Virgin Mary in wood grain, or Jesus' face in random frying marks on a tortilla does it make it more credible that those things are actually what these people see in them?

Or isn't it possible that more than one person can make the same Type I error (in this case, pareidolia)?

Again, I don't find the idea that more than one person observing "synchronicity" makes it any more credible as being something other than a mere random coincidence.

I certainly don't have a strong case for the suggestion that more people sharing the moment increases its credibility, though it allows some reflective validation, much like seeing a shooting star when someone else does makes it more memorable or even significant.

But then, I'm not really suggesting that synchronicity is anything other than a mere random coincidence...except for the extra added personal aspect.
The Jesus in the toast analogy isn't applicable to the synchronicity phenomena. The synchronicity 'feeling' would engage if I was to notice a Jesus image on my toast, and suddenly a friend called, and mentioned Jesus on toast without provocation.

In my own case, at least, such an event wouldn't cause me to become a Christian, or stop eating toast. Its more like an unplanned moment that stands out through its unlikeliness. It needed be loaded with implications.
 
Small nitpick (well, you people were talking about bugs...): "interesting" doesn't necessarily equate with "meaningful".

Exactly. And I said "interesting" because what is being chosen is interesting patterns, and these may or may not have anything to do with "meaningful" (as you explain below). It's like Rodney continuing to use the example of 1000 heads - that sequence contains far less meaning than a sequence with some arrangement of heads and tails.

The rationale for this seems to be that the only purpose to these patterns is simply to get your attention, not to convey meaning.

A meaningful pattern is one in which the pattern is actually mapped to some real-world objects or events; such a pattern may help me discern meaning in those objects or events, in that it allows me to make some reasonably accurate predictions about the behovior of the system comprised of those objects/events.

On the other hand, I may 'find' all sorts of patterns that interest me in a large enough sequence of random items, but those patterns have no meaning beyond the fact that they tickled my fancy for whatever reason. IOW, they tell me nothing useful about the items in that random collection.

Linda
 
Jung and Kammerer most definitely. I'd have to check exactly what Pauli said and in what context.
Among other things, Pauli won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1945. Your notion that the only believers in synchronicity are those who don't know much about statistics doesn't hold water.
 
PixyMisa said:
Jung and Kammerer most definitely. I'd have to check exactly what Pauli said and in what context.

Among other things, Pauli won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1945. Your notion that the only believers in synchronicity are those who don't know much about statistics doesn't hold water.

(Highlighting mine.)

Pauli's Nobel Prize doesn't change what PixyMisa said, which is reasonable. Plenty of Nobel Laureates have had strange ideas about subjects outside their expertise, so an appeal to authority is not always a good idea.
 
Ad hominem fallacy.
I stated: "Again, in the real world (i.e., outside this Forum), no prediction is necessary. And that real world includes mathematicians and statisticians. If you don't believe me, ask a few of them if they would be astonished if someone threw a coin 1000 times and obtained all heads. If anyone says no, let me know who that is." PixyMisa responded "No." So, I was just trying to determine whether PixyMisa is a mathematician or statistician.

Yes. If they claim "synchronicity" is an acausal connection, or not merely random coincidence but still acausal, then they have made a self-contradictory definition.
You continue to beg the question by assuming the answer.

Again, ad hominem fallacy.
Again, I was trying to determine PixeMisa's statistics background. The ad hom was when PixyMisa stated: "So synchronicity only happens in poorly-defined and poorly-controlled circumstances to people who don't understand statistics. There's a hint in there, if you would care but to look for it."
 
I certainly don't have a strong case for the suggestion that more people sharing the moment increases its credibility, though it allows some reflective validation, much like seeing a shooting star when someone else does makes it more memorable or even significant.
I think "reflective validation" is just weasel words. I've shown that more observers does not make an event more credible or inherently more meaningful. Many people can make perceptual errors. The patterns can really be there in the random data, but it's still an error to claim they are significant or meaningful. We evolved to infer such things.

But then, I'm not really suggesting that synchronicity is anything other than a mere random coincidence...except for the extra added personal aspect.
But language works by convention. Your definition isn't the one most people use. People who believe in synchronicity specifically say it is an alternative explanation to mere coincidence. (That is, the claim of synchronicity is the denial of mere random coincidence.) I invite you to google the term and see how the vast majority of people use it. You'll see phrases like "acausal connection" or that stuff about the universe sending a message.

The Jesus in the toast analogy isn't applicable to the synchronicity phenomena. The synchronicity 'feeling' would engage if I was to notice a Jesus image on my toast, and suddenly a friend called, and mentioned Jesus on toast without provocation.
Again, I've amply shown that the word synchronicity is not used to refer to just a feeling. It is an alternative explanation to mere random coincidence. As such, it is a type of Type I error or apophenia. So the pareidolia example is apt.

Its [sic] more like an unplanned moment that stands out through its unlikeliness.
No. Here you're using the low-probability argument, but I've shown over and over again that low probability events happen all the time. (Fromdownunder's example shows that every event that happens is actually an extremely low probability event, yet most of them don't stand out.) That isn't what makes it "stand out".

Whatever the numbers called for the most recent lottery--the odds against those numbers coming up are exactly the same as the odds against any other set of possible numbers coming up. Yet if no one wins it, nobody finds that coincidence of numbers to "stand out" in any way. So it's not the low probability of the event that makes that happen.

It's the perception of pattern in random data which is apophenia. If there's any difference between apophenia and synchronicity, it's in that synchronicity ascribes meaning or significance to the perceived pattern. That is, claiming something is synchronicity is to claim it is not mere random coincidence (or at least it is not just random coincidence, but something more than that).
 
I stated: "Again, in the real world (i.e., outside this Forum), no prediction is necessary. And that real world includes mathematicians and statisticians. If you don't believe me, ask a few of them if they would be astonished if someone threw a coin 1000 times and obtained all heads. If anyone says no, let me know who that is." PixyMisa responded "No." So, I was just trying to determine whether PixyMisa is a mathematician or statistician.
Thanks for the review. And after that, I pointed out that you made an ad hominem fallacy.

If you think someone made an error in mathematics or statistics, you can point out that error regardless of the person's occupation. His occupation is irrelevant to the argument.

By the way, mathematics or statistics do not tell us whether or not someone would be astonished by something.

You continue to beg the question by assuming the answer.
What? That statement seems to have no connection to my statement which you quoted. I pointed out that the definition of synchronicity as an acausal connection or as both purely random and a denial that it is purely random is a contradiction.

What answer?
("Beg the question" means to ask your opponent to concede the very point you're debating. It doesn't have anything to do with a question and answer.)


Again, I was trying to determine PixeMisa's statistics background.
Yes, and every time you do that, you are committing the ad hominem fallacy. His statistics background is irrelevant to his argument.

The ad hom was when PixyMisa stated:
And this is the tu quoque fallacy. Whether someone else did it first (and I don't think what you cited from PixyMisa is an ad hominem anyway) doesn't change the fact that you made an ad hominem fallacy.
 
From the psychicinvestigator.com on Jung's idea of synchronicity:

In a lecture given at the 1951 Eranos conference in Ascona, Switzerland, Jung described several examples of what he considered classical synchronicity as evidence that psychic events both in dreams and the waking state do not only influence but are influenced by the collective unconscious on the simultaneous planes of symbolic and physical being and do often supersede notions of time, space, and statistical probability.
 
From the psychicinvestigator.com on Jung's idea of synchronicity:


Quote:
In a lecture given at the 1951 Eranos conference in Ascona, Switzerland, Jung described several examples of what he considered classical synchronicity as evidence that psychic events both in dreams and the waking state do not only influence but are influenced by the collective unconscious on the simultaneous planes of symbolic and physical being and do often supersede notions of time, space, and statistical probability.
__________________

Well, allrighty then. :)

Actually, I think there's a way in which all of this does make sense. Quarky's definition of synchronicity is the same one that we do find a lot, but it's actually about a subjective mental event, a reaction (often a shared one) to a coincidence, and as such, it belongs in that category and class of events. As a subjective event and feeling, it has meaning and importance (according to the significance which those words carry in the class of subjective events.) The CoSE is not the same as the class of events in which actual synchronicity would have to be occurring in order for it to be verifiable. In that class, you need to have not only "an experience of two or more events that are causally unrelated occurring together in a meaningful manner. To count as synchronicity, the events should be unlikely to occur together by chance"(per Wikipedia), but ALSO proof that a whole lot more of these events are really happening than chance would dictate. "Synchronicity" is actually coincidence plus a personally meaningful subjective experience.
 
Quarky's definition of synchronicity is the same one that we do find a lot, but it's actually about a subjective mental event, a reaction (often a shared one) to a coincidence, and as such, it belongs in that category and class of events.

I disagree. I see synchronicity used to talk about some other connection (than normal causality), like "resonance" or "astrology" and so on. Even in the Merriam Webster definition it's obvious that they're talking about a connection that is not conventional causality. If the word only meant what Quarky says, the term "apophenia" would cover it.

ETA: I also think the notion of saying synchronicity only claims a personal subjective meaning (rather than an inherent meaning) in the events is problematic (or even dishonest). For example, Quarky gave the example of a person attributing a personal and subjective meaning to a fly disturbing a person who was considering whether or not to get up and mow the lawn. Trouble is, that "personal subjective meaning" was that the universe was telling him to do something. That's actually a claim about the external world (and it's wrong). So claiming that it means something to you personally is just a way to worm out of a claim about objective events.

Similarly, someone who believes in astrology plays that same game when they say that it's not that the apparent position of the planets against the constellations actually causes things on Earth. It's rather that a person can ascribe personal and subjective meaning to those patterns. However, the personal and subjective meaning they're ascribing is in fact that the planets are affecting things on Earth.

To count as synchronicity, the events should be unlikely to occur together by chance"(per Wikipedia), but ALSO proof that a whole lot more of these events are really happening than chance would dictate.
And, of course, we've shown over and over that with the arbitrary rules of deciding what events are meaningful, such events are not actually happening more often than chance would dictate.

Again, the Skeptic's Dictionary entry on coincidence is right on point. Remember Uri Geller's e-mail about all the "elevens" associated with the events of 9-11? It seems uncanny--as if this many things associated with the event coming to "eleven" that there must be some meaning of significance--until you realize that the rules are completely arbitrary. You could play this game with any set of random data (and that's not even counting the "hits" that get included that are flat out lies or misremembered events).

Look at what Rodney did with the coin tossing thought experiment. He asks what the odds of a patterned outcome are, and we point out that the odds of any particular outcome are identical. He then lumps a large group of outcomes and shows that the odds of getting an outcome from that large set are not so long. That's just playing games with arbitrary rules. It's doing the same sort of thing Geller did with the "eleven" stuff.

"Synchronicity" is actually coincidence plus a personally meaningful subjective experience.
Again, that's apophenia. Synchronicity is the claim of inherent meaning or significance to these events.

Jung really thought there was something going on (and he also believed that Rhine had statistical evidence for ESP). He believed "synchronicity" was evidence of an acausal connection or acausal objective significance. This of course is just as logical as saying the coincidence had an acausal cause.
 
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"Synchronicity" is actually coincidence plus a personally meaningful subjective experience.

So, if two identical events of long odds happen to two different people, at different times, and one goes "meh!" and the other goes "wow, this is going to change my life", then one is synchrosity and the other not synchrosity, even though the event is the same?

Norm
 

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