UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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Let us now consider the error margins you make so much of. Suppose the triangulation accuracy was to within about 10% (a large error margin) - so that the error bounds might be on the order of 15,000 ft. This means the objects could have been at an altitude between 135000 and 165000 ft. It MUST be pointed out that the lower altitude is still higher than anything we flew at that time!

You can suppose what you want but I think you need to provide some proof for these assertions or admit you just pulled them out of some body orifice.

So in summary:
How do you come to 10%?
How do you conclude that it is a large margin?
 
Even the high altitude (Skyhook) balloons in those days achieved only 100,000 to 110,000 ft - at which altitude they had large diameters of about 100 ft (the maximum altitudes of Skyhook balloons increased with time. In 1956 a record was set at 144,000 ft. Presently the record altitude for an unmanned balloon is 170,000 ft. set in 1972). You would also think that if someone had launched a Skyhook balloon near the testing area the observers would have known it (after all, they wouldn't want the Shrike missile to hit a balloon!) And high altitude balloons move relatively slowly - and they have a "teardrop" shape. The objects also weren't meteors. Meteors travel too fast.

Who's talking about baloons and how high they can go? Building strawmen are we? There are other objects that go high ya know.

February 24 1949
Army/Jet Propulsion Laboratory Bumper-WAC two-stage rocket (WAC Corporal mounted on a V-2 first stage) reaches highest altitude ever attained by manmade object to date - 244 miles - and record speed of 5,150 miles per hour over White Sands, yielding information about ion densities in the F-region of the ionosphere. Some sources indicate that this altitude record officially stood until 1957.
http://www.project1947.com/gfb/gfbchron.html

Meteors travel too fast? How much faster then the measured speed of the observed object? Oh right, they couldn't measure the speed...
 
See? I don't need to know the technical aspects of the speeds and accelerations. All I need to know is that the arguments presented do not stand up when someone that DOES know throws spitballs at them.
 
If you had READ my "blimp" refutation you would have noticed that I deal ALSO with the USNR blimps AND "private" blimps (of which Goodyear is the only contender). Given my comprehensive refutation, covering ALL the “types” of blimp you mention (READ my refutation), this from you is then an utter nonsense.

I read it and noticed that you just ignored the fact that USNR had active blimp bases within flying distance from Rouge river.

Oh, but I have NOT finished producing evidence yet. We are still primarily establishing that UFOs exist.

And BEFORE you say “Oh but everyone agrees with you” I MUST point out that YOUR concept of a UFO differs greatly to mine.

YOU accept Condon’s definition that a UFO is only such because the observer(s) could not identify it at the time of observation.

My definition is stronger. A UFO is unidentified given the data and knowledge we have today and the given the research conducted after the event and the research we are able to be conduct today.

And finally… if YOU contend (claim) a mundane explanation, then you MUST provide evidence that it is a plausible explanation.

And again we have to accept that UFO means alien (since you exclude mundane causes from the definition). Won't happen just because you say so.

And finally… if YOU contend (claim) an alien explanation, then you MUST provide evidence that it is a plausible explanation.
 
BUT - if you claim ANY explanation to be plausible... including "mundane", then you MUST provide evidence for that claim. Merely stating "Oh it could have a mundane explanation" is NOT good enough. We are talking about scientific research here with competing hypotheses. Each hypotheses MUST therefore be supported by the evidence. If one side presents NO evidence for their competing hypothesis (in this case mundane explanations), then the hypothesis is ruled "implausible", and we then consider the hypothesis that DOES have supporting evidence (in this case UFOs and "aliens").

It is that simple..

Search and replace mundane with alien.
 
Which isn't really needed, since mundane must be presumed when lacking any other evidence. If we had to "prove" mundane explanations every time something mundane happened we'd have given up on science and stayed with subsistence living. No one wants to do the same proof over and over again simply because some nitwit comes along and says "The rock fell on my foot because a vicious little brownie was mad at me for not leaving milk at the back door - it had nothing to do with gravity".

Oh - and another reason for just assuming the mundane. It makes it easier on the challenger. He doesn't have to disprove all mundanes, he just has to prove his claim. This is the part that Rramjet seems to have missed - instead of trying to prove his claim he's trying to disprove the mundane. Which will be a waste of time because even after he has disproved all the mundane, there are still tons of exotics he will have to disprove. Kind of silly to use the "if I disprove all possible explanations then you will have to accept my theory" method of argument, but I think I can keep enough silly theories going to amuse us til the end of the forum.
 
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(1) Many people believe that there's a worldwide illuminati of clever people that are “controlling things” and are concealing advanced scientific secrets (and aliens).

(2) Many people (including scientists) believe that time travel will be possible one day which means our future can be visiting us now.

(3) Many people believe in in a spirit “other side“ existence, paranormal activity and gods. How do you know the “UFO” wasn't a God?

(4) Millions of children (and perhaps even a few adults) believe in Santa and that he flies around the world in one night in his sleigh.

Collectively there are many more people who believe these things than there are people that believe that UFO's are created by aliens from outer space. Just because your beliefs aren't the same as their beliefs doesn't mean that your beliefs are any less stupid than theirs.

Provide credible evidence of your beliefs. But first learn what credible evidence is.

ETA - None of these “alternatives” for UFO’s are my contentions so I can‘t and don‘t provide any credible evidence to support them. The point I‘m making is that people believe these things as passionately as you believe your beliefs. As far as I’m concerned you haven’t provided any more credible evidence to support you beliefs than they have to support theirs. Until you can support your “alien UFO” belief with at least a single piece of credible evidence then I won’t discuss your belief in any way that suggests that it has any credibility.

I think you will find I asked for EVIDENCE for your beliefs, not mere statements of belief. Surely if your contentions are correct, then you can find SOME evidence to support them.

Alternatively, if you present them, as you seem to do for no reason at all (ie; " None of these “alternatives” for UFO’s are my contentions so I can‘t and don‘t provide any credible evidence to support them). Then you have given up on rational argument and thus provide me with further evidence that many members of the JREF cannot mount a rational argument when it comes to this topic of UFOs and aliens.
 
I think you will find I asked for EVIDENCE for your beliefs, not mere statements of belief. Surely if your contentions are correct, then you can find SOME evidence to support them.

Alternatively, if you present them, as you seem to do for no reason at all (ie; " None of these “alternatives” for UFO’s are my contentions so I can‘t and don‘t provide any credible evidence to support them). Then you have given up on rational argument and thus provide me with further evidence that many members of the JREF cannot mount a rational argument when it comes to this topic of UFOs and aliens.

It's quite simple, actually. We're here to point at the holes in your theory. In this case, we're looking for the theory amongst the holes.
Instead of trying to disprove everything known to man, how about trying something new - provide some evidence for your assertions.
"Unknown" does not equal "Alien" no matter how many times you say it or how you say it or if I even bothered to look at the physics. "Unknown" will always mean "unknown" until you ADD TO the evidence presented so far.
 
Which isn't really needed, since mundane must be presumed when lacking any other evidence. If we had to "prove" mundane explanations every time something mundane happened we'd have given up on science and stayed with subsistence living. No one wants to do the same proof over and over again simply because some nitwit comes along and says "The rock fell on my foot because a vicious little brownie was mad at me for not leaving milk at the back door - it had nothing to do with gravity".

Oh - and another reason for just assuming the mundane. It makes it easier on the challenger. He doesn't have to disprove all mundanes, he just has to prove his claim. This is the part that Rramjet seems to have missed - instead of trying to prove his claim he's trying to disprove the mundane. Which will be a waste of time because even after he has disproved all the mundane, there are still tons of exotics he will have to disprove. Kind of silly to use the "if I disprove all possible explanations then you will have to accept my theory" method of argument, but I think I can keep enough silly theories going to amuse us til the end of the forum.
Very well said.
 
No one needs to provide evidence that something is not extraordinary. You are the one making the extraordinary claim, the burden of proof is on you. Or, what Lissa said.:D
 
JREF concedes...

Hoo boy.
So, finally I have won the great UFO and aliens debate.
People in the JREF finally have nothing at all rational to say about the evidence for UFOs and aliens.

…and all it took was TWO primary UFO cases – and they just cave in! Just TWO!

Wow! I never expected it to be THIS easy.
I have argued the once mighty JREF into submission…
JREF now concedes that:
First: that UFOs exist
Second: that aliens exist.

They do this by default because they can no longer mount any rational arguments against the evidence I present. They don’t even pretend to try to address the evidence now!

… and I presented evidence for just TWO primary cases.

For those that are interested in the cases that won the debate for me they are as follows:

The Rogue River Case (24 May 1949)
(http://www.brumac.8k.com/Rogue/RogueRiver.html)
(http://www.brumac.8k.com/Rogue/RogueRiver2.htm)
(http://www.nicap.org/docs/rogue490524docs3.htm)

Tehran UFO Incident (19 Sep 1976)
(http://www.brumac.8k.com/IranJetCase/)
(Supporting documentation and discussion)
(http://www.nsa.gov/public_info/_files/ufo/routing_slip_ufo_iran.pdf)
(http://www.nsa.gov/public_info/_files/ufo/now_you_see.pdf)
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_Tehran_UFO_incident)

The secondary case I presented was:

The Kelly-Hopkinsville Encounter (21-22 Aug 1955)
(http://www.nicap.org/kelly-hendry.htm)
(http://ufologie.net/htm/kelly55.htm#witness)

And I WAS going to present the following case:

Brazilian UFO Night (19 May 1986)
(http://www.ufo.com.br/documentos/night/Occurrence Report - Translated.pdf)
(http://www.ufocasebook.com/brazilianairforceadmits.html)
(http://www.allnewsweb.com/page9299893.php)
(http://www.cohenufo.org/BrazilianUFODocumentsReleased.htm)
(http://www.ufodigest.com/news/0909/declassified.php)

But I guess that is totally unnecessary now.

I will make a summary of the arguments and post them ASAP.

WOW. JREF has no more rational arguments against UFOs or aliens!

Well, next I will have to go after Randi to get him to change his encyclopaedia entry on UFOs to reflect the fact that his own JREF members now concede that UFOs exist and that aliens exist.

See you all soon with that summary!

ETA: Oooo in my excitement I forgot a critical case:

White Sands: Twinkle, Twinkle Little Craft (April-May 1950)
(http://www.nicap.org/ncp/ncp-brumac.htm)
(http://www.project1947.com/gfb/twinklereport.htm)

...sorry...
 
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So… As for evidence for unicorns, the situation is qualitatively different than the evidence for UFOs. This IS is quite simple really…

1. There are NO repeated sightings of unicorns, in fact unicorns are NEVER reported. UFOs are reported every day.
But there are plenty of people who see Unicorns, they are in the mental hospital with all those people who keep seeing Aliens.

2. There are no verified photos of unicorns – yet we have literally thousands of photos and video footage of UFOs (including radar confirmation).
But none of the Alien photos/footage has been verified, because its unidentified.

3. We have no reliable, qualified expert witnesses - with sworn testimony - testifying to the existence of unicorns – yet we have precisely that for UFOs.
There are plenty of eyewitnesses in the distant past.

4. We have no physical trace evidence for unicorns – yet we have that for UFOs.
So where is this physical evidence, if you say cropcircles, I will have some unicorn tracks to show you.
 
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Rramjet,

Serious reading comprehension problems, I see.
You offered to produce evidence of aliens.
We said fine, let's see it.
You gave a few anecdotes and a drawing of an elf.
We said, "let's see the evidence of aliens. We aren't arguing any more about your silly diversions."
You declare a win.
I really hope the people that accuse you of being a 12 year old jr high student are correct, because if you're an adult you missed a LOT of education.
 
Rramjet,

Serious reading comprehension problems, I see.
You offered to produce evidence of aliens.
We said fine, let's see it.
You gave a few anecdotes and a drawing of an elf.
We said, "let's see the evidence of aliens. We aren't arguing any more about your silly diversions."
You declare a win.
I really hope the people that accuse you of being a 12 year old jr high student are correct, because if you're an adult you missed a LOT of education.

If you refuse to deal with the evidence I present then of course I declare a win.

I present the evidence.
You have no rational arguments to counter that evidence
I win.
Simple.
 
Here is some evidence

“However, through binoculars he could see many details of the shape and color. “It was rectangular in shape at a height of about 6,000 ft.” The right end was blue, the left end was blue, and in the middle was a red light making a circular motion. He thought that the object was probably cylindrical. “It reminded me of the flashing light of an ambulance, this one (red light) was not flashing. The circular motion of the red light was not continuous. Every 90 degrees or so, it paused for a fraction of a second.” He estimated that it took a second or two to make a complete circle. The object was also oscillating or tilting like a see-saw.”

(…)

“Suddenly it appeared at another position one mile further on.” That is, it was slowly traveling north but suddenly it disappeared and a few seconds later appeared at a further north location. Pirouzi also said it moved southward at times. “I could see it this time as bright as a sun. It was all yellow, like a star, but much bigger. Then it appeared to me to be like a starfish.”

(…)

“Pirouzi gave the binoculars to the others present and “they saw the object as a half-circle, in the same colors, blue, range, red and yellow.” The object seemed to change it’s shape. While Pirouzi over several minutes watched the apparent shape seemed to change from cylindrical, with blue ends and a red light going around the middle, to a fan like shape with drooping blades (“starfish” shaped) with fuzzy edges. The “blades” were dark orange near the hub changing to yellow at the tips. “The hub itself was made up of two concentric areas of color. There seemed to be a large green surface and then a smaller core which glowed like a piece of red hot coal.” One of the trainee witnesses compared it to an orange-red horseshoe with a blue area in the enclosed space of the horseshoe.”
(http://www.brumac.8k.com/IranJetCase/)
 
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