Safe-Keeper
My avatar is not a Drumpf hat
Same thing James Randi did for his astrology presentation, then. Search YouTube for "Randi astrology" or something.
Foolmewunz
Grammar Resistance Leader, TLA Dictator
So you're a dabbler? Colour me sceptical/skeptical. You later say that you're keeping a log of your readings. That sounds like a little more than dabbling.
Along with a couple of others here, I'd like to know just what cards were shown in what sort of a meld that gave you this specific prediction. From what I've seen of tarot reading, you got a couple of anomalous cards and interpreted them for yourself. Does your log record the actual sequence of events and the specific "You will get two job offers" - before they actually happened, or did you later get a couple of job offers and think, "Wow! So that's what the cards were telling me."
Again - specific cards, meld, notes. I turn over tarot cards and I see pretty pictures.
Same request. What cards gave you such a detailed response?
Might the Magic Eight Ball have done the same?
The magic is in your mind and in the minds of those you're playing to. It's not to be scoffed at, it's a wonderful thing the human imagination. But it's imagination, as is much that one terms "magic".
Welcome aboard. We have believers of all sorts, here, so I mean that. I'm not picking on your beliefs - I just feel that you're a little more into it than you're letting on. Pardon our cynicism but we get people starting out here quite often with threads or posts along the lines of, "I've been looking at ________ (homeopathy, cryptozoology, ufology, 911CT) and am not convinced that there's not something to this. How else do you explain XXXX or YYYY." And then, what follows is six hundred posts from a true believer trying to sell us on their particular occult or woo belief.
Last edited:
MikeSun5
Trigger Happy Pacifist,
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2009
- Messages
- 1,871
athon gave a whole bunch of great (and quite specific) ideas as to why they "appear to work."
Another idea why tarot cards appear to work is because there is a myriad of ways to get "information" out of them. I actually designed one a while back (a minchiate deck), and the whole fun was cramming an enormous amount of imagery into the picture to aid with the cold/warm reading. So you've got the standard meanings of the cards plus all this imagery and color to feed off of. It's not hard at all to get some seemingly detailed (and accurate) readings.
Try this: take some index cards and simply write the name of each of the normal tarot cards them. When you use just black words on white cards, see how much the accuracy of your readings suffer.
The fact that you keep a log to see what comes true later just adds to your confirmation bias. Are all of your readings valid forever? Do they have expiration dates? If not, then what you're doing is stockpiling up a ton of random things that could easily apply to your life later.
Try this: put a time limit on your readings. Say one week. When you don't have infinite time for hundreds of readings to come true, see how much the accuracy of your readings suffer.
I should clarify what I mean by 'like the idea of it working'.
You're obviously entertaining the idea that it's possible. Which, in itself, is not a bad stance to take. It's all well and good to try to claim neutrality, but it's an impossible position to hold. We cannot be unbiased. Ever. However, we can be aware of how our perception biases our conclusions.
You might truthfully state it is just a bit of fun that may or may not have its roots in a paranormal phenomenon. However, other have to interpret what you say. You also have an interpretation. There is unintentional feedback being provided by the 'client' (person for who the reading is being done) that influences the reading of the cards. A simple nod here, a smile there...it's all enough to encourage or discourage a slant you'll place on the wording.
Later, they'll confirm or deny. Often, a client will go to great lengths to make it fit. If it's vague and generic enough, it will fit easily. Take into account that the divinations rarely have time constraints, and it can widens the possibility further. What initially seems amazing (because, as I said, we're wired to think of ourselves and our own as relatively unique), when scrutinised, later becomes almost inevitable, or at least rather common.
I'm not sure why it should come as a surprise - they both work on identical psychological principles. Both are ways of divining some form of 'hidden' knowledge, and both often rely on reading of some sort and interpretation of the media used (even if the media is just the random thoughts of a psychic).
Tarot is intentionally non-specific. It refers to 'maternal figures', for instance, rather than specifically 'mother'. That way, it's up to the reader to decide whether it refers to their aunt, grandmother, kind neighbour, teacher etc. You might be amazed at the coincidence of a series of cards indicating a tragedy befalling a maternal figure matching your favourite aunt falling down the stairs the week following a reading. But, given the fact that tragedy could be anything from a theft to a death, maternal figure could be anybody from your sister to your great grandmother and there is no time constraints (it could be tomorrow or a fortnight from now), it becomes less amazing.
I think you'll find a lot of skeptics are people who did the same thing. There are many here who once thought themselves to be psychic, saw ghosts or (as is my case) wondered if there was something to ESP and divination. However, most of us felt paranormal explanations simply were sufficient to explain what we saw. They were too dismissive, to much of a flippant wave of the hands. The explanations that did the best job of explaining it were, however, even more awesome than vague descriptions of magic.
Athon
MikeSun5
Trigger Happy Pacifist,
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2009
- Messages
- 1,871
That's golden!Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2005
- Messages
- 96,955
I collect the cards with really cool artwork.
Mr. E, you need to read about the fallacy of cold reading as others here are also telling you.
Someone at Burning Man was inviting people to dress up to be the card characters. They were taking photos and making a deck out of them. I want one of those decks.
Mr. E, you need to read about the fallacy of cold reading as others here are also telling you.
Someone at Burning Man was inviting people to dress up to be the card characters. They were taking photos and making a deck out of them. I want one of those decks.
Last edited:
MikeSun5
Trigger Happy Pacifist,
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2009
- Messages
- 1,871
Ah, the elusive Stoned Beatnik Deck... I can get you the Organic Edition or Bohemian Edition, but either of them will cost you 3 magic beads, 2 hugs, and an avocado.
Or you can download it here for free.
...man, I hate hippies...
Akhenaten
Heretic Pharaoh
The OP is correct. These Tarot cards ARE amazing!
Czarcasm
Groovy Groovy Guru
You have no friends with any health issues??MrErisian said:
Either you have very few friends, or you are willing to be dishonest just to press your point.
Ditto, my first reading of the OP was leaving me wondering how the cards tell you things like two job offers, or someone moving. I admit to limited experience with the cards, but I know they didn't have a "you will get two job offers in a recession" card. This is simply someones interpretation of the cards that came up?
To the OP, what you are experiencing is exactly the reason this kind of crap has perpetuated for centuries, if not millennia. There is known and somewhat understood psychology going on that makes people prone to want to believe these kinds of things. We've come to identify them, and show how they work. Things like confirmation bias for example. People end up deluding themselves.. and others. But people continue to believe, and turn a blind eye to the growing body of scientific evidence and understanding which shows that they are wrong.
Last edited:
shandyjan
Master Poster
I had a bit of a dabble with them a few years ago too. It seems there are so many meanings it is easy to either pick the right one (hot reading...it was family) or make a general guess.
I wrote everything down so the misses wernt forgotten. There were some very good hits. There were also some things that just idnt relate.
Bob Klase
Master Poster
- Joined
- Mar 9, 2002
- Messages
- 2,937
No, fortunately not!
My magic 8-ball says you're wrong. One of your friends does have some sort of health issue- they just aren't aware of the problem yet.
Wait and see- these predictions are really accurate.
Tarot cards are no more AMAZING than any ink printed on any card (cereal packets for instance).
What is truly AMAZING however is that people like yourself believe that Tarot cards are any more AMAZING than cereal packets.
Robert Oz
Graduate Poster
- Joined
- Dec 3, 2007
- Messages
- 1,455
The two main factors at play here are cold reading and confirmation bias. The good news is, you can eliminate both in some simple tests.
Before I suggest a test you can try, ask yourself the following questions:
1. Does the interpretation of the cards begin with a general description and then move to the more specific based on feedback from the sitter (verbal and non-verbal)?
2. Do you write down the details of the reading as you are giving the reading or after the reading is finished?
3. Do you get later feedback from a sitter and only then realise the specifics of what you saw in the tarot cards?
4. How much of the reading is shaped by your own knowledge of the sitters' lives and personalities?
As for a test, I suggest you perform some readings for users on this forum. The statements should be numbered, rather than a page of information that a sitter can weed through for hits. The statements should be as specific as possible (e.g. two jobs at the same time this past week or moved house this past month). The sitters can then go through the list of numbered statements and mark them as hits or misses. If a sitter believes a statement is too vague, they should mark them as such.
Granted this is a sloppy test, and I welcome suggestions to make it better, but I think it would do in showing that cold reading and confiration bias explain everything you think about tarot cards.
I am perfectly willing to be a subject for a reading. If you are honest in your search for the truth, you will not do searches on the users you are reading to obtain information for a hot reading. If any statements can be traced specifically to past postings of mine, I will say so in my response to the reading with links.
Last edited:
Pup
Philosopher
- Joined
- Dec 21, 2004
- Messages
- 6,679
What he said, and I'd also be glad to volunteer.
fromdownunder
Philosopher
- Joined
- Sep 1, 2006
- Messages
- 6,721
Blimey! Lot of posts to respond to here... I think the idea of testing these things is a good one so I'll post on that first.
As an opening suggestion perhaps the test should run something like this:
Don't misunderstand the nature of my posts here - I'm not going to get all upset if I find out that actually Tarot isn't 'magic' and is in fact a combination of the rational explanations outlined in the posts above. I've tried to keep an open mind on the whole thing throughout.
As an opening suggestion perhaps the test should run something like this:
- Agree upon a querant. I'd prefer a poster who isn't too intent on proving any one point of view. IE a genuine skeptic.
- Work out a reasonable question.
- Once the above are done me and the subject will then, in advance, work out the information we will be getting from the cards. This is pretty easy, they all fall into areas which denote information about a specific area. For example - the subject's hopes and fears as regards the question, the subject's history as regards the question, their conscious mind, etc etc. This information can be easily tested online with instant results. I've noticed that the cards seem to spend a lot of time giving info which can be verified there and then before moving onto the 'predicitons'.
- I think that once we've sorted out the above the questioner should then write out somewhere the response they'd expect as regards the areas we know we'll get instant answers for. That way we can get a clear idea straight away as to how effective they are. If your 'Hopes and Fears' for the question are written down in advance and then the cards flatly contradict what you've written we'll count that as a fail.
- Finally I guess we should work out a time period for the 'predictions' to come true. I guess this is best done by incorporating a duration into the question. So it'd be - how is my career going to go over the next month?
Don't misunderstand the nature of my posts here - I'm not going to get all upset if I find out that actually Tarot isn't 'magic' and is in fact a combination of the rational explanations outlined in the posts above. I've tried to keep an open mind on the whole thing throughout.
If there were ever a place to work out a protocol for testing a proposed paranormal phenomenon, the JREF would be the place. But MrErisian, I think your proposed protocol for testing is far too vague and subjective. These are concepts I'm still developing knowledge and understanding in, so I think I'll leave development of an alternative protocol to another friendly poster.
The term "double blind" springs to mind. One point that somebody raised earlier was the concept of doing multiple readings anonymously, then having individuals dictate which reading they feel best applied to them.
The term "double blind" springs to mind. One point that somebody raised earlier was the concept of doing multiple readings anonymously, then having individuals dictate which reading they feel best applied to them.
Pixel42
Schrödinger's cat
Because of the Forer Effect it's very difficult to establish if perceived accuracy is greater than would be expected by chance. In experiments over 90% of people, given exactly the same reading but believing it to be a reading specifically for them, score it four or five out of five for accuracy.
A blinded experiment, such as the one I described in post 10, is specifically designed to eliminate the Forer Effect as an explanation of perceived accuracy. In such experiments it's possible to calculate in advance how likely it is that the subjects would pick out their own reading by chance, and set a success criteria that is significantly greater than that.
Excellent method. Much better than mine. How many people do we think we should use? Three? More? Who's up for this?