Swine Flu outbreak

skeptigirl said:
Gummy my friend, let's try another approach, because if you can discuss the finer nuances of the characters in Les Miserables, I know you must be a relatively intelligent person.

Why do you think the WHO would have raised the pandemic flu alert level to 5 based on only 7 confirmed fatalities?
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None of the WHO pandemic phases make any mention of the severity of the infection, nor its fatality level. This is something others have tried to get across to those complaining that "pandemic" is a scare tactic. Epidemics and pandemics are references to how widespread the infection is, and how easily it is being transmitted, not how severe the individual infections are.

You could have a common cold pandemic reaching phase 6 and never killing a single person.

Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.
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That's the WHO definition. No mention of severity.

I think perhaps we're talking at cross-purposes here. I'm not talking about the severity of the pandemic, but the severity of the actual infections themselves.

I fully agree that we can expect the pandemic to be much more widespread than currently confirmed cases.

What I don't agree on is that we can expect the severity of actual infections to be, on average, more severe than the average for the currently confirmed cases.

In other words I'm not saying:

"I'm not worried because hardly anyone has it so I won't catch it"

I'm saying:

"I'm not worried because if I catch it I'm not going to get too sick"
 
gumboot said:
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In other words I'm not saying:

"I'm not worried because hardly anyone has it so I won't catch it"

I'm saying:

"I'm not worried because if I catch it I'm not going to get too sick"
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I got that part. I'm saying there ain't no data yet to compare to Mexico's and the WHO confirmed case fatality rate is not the data you seem to be relying on it for.
 
I haven't read this entire thread, but I'm curious if anyone here thinks they may have already got this virus? I got very sick in early February, probably the sickest I have ever been. I felt fine on the Tuesday, Wednesday I was sluggish and knew I probably had something. By Thursday I was full on sick, achy, coughing, sore throat, the works. Friday was no better and by that point it hurt to breathe, sore from the dry coughing. Normally I would have felt better by the Saturday, that's usually how it works. This time though was different, by the Saturday night I was so sick I was almost hallucinating, my chest felt like there was a Mack Truck parked on it and I had the worst headache ever. I didn't get off the couch all day except to get more water, which I probably drank close to 10 L of (nothing to eat). I could barely sleep due to the headache, the pain in my chest and sweating. When I did get to sleep I had a very vivid dream I went out to the bar that night. It was so vivid it took me a while to realize I hadn't actually gone out. It wasn't until Sunday night that I started to feel a little better. I didn't shake it until the Wednesday or Thursday.

I recall thinking to myself that had I been older I probably would have died from this flu. This was the worst and the longest I have ever been sick, by about 3 days. My entire class was sick with this at some point in January or February. Many for longer than a week.

I'm just curious if anyone else had a similar experience with a virus in the last month or so? I seriously think it many have been the same virus.
 
skeptigirl said:
I got that part. I'm saying there ain't no data yet to compare to Mexico's and the WHO confirmed case fatality rate is not the data you seem to be relying on it for.
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No I'm relying on the symptom severity as reported by the various governments handling the infections, and the testimonies of those who have been infected.
 
3bodyproblem said:
I recall thinking to myself that had I been older I probably would have died from this flu. This was the worst and the longest I have ever been sick, by about 3 days. My entire class was sick with this at some point in January or February. Many for longer than a week.

I'm just curious if anyone else had a similar experience with a virus in the last month or so? I seriously think it many have been the same virus.
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Highly unlikely.

You may well have influenza A, which has been prevalent in the northern winter.

The bad news is that having that probably won't affect your ability to catch the piggy form.
 
Oliver said:
Well, I blame mass production under "inhuman" circumstances for these types of threats. Meat should cost twice as much and in return, the Government should pass laws making sure that the animals grow up in a "happy&healthy environment" in return.
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Just for the record, there is no evidence whatsoever that you can get swine flu from eating pork. Factory farming probably results in fewer people in contact with live pigs than traditional farming.

(And I'm a vegetarian!)

ETA: I just caught up with this thread and realized my point has already been made long ago. Nevermind!
 
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More generally the threat of the flu which attacks young adults is what is known as a cytokine stormWP, which attacks those with the more hardy immune systems harder. This was a feature of the 1918 flu epidemic, SARS and H5N1 bird flu. It is suspected of possibly being the reason for the young deaths in Mexico, but as of now the CDC is wary of stating so, as it doesn't seem to be having the same effects elsewhere.
 
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I'm not worried for me, because I never leave the house or come in contact with people.

I am, however, a bit worried for all of you...
 
The Atheist said:
Highly unlikely.

You may well have influenza A, which has been prevalent in the northern winter.

The bad news is that having that probably won't affect your ability to catch the piggy form.
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Well I'm ready for it then. There has to be some kick butt antibodies in me after whatever I had.
 
The Atheist said:
Antivirals did not exist.
Antibiotics did not exist.
Vaccines did not exist.
Medicine has come an awful long way since 1918.
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Antivirals may or may not be effective in mitigating a pandemic and it's seriousness. We can hope.

Antibiotics don't affect flu (a virus).

And pandemics occur when the flu mutates into a new strain, making existing vaccines useless. And by the time you get a new vaccine made and distributed you may have already have lost millions of lives.

Also, medicine may have come a long way but the world hasn't the hospital bed space to deal with the numbers we might be talking about here.

And you also forget that the modern era has brought greater mobility that may allow a pandemic to spread much faster than it did in 1918, overwhelming your medical establishment and making the delay in getting a vaccine that works far more serious.

Plus, the world is far more vulnerable to disruption than it was a century ago when many people lived on the farm and didn't depend on production and distribution systems being intact ... which might not be the case during a pandemic.

So like I said, not necessarily.
 
gumboot said:
No I'm relying on the symptom severity as reported by the various governments handling the infections, and the testimonies of those who have been infected.
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And do you realize you are comparing the symptom severity in a handful of cases compared to the severity which only became apparent after thousands of cases?
 
paximperium said:
We have scattered cases in the region I'm in...the work keeps piling on.
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We don't even have any cases here yet and I'm swamped. Which is not good since I've been procrastinating all day looking at the latest info.

But I did manage to get a respirator fit test kit on short notice, a variety of masks for testing, a new contract to fit test some docs with an unusual practice, and more than enough data on the benefit (or not) of using a fit tested N95 over just a face shield and good handwashing that I think they'll be impressed with my knowledge of the subject. :D
 
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skeptigirl said:
And do you realize you are comparing the symptom severity in a handful of cases compared to the severity which only became apparent after thousands of cases?
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Don't get me wrong, I'm quite aware that the situation could change. It could mutate into a monster virus with 100% fatality. (Okay, not particularly likely, but you get my point?).

I'm basing my concern on what currently is not what might be.
 
BeAChooser said:
Antibiotics don't affect flu (a virus).
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No but they do a good job on secondary bacterial infections (which is what killed the overwhelming majority of victims of the Spanish Flu). Doctors in Mexico have reported that the fatal cases were a result of severe lung tissue damage from pneumonia-type conditions - quite possibly a bacterial infection.
 
gumboot said:
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I'm basing my concern on what currently is not what might be.
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There is no reason to be concerned either way. The problem is very manageable in its current form. But you are ignoring the data we do have (unreliable but still data) and going with no data instead.

All I'm saying is consider the lack of fatalities to be NO data rather than data against.
 
skeptigirl said:
There is no reason to be concerned either way. The problem is very manageable in its current form. But you are ignoring the data we do have (unreliable but still data) and going with no data instead.

All I'm saying is consider the lack of fatalities to be NO data rather than data against.
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I hear you. I'm not sure you're hearing me. I'm not so much talking about fatalities as the severity of the infection. We do have some data for that (both internationally and in Mexico) and it's heartening - the majority of people are recovering quickly.
 
gumboot said:
I hear you. I'm not sure you're hearing me. I'm not so much talking about fatalities as the severity of the infection. We do have some data for that (both internationally and in Mexico) and it's heartening - the majority of people are recovering quickly.
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No, no, you've got it all wrong. You should be jumping to conclusions, panicking, and assuming anyone who doesn't do the same is either uninformed or just plain stupid.
 
gumboot said:
I hear you. I'm not sure you're hearing me. I'm not so much talking about fatalities as the severity of the infection. We do have some data for that (both internationally and in Mexico) and it's heartening - the majority of people are recovering quickly.
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Certainly the Kiwi kids who have had it seem to report less-serious symtoms than any old flu.

Spreading pretty fast, though - I'd say we're only days away from widespread community infection.
 
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