With "longer than a year" as a qualifier, yer UncaYimmy would check 25 of the 26 conditions listed under pain (never had heart pain). Hang around on this planet for 42 years and you're bound to have pain just about everywhere at some point.
Anything Anita puts down as N, 1 or 2 will be omitted from the Hit, Miss analysis. Her marking 3 to a volunteer's 1 will be omitted.
If you mark down symptoms of something as 2 or higher and Anita marks it 3 or higher then, to be honest, I think it is fair enough to consider that a Hit within the parameters of this unofficial study.
If someone marks almost everything as 2 or higher then their form will skew the results. If someone has had pain of 2 or higher in all the places mentioned on the form then they really need to see a doctor.
Anyway, in a
real test this level of freedom of interpretation would not be allowed. This isn't a test and, to be honest, the number of Hits here are only peripherally relevant.
With the discomforts that have a time frame, I would check 12 out of 15. C'mon, who has never been nauseous or dizzy? If you've had the flu at some point in your life, that gives you several things to check.
Unca it looks like you are telling me Anita's form is badly designed.
Uh, I know.
Therefore, a purely random guess has a 90% chance of being right. Your hurdle to continue this charade is that she is only right 15% of the time.
I'll put it back on you. What is your mathematical basis for 1:5 hits to misses? On what are you basing that? What percentage of boxes have to be checked by participants for 15% to have any meaning?
Any percentage of boxes ticked allow a Hit:Miss ratio to be calculated. Please see my definition of Hits and Misses within Anita's described scale. (I'll list all the permutations again when I have a moment - maybe tomorrow night)
The main point of my rather arbitrary figures is that it introduces a pre-agreed point of possible falsification which, as far as I can tell, has been completely absent in the 12 years Anita claims to have had this 'ability'.
It is simply a start point - an introduction to the concept of falsification, rather than anything I feel has any particular importance as a specific statistical cut-off point.
It could easily be argued to alter the weightings or the ratio to be stricter on Anita (and more in line with real statistical analysis) but I feel that would lead Anita to reject it and, within this study, doesn't, inmy opinion, serve a particular purpose other than to simply remove the possibilty of falsification at this stage.
My fugures are clearly well skewed in Anita's favour (i.e. outright falsification is pretty unlikely given the assumptions I have made), but the important point is to agree a real calculable falsification scenario, no matter that it could probably be beaten by the random rolls of a six-sided die.
Also if Anita rejected
this definition of falsification then it is clear she would reject
anything and therefore is not genuinely interested in having any sort of falsification scenario.
The study, if it goes ahead, is almost certain to use Anita's new forms. Nobody likes these forms except Anita, but it looks like they aren't going to change.
I have tried to generate a possible falsification scenario using those forms. If Anita agrees, for the first time, it would be possible for Anita to fail to a level that
would have been pre-agreed constitutes no ability.
There is also agreement by both Anita and skeptics that this test cannot in any way provide evidence
towards suggesting the existence of any 'ability'. So I don't see it is a huge problem to use the figures and assumptions I have made.
But of course I am open to suggestions or modifications.