Ashles said:
The majority of correct results (which anyone could get by putting N to everything) would be No ailment detected, No ailment present. So we remove them (at this stage) as not useful.
Ashles:
The point scale system I suggested is not what I intend to use. It was just a suggestion and is seriously flawed.
Well why not use a non-flawed system?
I am only suggesting all this analysis as you insist on using this scale.
At this preliminary stage it would be far more sensible to conduct a more clear study to see if there is
anything to detect in the first place, rather than formulating a badly designed study to test the strength of many variables which are not confirmed in the first place.
However as this is the only study you appear happy to conduct despite all the advice you have been given then we have to work with that. This is what I am tying to do.
When I claim to detect an ailment then I am simultaneously claiming that the ailment occurs to an extent significant to be perceived by the person.
But Anita this is the problem. This directly contradicts what happened with Wayne's shoulder and throat. Had it been truly insignificant then you would not have mentioned it.
You cannot report something and then say your answer should be ignored as it 'wasn't really an answer'. Presumably you perceived something otherwise you would not have reported anything.
So what we must do is
agree beforehand that such a level of reporting (i.e. a '2' or '1') is considered not an answer. So even if you are correct in the area and ailment it
will not count. You cannot have it both ways.
But the good news is that it appears we have made progress with that below.
Once I make a claimed perception it is open to be checked for accuracy as correct or incorrect. When I do not detect an ailment there is nothing to be checked for or against.
Again, to reiterate, since you claim answers of strength '2' are not really answers then we will consider '2', '1' and 'N' to be the equivalent of you recording 'N'. Any ailment recorded by the volunteer in this area
at any strength will not be counted as successful.
Convesely a lack of ailment by the Volunteer will not be counted as a failure.
Let's call this
Analysis Method 1)
In the interests of completin I will also add that if you disagree with this that is fine:
The alternative is that your '1' and '2' aswers
can be counted as significant answers in which case if the Volunteer has an ailment you can count this as succesful, but if the Volunteer puts 'N' then this
will be an indisputable incorrect perception and be counted as a Miss.
Let's call this
Analysis Method 2)
I am assuming this is a less desirable method to you as it doesn't seem like how you interpreted the results previously.
Please decide on one of those two analysis methods. You cannot mix them.
The when and extent columns are intended for educational purposes for me to get clearer about the details of the claim. The when and extent columns are used for determination of correlation only if those who determine the correlation choose to include it. I will of course look heavily on the extent columns to learn more about my claim, since part of my claim is to be able to perceive to what extent a person perceives their ailments.
And my suggestion for this is as follows:
(N.B. This part of the analysis is purely for your own usage and interpretation and will indicate nothing particularly to skeptics.
If there is ever an actual test hopefully these results would help you decide what ailments to concentrate on)
Similar to your percentage analysis I would suggest that an exact match =100%, and then you deduct 20% for each 'point' on the scale away from what the volunteer put).
Then simply add all the percentages for each ailment. In theory the ones with the highest percentage will be the ones you feel you perceived most closely to what the volunteers put.
There is a bit of a problem in that some rarer ailments are more likely for both you and the volunteer to put 'N' for. In theory those will end up yielding the highest scores, so you would have to compensate for that.
I could suggest ways to do this with weighting calculations, but we can do that at a later stage if necessary - this stage is only for your own analysis so it won't impact our overall perception of accuracy and we can discuss different ways of looking at this bit seperately.
Oh well. It is a study, not a test. But trust me (although none of you will) I will be looking heavily to try to find reasons toward falsifying the claimed ability. *no one believes me that I would do that

*
Well if you accept my proposal of 1:5 Misses to Hits and my analysis method then you will at least have agreed to a potential method of falsification.
I consider this good progress.
Ashles said:
Also it helps you because if you write down N and the subject actually puts a 5 (or anything indicating an ailment) it will still not be counted.
That is correct. If I do not detect an ailment that is not counted against me as a miss. Even though I missed an ailment. Only when I claim to perceive an ailment is it open to be checked for accuracy.
I like that. I like that a lot.
I feel that as the claimant I am not able to determine what ratio would conclude no ability so I will leave it up to the skeptics.
Yes.
Yes.
I will do that.
It sounds like you agree with my proposal. This is excellent.
All you need is to confirm that you agree with using
Analysis Method 1) (you can of course change to
Analysis Method 2) if you want but it seems like you are happy with the first one)
I think I wrote the Hit: Miss ratio incorrectly.
Just t be clear, I am suggesting the ratio of 1 Hit to 5 Misses (or worse) to be considered a falsification.
E.g. if you only got 5 Hits and 25 Misses this would be considered a falsification of the ability (bearing in mind the
Analysis Method 1) definition of Hits).
Personaly I feel this is fairly generous in your favour which seems appropriate at this stage of study.
I must admit I didn't expect you to agree straightaway to my proposals.
You have so I think that's great.
It is not a test! It is a study! It's like if you find a new insect you've never seen before and you want to study its behavior patterns at first you want to observe it in its own environment and take notes and only then do you think about taking it into a lab to subject it to controlled environments in order to find out what specificly caused what! *why can't I do a study on my paranormal claim*
As explained above that is not an appropriate analogy.
In your analogy the existence of the insect is already assumed and accepted. That is not the case with your claim. The analogy of the Leprechaun is very good - you are trying to narrow down the specifics of something that has not been demonstrated to exist in the first place.
That's why stage one should be a more generalised test to see if the ability exists in the first place. You have chosen to do this the other way around, even though you initially presented us with a specifically described set of ailments and the ways in which you perceived these ailments, as though you were already past that stage.
In effect you are saying that all the specific claims on your website should now be discarded as we are starting from scratch and you don't actually know when the ability works or doesn't, or what it can/can't detect.
Ashles said:
ignored undesirable results
I have done no such thing. I have acknowledged that the perception of strain below the sternum as associated with the small intestine might not at all be associated with the small intestine while realizing that in fact it might. I had stated that I found no health problems with Wayne but that I sensed the left shoulder and adam's apple and that neither of those were perceptions of health problems. Besides if results are of inaccuracy I would not consider them to be undesirable.
Let me put it as clearly as I can.
It is
indisputable that there is a huge difference in interpretation of the reported results regarding Wayne's shoulder and throat. You view it one way, everyone else views it in a different way. You cannot deny that.
Therefore it is imperative we take these steps to agree how results should be interpreted before any testing/study/results are recorded. That should prevent any such future differences in interpretation.
Ashles said:
have no method of data analysis, and cannot so far come up with a method of falsification...those take away from your "skills as a scientist
Look at the insect analogy again. Why can't a scientist first study the subject before it is to be investigated further.
Because whether the subect actually exists has to be the first part of the study.
Could anyone study the behaviour of the Bogotian Swamp Ant before actually demonstrating such a thing existed?
Ashles said:
Interesting that your first instinct to get backup for your scientific position is to go to another non-scientist who makes paranormal claims who also leaves his experiments open to interpretation.
As a scientist you should moving away from such clealry inconclusive research and towards stricter scientific protocols.
No, I was intending to conduct that research properly.
You are, at the moment, a very long way away from that.
And anyway I thought you wanted to concentrate on optics and healing with vibration?
Scientists, especialy in groundbreaking fields, can't be generalists, jumping from field to field.
And you really should research the history of scientists who
have dedicated careers to trying to find evidence for the paranormal. It would hopefully explain why real scientists tend to view the field as fruitless and not worth wasting a career on.
The few who do so tend to be either the subject of elaborate (or not-so-elaborate) hoaxes, or so keen to find positive results their work is subject to great criticism of cherry-picking, file-drawer effect, confirmation bias and lack of replicability.
Some have dedicated entire careers towards attempting to demonstrate the paranormal. Not one so far has.
It seems that your leaning towards Mr Emoto before all the other areas a potential future scientist could study imply you have a pre-disposition towards believing in the paranormal.
Ashles said:
And yet you have the opportunity to start that brave stance even as a student, yet constantly shy away from it by refusing to run tests at your own Uni?
In fact this directly contradicts your earlier claims that you don't want asociation with the paranormal to endanger your career..
No contradiction. I started being very hesitant to involve my career with my spare time paranormal investigation. Now that I've communicated with various people about the investigation I feel more encouraged since it wasn't as bad as it could have been. So I am gradually changing my position with regard to this as I learn more about what people in fact do think about this kind of thing.
So your position
has changed? That would be why it looked like a contradiction to me. Fair enough. Changes of stance are to be encouraged.
Ashles said:
Some of the worst work in these fields have been caried out when individuals claiming paranormal ability have been 'tested' by those who also want to believe.
If I test the claims of a woo I will have no interest in seeing them pass or fail. Don't make the assumption that my research would be biased.
And of course that is exactly what
everyone who has ever performed research later shown to be biased has said.
Who ever says they
are biased before research?
Any assumption I make about your bias, or any claim you make about your objectivity is absolutely irrelevant.
The point is you can say or claim what you like - the truth will come out in testing, or, in the cases I am referring to, replicability or analysis of the raw data.
You are still making the mistake that you will somehow change our opinions of your motivations or claim by simply stating what you would like us to accept.
Only independently verified test results can do that. (I think I may have mentioned this repeatedly starting a couple of months ago - you'll note nothing has changed since then)
And I am doing all that. I am taking responsibility and I am open to the possibility of falsifying my claim.
Actions speak louder than words, and now you have agreed to a methodology whereby falsification is possible then I accept that.
The study is not a test. And it is a decent study.
It is not really a decent study. We are having to work round the flaws in it.
It is not unworkable, but it is certainly not the best study that could be run at this stage.
But as you want to run primarily a study that will help you decide which ailments can be best detected (although you have not designed any method of interpreting or extracting that information) and only peripherally have a falsification scenario (which I had to add in for you) then it really could not be said to be a well designed study.
Ashles said:
You want us to concentrate on talking about the study - you should too.
And I do.
Okay let's firm up the protocol. Are you agreed to
Analysis Method 1) and a
1:5 (or worse)
Hit:Miss falsification ratio?
Ashles said:
It seems like you are taking this study and 'ability' to be already assumed and simply the first stepping stone onto an inevitable and exciting career.
Paranormal investigations will
not be my career. It might become an interesting hobby on the side. I am definitely learning a lot by doing a paranormal investigation, so what ever.
So Mr Emoto would just be a quick study/test then?
You wrote:
I intend to be one of the brave scientists who is willing to put her reputation in line to look into unconventional claims or hypotheses that relate to my field of study...
If a woo comes up with some strange claims about some electronic instrument or healing powers then I can be one to objectively consider their claim ...
and perhaps even devote some of my own spare time and resources to find a way to prove and explain why their claims are flawed.
If you open yourself up to such claims you will have no time for anything else.
If you reject some, how are you going to decide which?