Information on Protocol for Pavel Ziborov Applicant

[pavel_do]

I suspect JREF is going to want you to agree at the beginning of the test that conditions are satisfactory. But then, I don't speak for JREF

If I am not mistaken I will have to state it to the camera.. before the begging of the test. That I will do.

 

[Rodney]

I guess we speak a different language, because that does not sound at all like "The MDC Challenge is proof that the paranormal does not exist," to me.

So, with respect to the MDC, what is Randi "right" about?

Yes, I think he should be re-tested 1,000,000 times until he wins by chance, because I like the guy!

Getting 29 out of 40 correct would defy odds of better than 300 to 1 against -- not very likely to be a chance result.

 

[Ravenwood]

So that would be between the chance of drawing a Straight and drawing a Flush in a 5 card poker hand. Hardly ground shaking odds, & certainly within the realm of chance...

 

[Rodney]

So that would be between the chance of drawing a Straight and drawing a Flush in a 5 card poker hand. Hardly ground shaking odds, & certainly within the realm of chance...

What you're missing is that defying those odds the very first time -- whether in a Randi test or in a poker game -- is unusual. Obviously, if you play poker long enough, you will eventually draw a straight, a flush, and even a royal straight flush.

 

[steenkh]

What you're missing is that defying those odds the very first time -- whether in a Randi test or in a poker game -- is unusual. Obviously, if you play poker long enough, you will eventually draw a straight, a flush, and even a royal straight flush.

So you are suggesting that if Pavel gets lucky, Randi should for some reason raise his chance of taking the million by giving him another test?

The JREF prize is there for people to prove what they claim to do, and if they cannot do it, that is the end of it. If somebody else finds it so fascinating that a claimant almost did it, he is free to do his own testing of the former claimant.

If Pavel only thinks he can do 29/40, that should have been his claim.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

I suspect JREF is going to want you to agree at the beginning of the test that conditions are satisfactory. But then, I don't speak for JREF

If I am not mistaken I will have to state it to the camera.. before the begging of the test. That I will do.

Yes, Pavel, you certainly will have to answer the question if the conditions meet your satisfaction.
I made my last post - using pedantry and emphasis - to illustrate a point.

If you do not agree with the conditions then there simply will be no test.

Weeding out even the slightest possibilities of interference to your claimed powers before the test happening only serves one purpose: To make sure the test will take place satisfying all parties involved.

 

[Pup]

The protocol seems pretty reasonable, but the definition of "success" seems pretty arbitrary.

When the point of the challenge is either to award a million dollars for succeeding, or nothing for failing, how could the definition be anything else but arbitrary? It's not like the challenger gets a million for 30 right, $500,000 for 29 right, $100,000 for 28 right...

 

[Marcus]

Pavel has promised no excuses if he fails. Although this would be unprecedented behaviour for a challenger, I think we could give him the benefit of the doubt and assume this will be the case.

 

[Czarcasm]

Pavel has promised no excuses if he fails.

Nope, just excuses to back out of the test in the first place(sounds, smells, sights, atmospheric conditions.)

 

[pavel_do]

So you are suggesting that if Pavel gets lucky, Randi should for some reason raise his chance of taking the million by giving him another test?

The JREF prize is there for people to prove what they claim to do, and if they cannot do it, that is the end of it. If somebody else finds it so fascinating that a claimant almost did it, he is free to do his own testing of the former claimant.

If Pavel only thinks he can do 29/40, that should have been his claim.

I cant claim 29 out of 40.. cause that not beating 1.000 odds..

 

[pavel_do]

Re to all the posts about an excuses to back off from the test etc..
As I said before I am not child, and see no point in wasting my time and time of the others.. I spent allot of effort, money and time by now to move the test and to be tested, I spent almost 6 months in US hoping that while I ma here it could happen faster, all the running after Academics to find one that would find time to test me in order to write an affidavit letters to be able to aply for it.. etc.. I am not a spoiled reach guy who can afford wast his time.. and than “leave with pump” by saying in last moment,.. I don’t like the smell or something! In my proposal I have tried to list all the possible reasons that could affect the results.. I mentioned them.. I didn’t put any stupid excuses like If I don’t like some ones bad vibes, energy I want this person to leave the room ( and that could be even JREF representatives or someone elts), or I want it to be in midnight with a foul moon or in darknes or what ever elts stupid can be invented.! I listed reasonable and things they do affect me. Any way almost all of them was removed by now.

 

[IXP]

So, with respect to the MDC, what is Randi "right" about?

I think the MDC is excellent evidence that there are many people out there claiming abilities that they do not have. Period. No more, no less.

IXP

 

[GzuzKryzt]

Re to all the posts about an excuses to back off from the test etc..
As I said before I am not child, and see no point in wasting my time and time of the others.. I spent allot of effort, money and time by now to move the test and to be tested, I spent almost 6 months in US hoping that while I ma here it could happen faster, all the running after Academics to find one that would find time to test me in order to write an affidavit letters to be able to aply for it.. etc.. I am not a spoiled reach guy who can afford wast his time.. and than “leave with pump” by saying in last moment,.. I don’t like the smell or something! In my proposal I have tried to list all the possible reasons that could affect the results.. I mentioned them.. I didn’t put any stupid excuses like If I don’t like some ones bad vibes, energy I want this person to leave the room ( and that could be even JREF representatives or someone elts), or I want it to be in midnight with a foul moon or in darknes or what ever elts stupid can be invented.! I listed reasonable and things they do affect me. Any way almost all of them was removed by now.

For what it is worth, Pavel, I have to admit you do seem sincere enough to actually perform a controlled test. I have the recipe for humble pie ready.

We - and by we I mean: I - tend to have a very critical position towards claims like yours. The vast majority of your predecessors rambled the heck out of their keyboards.

Remember to describe as specific as possible what conditions you need to perform so that you and the JREF can weed out any difficulties before the test. The more specific the protocol the less probable it is for any difficulties to arise and hinder your performance.



If you actually perform the controlled test you envision, regardless of the outcome I'd have a drink with you any day.

 

[Rodney]

I think the MDC is excellent evidence that there are many people out there claiming abilities that they do not have. Period. No more, no less.

IXP

Yes, but my point is that Randi does not believe in the paranormal, as opposed to being open-minded about it.

In any event, good luck to Pavel.

 

[Paul2]

Yes, but my point is that Randi does not believe in the paranormal, as opposed to being open-minded about it.

Not believing in something and being open-minded about it are not mutually exclusive. Can you show that they must be? Why can't Randi be/do both?

 

[Rodney]

Not believing in something and being open-minded about it are not mutually exclusive. Can you show that they must be? Why can't Randi be/do both?

I guess it depends on your perspective, but again, what do you think Randi meant when he stated: "Concerning the challenge, I always have an 'out': I'm right!"

 

[Moochie]

I guess it depends on your perspective, but again, what do you think Randi meant when he stated: "Concerning the challenge, I always have an 'out': I'm right!"

He can say this because he's been there, done that. Evidently you haven't. That is to say, there are laws that have been established and tested, ad nauseam, and perhaps Mr. Randi doubts that they ever will be overturned.

How do you see this?


M.

 

[chillzero]

Please take that to a new thread for discussion, and keep this one on the topic of Pavel's protocol. Thank you.

Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: chillzero

 

[steenkh]

I cant claim 29 out of 40.. cause that not beating 1.000 odds..

You should find out what you can claim according to your abilities, and then a protocol should be constructed to reflect that with the required odds. But of course I understand that you have never done this kind of experimentation before, so you actually do not know just what your abilities are. You have now settled on a protocol and you can only hope that your abilities can live up to the expectation.

 

[Peristarkawan]

Getting 29 out of 40 correct would defy odds of better than 300 to 1 against -- not very likely to be a chance result.

And what if Pavel gets only 10 correct out of 40? The odds of that are the same as the odds of getting 30 correct. Do you claim Pavel should also be retested in that case?