Yeah, I'm sure. And, I'm sure the people who plug these "parameters" into computer models take just as great care with their "predictions" and "simulations".
-Dr. Imago
-
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How To Be A Global Warming Sceptic
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Yeah, I'm sure. And, I'm sure the people who plug these "parameters" into computer models take just as great care with their "predictions" and "simulations".
-Dr. Imago
One more thing...
Do you know what a "triple point" is, AUP? I'll give you a clue. It is the temperature and pressure at which a molecule can exist in all three phases at the same time - gas, liquid, and solid. Every molecule has one.
It is impossible to "interpolate" a triple point based on observations. You can try. But, you actually have to put the substance in the lab and do the experiment if you want to know precisely where the triple point is.
What's my point? Sometimes the proof is in the pudding. You got to put it in a beaker and test it. No amount of "interpolation" will suffice.
-Dr. Imago
Do you know what a "triple point" is, AUP? I'll give you a clue. It is the temperature and pressure at which a molecule can exist in all three phases at the same time - gas, liquid, and solid. Every molecule has one.
It is impossible to "interpolate" a triple point based on observations. You can try. But, you actually have to put the substance in the lab and do the experiment if you want to know precisely where the triple point is.
What's my point? Sometimes the proof is in the pudding. You got to put it in a beaker and test it. No amount of "interpolation" will suffice.
-Dr. Imago
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
You seem to me to be the sort of person who would be a diligent and careful doctor. Why do you not give the same professional consideration to these scientists? Don't forget, the Hitrans database has nothing to do with the IPCC. It was initially set up by the US armed forces to deal with investigations into detecting aircraft, and they needed to know about the IR from the atmosphere. Read their documentation.
http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/hitran/Download/HITRAN04paper.pdf
I am. But, I also know my limitations. What interests me most are those who don't.
-Dr. Imago
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
Have you bothered to read anything about it? They are recognised around the world as the authoritave source of information on their area of specialisation. They have been in the business for about 40 years. They were not created to tell the IPCC what it wanted to hear. I have linked to the history and the latest report. We aren't just talking about one scientist. There is a whole institution. If they are hiding something, you can guarantee there are scientists in other parts of the world who would get a big pat on the back for demonstrating where they are in error. I hope I can assume you would not think they are part of a conspiracy to hide the truth from us?
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
Someone out there is way ahead of you. I think that in terms of AGW and the earth's atmosphere, it's a non issue.
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Round Robin
Thinker
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I stand in awe that you--a layperson--will dismiss world-recognized experts in the field of spectroscopy, yet would be convinced by a high-school level experiment of your design.
Are you truly so entrenched in your ideology, so dismissive of authoritative sources, so utterly intransigent that you are willing to ignore decades of established scientific knowledge because you don't like the idea of AGW?
Didn't the same thing happen to Michael Behe a the Dover, PA trial? After declaring that there was no evidence for the evolution of the immune system by natural selection, he was presented with dozens of peer-reviewed papers and texts that he declared to be "not sufficient."
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Straw man. And irrelevant to this discussion.
I have, again and repeatedly, called into question the use of "speculation" in any shape and form it takes. You "warmers" love to twist that into a "belief" that I'm completely discounting the scientific process and the value of expert opinion - all science and expert opinion.
All I have done, well within my right, is to critique and point out the limitations of the current knowledge base. Nothing more. And, that is interpreted speciously as a wholehearted rejection of anything that you believe I may or may not happen to agree with. How intellectually dishonest, self-serving, and convenient of you. I have never outright rejected any AGW claims and I challenge you to show me anywhere I've posted on this topic that I have. But, I have not accepted them either.
If you build-up a discipline around mainly suppositions and projections - on subject matter where no clear cause-effect relationship has been proven - you will start to begin to see circular references and additional "layering" of concepts based on previously accepted and unquestioned concepts. This happens all the time in medical science, and sometimes it takes years for previously held notions to be realized for the folly that they were.
Occassionally, it is time to go back to fundamentals and revisit the basics, especially when the actual mechanisms (which have been freely admitted on this very thread) are yet to be fully elucidated in what everyone (who has a shred of intellectual honesty) will admit is a complex system that is not fully understood. Sometimes it is worthwhile to ask the simple question and get back to basics.
The HITRAN website itself is quite clear that they are making "logical leaps". And, the purpose of this database is to be used as a reference for computer models. It is not a hidden part of that website. They are quite clear and upfront about that. I've pointed that out enough on this thread with appropriate links.
Lastly, I am not a layperson. I am a physician and medical scientist who is quite aware of and has published in the peer-review process. I am fully aware of the limitations of the often "rubber stamp" of peer-review. I question everything. Just because it's peer-reviewed and published does not mean it's relevant. That is a lesson that every qualified physician knows and takes into practice everyday. While we usually agree on general principles, there is often a wide body of interpretation in what's best in individual circumstances and often conflicting data regarding the same. That's when you rely on your training and common sense to develop the best course of action. Take the case of Trasylol, which has gotten so much press recently. I will tell you that the drug continues to be used on a daily basis and is saving lives during cardiac surgery, much as bad science and innuendo has tried to indict and bury it. A lot of lawyers stand to gain a lot of money if bad science wins. Why should this area of endeavor be any different? I don't inherently trust a priori anything being produced by the AGW machine.
What I do see here is a lot of layman, like yourself, who don't understand how this process works and make a lot of assumptions that because some regal guard has published or amassed a body of work - and the so-called experts seem to agree (which is arguable in this case) - that it is therefore beyond reproach. You all need to learn to be a little more skeptical.
So, don't try to lecture me about intransigence and ideology. You are pointing a finger at me but you're pointing three back at yourself, my friend.
-Dr. Imago
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a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
I must say, in reference to to topic for this thread, you have picked the perfect place to make your stand on this aspect of AGW. Arguing the way you have in the face of well established and accepted science, by a person who claims to be well educated and scientifically literate, that black is white, is very instructive. It is interesting to see a mind at work at this process.
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
You have been told already, this database is 40 years old. Are you seriously trying to say they still haven't worked out what the spectral response of CO2 is?
You won't even settle on a very simple, single, point. What is the spectral response of CO2? We don't know. Why? Because we can't know. Why? *use of "speculation"*. Look at the list of references attached at the end of this. Everyone of those scientists is too stupid, ignorant, lazy or easily lead to understand what you alone know. Amazing.
"Logical Leaps" Find me where they use that phrase in their documents.
Let me see. There is a list of 204 references at the end of the report. Who do I believe? How do I know it's not all just a pathetic, rubber stamping sham? I am just a layman, but should I go with a hundreds of scientists who specialise in this area, or an MD who did some university physics years ago. I am pretty stupid, (being a layman) but I'll go with the specialists. Sorry. (I won't, however, see any of these people if I have a medical problem.)
Here is the list of the "regal guard" used as references for the latest HITRAN report.
References
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Massie ST, Nemtchinov V, Newnham D, Perrin A, Rinsland CP, Schroeder J, Smith K, Smith MAH, Tang K,
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TrueSceptic
Master Poster
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Yes, it is, but are you open-minded about this? Do you presently consider it equally likely or unlikely?
I'm not claiming that you and mhaze should agree. What I noted was that GWS never seem to challenge one another whereas they will attack a "warmer" for saying much the same thing as another "sceptic".
Example: Pat Michaels accepts the CO2 GH effect. Why would that be?
mhaze
Banned
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a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
The warm, fuzzy basket of feelings of Warmers must be protected.
Science is warm and fuzzy? News to me. The whole problem is that the science has found something that is confronting and uncomfortable.
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Yeah, I'm being "told" a lot of things. You are confusing a couple of issues here. I've never said that they can't work out the spectral response of CO2. I've said that they made a lot of inferences to "fill in the gaps" and that, furthermore, the intent of this database is to provide a reference for computer models. I haven't said that, actually, they have.
More thought insertion. And, even more irrelevance. The point is (read this carefully) that this database uses calculations to fill in the gaps of observation. They clearly state this. And, I've already linked to where this is explicitly stated. It has nothing to do with being stupid, lazy, or ignorant. And, it has nothing to do with what I purportedly know or don't know.
Second, the "spectral response" of CO2 is known.
http://physics.nist.gov/PhysRefData/CO2/Html/chap3.html
You are confusing two different concepts here. The exact known properties of a molecule, and the action of that molecule in a kinetic mixture of gasses at various fractions and differing temperatures and pressures. For this, you have to rely on what you believe is how the individual properties of molecules will interact given their known properties when placed together. To do this without conducting the actual experiment at particular fractions, you have to make assumptions of how those molecules will interact act given their known properties. Doesn't mean that they will actually act that way (but probably will within a relatively margin of error).
My term to describe this statement:
... which I think is an adequate paraphrase.
Again with the numbers of scientists/papers/peer-reviewed publications. When can we agree, other than when it conveniently suits you, that the number of scientists or publications doesn't mean anything.
And, peer-review itself? It is not the be-all, end-all or final say in the process. And, I've seen it abused. This statement, from the editor of the Lancet, nicely summarizes some of the pitfalls of peer-review... read it as a cautionary tale (the bolded and underlined part is specifically direct to you)...
http://www.mja.com.au/public/issues/172_04_210200/horton/horton.html
Question everything you think you know. Question it twice. Then question it again. If you do not, you cannot call yourself a skeptic.
-Dr. Imago
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Why does it bother you so much that I don't have a direct opinion on the matter? My reaction and postings are directed at the absolutism I see on this forum; that the matter is settled. I would be equally fervent in responding to any gang of would-be bullies, if they formed a supposed "consensus" and basis of general opinion, who were parading around opinions that reflected the exact opposite of yours.
For example, if you were suddenly to switch your argument to the premise that all the data shows the planet is cooling and that humans are influencing that - and that their was no doubt about it based on the data - I would be similarly pointing out the flaws in your thinking and demanding more "proof of principle" for your arguments.
What I am against is the incredible hubris displayed by those who are convinced that they can't possibly be wrong.
-Dr. Imago
TrueSceptic
Master Poster
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- Jan 25, 2008
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- 2,143
I don't care whether you have a direct opinion. What I do care about is that you claim to be an open-minded sceptic whilst refusing to accept any evidence offered to you.
The only absolutism I see, here and elsewhere, is from GWS who carry on saying that warming, if it exists, can't possibly be because of CO2, regardless of the evidence, and they will probably say this until they die.
The bullies I see are the "sceptics" who hurl abuse at anyone who dares to challenge them. You are a pleasant exception to this, but an exception you are.
You would be correct in doing so, but you must accept that this is a possibility, at least in principle.
I am too: I see this all the time when sceptics arrogantly abuse anyone who challenges them.
I don't see anyone on the AGW "side" claiming certainty on this.
You are one of the most sincere GWS I've come across but misguided IMAO (in my arrogant opinion).
Round Robin
Thinker
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With all due respect to the schooling and training required to become a physician, unless you also hold an advanced degree in physics and have credentials in the specialized field of spectroscopy, you, too, are a layperson.
I am not ignoring your other points; I am in forum blackout for a while as today is my daughter's second birthday party which, I confess, must take priority!
mhaze
Banned
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- Jan 10, 2007
- Messages
- 15,718
Some indeed think they are useful little AGW Cheerleaders when continually arguing personalities, ad hominems and distortions. Quite unlike these scientists and their actual real world outputs -
A mechanism for sun-climate connection
(Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, 2005)
- Sultan Hameed, Jae N. Lee
A Millennium Scale Sunspot Reconstruction: Evidence For an Unusually Active Sun Since the 1940's
(Physical Review Letters 91, 2003)
- Ilya G. Usoskin, Sami K. Solanki, Manfred Schüssler, Kalevi Mursula, Katja Alanko
Altitude variations of cosmic ray induced production of aerosols: Implications for global cloudiness and climate
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 107, No. A7, 1118, 2002)
- Fangqun Yu
Celestial Climate Driver: A Perspective from Four Billion Years of the Carbon Cycle
(Geoscience Canada, Volume 32, Number 1, March 2005)
- Ján Veizer
Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate?
(GSA Volume 13, Issue 7, July 2003)
- Nir J. Shaviv, Ján Veizer
Cosmic rays and Earth's climate
(Space Science Review 93: 155-166, 2000)
- Henrik Svensmark
Cosmic rays and climate - The influence of cosmic rays on terrestrial clouds and global warming
(Astronomy & Geophysics, Volume 41 Issue 4 Page 4.18-4.22, August 2000)
- E Pallé Bagó, C J Butler
Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate
(Space Science Reviews, v. 94, Issue 1/2, p. 215-230, 2000)
- Nigel Marsh, Henrik Svensmark
Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges
(Astronomy & Geophysics, Volume 48 Issue 1 Page 1.18-1.24, February 2007)
- Henrik Svensmark
Empirical evidence for a nonlinear effect of galactic cosmic rays on clouds
(Royal Society of London Proceedings Series A, Vol. 462, Issue 2068, 2006)
- R. Giles Harrison, David B. Stephenson
Evidence of Solar Variation in Tree-Ring-Based Climate Reconstructions
(Solar Physics, Volume 205, Number 2, Pages 403-417, February 2002)
- M.G. Ogurtsov , G.E. Kocharov, M. Lindholm, J. Meriläinen, M. Eronen, Yu.A. Nagovitsyn
Evidence for a physical linkage between galactic cosmic rays and regional climate time series
(Journal Advances in Space Research, February 2007)
- Charles A. Perrya
Formation of large NAT particles and denitrification in polar stratosphere: possible role of cosmic rays and effect of solar activity
(Atmos. Chem. Phys., 4, 2273-2283, 2004)
- F. Yu
Geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change
(PNAS, Vol. 97, No. 23, 12433-12438, November 7, 2000)
- Charles A. Perry, Kenneth J. Hsu
Has solar variability caused climate change that affected human culture?
(Advances in Space Research, Volume 40, Issue 7, Pages 1173-1180, 2007)
- Joan Feynmana
Influence of Cosmic Rays on Earth's Climate
(Physical Review Letters - November 30, 1998 - Volume 81, Issue 22, pp. 5027-5030)
- Henrik Svensmark
Is solar variability reflected in the Nile River?
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, D21114, 2006)
- Alexander Ruzmaikin, Joan Feynman, Yuk L. Yung
Length of the Solar Cycle: An Indicator of Solar Activity Closely Associated with Climate
(Science, Vol. 254. no. 5032, pp. 698 - 700, November 1991)
- E. Friis-Christensen, K. Lassen
Linkages between solar activity, climate predictability and water resource development
(Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering, Vol 49 No 2, Pages 32–44, June 2007)
- W J R Alexander, F Bailey, D B Bredenkamp, A van der Merwe, N Willemse
Long-Period Cycles of the Sun's Activity Recorded in Direct Solar Data and Proxies
(Solar Physics, Volume 211, Numbers 1-2, December, 2002)
- M.G. Ogurtsov, Yu.A. Nagovitsyn, G.E. Kocharov, H. Jungner
Low cloud properties influenced by cosmic rays
(Phys. Rev. Lett., 85(23), 5004-5007, 2000)
- Nigel D Marsh, Henrik Svensmark
On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 110, A08105, 2005)
- Nir J. Shaviv
On the possible contribution of solar-cosmic factors to the global warming of XX century
(Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics, Volume 71, Number 7, July, 2007)
- M. G. Ogurtsov
On the relationship of cosmic ray flux and precipitation
(Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 28, No. 8, pp. 1527–1530, 2001)
- Dominic R. Kniveton and Martin C. Todd
Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene
(Science, Vol. 294. no. 5549, pp. 2130 - 2136, 7 December 2001)
- Gerard Bond, Bernd Kromer, Juerg Beer, Raimund Muscheler, Michael N. Evans, William Showers, Sharon Hoffmann, Rusty Lotti-Bond, Irka Hajdas, Georges Bonani
Phenomenological solar contribution to the 1900–2000 global surface warming
(Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, L05708, 2006)
- N. Scafetta, B. J. West
Phenomenological solar signature in 400 years of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperature record
(Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, L17718, 2006)
- N. Scafetta, B. J. West
Reply to Lockwood and Fröhlich – The persistent role of the Sun in climate forcing
(Danish National Space Center Scientific Report, 3/2007)
- H. Svensmark, E.Friis-Christensen
Regional tropospheric responses to long-term solar activity variations
(Advances in Space Research, Volume 40, Issue 7, Pages 1167-1172, 2007)
- O.M. Raspopov, V.A. Dergachev, A.V. Kuzmin, O.V. Kozyreva, M.G. Ogurtsov, T. Kolström and E. Lopatin
Rhodes Fairbridge and the idea that the solar system regulates the Earth’s climate
(Journal of Coastal Research, SI 50, pp. 955-968, 2007)
- Richard Mackey
Solar correlates of Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude climate variability
(International Journal of Climatology, Volume 22, Issue 8 , Pages 901 - 915, 27 May 2002)
- Ronald E. Thresher
Solar Cycle Variability, Ozone, and Climate
(Science, Vol. 284. no. 5412, pp. 305 - 308, 9 April 1999)
- Drew Shindell, David Rind, Nambeth Balachandran, Judith Lean, Patrick Lonergan
Solar total irradiance variation and the global sea surface temperature record
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 96, NO. D2, Pages 2835–2844, 1991)
- George C. Reid
Solar Variability Over the Past Several Millennia
(Space Science Reviews, Volume 125, Issue 1-4, pp. 67-79, Friday, December 22, 2006)
- J. Beer, M. Vonmoos, R. Muscheler
Suggestive correlations between the brightness of Neptune, solar variability, and Earth's temperature
(Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, L08203, 2007)
- H. B. Hammel, G. W. Lockwood
Surface warming by the solar cycle as revealed by the composite mean difference projection
(Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, L14703, 2007)
- Charles D. Camp, Ka Kit Tung
The Antarctic climate anomaly and galactic cosmic rays
(physics/0612145v1, 2006)
- Henrik Svensmark
The link between the solar dynamo and climate - The evidence from a long mean air temperature series from Northern Ireland
(Irish Astronomical Journal, vol. 21, no. 3-4, p. 251-254, 09/1994)
- C.J. Butler, D.J. Johnston
Variations in Radiocarbon Concentration and Sunspot Activity
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 66, p.273, 01/1961)
- Stuiver, M.
Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages
(Science, Vol. 194. no. 4270, pp. 1121 - 1132, 10 December 1976)
- J. D. Hays, John Imbrie, N. J. Shackleton
Variation of Cosmic Ray Flux and Global Cloud Coverage - a Missing Link in Solar-Climate Relationships
(Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 59, 1225-1232, 1997)
- Henrik Svensmark, Eigil Friis-Christensen
Variations of solar coronal hole area and terrestrial lower tropospheric air temperature from 1979 to mid-1998: astronomical forcings of change in earth's climate?
(New Astronomy, Volume 4, Issue 8, Pages 563-579, January 2000)
- W. Soon, S. Baliunas, E. S. Posmentier, P. Okeke
Variable solar irradiance as a plausible agent for multidecadal variations in the Arctic-wide surface air temperature record of the past 130 years
(Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, L16712, 2005)
- Willie W.-H. Soon
What do we really know about the Sun-climate connection?
(Advances in Space Research, Volume 20, Issue 4-5, p. 913-921, 1997)
- Eigil Friis-Christensen, Henrik Svensmark
Will We Face Global Warming in the Nearest Future?
(Geomagnetism i Aeronomia, Vol. 43, pp. 124-127, 2003)
- V. S. Bashkirtsev, G. P. Mashnich
Yes. The current AGW argument is from...
Ignorance: 1 a: destitute of knowledge or education <an ignorant society>; also : lacking knowledge or comprehension of the thing specified <parents ignorant of modern mathematics> b: resulting from or showing lack of knowledge or intelligence <ignorant errors>2: unaware, uninformed
Specifically, there are potentially many other factors contributing to GW that have either been ignored or mimized in favor of the predominating CO2 hypothesis, which forms the basis of the AGW argument. Many of these things have been covered repeatedly on this and other threads. Many AGW believers either diminish the potential impact of these things, or they don't even consider them. Such examples include solar variation (which has been argued to death on this forum), the potential predominating effect of the ENSO in the Pacific, and, as I have pointed out repeatedly, the actual magnitude of effect of CO2 isolated as a single variable at the microfractions being discussed.
Association:1 a: the act of associating b: the state of being associated : combination, relationship 2: an organization of persons having a common interest : society 3: something linked in memory or imagination with a thing or person 4: the process of forming mental connections or bonds between sensations, ideas, or memories 5: the aggregation of chemical species to form (as with hydrogen bonds) loosely bound complexes 6: a major unit in ecological community organization characterized by essential uniformity and usually by two or more dominant species
There has yet to be proven a causal link between elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, upon which the AGW argument is predicated, and observed temperature phenomenon. Scientists have observed an association, a trend if you will, that shows a temperature increase over previous decades. They've also witnessed an increase in global CO2 concentration. These ideas have been conjoined and concluded by some scientists to be a causal relationship, which has yet to be proven.
Assumption: 1 a: the taking up of a person into heaven bcapitalized : August 15 observed in commemoration of the Assumption of the Virgin Mary 2: a taking to or upon oneself <the assumption of a new position> 3: the act of laying claim to or taking possession of something <the assumption of power> 4: arrogance, pretension 5 a: an assuming that something is true b: a fact or statement (as a proposition, axiom, postulate, or notion) taken for granted 6: the taking over of another's debts
Because they have seen a rise in CO2 concentration, and also observed a trend over time of temperature increase, they have made the assumption that there is a causal relationship. Since this assumption is felt to be correct and is taken for granted, the entire body of science has gone off in that direction and is now serving primarily to re-affirm that assumption. They have not, in many instances, used rigorous science in attempt to nullify that hypothesis. There have not been adequate prospective studies. There has not been willing independent sharing and investigation of data. And, much serious and legitimate critique of methodology has been either ignored or inadequately responded to. I'm most interested (at the moment) of those attempting to expose the limitations of the field of dendrochronology, upon which much of the historical temperature data for the last 1000 years is based.
Now, how is that clarification different from anything I've said before? Please. Show me where I am being inconsistent. Just because I question the shakey methodology of the current science doesn't mean I've formed a firm opinion on whether or not GW/AGW is occurring. I would love to see more rigorous data that would convince me either way. But, I am sick and tired of people trying to jam a lot of recondite gibberish down our collective throats as fact, much of which is based on ignorance (of other disciplines, alternate possibilities), association (which does not prove causation), and assumption (that all the current science is sound and beyond reproach).
Thank you for your continued interest in my posts.
-Dr. Imago