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Evolution Not Random

You should write this every time you say 'evolution is random', I'm sure people will be really interested then.

Yep. :p

(I think that makes it on par with saying: "evolution is a noun". It's a semantic argument that doesn't convey any information of value. It doesn't matter how many ways you could justify saying "evolution is a noun", it still doesn't mean that it's informative or clear to interject your opinion on the matter at every opportunity... so, gee, I wonder what the goal could be"?
 
Meadmaker, thank you for an excellent post. You've summed up things nicely.

More accurately, I think the two should be given different weight depending on what you are describing. Either can lead to misunderstanding of the process. I think insistence on saying that one or the other is "better" either means you are fixated on one aspect, or there's some sort of psychological or ideological bias against the other.

I quite agree with this (your whole post actually, but I didn't want to quote it all), with the exception that I don't think it's necessarily an indication of a psychological or ideological bias. Some people just like to argue. I should know. I'm one of them. :)
 
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Let me try to clear that up. The wavefunction gives the probability of finding the particle at some position. It is a function of position, and its value (really its norm squared) at some point is the probability density for finding the particle at that point. Because it is a wave, it can interfere with itself (as in the double slit experiment). A theory in which the particle is really at some specified position all the time cannot do that - that's actually proven by a mathematical theorem, Bell's theorem.

I understand the mathematical abstraction, but how does it relate to reality ?

Please think again about double slit. Remember, the interference occurs when no observation has been made at the slits (it doesn't occur when an observation has been made, because in that case the wavefunction collapses). So the interference has nothing to do with observation perturbing the experiment - quite the contrary.

See ? I was under the impression that the observation was what changed the results (Well, of course, technically it was, because the results aren't the same when you observe), because the observation knocked the particles in other directions...

Well, the statement of the theorem is "No physical theory of local hidden variables can ever reproduce all of the predictions of quantum mechanics." The particle actually having a location is a hidden variable.

I don't understand that.
 
You should write this every time you say 'evolution is random', I'm sure people will be really interested then.

Oops. :o

The in-line quotation, as it is actually written in my post, does in fact provide a trivial definition of "random" becasue it makes everything random by definition. It should actually read (as as it was actually written is rocketdodger's preceding post) "random, but biased to the point of being deterministic". That is, by definition, a contradictory statement at least if the "random" and "deterministic" are defined as the are in probability theory, because "random" is defined as "having strictly more than one outcome for a given set of initial conditions" whereas "deterministic" is defined as "having only one outcome for a given set of initial conditions". As such, saying "evolution is random" is neither a trivial statement nor is it completely unhelpful in describing the process as saying "evolution is a noun".
 
I understand the mathematical abstraction, but how does it relate to reality ?


It is reality.


As an undergraduate when I learned this stuff, I came across an explanation that described it perfectly. The universe is broken, Eventually, the universe repairman will fix it, and the electron will only go through one slit at a time.:)


In all seriousness, though, it seems like particles ought to "really" be at a "place", but the evidence is that they are not.
 
I understand the mathematical abstraction, but how does it relate to reality ?

It's the best description of reality we have. It has been tested to 12 significant figures in several different ways, far more precisely than any other theory in the history of science. It explains everything from metal to the sun to the existence of galaxies. The computer you're reading this on could never have been built without it. And, because of Bell's theorem, any theory which might have seemed more complete is inconsistent and wrong.

Beyond that, no one can say.

I don't understand that.

Well, it's not easy to understand. In fact I don't think the full implications are really understood by anyone to this day. But no one promised us the universe would be easy to understand, did they?
 
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Actually, I have addressed the views with which I disagree. You just don't like my responses, because they are not of the form: "Oh, now I see the light. Of course evolution by natural selection is non-random. I admit that saying that saying that evolution by natural selection is random is a stupid and deliberately confusing creationist straw man. Thank you, skeptigirl, for your clear explanation and presentation of copious evidence."

Is there any evidence that I could present to convince that evolution by natural selection is random by the nontrivial definition "[o]f or relating to a type of circumstance or event that is described by a probability distribution"?
No, you have not addressed more than a tiny fraction of what I posted. Perhaps your ability to discuss concepts is inhibited by your fixation on the one single aspect of evolution. You can't see the forest for the trees.

If one determines what one takes from a random pool the randomness is left behind in the pool, the thing coming out is nonrandom. You have not addressed this at all.

Nor have you addressed the papers including the one in the OP which describe nonrandom forces that impact the supposedly random genetic mutations. Not only are the mutation rates increased and decreased, but very specific segments of DNA are targeted. It's akin to saying, I need a new coat, bring me several and I'll pick one out.

Nor have you addressed my complaint that your model is a poor choice to apply to the overall theory of evolution. It has very poor predictive applications to the overall theory. It has a limited use for looking at a single component of evolutionary processes. In no way is it a comprehensive model which applies to evolution.

But then, why should I be surprised? You are as articulett describes, unable to consider what the discussion is actually about no matter how many different ways the concepts are put forth.
 
skeptigirl-

Do you ever check your citations to see if they are claiming that evolution by natural selection is not random because it is biased to a certain outcome?

This is the reason the article in the OP said evolution by natural selection is deterministic and the reason why I disagree with the statement in the article that it is deterministic. Such a definition of random is inconsistent with the vast majority of phenomena that we describe with random variables and probability distributions, therefore causing a strange, confusing, and contradictory notion of a deterministic random variable. The only truly consistent and rigorous definition is "[o]f or relating to a type of circumstance or event that is described by a probability distribution" because each of the key terms (i.e., "event" and "probability distribution") is defined in a very specific and unambiguous way in probability theory, a fact that you would know if you bothered to pick and scan any probability theory textbook.
You have not responded to my posts, my citations, or the concepts I discussed. You haven't even responded to the specific quotations I pulled from your citations.

Yet I responded to what you posted in detail and including looking at your citations in detail. Admit it mijo, you aren't even reading people's posts. You skim a sentence or two and repeat your same arguments.
 
No, you have not addressed more than a tiny fraction of what I posted. Perhaps your ability to discuss concepts is inhibited by your fixation on the one single aspect of evolution. You can't see the forest for the trees.

If one determines what one takes from a random pool the randomness is left behind in the pool, the thing coming out is nonrandom. You have not addressed this at all.

Nor have you addressed the papers including the one in the OP which describe nonrandom forces that impact the supposedly random genetic mutations. Not only are the mutation rates increased and decreased, but very specific segments of DNA are targeted. It's akin to saying, I need a new coat, bring me several and I'll pick one out.

Nor have you addressed my complaint that your model is a poor choice to apply to the overall theory of evolution. It has very poor predictive applications to the overall theory. It has a limited use for looking at a single component of evolutionary processes. In no way is it a comprehensive model which applies to evolution.

But then, why should I be surprised? You are as articulett describes, unable to consider what the discussion is actually about no matter how many different ways the concepts are put forth.

Your supposed refutations are based a different definition of "random" than the one I am using. I understand that evolution is not random by whichever happens to suit your argument at the moment, but such definition are not consistent with things mathematicians call random.
 
You have not responded to my posts, my citations, or the concepts I discussed. You haven't even responded to the specific quotations I pulled from your citations.

Yet I responded to what you posted in detail and including looking at your citations in detail. Admit it mijo, you aren't even reading people's posts. You skim a sentence or two and repeat your same arguments.

I have responded to your posts; you just didn't like my responses, because I continued to disagree with you.

And yes I do read your posts fully, but so far I have not seen any new information*. You, like articulett before you in What evidence is there for evolution being non-random?, continue to insist that evolution is non-random because it is "biased", "causal", "constrained", "directional", or "non-representative of actual evolutionary processes".

*Meadmaker, Walter Wayne, and jimbob feel free to correct me in my assessment of skeptigirl's arguments,as I can be assured that she take this post as further evidence that I do not read her posts and use that as an excuse not to provide evidence that she has argued any differently than articulett in What evidence is there for evolution being non-random?.
 
But then, why should I be surprised? You are as articulett describes, unable to consider what the discussion is actually about no matter how many different ways the concepts are put forth.

What can you do but laugh... and interject that "evolution is nonrandom" into a thread every once in a while so he can come and lecture to everyone how it really is because "random is anything that can be described with a probability distribution..." and his Behesque buddies can follow suit and say more of nothing as they imagine themselves to be clearer than actual peer reviewed scientists and people who teach the concept of evolution to others?

It doesn't matter how many people tell them that the articles and scientists and everyone else is being much more descriptive and informative than them--in their head they are making sense even if everyone else only hears gobbledy gook.

Once you find the core belief people are trying to protect, it's so easy to get them in a Kleinman loop, because they have to have the last word to prove to themselves in their head that they are making as much sense as they've convinced themselves they are. What they avoid hearing is as telling as what they say. I almost fell out of my chair when I read his example quote-- but then I realized he was quoting the thing he'd never say... and revealing his "need" to call evolution "random" no matter how inane he sounds. Consider it a compliment to be insulted by him--it's the way he keeps his "evolution is random" meme safe. :p
 
But the problem is that the actual research did not say "Evolution is random", or even "Evolution is stochastic." They were looking specifically at developmental systems drift. There has been a debate going on within the biological community about how traits change. Specifically, the role of "genetic drift".

"Genetic drift" refers to evolution (i.e. genotype and phenotype changes in a population) in the absence of selection pressure.
Yes, this is what I said. The evidence I see which you for some reason do not is in the significance of random and determined in the end product. The organisms which evolve are not random. The genetic mutations which are a small piece of the process are not the process. While I understand the argument you are making about the definition of random, you are not understanding the argument I (and many others) am making about the significance of the randomness to the process.

Look at a hypothetical example. Suppose you have a bucket of 10 balls and 10 blocks, all different colors. One child pulls out 5 balls and another child pulls out 5 the blocks. The colors are random but the objects are not. So is that a random process? Big deal, they randomly selected the objects and technically they got random colored objects. Who cares? They determined which objects they wanted, that was not random. So you are arguing there is a random component therefore it is a random process. You want to clarify that into, it depends on what you are looking at. Up to there, we agree.

But here's the problem. You and in this case, mijo, continue to use numbers or mutations in your mental models as if all the qualities we are talking about here are equal. Both of you ignored my example of random time but determined selection criteria. The point is, it is not a matter of what you are looking at whether it is a random process or not. It is a matter of which of the processes best represents the whole. You claim it is ideology. It is not ideology, it is a description of the whole over a description of a single part.

Biologists noted change in species over time, with no obvious advantage for the species as a result of that change. Why did that happen? Some people said that these changes occurred because there was some unrecognized selection pressure. Without that pressure, there would be a conservative force that would keep the population stable. Others reasoned that with no selection pressure, there might be random changes in the population to a trait that was no better, but no worse, than the previous state.

The biologists from the OP figured out a way to test the two theories. These nematodes gave them a way to track the changes. If the changes in the population were random, not the result of selection, the traits involved would go sometimes this way and sometimes that way, and sometimes reverse direction, because there was no real advantage for one direction or the other. If the changes provided an advantage, the direction of change would be consistent, as things got a little bit better at each step.

It turns out that most, but not all, of those changes went in a single direction. Developmental systems drift occurs primarily as a result of selection pressure.
Did you then not look at the additional citations I posted showing one determined and random trait evolving in the cave fish? There was no selection pressure on one component of the no longer needed eye. Since it was no longer being actively selected, it disappeared purely by passive random genetic drift. On the other hand, the retina which was biologically expensive to the fish, disappeared through active selection.

The point of that study and of the debate you speak of (which is exactly what I have been posting about) is that genetic drift is not the main process of change the research is revealing.

So does that mean that "evolution is not random?" Well, again, you have to define your terms. In their case, they defined random as not favoring one direction or the other for development of a particular trait. They defined evolution as changes to a trait. Using those terms, "evolution" is not "random". (And actually, they never used the word random, and they never claimed to define evolution. They said stochastic, and they specified evolution of a trait.)

I'm not sure that this is a real paradigm shift at all. I think it's a return to a paradigm that is as old as Darwin. It did challenge a potential new paradigm that said there were other forces besides natural selection that were responsible for changing species' characteristics. This paper says that "genetic drift" is not a significant role.

(Aside: We speak of "natural selection" as a "force" or say it "drives" evolution. We can't help ourselves. We have to talk about causes, and things that do things, but it is an illusion. Natural selection isn't a force, it's a consequence.)
And here is where the paradigm shift is occurring. Because when the mechanisms of natural selection are more and more revealed, it turns out there actually are active forces involved.

More accurately, I think the two should be given different weight depending on what you are describing. Either can lead to misunderstanding of the process. I think insistence on saying that one or the other is "better" either means you are fixated on one aspect, or there's some sort of psychological or ideological bias against the other.
Better is the adjective I am applying to description of evolution. You need the context. I am not fixated on one aspect and neither is Dawkins. Rather the evidence leans heavily in this direction.

Just look at the mechanisms by which microorganisms acquire anti-infective resistance. Whole genes providing anti-infective resistance are spread out among organisms and across species. This is not a matter of sharing genetic soup with random acquisitions. It is an active process of acquiring adaptation. Look at these papers.

High-frequency conjugative transfer of antibiotic resistance genes to Yersinia pestis in the flea midgut

Multidrug Resistance in Yersinia pestis Mediated by a Transferable Plasmid
Streptomycin, chloramphenicol, and tetracycline are used to treat plague, and tetracycline and sulfonamides are recommended for prophylaxis.4 Classically, Y. pestis isolates are uniformly susceptible to the antibiotics active against gram-negative bacteria.5,6,7

We report high-level resistance to multiple antibiotics, including all the drugs recommended for plague prophylaxis and therapy, in a clinical isolate of Y. pestis. The resistance genes were carried by a plasmid that could conjugate to other Y. pestis isolates. This report should serve as a warning of the risk of the spread of resistance in Y. pestis, a species previously considered universally susceptible to antibiotics
That is not random mutation!

CRISPR elements in Yersinia pestis acquire new repeats by preferential uptake of bacteriophage DNA, and provide additional tools for evolutionary studies
We have found in the published sequence data additional evidence for a mechanism by which CRISPRs could acquire phage DNA. Hoe et al. (1999)Down described spacer sequences and organization in a CRISPR of Streptococcus pyogenes. Only one of the five sequenced S. pyogenes genomes, MIGAS, possesses a CRISPR. We performed a BLAST search with the S. pyogenes spacer sequences against the five sequenced genomes and found that seven out of the nine spacers described correspond to a phage-associated sequence, present in at least one of the genomes except that of MIGAS. Phage DNA constitutes up to 12·4 % of the S. pyogenes genome (Beres et al., 2002Down) and is involved in recombination and horizontal transfer of new genes. There may be, in the case of strain MIGAS, a relationship between the presence of a CRISPR and the lack of a particular prophage. One possible explanation for that finding could be that CRISPRs are structures able to take up pieces of foreign DNA as part of a defence mechanism. In this view, it is tempting to further speculate that CRISPRs may represent a memory of past ‘genetic aggressions’. The fact that most of the spacers described in other bacteria have no homologue in the databases could still be explained by such a phage origin, as only a very small number of the existing bacteriophages have so far been sequenced.

The way in which the CRISPR loci appear to evolve in Y. pestis, and the frequency at which they acquire new motifs, at least within the Orientalis group of strains, are such that these loci may provide powerful and easy-to-use phylogenetic tools in complement to MLVA. It may be that the picking up of new spacers is not occurring at a uniform rate across the Y. pestis species, but rather that some unknown conditions are able to trigger an increased activity.
Random processes take on a smaller and smaller role.
 
Your supposed refutations are based a different definition of "random" than the one I am using. I understand that evolution is not random by whichever happens to suit your argument at the moment, but such definition are not consistent with things mathematicians call random.
Missed it again. Not my argument at the moment, rather it is your description of a part you claim describes the whole.
 
Yet another potentially interesting and productive thread devolves into arguments about some kind of post-modern, quasi-deconstructionist obscurantist tripe by Mijo.
 
You did not reply to this post, mijo, except to repeat yourself as if I had posted nothing and in the 2 posts following your reply you did not comment at all.

Try again. Or should I suppose you can't?
 
Yet another potentially interesting and productive thread devolves into arguments about some kind of post-modern, quasi-deconstructionist obscurantist tripe by Mijo.
Read around the guy. If I wasn't finding the topic interesting I wouldn't be here.

Though it does get annoying replying to someone who doesn't read your posts. He says he did but his replies tell another story.
 
Meadmaker will not understand either. He has a particular need as well. Mijo's long thread is evident. He pretends that it's equally wrong or right or informative to call evolution random and nothing will make him change. All of his posts on the subject boil down to that. As much as Mijo wants to say "evolution is random", Meadmaker just want to make sure nobody says it's "non random". He thinks he's being clearer than Dawkins or the science article although only people of a certain ilk seem to agree. It sounds like he's saying something, but he's not. He's just trying to convince himself that Mijo isn't "wrong" and, if so, it's "as wrong" to call evolution nonrandom (even though scientists often do-- and no one, but creationists seem insistent on calling it random--while pretending that it's descriptive or "academically rigorous" or something...)

I guarantee, he will not cede from this position. ;) That's the core "meme" he needs to protect. He thinks he's clearer than the article writers, you see... and Dawkins. I don't know where he picked up this imagined expertise, but all of those of that ilk seem to have it.
 
Of course with total knowledge technically randomness would be deterministic...
This is incorrect. Jimbob got it right when he answered you:

The best evidence is that quantum events are random, the particle doesn't "know" where it is either. Identical systems with identical inputs would not always give the same output.
I bolded the most important statement, because you seem to have missed it. Maybe you just don't believe it. I know it sounds very strange, but what he said there is correct.

Perhaps I should clarify one thing. The time evolution of the mathematical representation of the state of the physical system is completely deterministic, but the result will not tell us what we're going to observe. It only tells us probabilities of different possibilities.

Total knowledge would have to include knowledge of what the output is otherwise it is less than total.
Again, that's not how quantum mechanics work. The idea that if we only had total knowledge, we would in principle be able to predict the outcome, has been proven false by experiments.
 

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