Industrial grade doubt and what to do with it.
I'm caught up now, and I retract the snarky bit at the end of the last post. I'm still impressed by the quality of most exchanges here and think many deserve full discussion in a separate thread.
I'm going to bullet issues in hopes of keeping this brief enough to be coherent.
Semantics:
A number of posters throw this around like a swear word. I'd like to remind you that the OP is closely related to the
freaking philosophy of knowledge. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect careful distinctions. I agree that economy and other considerations (hidden equivalences etc.) require minimizing exotic definitions.
Gaps:
I think I introduced some confusion earlier by using this to refer to both (1) the acknowledged limits of science/naturalism, and (2) gaps in the knowledge we’ve actually accumulated to date.
(1)
Limits
Godless Geeks and other advocates acknowledge that science/naturalism is based on a particular set of assumptions justified primarily by their usefulness. It’s powerful - it allows us to determine what is provably the best guess about the nature of particular facets of the world, but it’s also limited - ultimately, it’s only a model. That is why e.g. we are interested, but not concerned that quantum physics is currently irreconcilable with relativity.
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(2)
Terra Incognita
More importantly, we simply don’t yet know very much about issues of central importance to living here. I number consciousness, time, identity, community and economics among the critical issues. As far as we know, all these are subject to scientific investigation, we just don’t have answers yet.
Yes, we’ve made progress in a number of these areas. There is a little renaissance in both economics and neuroscience going on right now. Nonetheless, the results are far from complete.
SkG, I believe in one of you’re posts, you suggested that, with regard to behavior, our knowledge of the mechanics far outweighed our ignorance. I don’t think that’s true. I think it’s telling that cognitive behavioral therapy, as far as I know the only psych. treatment method with statistically significant results, was originally proposed as a dummy routine for testing purposes.
(3)
Why it matters
A.
Limits
One conclusion I draw is that an alternative set of assumptions about the real world could likewise be justified by utility, especially when the map provided by science is incomplete. The systems don’t have to be consistent – that’s an axiom of naturalism after all. You just need to know who wins in a dispute.
B.
Terra Incognita
It isn’t just a subjective need to feel in control. We have to make decisions. I claim that science's silence on critical topics is something that must be explicitly address.
One common way to make decisions in areas where science provides no certain guidance is to extrapolate/project forward our current empirical knowledge forward.
I do this all the time myself . You may believe that this will always produce better results than banking on god beliefs you count as arbitrary. (I think there are verifiable reasons to believe they aren’t). Nothing in the theory guarantees this, however.
Projecting forward is a great way to come up with hypotheses for further investigation. I argue that it is a second best way to make decisions.
[FONT="][2][/FONT] It is truly an arbitrary guess in the fullest sense and you will often be wrong.
If you play straight naturalism, you then have to take responsibility for e.g. the movement to make all children right-handed, social darwinism, and, for real offensiveness, the modern, IQ based eugenics movement at least in the sense that these guesses were as reasonable as any other's based on the state of the art at the time.
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I don’t think reasonable people really do this. I suspect that you and others here have an un-validated (though clearly not unexamined) catalogue of beliefs about how the world works that you check the projected conclusions against. From earlier posts, I hear evolutionary mechanics, and emergent properties as an alternative basis for moral beliefs. This warrants a separate thread. I can only argue here that both are plausible, but I don’t believe either is complete. In any event, not all the "gap" decisions are strictly moral, some involve resource allocation, guesses about the outcome of unknowable events, e.g. undertaking a foreign war.
To be as clear as possible, I’m not calling this hypocrisy or “faith”, I’m arguing for the existence of a class of mental objects other than “scientific truth” and “woo”. This special class includes all beliefs that appear to offer a net benefit and excludes conclusions that conflict with our better verified knowledge.
Distinguishing between these beliefs is a matter of judgment. Nothing guarantees you’ll get it right, but with time tested god beliefs, you at least have a little more observable data about the consequences to draw on.
[FONT="][4][/FONT] Moreover, in some cases, god beliefs provide a way of validating the process, when the end is ultimately unknowable.
This post is already far too long. Worse still, it is also only a piece of an argument related to the OP (there is a class of claims that rationally deserve special treatment, my religious beliefs are members of that class) I think before I go any further, it might make some sense to let people weigh in with objections. While theose pile up, I’ll try for question two. Hopefully I can manage to be briefer.
[FONT="][1][/FONT] I’ve read Brian Greene’s String Theory books, at least in the sense of looking at each page in sequence and moving my lips. Epistemological point remains.
[FONT="][2][/FONT] One area I deal with all the time is the ‘law & economics” movement shepherded by the University of Chicago law school. Basically, it takes the plausible-but-underdeveloped hypothesis that law at bottom is nothing more than a society wide attempt to maximize utilitarian value to be the single maxim for court decisions. Sounds charmingly rational, especially when delivered by its chief apostle, the marvelously memphistelian Judge Posner (I once heard him declare that lawyers should be forbidden to use the word “fair”.) In reality, very few specific balances and trade-offs can be validated in any way. (It works best in areas originally formulated along these lines, e.g. anti-trust law. I think it is outrageously abused in the context of intellectual property).
[FONT="][3][/FONT] forum debate re: origins is interesting, but not relevant at this point. Goes to cost/benefits later.
[FONT="][4][/FONT] It’s fair to ask what benefits I see in using my flavor of theism as a model. I can take a stab at this question, but it will have to be in another post.