With the exception of witches (which was not on your original list and which do exist, whether or not they have any supernatural powers is another issue), those are not widely held beliefs in the present day.
Semantic games are cute when a three year old plays them, not so much when you're talking to an adult.
When I mentioned witches, and especially given the context of this discussion, which of the following did you think I was talking about?
Or do you think it's more likely that I was pointing out that many sane people believe that there are people who practise witchcraft? Note - I mean the supernatural witchcraft, and not the Swedish band.
So, Beth, is it reasonable to believe in witches?
Also, since when does a belief have to be held in the present day for it to be considered and evaluated? Is the twenty-first century a prerequisite for sanity?
And who says that people don't believe in vampires in the present day?
BBC NEWS said:
...residents have been taking the law into their own hands, killing one man thought to be a human vampire and badly injuring three others.
What about other 'vampiric' creatures? Is it reasonable to believe in the Chupacabra?
This part of the list was for things that make specific claims which can be, and have been, tested. Does it prove definitely for all time and in all places that such things are not real? No. But we do have objective evidence that they don't work when tested. You can, by the way, support the non-existance of certain specific gods with similar evidence. But we have been discussing skeptics who believe in gods that are untestable. So I think it is reasonable to separate out these types of claims.
And so we end up at the old fallback - sure, you can say that
some things don't exist. But so long as the belief is untestable, well, you have no way of knowing for sure, do you? Well, no, I can't know for sure, no more than I can know
anything for sure. But if there is no way to know, how does one arrive at the belief in the first place? And more importantly - what does untestable actually mean? Specifically, what does an untestable claim tell us about a world in which the claim is true, and a world in which the claim is false?
I know the answer to this one, and I bet a number of other people here do too, but I want you to be the one to say this because it's important. To repeat:
What does an untestable claim tell us about a world in which the claim is true, and a world in which the claim is false?
Oh dear. My apologies. I was thought that because you were addressing my posts, you were talking to me. Personally, I think anyone who writes for lurkers is delusional. What objective proof do you have for their existance? Isn't your position that the skeptic must take as the null hypothesis the non-existance of entities that are not perceivable to us in any fashion? Sure, lurkers might exist, but why believe in something who's existance makes no noticable difference whether it exists or not?
orly?
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums said:
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This doesn't indicate that testimonial evidence is never better than a blind guess, though it's a long article and I did not read it thoroughly. Certainly, there are situations where it is no better, but I don't think nor does your link prove that testimonial evidence is never better than blind chance.
That's not what that evidence was for though - that evidence was in regards to the unreliability of witness testimony. Not only that, but I didn't say that it was
never better than blind chance - that is only applicable when we are discussing the existence of an object.
Ah, so we agree that testimonial evidence can be better than blind chance in some situations?
Yes - and your posts are going to be twice as long if you repeat everything I write. To state this again so that there's no confusion as to what we are agreeing on: Anecdotal evidence is better than chance if we are discussing the properties of a known object. It is not better than chance if we are discussing the existence of an object. Regardless of whether or not it is better than chance when we are discussing the properties of an object, anecdotal evidence is still
incredibly unreliable, to the point of being useless in most situations. The more testimonies there are that agree on the properties of an object that is known to exist, the more likely it is that such testimonies accurately reflect reality.
This should hardly need to be said, but when we are discussing the
existence of god, we are discussing the
existence of an object, and anecdotal evidence is entirely useless in drawing a conclusion.
Now you are making a subjective assessment of the value of anecdotal evidence in discussing the perception of the existance of non-material things. Certainly, you have a valid point. My point is that since your assessment is subjective it's reasonable to expect that other people will assess such evidence differently and come to different conclusions.
Except it's not a subjective assessment. Anecdotal evidence is known to be unreliable - this has been demonstrated time and time again, and modern science has evolved a system for screening out subjective assessments precisely because of this. If you want to claim that a class of objects is for some reason exempt from this anecdotal unreliability, it is up to you to provide justification for the exemption. Otherwise you're just engaging in the same run-of-the-mill special pleading as homeopaths and other quack practitioners.
This is what I mean by arrogance. I'm not saying your assessment is wrong, only that it is subjective and other people can hold different opinions about it.
Except I'm not making a subjective assessment. The reliability of anecdotal evidence has been
objectively shown to be unreliable. This isn't about my feelings, it's about the evidence - if you're going to dispute the evidence, you're going to have to justify your opinion.
Oh, they are data. They aren't very good data for analysis purposes and they certainly aren't proof. I agree that anecdotes are weak evidence. But even such weak evidence for those things is still better that the evidence for the IPU.
Anecdotes are data? How exactly does one measure or observe an anecdote?
It may be that you don't know what data means in a scientific context, and so are equivocating with the 'data' used in general language, which is considered a synonym for 'information'. To see what is considered a
broad definition of data, take a look at page eight of
this report:
Using Data In Undergraduate Science Classrooms said:
“Using data in the classroom is any learning process that uses observations defined in the most general sense as a fundamental component to the learning enterprise in a way that a) supports student inquiry and participation in the scientific method, b) supports effective evaluation of data uncertainties and applicability, and c) improves students’ quantitative and critical thinking skills.
The observations involved could be raw or derivative data streams that have been collected by students or professionals or simulated data derived from models.”
Remember that this is a broad definition of data that aims to include what would be considered data in many different fields of science - from astronomy to zoology and all that lies between - and even with a broad definition anecdotes still do not classify as data.
I don't agree that a skeptic is required use non-existance as the null hypothesis. I think all a skeptic is required to do is acknowledge that when the null hypothesis is not rejected, that does not imply that it is true.
If you set the null hypothesis to be that no gods exist and you fail to reject the null, that does not imply that no gods exist. If you set the null hypothesis to be that god exists and fail to reject it, that doesn't imply god exists.
I disagree - a skeptic should apply Occam's razor. Given that interventionist gods can be tested for (and have failed miserably when tests have been run), that leaves us with an untestable, unfalsifiable god who does nothing and resides nowhere in the universe. Application of Occam's razor tells us that non-belief in god (not multiplying entities beyond necessity) is the preferred hypothesis.
Allowing the belief of entities or phenomenon to be called reasonable only on the basis that they have no explanatory power (and therefore cannot be tested for) is ludicrous and unparsimonious - it means that we may safely believe in unicorn riding goblins, so long as we posit that they are invisible, that they live in a biosphere on Jupiter hidden from our view, or some other rationalisation that places them outside of the possibility of scientific testing (at least for our current ability to test).
That isn't arrogance. It's the claim that your position is the only reasonable one that is arrogant. See above.
It is the only reasonable one for a skeptic to hold because it is the only position that can be reached through proper application of skepticism. That's not arrogance, that's
fact, and you have yet to show otherwise - your entire argument up to this point stands as a shining example of why this is so, unless you redefine skepticism so that anecdotes, special pleading and appeals to authority are considered good arguments and evidence.
I'm not suggesting that one should take the middle ground, I'm only suggesting that it exists.
Well, in that case I don't really care. Proving that a human opinion exists is as easy as holding that opinion, or providing someone who does. If that is
really all you've been arguing, then you haven't been doing a very good job at it, because most of your arguments are irrelevant. They are, however, quite relevant if you are arguing for that one should hold either the middle ground or the theistic position - which makes me suspect that perhaps this new argument is a fallback position in the absence of a counter-argument.
Also, if that isn't your position, what position
are you arguing for?
Really? That's interesting, because I think that a fairly accurate description of your reaction to my examples of the usefulness of anecdotal data.
Oh really? Mind giving us the link to these 'examples of the usefulness of anecdotal data'? I'm assuming of course that your examples discuss all the discoveries that have been made through evaluation and analysis of anecdotal evidence? And that they address the issues raised about the unreliability of witness testimony addressed in the studies I linked you to? How about showing me all the handwaving I engaged in?
You'll notice that the above are a series of rhetorical questions. I did that so that you'd be able to find some examples of me using rhetoric - unfortunately the examples still can't be classified as 'meaningless'.
Isn't that the one about making the answer you are defending an assumption in your response? You know, like assuming god doesn't exist and then assuming people who talk to god and get answers are delusional because god does not exist and therefore, their testimony regarding the existance of god is invalid because they are delusional? But perhaps I'm thinking of the wrong fallacy. Is that the one you meant?
Nice strawman argument. Does it come in pink?
First, for the purposes of the argument you are discussing, I didn't assume that god doesn't exist. In fact, that was the very question we were trying to answer.
Second, as I didn't assume that god doesn't exist, I also didn't assume that people who claim to have talked to and get answers from god are delusional. If you think I'm lying, kindly provide evidence that I did assume that these people are delusional.
You seem to need things spelled out for you, and it's really starting to get on my nerves. I'm inclined to believe that you know that what you're saying is incorrect and not reflective of reality, but that you're hoping that I'll just get sick of arguing with you and let the strawman version stand.
I won't.
To spell it out, the question we were trying to answer was, "Does god exist?"
The evidence you produced was anecdotal testimony by people who claim to have experienced god.
If god doesn't exist, these people have trouble separating fantasy from reality.
If god does exist, it doesn't speak to the actual experiences these people had or claim to have had - while it means that it is
possible that they experienced god, it is also possible that they are delusional, or that they have misinterpreted the experience, or even (shock!) that they are lying.
Because of this, the anecdotal evidence is worthless.
Now, you claim that the people who claim to have these experiences are honest, not mistaken in their conclusions, and not delusional and that we should therefore accept their testimony.
This assumes the answer to the very question we started out investigating - that god exists!
That is why
you are begging the question here, not me.
Do you understand now?