Time to kick Iran

Jesus, what is the Argument here? That it's outrageous to kill 3000 people but fine to kill ABOUT XXX,XXX citizens???

My point simply is that in case if Iraq - every casualty as a result of the WMD-Propaganda, is manslaughter and should be prosecuted this way - instead whining about Gonzales, White House Prostitute-Affairs or Libby.


Nobody said it was "fine" to kill XXX,XXX citizens. But if you follow the thread, one of the points that I (and other posters) have said is that you can't just look at the XXX,XXX citizens killed with the assumption that noboyd would have died had the invasion not occured. What you have to do is look at the potential casulties that Saddam would have inflicted on his own people had he remained in power. From the looks of things, that number would appear to be at least equal to (or possibly greater than) the number of deaths that have happened since the invasion.
 
You know quite a lot, and you know nothing..
I will never believe that the intervention in Rwanda was held back for logistic problems.
That is an excuse.
Nor did I say it was. A common presumption, post hoc, that an intervention by a Peace Enforcement operation would have prevented the brewing civil war consistently ignores the requirements to sustain such a force. The humanitarian mission that came along after the fighting had for the most part stopped, after Kagame and his faction had won, was on austere footing until the logistic base to support it had time to grow. The refugee support operations in and along the Congo border did not grow up over night, and could not have been set up in the middle of a fight. They had to wait until the fighting stopped.

That was relief, not Peace Enforcement, nor even Peace Keeping. The original UN Peace Keepping Operation was abandoned for a variety of reasons, not just one, though the problem of the logistics was a practical problem facing anyone trying to augment it: to either beef up a force, or sustain one that would be strong enough to get in between the factions and stop/prevent a war that had been brewing for some years.

Another novice mistake, and thanks, Matteo, for trying once again to look at a problem through the lens of a single variable.

If you want to argue that the over riding lack of intervention in Rwanda was a lack of political will/indifference/disbelief that mass slaughter would occur, sure, that was certainly a multinational political problem. That does not change the fact that it is far easier to intervene/help/prevent in nation states that are relatively easier to get to -- see my pointing to the small coastal states in West Africa and the relative ease of aid and NEO operations -- than in remote, hard to get to places, like Rwanda. The problem of timely action is a combination of a political decision, and the sheer physical problem of getting people and things, the right people and things, into a conflict zone and sustaining the operation.

DR
 
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Posting numbers is pointless if they come from a non-reputable source.
I agree with you.
The Washington Post is just a bunch of Communists..
Yes, that number was repoted in the Post. Sure it was also published in a hundred other newspapers and TV stations as well. But the fact is, it initially came from one source (i.e. the newspapers were not doing their own studies).

But, before publishing them, they validate them, uh?
No, they do not.
Second, you have the site www.iraqbodycount.com which, as I say, validates the hypotesis of 100000+ deaths..
Uhhh.. no. I think you're getting a little confused over dates and numbers...

Just to give you a time line...

- John Hoskins did a study (published in lancet) in 2004 that claimed 100,000 deaths. At that time, Iraq body count did not 'validate' that number; they actually had a number that was quite a bit lower (can't remember the exact figure, but it was in the 20-30k range). Furthermore, the number of 100,000 was contradicted by similar studies done by the U.N.
- Claiming that the current number listed in Iraq body count validates the 2004 estimate of 100,000 is wrong becase they are taken from different time periods
- The more recent survey (from 2006) from John Hoskins uses the same flawed methodology as their first survey to reach the count of 655,000. It is THAT number that you have to compare Iraq body count with.

There are, to my knowledge, no other studies that give values anywhere near the figures given in the John Hoskins/Lancet studies, despite your earlier claims that their figures were verified by "other researchers".

Yes we did, by pointing out several flaws with the study, and by referring to other studies which provided contradictory data.

But, your conclusions were not posted in the Post, or in any other newspaper.
Can not see why..
Why?
Because newspapers often get stories involving science and statisics wrong. And because of the old saying "if it bleeds it leads". Sensationalistic stories get more press because they bring in more readers.

You can not expect to have a strategy before knowing exactly what the problem is. To whom an I speaking to?
I told you exactly what the problem is... Iraq is positioning military targets next to civilian targets, so that any 'precision' bombing, regardless of how careful, will result in the deaths of innocents.

Would you accept those deaths as the cost of handling Saddam? (Something tells me that if the U.S. did try such precision bombing, you'd be one of the first ones complaining about the U.S. killing innoncents.) Or would you leave those targets, thus encouraging Saddam to use even more civilian targets as human sheilds?

And since in other threads you seem to think that the invasion required U.N. approval, would you have a similar requirement for such precision attacks? Or would you consider it moralistic for the U.S. to engage in such military actions unilaterally? And if you say that U.N. approval is required, and it fails to act, are you going to accept the continued human rights abuses?

No, some (military targets) were placed next to power plants.
What about the others?
What about the others? Is it not enough that some civilians were used as human shields?

No, Germany took an action that you agreed with. That is not necessarly the same as being 'right'.
More right than the US?
No, they took an action that they felt was politically advantageous. Morality did not enter into this at all.


The estimates of 20,000 to 40,000 are based on an estimate of 500,000 to 1 million deaths caused under Saddam's regime.
With the help of the US..

The most parts of the deaths above could have been avoided if some nations ( US included ) did not sell any gun to Saddam.
But, you are too ideologically involved, to realize this..
Fine.... the U.S. supplied 1% of Iraq's conventional arms, so they should be responsible for 1% of its deaths. Saddam can be responsible for the other 99%.

As for 'other nations' not selling guns to Saddam... remember, most of his conventional arms came from communust countries, countries that the U.S. had abolutely no control over.


Yes... we have a decade of experience in Iraq, where military targets were bombed regularly, the U.N. regularly interveigned in Iraq's soverignty, yet human rights abuses continued.

Fortunately, now, since soon after the invasion, the human right situation has greatly improved..
Actually, it has... there is more free speech, more freedom of religion, more economic freedom in Iraq now than there was under Saddam. And the current death rate, although unfortunate, is not as bad as when Saddam was in power.

So please point to one area where people have less human rights now than under Saddam.

Of course, it is getting off topic... your original claim was that Saddam's abuses could have been stopped by precision military actions. I've already pointed out that a decade of such action did not stop such abuses. All you are trying to do is cloud the issue and avoid the fact that I've debunked your claim.

Perhaps you could be a bit more convincing if you actually came up with a plan that looks like it would work, rather than using the magical "There must be a better way" argument.
I have already written of various ways to deal with the problem.
No you haven't... In fact, whenever I pointed out specific problems with your 'plan', you've only argued that you "can't know strategy".

I do not think there has been over one million deaths after 1991
I never claimed there were. (There were some claims that that many people died due to sanctions, but I don't necessarily accept them.) But there were 10s of thousands of deaths, in large part due to direct killings. Those deaths were not stopped by continued U.S. and British attempts at stopping Saddam's abuses through low level military action like you were proposing..

But you're the one that said intervention in one case is somehow justified and intervention in another case is not. So where do you draw the line? 1 million dead? 2 million?
No.
No what? What type of answer is that?

I was not asking a 'yes/no' question... You brought up the issue of Rwanda and suggested that it was more worthy of intervention. You even mentioned the number of people killed. So, where is your justification? How do you measure when a case of human rights abuses is worthy of intervention and when a case is not?

Could the case be handled in a better way?
Maybe it could have, maybe it could not. If there was a better way, then I'd actually like to see an actual plan, not just the empty ideas that you put forward, where you avoid any hard questions.

Was the invasion of Iraq really necessary?
Why the US invaded Iran and not Rwanda?
Was the invasion of Rwanda necessary?

Sorry, but I do not recall you specifically addressing the possibility that the U.S. could have dealt with Saddam directly if Oil was the main reason for invasion.
No time to do search.
Anyway, I do not think the issue is very important.

By that, I assume you mean "I was wrong... I never did address that issue, now I want to hide the fact that I was wrong".
 
Jesus, what is the Argument here? That it's outrageous to kill 3000 people but fine to kill ABOUT XXX,XXX citizens???

My point simply is that in case if Iraq - every casualty as a result of the WMD-Propaganda, is manslaughter and should be prosecuted this way - instead whining about Gonzales, White House Prostitute-Affairs or Libby.

Oliver, you are welcome to pursue, find, and arrest each and every suicide bomber who blows up tens, at times over a hundred, of Iraqis with a tragically maddening frequency since August 2003.

I await your results.

Oh, wait. You can't. The suicide bombers are dead.

Next?

Oliver, you are welcome to arrest and charge the various Sunni and Shia militia members who kill one another, and have beendoing so over the past four years.

For manslaughter.

Let me know how you do.

I think you might want to grasp the concept of agency before you go any further.

If I am the mayor of Paris, France, and I cannot afford to keep a force of (let us say for an example) 7,000 police , but can only afford 6000, I have to lay off 1000. That does not make me an accessory to any murder that happens by a killer after those 1000 are laid off, no matter how loudly my political opponents yell that my laying off those 1000 police was the cause of the murder.

The culpable party is the murderer, not the mayor.

Got it?

DR
 
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Of course I got it - but your examples don't make sense.
Then you didn't get it.
I will gladly explain it to you in the "What is this war about anyway" thread if you wish to (see Rule11). :)
Riiiiiiiiiiight. I've got your rule 11 right here, pal. I also will send you a bill for breaking my irony meter. :p

In your post, the one I responded to with the observation on agency, you brought up, in a thread entitled Time To Kick Iran:
My point simply is that in case if Iraq - every casualty as a result of the WMD-Propaganda, is manslaughter and should be prosecuted this way - instead whining about Gonzales, White House Prostitute-Affairs or Libby.
Please go back to forum management and read what Darat wrote to you about the difference between OT and drift within a (15 page) thread.

The meaning of OT is lost on you, unless perhaps that for you, it means either Oliver Twit or Oliver, Troll.

DR
 
Wait one sec..

First of all, what about Saddam..

He did do criminal acts, did not he?

Secondly, you seem to forget that, George W. ( or Olmert ), could order the total desctruction of Iran tomorrow morning.
They are not doing that.
How can be sure that, Mr. A, if he gets a nuke, would not bomb Israel or the US?

Third, you say that Mr. A is not a criminal, but, please, look at the human rights situation in Iran..
There is a difference between these and Bush.

Saddam, Ahmadinejad and others can be contained.

U.N. did that to Saddam after 1992, and is doing it to Ahmadinejad now.

Bush cannot be contained.

Republican Tancredo -of the bombing the Mecca fame- if in power in U.S., cannot be contained.

More force needs to be applied by U.N. against Bush, Tancredo.
 
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Bush cannot be contained.
That was truer when both houses of Congress was GOP that it is now. See also, Rove is jumping ship.
Republican Tancredo -of the bombing the Mecca fame- if in power in U.S., cannot be contained.
Yes, he can be, if the Congress is in the other party. That puts a brake on some of his freedom of action.
More force needs to be applied by U.N. against Bush, Tancredo.
The problem with that idea is that the UN, and specifically the UNSC, as the UN's sole force applying element, has an American vote and veto, which effectively renders "UN Force" application to the US moot, regardless of who is president.

What might work as "force applying" to any US president, be it Bush, Tancredo, Obama, whoever, is the emergence of another superpower with both the economy and the will to act as a rival the way the USSR was a rival.

Two choices in the near future: the EU and Russia form a bloc, or China stands up.

Until then, no force applying body is available.

On a different note, Tancredo is no threat to become president, don't worry about him.

DR
 
I agree with this:
That was truer when both houses of Congress was GOP that it is now. See also, Rove is jumping ship.

Yes, he can be, if the Congress is in the other party. That puts a brake on some of his freedom of action.

The problem with that idea is that the UN, and specifically the UNSC, as the UN's sole force applying element, has an American vote and veto, which effectively renders "UN Force" application to the US moot, regardless of who is president.

What might work as "force applying" to any US president, be it Bush, Tancredo, Obama, whoever, is the emergence of another superpower with both the economy and the will to act as a rival the way the USSR was a rival.

Two choices in the near future: the EU and Russia form a bloc, or China stands up.

Until then, no force applying body is available.

On a different note, Tancredo is no threat to become president, don't worry about him.

DR
with some amendments.

They are:

.) Bush is being contained by Congress, too late for thousands who died;

.) I believe in the importance of U.N. to reign above any superpower;
there was such a speech in 2003 by the Prime Minister of Sweden.
 
What might work as "force applying" to any US president, be it Bush, Tancredo, Obama, whoever, is the emergence of another superpower with both the economy and the will to act as a rival the way the USSR was a rival.

I hope you don't think that would be a good thing since the USSR did not act very nice ... even to its own people.
 
Actually, whether support for Saddam was trully a 'bad act' is debatable. Iran was (at the time) considered a greater threat. Its possible that they should have stayed out of the situation, or supported Iraq, but not given as much aid.
There was very little aid given to Saddam by the US. The USSR and France provided the lions share of his military hardware.
 
No, they do not.

They do.
That is how journalism works

Uhhh.. no. I think you're getting a little confused over dates and numbers...

Just to give you a time line...

- John Hoskins did a study (published in lancet) in 2004 that claimed 100,000 deaths. At that time, Iraq body count did not 'validate' that number; they actually had a number that was quite a bit lower (can't remember the exact figure, but it was in the 20-30k range). Furthermore, the number of 100,000 was contradicted by similar studies done by the U.N.
- Claiming that the current number listed in Iraq body count validates the 2004 estimate of 100,000 is wrong becase they are taken from different time periods
- The more recent survey (from 2006) from John Hoskins uses the same flawed methodology as their first survey to reach the count of 655,000. It is THAT number that you have to compare Iraq body count with.

There are, to my knowledge, no other studies that give values anywhere near the figures given in the John Hoskins/Lancet studies, despite your earlier claims that their figures were verified by "other researchers".

Do we agree that the total number of victims in Iraq, after 2003, is probably over 100 thousands

Because newspapers often get stories involving science and statisics wrong. And because of the old saying "if it bleeds it leads". Sensationalistic stories get more press because they bring in more readers.

No comment

I told you exactly what the problem is... Iraq is positioning military targets next to civilian targets, so that any 'precision' bombing, regardless of how careful, will result in the deaths of innocents.

Less than 100000

Would you accept those deaths as the cost of handling Saddam? (Something tells me that if the U.S. did try such precision bombing, you'd be one of the first ones complaining about the U.S. killing innoncents.)

You know what I think before I do

Or would you leave those targets, thus encouraging Saddam to use even more civilian targets as human sheilds?

And since in other threads you seem to think that the invasion required U.N. approval, would you have a similar requirement for such precision attacks? Or would you consider it moralistic for the U.S. to engage in such military actions unilaterally? And if you say that U.N. approval is required, and it fails to act, are you going to accept the continued human rights abuses?

You are enlarging the topic unneccesarily

No, they took an action that they felt was politically advantageous. Morality did not enter into this at all.

How do you know?
Racism against Germany?

Fine.... the U.S. supplied 1% of Iraq's conventional arms, so they should be responsible for 1% of its deaths. Saddam can be responsible for the other 99%.

It still puzzles me.
I have posted a quote, from a reliable source, that some USD 5 Billions were
conveyed to Saddam, by the American branch of an Italian Bank ( Banca Nazionale del Lavoro ).

As for 'other nations' not selling guns to Saddam... remember, most of his conventional arms came from communust countries, countries that the U.S. had abolutely no control over.

In this very point, I agree that you have taken me aback, and I am studying to understand more of it

Actually, it has... there is more free speech, more freedom of religion, more economic freedom in Iraq now than there was under Saddam. And the current death rate, although unfortunate, is not as bad as when Saddam was in power.

Many people and organizations are not of the same opinion

So please point to one area where people have less human rights now than under Saddam.

All the areas where suicide bombers operate..

Of course, it is getting off topic... your original claim was that Saddam's abuses could have been stopped by precision military actions. I've already pointed out that a decade of such action did not stop such abuses. All you are trying to do is cloud the issue and avoid the fact that I've debunked your claim.

They did not stop them, but they have, somehow, contained them?
Basically, I think the US could have stopped almost all Saddam actions, without taking him out of power.
Do you agree?

No you haven't... In fact, whenever I pointed out specific problems with your 'plan', you've only argued that you "can't know strategy".

My "can't know strategy" is probably better than Bush` s " I know how " strategy

I never claimed there were. (There were some claims that that many people died due to sanctions, but I don't necessarily accept them.) But there were 10s of thousands of deaths, in large part due to direct killings. Those deaths were not stopped by continued U.S. and British attempts at stopping Saddam's abuses through low level military action like you were proposing..

Let` s see..
10s of thousands of deaths in a decade from 1991 to 2003.
And, at least 75000 deaths, only from 2003 to 2007


No what? What type of answer is that?

I was not asking a 'yes/no' question... You brought up the issue of Rwanda and suggested that it was more worthy of intervention. You even mentioned the number of people killed. So, where is your justification? How do you measure when a case of human rights abuses is worthy of intervention and when a case is not?

My reply was not just " no ".
You did not quote it all..

Maybe it could have, maybe it could not. If there was a better way, then I'd actually like to see an actual plan, not just the empty ideas that you put forward, where you avoid any hard questions.

Yes, Prof. Matteo Martini, head consultant from the John Hopkins University, now elaborates, alone, a plan for the U.S. military..
In his spare time..
I just gave you an idea, containing Saddam without taking him out of power

By that, I assume you mean "I was wrong... I never did address that issue, now I want to hide the fact that I was wrong".

No, I am busy, not wrong..
 
There is a difference between these and Bush.

Saddam, Ahmadinejad and others can be contained.

By who?
Putin?
Shinzo Abe?
Kofi Annan?

U.N. did that to Saddam after 1992, and is doing it to Ahmadinejad now.

The UN started the total disctruction of Iraq and Iran?
In which planet are you living?

Bush cannot be contained.

Republican Tancredo -of the bombing the Mecca fame- if in power in U.S., cannot be contained.

More force needs to be applied by U.N. against Bush, Tancredo.

Tancredo is Mr. Nobody.
He has no power.
Bush, so far, has attacked Iraq, but with the aim of changing it into a democracy.
It was not a war of occupation, Hitler` s style..
 
Secretary of State James Baker personally intervened to promote strong ties with Baghdad. A briefing paper prepared for a March 1989 meeting between Baker and Iraqi Foreign Ministry Under Secretary Nizar Hamdoon discussed Iraq’s active involvement in chemical and biological warfare and missile programs, and recommended stressing the sensitivity of Iraq’s chemical weapons use for U.S.-Iraq relations.9 Hamdoom and Baker discussed Iraq’s wish for medium-term Eximbank export credit guarantees, and Baker assured him that he would take a personal interest in the question. (The State Department later warned Baker that moving forward with the credits would be problematic, given strong congressional opposition to Iraq’s recent chemical weapons use.)10 In June, Baker wrote to Secretary of Agriculture Clayton Yeutter to ask him to increase the size of the CCC’s GSM-102 program by $1 billion, to solve a problem "that has consequences for both U.S. foreign policy and agricultural exports."11 Soon thereafter, the Agriculture Department informed the National Advisory Council on International Monetary and Financial Policies (NAC), an interagency group responsible for approving economic programs involving foreign countries, that Agriculture planned to offer Iraq $1 billion in export credit guarantees for FY 1990.

http://foi.missouri.edu/evolvingissues/iraqgate.html
 
If you want to argue that the over riding lack of intervention in Rwanda was a lack of political will/indifference/disbelief that mass slaughter would occur, sure, that was certainly a multinational political problem. That does not change the fact that it is far easier to intervene/help/prevent in nation states that are relatively easier to get to -- see my pointing to the small coastal states in West Africa and the relative ease of aid and NEO operations -- than in remote, hard to get to places, like Rwanda. The problem of timely action is a combination of a political decision, and the sheer physical problem of getting people and things, the right people and things, into a conflict zone and sustaining the operation.

No, Darth, I do not swallow this.
The Tutsi, were not armed at all, they could have stopped very easily.
Basically, the US could have at least, tried to contained them, but they did nothing, exactly like France, the UK, Germany, Russia, etc.
 
Anybody who think the Aytalloahs ruling Iran getting their hands on nukes is somehow a good thing is,frankly,a fool.
 

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