Here is why Ron Paul hasn't got a shot in hell.
There are three main groups of people in the Republican party. There's a good amount of overlap, and the descriptions don't necessarily apply to every single individual, but generally speaking in the GOP you can find three factions:
- Neocons and Reagan Republicans--people who are mainly concerned about a strong foreign policy, who think the "War on Terror" is the most important issue right now.
- Christian fundamentalists (a.k.a. the "religious right")--the Dobson/Robertson/
Falwell crowd.
- Small-government conservatives and libertarians.
Any successful Republican candidate has to convince two of these groups that he's one of them, and at minimum pay lip service to the third. Reagan's genius was that he was able to convince all three factions he was one of them. Dubya, on the other hand, was successful because while his base was/is in the Reaganite/Neocon faction, he also spent a lot of time working the religious right--issues such as abortion and gay marriage have come up fairly often, and usually not accidentally. He's paid some lip service to the small-government crowd, but he's really never gone further than that.
Ron Paul really only appeals to the hardcore small-government conservatives and libertarians (obviously). He won't get any support whatsoever from the Christian Right or the Neocons, because his honesty won't let him give lip service. The Christians hate him because he doesn't think the government should be in the business of banning abortion or dictating who can and can't get married, and the Neocons hate him because he's against the War in Iraq and the Patriot Act.
The winning candidate will know how to play the game. McCain figured out that his criticism of the Religious Right cost him a lot of votes in 2000, and has spent the past year and a half or so fellating as many preachers as possible. At the same time, he's been trumpeting a consistent message of support for the war in Iraq (though he says it's been "mismanaged"

) and the general "war on terror."
Giuliani's momentum has begun to wane. To his credit, he didn't decide to reverse his position on abortion like McCain or Romney, and that's costing him. He made a number of attempts to try and get the Christian Right to look past his abortion stance, but they're not having anything to do with it. The only real chance he has at this point is to appeal to the small-government crowd and his Neocon base; in fact, a couple weeks ago his campaign released some basic campaign promises called "12 Commitments to the American People," which seem to be designed solely to appeal to Neocons and small-government conservatives.
Paul's issue is that not only is his sole base of support in the small-government faction, but the other candidates are paying enough lip service so that small-government conservatives can find something to vote for there. Paul really only appeals to the
hard-core small-government crowd; unless he breaks out of that, he's not going anywhere.