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Full Moon Madness

If people believed that the new moon made you mad they would act silly then.

Paul

:) :) :)
 
casebro said:
I'll explain: The direct action of the heavenly bodies only makes the open ocean rise and fall an inch. Most people will think that their local tides are 6-7 feet. Those local tides are the one inch direct tides, amplified by the undersea geography. So, if most people think the moon-made waves are causing insanity, then wouldn't they be blaming big waves in general? So, if the believers in lunacy have any consistancy, wouldn't the blame Tsunamis for insanity too?
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From the quotation in the OP, it would appear that they are talking about the gravitational effect of the moon directly on the fluids in our bodies, rather than an indirect effect mediated by tides or other movements of bodies of water:
Most of us know that the moon affects the tides. But it also affects all liquids on earth, including our bodily fluids.
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And anyway, who said that these loons have to be consistent? If they were being consistent they would also have to take into account the gravitational pull of the moon on all solids on earth.
 
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Shadow said:
I always assumed the reason there was more crime during a full moon was that there was more light to see the victim. Its hard to mug someone when you can't see them.
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I read an expensive Government study on this, long time ago. (Couldn't find it on Google). After a buttload of money they discovered it was due to the extra light. Criminals could see better.
 
Shadow said:
I always assumed the reason there was more crime during a full moon was that there was more light to see the victim. Its hard to mug someone when you can't see them.
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Is there more crime during a full moon? Do you have any references? I know of none and would like to find out what kind of study showed this.
 
You skeptics. It's a fact that more lunar eclipses happen at the full moon!


...wait a minute...
 
Jeff Corey said:
Is there more crime during a full moon? Do you have any references? I know of none and would like to find out what kind of study showed this.
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Using Google I found 5 scientific studies that showed correlation between the lunar cycles and human events. Crime, (certain kinds only), the stock market, and bleeding after surgery. Using a computer it isn't hard to compare events with lunar cycles, even going back many years.

There were references to other studies, but I have not found the original documents yet. Yes, the studies were not accepted by many people, who believe they already know everything about the moon and human behavior, so the studies can't be true.

How strange.
 
robinson said:
Using Google I found 5 scientific studies that showed correlation between the lunar cycles and human events. Crime, (certain kinds only), the stock market, and bleeding after surgery. Using a computer it isn't hard to compare events with lunar cycles, even going back many years.
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If you only found 5, you weren't looking very hard. Scientific? A lot of the studies are on astrology sites. The stock market study stated there were two phases of the moon, and each phase covered 15 days.

Doesn't sound very convincing to me.
 
robinson said:
I ignore astrology sites, as well as any other woo sources.
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Good! :)

However, with some studies, I find it difficult to really tell whether it's "woo" or not. Sometimes it's strange assumptions, or misunderstanding of statistics. I agree that the computer has made it easier to do calculations on a lot of data, but you still need to know what you are looking at. The computer has also made it easier (and sometimes harder to detect) poor methods.
 
robinson said:
Using Google I found 5 scientific studies that showed correlation between the lunar cycles and human events. Crime, (certain kinds only), the stock market, and bleeding after surgery. Using a computer it isn't hard to compare events with lunar cycles, even going back many years.

There were references to other studies, but I have not found the original documents yet. Yes, the studies were not accepted by many people, who believe they already know everything about the moon and human behavior, so the studies can't be true.

How strange.
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How about actual references to studies that we can read?
And while I don't believe that I know everything about the moon and human behavior, I do know a lot about the design and proper interpretation of such studies.
 
Continued .
For example, some naive people run a lot of correlations and find some to be statistically significant, typically at p<.05. What they don't realize is that if they run 1000 correlations, about 50 would be expected to be significant at the .05 level or less by sheer chance. Then they throw out all the insignificant correlations and trumpet the survivors of this data mining exercise as being worthy of our attention.
Bad science.
Not to mention the quiz question:
1. Correlation does not imply _________________.
 
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robinson said:
Using Google I found 5 scientific studies that showed correlation between the lunar cycles and human events. Crime, (certain kinds only), the stock market, and bleeding after surgery. Using a computer it isn't hard to compare events with lunar cycles, even going back many years.

There were references to other studies, but I have not found the original documents yet. Yes, the studies were not accepted by many people, who believe they already know everything about the moon and human behavior, so the studies can't be true.

How strange.
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Very strange. No studies yet. Maybe we have to have a Silvia style clock.
 
Sometimes

The problem with scientific studies of the full moon and a relationship with crime, or psychiatric problems, is that even after some researcher goes to the trouble of simply comparing records with a full moon table, it is still isn't considered evidence.

Rather than go to the trouble of replicating the research, you know, looking at the data yourself, or doing a study, most people who are not police officers or ER workers just dismiss the study.

The recent new story about Hawke's Bay
http://www.hbtoday.co.nz/localnews/...localnews&thesubsection=&thesecondsubsection=
Research on links between the lunar cycle and violent behaviour had tended more toward scepticism when it came to making a connection, although earlier this year Professor Michael Zimecki of the Polish Academy of Sciences reportedly found that a full moon could effect criminal activity.

And in 1998, a three-month psychological study of 1200 inmates at a prison in Leeds revealed a rise in violent incidents during the days either side of the full moon.
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or Brighton
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/article2619351.ece
Sussex Police said research by the force into factors which influenced people’s behaviour found a correlation between violent and unruly incidents and full moons, with a rise in aggressive behaviour in pubs and nightclubs in the south coast resort. A Sussex Police spokeswoman said more officers would be assigned to street patrol duties during full moons over the summer months.

Inspector Andy Parr said: “I compared a graph of full moons and a graph of last year’s violent crimes and there is a trend. People tend to be more aggressive.”
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are simply considered as impossible. By people who won't lift a finger to check for themselves.

It isn't hard to do, you read the logs, look at the data, compare to a moon chart. It could be done anywhere. Prisons, Hospitals, Police Departments, whatever.

Of all things, this is one of those matters that it is possible to research, and without a huge cost.
 
Jeff Corey said:
How about actual references to studies that we can read?
And while I don't believe that I know everything about the moon and human behavior, I do know a lot about the design and proper interpretation of such studies.
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As is the case with almost everything published on the Internets, the raw data isn't available, just the conclusions. You claim "I do know a lot about the design and proper interpretation of such studies", which would be quite cool, if it is true.

So, because such a study is easy to do, based on evidence actually being available, and abundant, what would be the design, that would stand up to your 'proper interpretation'? I'm not being funny, (I know, it sounds like it, but I'm not, really).

You have data, (hospital admissions, emergency room treatments, police logs, prison logs, jail logs, etc), and you have the phases of the moon. Both of these go back a long time, and they exist all over the world.

What would be the procedure for looking at this issue? I mean, it doesn't sound that difficult a problem. You compare numbers with dates. What would be the problem? The studies that claim there is no correlation don't provide their data either, so what does proper interpretation mean here?

What needs to be done to prevent any bias or errors? And if the data was available, could you do a study on it that would stand up to peer review? Or even better, make it so anyone looking at the data could see for themselves the truth of the matter?


Big Les said:
Wait a second, are you backing this tripe?
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I'm a skeptic. I like to see evidence before I make up my mind. Something like the full moon and crime, it is an obvious issue that could be researched based on evidence.

As I said before, an expensive study was done to determine WHY there was more crime on or near the full moon. They found it was the ability to see at night, because of the extra light, led to more criminal activity on nights where there was a full moon.

And no, they didn't publish the data. They concluded it was the extra light of the moon helping criminals commit crimes. The study was not to see if there was more crime, it was to find out WHY there was more crime.

A police log and a moon chart can show the relationship between crime and the moon. What I think is funny, is that some people think it is the moon causing the crime. And that some people think there is no correlation between the phase of the moon, and crime.

While researching this, I was surprised that there is a connection to bleeding after surgery and the moon phase. This was based on a scientific study, which set out to prove there was no connection. That can't be explained by extra light at night. And again, the data is not published.

Too bad Randi doesn't include this in the $MDC. But even Randi knows better than making that claim. It is too easy to prove.
 
I challenge your claim, Robinson. Before speculating on the reason, cough up the data. I don't care if it is an abstract or the full methodology. But if you are now claiming there is evidence the phenom is more than selective memory, then you need to start with some evidence.

"A police log and a moon chart can show the relationship between crime and the moon. What I think is funny, is that some people think it is the moon causing the crime. And that some people think there is no correlation between the phase of the moon, and crime."

I looked at those links, they are full of BS so let's look at the claims.

source 1
Research or not, one of the Bay's long-serving officers is in no doubt there is a link between the full moon and "bizarre" and often violent activity.

"I can vouch for that because I've seen it happen," Sergeant Mal Lochrie said.

..."You hear the troops talk about it ... they'll say 'uh oh, there's a full moon'," he said.

And in 1998, a three-month psychological study of 1200 inmates at a prison in Leeds revealed a rise in violent incidents during the days either side of the full moon.
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So we have selective memory and an unpublished claim. Right. :rolleyes:

I'll see if I can find the study.

source 2
Inspector Andy Parr said: “I compared a graph of full moons and a graph of last year’s violent crimes and there is a trend. People tend to be more aggressive.”

The link between full moons and extremes in human behaviour has been identified in past scientific studies. Professor Michal Zimecki, of the Polish Academy of Sciences, analysed dozens of studies that take lunar activity into account, and argued that a full moon could affect criminal activity and health. One such piece of research, a three-month psychological study of 1,200 inmates at Armley jail, Leeds, in 1998, found a marked increase in violent incidents during the first and last quarter of each lunar month.
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Inspector Parr claims he checked. But we have no information how many lunar cycles he even looked at. And the article cites the same study. Guess I should be able to find it.


And bleeding after surgery? What source did you read this crap in? Did you do the study? Because if not then you had to read it somewhere. I didn't see that in those sources. Did I miss it?

So far, it looks like a fake story. It is only in these news sources. I'll keep looking.

Only web hits for the "Professor" are again, repeats of the news articles.

OK, I'm getting closer. The Professor is an immunologist. And again, the reference to the paper is in the news, but no link to the paper. I shall continue.

Anyone read Polish? Wait, they have an English page.

I find this one paper written by Zimecki with no reference to Moon or lunar in it.

Your turn, robinson. Prove this isn't a fraudulent news story that has been repeated by other news agencies.

BTW, I can't find Zimecki in the Polish Academy's list of full members, corresponding members, foreign members, or deceased members. Nor does Moon or lunar return anything on their search site.
 
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