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NIST Petition Demands Corrections

This is getting ridiculous.

MirageMemories, answer please:

Which of the three cases best matched what we observed in real life? Less severe, baseline, or more severe? Choose only one.

After that we can talk about why, and try to wean you away from cut-'n'-pasting out of Wikipedia.
 
This is another of those things that NIST had to do, since there's not much else they can do.

The fluid "bouncing" as opposed to soaking is probably accurate, since adsorption isn't usually a fast enough process to capture fluid that still has significant kinetic energy. However, the mechanism I'd expect to see is the fluid being aerosolized as kinetic energy is dissipated as heat.

Having said that, the amount of fuel was far too great to all remain in suspension -- you might think of it as there being more fuel than air in the first few seconds -- and the simulation didn't need to run for very long. These factors probably make my observation above irrelevant.

While I'll accept those simplifications, I still think NIST should have done a more thorough job matching the fuel simulation against the ultimate fuel distribution on all floors, not just the focus floors, since a great deal was dispersed all the way down into the basements. If you haven't seen it, consider the information on Table 6-1 on page 81 of NIST NCSTAR1-7 (and note to MirageMemories: I use the actual page numbers, not the Adobe Reader numbers, because it keeps references consistent, mmm'kay?). The spread of damage and fire was quite large throughout the entire structure. I don't know that their simulation doesn't account for all of the jet fuel that was sent to lower floors, but some consistency checking would be a useful additional validation.

Again, this highlights just how complex and cutting-edge this simulation is. There are lots of simplifications by necessity. In the end, we can only judge its accuracy by how well it fits observations versus how many kludges we had to invoke to get those results, and in that respect it fits rather well.


Yes, after I gave it some extra thought, and from what others had said, I agree that bouncing was likely more accurate in the 0.72 seconds of the simulation.

Even more interesting though, is how much of an impact the spray of such high velocity liquid would have had on the SFRM. (Beachnuts water washer example).

TAM:)
 
Primarily because as R.Mackey has repeatedly emphasized; "We have a highly complicated event, little hard data, and of questionable sufficiency for permitting quantification."

He then lists 9 possible selection criteria for the NIST Model.

Of the 9, only ONE, the impact on the outer walls can be substantiated by the video and photographic record.

3 others can be partially substantiated by the video and photographic record; "Initiation locations and spread of fires", "Disposition of floor damage and bowing after evolution" and "Evolution of the exterior after fire simulation." They still require extrapolation.

Since only ONE of the 9 selection criteria can be fully substantiated by the video and photographic record, it exists as primary selection criteria for verifying that the NIST WTC Model is performing reasonably accurately.

The fact that the landing gear exited the WTC 1 perimeter wall at 105 mph, suggests that it passed through the building on a path that did not seriously block it's passage.

So, in other words, you want the entire validity of the simulation to rest on a single piece of debris.

Do you not quite understand the number of variables involved?

Let's take the base case. 443mph, 10.6° trajectory pitch, 8.6° orientation pitch. Yaw is 0. In this case, the landing gear does not exit. In the more severe case, at increased speed and pitch, the gear does not exit, but significant debris impacts the south wall.

So what were NIST supposed to do exactly to get this gear to exit? Run another two week long simulation at 433mph, with 10.6° trajectory pitch, 8.6° orientation pitch and zero yaw? Suppose that one didn't have a landing gear exit. What now? 453mph with 10.6° trajectory pitch, 8.6° orientation pitch and zero yaw? 463mph with 12.6° trajectory pitch, 9.6° orientation pitch and 2.5° yaw? 457mph with 11.9° trajectory pitch, 8.1° orientation pitch and 0.5° yaw? Move the plane 1ft east and repeat all of them?

I hope you understand.

NIST admits that minor aircraft entry corrections would significantly improve the match with the video and photographic record.

"None of the three WTC 2 global impact simulations resulted in a large engine fragment exiting the tower. However, the impact behavior suggests that only minor modifications (lowered 1-2 ft.) would be required to achieve this response." NIST NCSTAR 1-2B, WTC Investigation pg353.

I think it is illogical to tweak a parameter so that it will result in the Model failing 100% to approximate the only conclusive primary selection criteria as observed video and photographic record.

Matching the video and photographic record would necessarily lessen the internal damage in all 3 scenarios.

NIST admitted a minor change would be necessary for an engine exit in WTC2, not the landing gear exit in WTC1. You may think narratives on each exit can be swapped in this way but the situations are very different.

The engine in WTC2 was travelling through a wall and then nothing but offices. A minor change would stop it from hitting a significant piece of structure, a floorplate.
The landing gear in WTC1 had to negotiate several core columns, machiney rooms and elevator shafts in addition to offices. In order for NIST to find the exact parameters necessary to have the gear exit, they could have to perform hundreds, perhaps thousands of different two week long simulations.
 
I could just as easily say; "case closed 9/11 solved. I'm right your wrong!"

If my example is so flawed, and I am "busted', it should be very easy for you to explain to me how a pound of seat material or a pound of titanium steel striking a core column at 570 mph will have the same effect?

MM


Actually, the people who understand science are right and you are wrong. Apart from crossing a few t's and dotting a few i's, the case of the jihadist attacks of 9/11 is solved.

If you were asking reasonable questions, nobody would object. You persist, however, in posing as a worthy debate opponent for people who know vastly more about science, a subject about which you have only the most rudimentary knowledge.
 
I don't see the reasoning behind your statement that "the total amount is roughly the same", unless 'roughly' is used very loosely? A titanium jet engine or landing gear represents a more significant 'chunk' than a piece of luggage for instance.

Using this assumption for the base and extreme case scenarios to cover the absence of a landing gear exit is an unsupported claim in my opinion. Concentrated titanium debris, the landing gear or engine, does not equate to a similar accumulation of the same mass in the form of luggage, glass and aluminum fragments. At least as far as it's potential impact damage potential is concerned.

You need to need look at reality and not let the Model become reality.

MM

If you had read the report thoroughly you would understand the point R.Mackey made.

The debris that hit the south wall of WTC1 and exited the building was not flimsy seats or glass:
Because of model size constraints, the panels on the south face of WTC 1 were modeled with a very coarse resolution. Neither the spandrel splice joints nor exterior column butt joints were modeled.
Column ends and spandrel edges were merged together. The model, therefore, underestimates the damage to the tower on this face. The calculated damage produced by the more severe impact is shown in Figure 9–121. Columns 329–331 on floors 94 through 96 had sustained substantial damage. Had a fine mesh been used on these columns, it is likely that they would have failed on floor 95, and possibly on 94 and 96. Based on the failure modes observed on the north face and on the speed and mass of the debris, the panel would potentially be knocked free by failing at the connections.

So in the severe case, with thousands more nodes in the model, the debris flying towards the south wall would have knocked free the exact same exterior panel that was knocked free on 9/11.
Would that debris have been glass, seats or luggage? Or debris that would have had the capacity to sever or damage core columns were it captured inside the core and did not hit the south wall?

Thus, the debris that hit the south wall in the simulation was approximately equal to the landing gear that hit it in reality.


I'm not sure I should have bothered writing this post. R.Mackey has explained this to you much more eloquently than I numerous times and you still haven't got it.
 
It's actually more about how energy is applied!

It's too simplistic to treat the simulation damage as simply a matter of total energy transference.

If significant amounts of energy is focused on critical structural components in each tower, energy that based on the observed data should not have been focused anywhere within the towers, then we are going to end up with a fire simulation working on non-existent tower structural damage.

Simply put, the titanium engines and landing gear, aircraft components moving at high velocity that should not have been absorbed within the tower models, had a far greater focused energy transfer potential to inflict deformation damage to the core, than did the large volume of relatively soft small particles of aluminum, glass, baggage, plastics and flesh that were moving at high velocity after the aircraft crashed through the steel outer perimeter of each tower.

The example of a pound of flesh moving at 500 mph does not equate to the same effect as the pound of steel moving at 500 mph. You are ignoring the coefficient of restitution, which measures how elastic the collision is. As I stated in an earlier reply, It is a function of the hardness or softness of the colliding objects, which along with velocity determines impulse. If hard objects collide (for a perfectly inelastic collision, e=0), they will accelerate one another quickly, transferring a large amount of force in a small amount of time while soft objects colliding (for a perfectly elastic collision, e=1) transfer smaller amounts of energy to one another for longer periods of time.

Given the need to apply an extreme case scenario to the simulation in order to create the collapse initiation, this non-existent core damage which was erroneously applied to the simulation brings the results into serious question!

MM
Do you actually know what you are saying means?

You should listen to some of the others here, they seem to have a good current grasp on this topic.

I took your titanium bullet and an aluminum bullet and the Al bullet cut the steel beam in half and the titanium bullet shattered, and put a hole in the steel and was all over the place. What went wrong with your model? Do I have to adjust my model. Why was the Al bullet so big? It looks like the Al did more damage to my single steel column. Why?

Edited and infracted under the more stringent CT rules currently in place. Keep it civil; attack the argument, and not the person.
Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: jmercer

 
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What you're missing is that you're treating impact of a single object, versus impact of a cloud of objects.

The objects in the WTC case are essentially trapped in the WTC structure (unless they actually punch a hole and exit, in which case the damage is done by default). Since they're trapped, they are doomed to deliver all of their kinetic energy to the structure, regardless of how many times it ricochets before it is finally spent.

Also, your equation is just one mechanism. Your equation predicts that jet fuel, having a coefficient of restitution of effectively one, would do no damage at all to steel columns. That is true for small amounts of jet fuel or low speeds, but it is utterly false for 10,000 gallons moving at 0.85 Mach. Indeed, in the case of the Pentagon, which didn't totally collapse and burn and therefore allowed a more detailed inspection of the impact mechanics, the primary mode of deformation is caused by blast and fluid effects, and only in a few cases was blunt impact the dominant factor.

The NIST simulations capture these effects nicely.

By the way, you have it backwards. Hard objects are more likely to collide elastically, not soft objects. That's why billiard balls aren't made of clay.

I can't keep up with all the posts.

I'll try and respond to your group of posts in just this single response.

Regarding my supposed misquotes from your replies, that was not intentional. In the interest of brevity, I only quoted what I thought was the essence of your message. I'm sorry it's so tedious.

Originally Posted by R.Mackey
The best guess they constructed does not agree very well with the landing gear observation, but it's not bad -- while they don't predict landing gear break-through, they do predict a large mass of aircraft breaking through in similar fashion, and with only minor tweaks that are inside the margin of observational error, that mass can be the landing gear.
Your statement was confusing and lacked clarity so I applied it as best I could. To me, "does not agree very well" and "but it's not bad" don't co-exist well and frankly contradict each other. Is a large mass supposed to equate to a unified mass or just a large accumulation of aircraft particles? By saying that with a few tweaks, within the margin of observational error, that the mass could be the landing gear, do you mean it could have the equivalent mass or actually could be physically characteristic of the actual landing gear? It's a very important distinction.

Again I apparently misquoted you about massive chunks of aircraft. You are very easy to misquote unfortunately..or slippery.

Anyway, in the more severe case "chunks" of something, apparently from the aircraft, was comparable in size to the landing gear or a wheel and that for you, this was in excellent agreement.

Well I've looked at the their graphics and see the progression of the aircrafts through the towers. It's not particularly clear to me how they can be sure that what appears to be a small amount of debris exit is actually from the aircraft, or pieces from inside the building when it was impacted by pieces of the aircraft? It's important because particles or groups of particles would not be as significant as a large object known to definitely come from the aircraft. As we know, the only aircraft components capable of remaining relatively intact were the heavy steel components like the titanium engine and landing gear. The rest of the aircraft and it's contents, due to lack of material strength would have become part of the debris cloud.

I think NIST definitely erred in using a homogeneous model. It unfairly describes the aircraft, and when combined with the model failing to confirm the only major observable criteria, the exiting engine and landing gear, it raises justifiable concerns when only their extreme case scenario succeeded in a collapse initiation.

I disagree that the jet fuel, even at 570 mph, as in the extreme case scenario, had enough concentratible momentum to cut the towers steel perimeter columns.

Quote=R.Mackey
No, not really. Exiting the far side of the Tower depends on two things -- trajectory, and whether or not core and perimeter columns were cleared out by something in front. The total energy captured by the tower, and the energy dissipated by the core columns, are the most important features, and energy is a function of m v2 rather than the inherent strength of the components. A stronger component may actually deliver less damage in some situations, because more energy can be dissipated by deforming the component!
That argument may have merit when debating the downward forces acting on the towers at the point of collapse initiation but I feel it is less compelling when dealing with these lateral "slicing" forces.

Yes trajectory of course factors into what lines up with what, and therefore will determine where the relatively clear paths to the exit perimeter wall lay. The major stopper for large, heavy, materially strong objects prior to a clean exit, is of course the heavy steel core columns. Certainly they had the capacity to stop engines and landing gear, while obviously sustaining significant damage to themselves in the process. The fact that a jet engine and landing gear did in fact break through the opposite steel perimeter walls and exit the towers at over 100+ mph indicates a lot of core damaging aircraft components failed to do what the NIST simulation indicates they must have done.

You are arguing energy totals as the key ingredient and I disagree. Certainly the total energy is something to be considered and given a large enough energy budget, the landing gear and the engines could be ruled out as inconsequential in the greater scheme of things. The fact that the less severe and base scenarios failed to create a collapse initiation indicates there wasn't an overwhelming energy budget available. The columns were vulnerable to focused energy and less vulnerable to dispersed energy of the same amount. Think of a karate chop. The same amount of energy delivered with the flat of the hand (large surface area) vs. the side of the hand (small surface area), when striking a board is going to produce two different results. I won't insult your intelligence by explaining that further.

Quote=R.Mackey
To clarify my issues with the NIST model: The key differences between the modeled impact and reality are the disposition of engine fragments and landing gear. These differences are pretty minor, but worth discussion. The components have three things in common -- they are relatively solid, they are likely to detach as a unit, and they are round.
"Aircraft debris external to the towers (landing gear for WTC 1 and landing gear and engine for WTC 2) as documented by photographic evidence."
xc NIST NCSTAR 1-2B, WTC Investigation

NOT engine fragments but the whole heavy titanium steel engine!

Quote=R.Mackey
If I was conducting this investigation from scratch, I would be leery of using a homogeneous material assumption, but to do otherwise might be too complex to actually compute.
Which only serves to support my contention that NIST over compromised their Model!

Quote=R.Mackey
Both engines and wheels would be more damage resistant than the rest of the aircraft structure, the first by virtue of its high-strength alloys, the second due to its shape and rubber coating. In the model this could be included as a ballistic "fudge factor," or if treated as independent objects, they could be granted a higher component strength.
I agree.
Quote=R.Mackey
The engine fragments, on the other hand, are tricky. As NIST notes in their report, all three cases could plausibly eject engine fragments, because -- not captured in their model -- the engine starts with considerable rotational momentum. They treated it as static. They didn't know how to deal with this, and I don't either. The best I can think of is to flag engine core components and add a centripetal velocity once any piece gets detached.
A complete heavy titanium steel engine in the case of WTC2, not just fragments which only lessens the apparent significance!

Quote=R.Mackey
In the end, though, neither of these concerns is such a big deal, except to malcontents looking for any trace of uncertainty upon which to build a tirade. The global results of the NIST simulation are surprisingly accurate, and even more surprisingly, not overly sensitive to changes in input conditions. I am impressed with the quality of their answers, even though I had some doubts based on their approach.
Not a big deal? Malcontents? Excuse me for not rolling over and accepting every word of the NIST conclusions. The global results of the NIST simulations are surprisingly accurate? I guess accuracy is based on the fact that sure enough, NIST tweaked the extreme case scenario and sure enough the towers fell. just like in reality..case closed. I am impressed by NIST's beautifully presented final report. It looks sweet doesn't it? 10,000 marvelous pages of professional excellence! Who could not love text that looks so good? Well I hate to tear the wrapping paper but the bottomline is the content.

I'm sorry, it doesn't matter if 9,999 pages of the report are true, if one page of critical flaws remain.

Quote=R.Mackey
It bears repeating that the simulations NIST conducted are (were) at the cutting edge of research in computational dynamics, not just in impact but in fluid and fire dynamics as well. Ten years ago, such an approach would have been unthinkable. Naturally it's not going to be perfect, but it's still well done.
Which makes their results and conclusions all the more subject to question!
Quote=R.Mackey
MirageMemories
, before quoting me again, please read for content.
I hope I haven't distorted your quotes this time.

Quote=R.Mackey
And let me refresh my latest question, since you seem to have ignored the previous formulation:

In your opinion, which of the three cases is the best fit to all the observed evidence? The less severe, baseline, or more severe case? Choose only one.
NONE!

I place more importance on the only proven observable than you do!

Regarding NIST and pdf page numbers, I know the difference and I always reference to the NIST page numbers which are clearly marked. If I was in error in saying you didn't do this, I apologize.

Yes I made a typo on elastic/inelastic.

I am well aware that there was a "cloud" of objects moving at high velocity inside the towers once the aircraft disintegrated after punching through the perimeter wall.

Just because I isolated the effect of one object, does not negate my point about deformation damage as invalid.

Some of the objects were trapped inside the WTC and some of the objects punched the perimeter walls, making high velocity exits, carrying their remaining destructive potential with them.

Diffused energy due to a high velocity spread of small, relatively soft particles is not going to have the potential for deformation damage that large relatively intact titanium steel jet engines and landing gear will.

Focused energy is more damaging to the core than distributed energy.

I won't argue that liquid moving at high speed carries significant mass and thus significant force, momentum and transferable energy. Since the bulk of fuel is carried inside the wings, it's impact force will be significantly spread out while being further lessened by contact with office components and interior walls. I really question how much impact damage the jet fuel had on critical building structural members.

I have no wish to go off on a tangent by including the Pentagon in this discussion.

No doubt in the volume of posts I have omitted replys to some of your questions. If my answers are important to you, I suggest you re-ask or move on.

MM
 
This is getting ridiculous.

MirageMemories, answer please:

Which of the three cases best matched what we observed in real life? Less severe, baseline, or more severe? Choose only one.

After that we can talk about why, and try to wean you away from cut-'n'-pasting out of Wikipedia.

Enough with the cheap shots R.Mackey!

I'm doing my best to keep this civil. If low blows are necessary to impress your audience and your argument than I have no reason to reply to you!

MM
 
Enough with the cheap shots R.Mackey!

I'm doing my best to keep this civil. If low blows are necessary to impress your audience and your argument than I have no reason to reply to you!

MM
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noted.
 
Actually, the people who understand science are right and you are wrong. Apart from crossing a few t's and dotting a few i's, the case of the jihadist attacks of 9/11 is solved.

If you were asking reasonable questions, nobody would object. You persist, however, in posing as a worthy debate opponent for people who know vastly more about science, a subject about which you have only the most rudimentary knowledge.

I suggest you speak from a knowledge base position!

MM
 
Enough with the cheap shots R.Mackey!

I'm doing my best to keep this civil. If low blows are necessary to impress your audience and your argument than I have no reason to reply to you!

MM
Did you take physics in college, or high school?

You have ignored all the numbers and math for just talk. When will you address how much energy you think escaped and why it makes a difference. Okay?
 
Enough with the cheap shots R.Mackey!

I'm doing my best to keep this civil. If low blows are necessary to impress your audience and your argument than I have no reason to reply to you!

MM
Cheap shot?? I ask you a simple question, and you call it a cheap shot?

From the guy who just wrote this, in his previous post?

Again I apparently misquoted you about massive chunks of aircraft. You are very easy to misquote unfortunately..or slippery.

I've caught you lying about the contents of the NIST report, and twice manipulating my quotes. I've repeatedly asked you very simple questions about what you think you know, and you evade, finally attacking rather than giving answers.

You are in splendid company with the petitioners. I almost wonder if you aren't one of them.

Consider yourself misinformed and doomed ever to remain so. Everybody else here gets it. If you have a reasonable question, feel free to ask. All other communications will be ignored.
 
Did you take physics in college, or high school?

You have ignored all the numbers and math for just talk. When will you address how much energy you think escaped and why it makes a difference. Okay?

You really like to tax a person's patience beachnut!

If you read my reply to R.Mackey you'll see my position regarding the whole energy equation.

MM
 
Cheap shot?? I ask you a simple question, and you call it a cheap shot?

After that we can talk about why, and try to wean you away from cut-'n'-pasting out of Wikipedia.

THAT was a cheap shot and none of the contents of my reply to you was extracted from Wikipedia!

MM
 
Don't just call me a liar, illustrate with your proof!

MM

I illustrated with full references in this post. Your claims about the contents of the NIST report are sharply at variance with what they actually are. Since you (finally) answered in the affirmative that you had read it, ignorance is not an option, and thus you are a liar.

And you still haven't answered the other, simple question. I asked that one three times, and you took no notice of the first two requests. Your evasiveness is hardly characteristic of one speaking from experience, knowledge, or a desire for useful discussion.

ETA: The following is not an answer:
NONE!

I place more importance on the only proven observable than you do!
One of the three is the best fit. Pick one.

If you're taking such umbrage about your impact equation, which isn't even applicable in this situation, then where did you get it from? Do you claim to have been trained in solid mechanics?
 
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You really like to tax a person's patience beachnut!

If you read my reply to R.Mackey you'll see my position regarding the whole energy equation.

MM
I was asking about physics since if you have no training at all it could take you years to understand what R.Mackey is saying.

I expect your response means you have no training in physics and you are the target group Dr Jones is banking on to mislead and tell his lies to.

You have been tricked by the truth movement and fallen for lies.

I have asked you about the amount of energy missing due to parts exiting the WTC and what the heck that means to the NIST model. The numbers please. I have helped you with the gross simplicity of it, R.Mackey has tried to help you in greater detail. Go get someone to help you and they could correct my simple model and explain it to you. But R.M has.
 
~570 mph (extreme case scenario) are far more destructive that aluminum, seats, and luggage which the NIST simulation shows to quickly become small debris.

Perhaps, but the sheer bulk of lighter material has a lot to do in this event, as well.

Think cannonballs vs bullets as an analogy.

Yes. Three cannonballs vs 16,000 bullets.

Obviously the most extreme case scenario is significant!

NIST picked the word 'extreme', not me. Obviously, one has to conclude that NIST felt anything beyond extreme was impossible!

I think you need to look up "obvious".

It means NIST pushed their Model to it's outer limits in order to achieve a collapse initiation!

I'm not sure you're not just speculating, here. Did NIST specifically say that they pushed the envelope ? Or does "extreme" simply mean "most severe out of the scenarios created" ?

Ahh. A fragmentation bomb. Bits of aluminum, bits of luggage, glass etc., bombarding the heavy structural steel of the 110 storey World Trade Centre core would have more devastating power than large heavy pieces of titanium steel.

"Bits of luggage" going at 500+ mph is not what I would call unimportant elements.

I beg to disagree, but again we are debating the validity of NIST's simulation..you are entitled to believe your guess has the most merit.

I am not guessing. You, on the other hand, seem distinctly out of your element.

The problem is your attempting to negate the influence of a major aircraft component. The landing gear in reality as we know, exited throught the opposite steel perimeter wall of the WTC at a significant speed of 105 mph and for the Model to halt it internally, it would require a significant obstruction..like the core.

In which case might I respectfully submit that the fact the landing gear exited the building largely undamaged shows that it didn't do much damage to the internal structure ?

We already have a NIST Model which in effect is nothing but numbers posing as reality

Unless you have a better means of investigating anything, I respectfully submit that, after the fact, all you have is something that poses for reality.
 
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I suggest you speak from a knowledge base position!

MM


Let's see if I can translate your response from evasive gibberish to English. We start by acknowledging that R. Mackey is a real, honest-to-goodness working scientist. Beachnut obviously has a strong grounding in technical matters, as do several of the posters here. I am not among them. I had to do a fair amount of reading in college physics to keep up with the explanations provided by the scientists. I will occasionally ask a question of Dr. Greening, for example, but I'm just not qualified to debate such types. Now, you clearly know no more about science than I do, and I'm being generous. That doesn't stop you from distorting the responses you receive and continuing to post uninformed, illogical opinions. If I should speak from "a knowledge base position," why shouldn't you? I don't presume to challenge authentic experts when I don't know what the hell I'm talking about. You, on the other hand, get your pretensions exposed every day without ever realizing that you're way out of your depth. The flaws in your arguments--and we will pass over the question of whether those arguments are disingenuous or merely uninformed--are repeatedly shown to you, to no effect. I think it would be an excellent idea to start accumulating that knowledge base you so conspicuously lack.
 

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