Carina Landin in test at this moment

drkitten said:
Er, who says it wasn't?

I don't know how good Ms. Landin is as a paleographer, but I'm not necessarily going to take her unsupported word about the age of the diaries.
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I find it highly unlikely that she made up those dates, given Jeff's comment here.

As it stands, it looks like the wording of the protocol was vague enough to allow for this issue to arise, which is unfortunate.
 
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GzuzKryzt said:
This makes for great sig material. :D Do I have your permission, ChristineR?



Perhaps we shall wait for the "official" protocols from Mr. Hansson to be acknowledged and posted here by Jeff. Don't worry, I'm curious, too.
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Naturally! Quote away. :D
 
"It seems that some of the diaries were older than was stipulated by the claimant's protocol."

That doesn't explain how she knew that. Unless I'm missing something. I had read that already by the way.
 
Dazed said:
"It seems that some of the diaries were older than was stipulated by the claimant's protocol."

That doesn't explain how she knew that. Unless I'm missing something. I had read that already by the way.
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I was referring to this bit:

She has been given access to the history of the diaries to verify their authenticity.
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Oh, thanks, duh.

Well, I doubt she'll do any better with newer diaries, but good luck to her.
 
Am I the only one thinking 12 out of 20 isn't too bad.

I'm not good with statistics so what are the odds that she could get 12 out of 20 right?

I know it doesn't really matter, but I'd be curious to hear about her reasons for not using the older diaries.
 
Spindrift said:
Am I the only one thinking 12 out of 20 isn't too bad.
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Sort of like the parapsychologists' study results that show an effect that is "nearly statistically significant." That means no effect was demonstrated. That's exactly why you agree on the number you have to make. There's no interpretation of results. Either she got at least 16 right, or she didn't. Even 15 right would have been a failure, and would have meant nothing. If she'd gotten 16 or more right, then the next step is to try for a replication. (Yes, it's unlikely, but chance can result in 16 or more right--even 20 right.)

It's a shame about the dated diaries, if that was part of the protocol. Has anyone heard whether the source of diaries can come up with 20 more (not reusing the same ones) that fit all the requirements?
 
Spindrift's comment could be a prophecy of worse things to come.
Let us consider a possible scenario.
She is retested and comes up with 11 to 15 correct answers.
JREF sais that is a fail, goodbye.
She says: "Thank you for giving me a scientific assessment of my abilities. It appears that I am very good but not as good as I thought. I can now tell everybody that I have been tested twice and I have always been more right than wrong. There is still a lot to learn about these powers."

What does JREF do? Grin and bear it or offer to test her until she scores a 9/20? If she accepts and by chance gets >10, say, 5 tests in a row, it would still be a long way from statistical significance within reasonable confidence limits, but at that point she would be on all the tabloids as The Psychic Who Is Always More Right Than Wrong.
It could evolve in a damned if you do and damned if you don't situation.
 
That's the basic problem with the JREF challenge: I't only really good when people don't dare to take it.

Hans
 
Jeff Wagg said:
After the test, she was concerned that two of the books were older than what she had asked for. She has been given access to the history of the diaries to verify their authenticity. (source)
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Was she told of the age of the diaries before or after the test? If before, did she raise the objection before the test, or only afterwards?
 
Spindrift said:
Am I the only one thinking 12 out of 20 isn't too bad.

I'm not good with statistics so what are the odds that she could get 12 out of 20 right?

I know it doesn't really matter, but I'd be curious to hear about her reasons for not using the older diaries.
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The diaries "psychometric-smell" fades after some time. That is how I understand it. The test have nothing to do with the dead Carina claims. I agree.
 
Why is 16 out of 20 successful and 15 out of 20 isn't? Is it just because that's what was agreed to, more or less arbitrarily, or is there a statistical, mathematical reason?
 
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