Is Gambling for Idiots?

MilwaukeeMike said:
A machine's program is carefully designed and tested to achieve a certain payback percentage.
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Yes MM, that's true ... but it does NOT imply that the likelihood of a win goes up after a long string of losses ... so stepping in after the drones simply does not work. I challenge you to try your strategy but keep careful and complete (no fair reporting on only the times you have success, you must include your losing experiences as well) and accurate records of amounts won & lost. Most people who gamble and believe they are ahead tend to remember (and tell others) of their successes and overlook or forget the losses. You may surprise yourself if you keep a careful record.

An example: a fair coin is 'programmed' to come up with a series of 10 heads in a row every so often ... and the number of flips expected before that happens can be calculated, or it could be approximated experimentally by watching lots of flips (lots & lots). But knowledge of that expected number (and observation of a drone) would not allow you 'step in' and hit such a streak of ten any more quickly than if you had not been observing the drone.
 
MilwaukeeMike said:
OK, you still are not reading what I am saying. Im not talking about a single pull. And Im not talking about an over the counter game mentioned at that "skeptic" website. Im not talking about selecting anything. Its very simple. A slot machine and a period of time. They have odds. Im not talking about roulette. Yah I know that in roulette people think red was picked so it cant be picked again. I mean that's so much more simple than the odds of a slot. Over a period of time a slot machine will average a certain number of wins.
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Oh, I am reading what you're saying. What you're saying is: "Thats why you sit there and let the "drones" flush their quarters away and step in when the time is right." Which is utterly wrong. 1000 games lost in a row won't change the outcome of the next 1000 games.

ETA: In case it bothers you that I linked to a skeptic website, here's what wikipedia says about the gambler's fallacy: "The gambler's fallacy is a logical fallacy that mistakenly believes past events will affect future events when dealing with random activities, such as many gambling games."
How does this not describe your statement that you have to "step in when the time is right"?
 
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MilwaukeeMike said:
OK, you still are not reading what I am saying. Im not talking about a single pull. And Im not talking about an over the counter game mentioned at that "skeptic" website. Im not talking about selecting anything. Its very simple. A slot machine and a period of time. They have odds. Im not talking about roulette. Yah I know that in roulette people think red was picked so it cant be picked again. I mean that's so much more simple than the odds of a slot. Over a period of time a slot machine will average a certain number of wins.
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And what happens before that time period does not affect the period. It doesn't matter if it hit before you played or had a run of not hitting, it is never due. The odds of you hitting in the time you play are always the same for a given machine.

In both the slots and roulette it is a mistake to look at its history and think that it will change the odds for the future. It is the same mistake in probability.
 
Hutch said:
andyandy, if you ever make it across the pond to Vegas, I'll take you to the blackjack tables and show you how I play it (better yet, get with Brown, the PaiGow Poker grandmaster).
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lol....me in vegas would be a bad idea.......:D
 
The programmers who make slot machines intentionally program them to show frequent near misses . The near misses are more frequent than probability would predict. This heightens the hysteria of the gambler and keeps them playing.
I live a few minutes from the Nevada border but never gamble. I go to a show once in a while but I agree.... Gamblers are idiots. Besides I hate all that cigarette smoke.
 
I haven't read the entire thread - I apologize if I repeat anything previously said.

- Slots have no memory. They return ON THE LONG HAUL 85 - 98% to the bettor. Generally, progressive machines pay on the lower end (cumulative jackpots that increase by the coin paid) vs moderate jackpots that pay more frequently (800 coins Xs for two coins paid on a 2 coin double diamond machine)

- Table games all have a house edge EXCEPT where you play PERFECT blackjack strategy and enjoy house edges like 'Wong' in and surrender where you may bet up to 2% player edge or banking at Pai Gow Poker against a full table of bettors.

EVERYTHING else you play is favoured to the house - but you can still win money - through bankroll management, intelligent betting etc... Poker is an anomaly because a) you don't have to make an initial bet unless it is prudent to do so and b) the house rakes out of the pot. So as long as you're a consistient player based on you hourly 'rate' - the rake is simply an annoyance. And its generally easy to work that rate into a meal / room discount.

-AHl
 
Gambling can be done successfully but only in a few ways.

As people have said, you can card-count at Blackjack but I'd add that memory techiques can be used to improve card-counting and strategy. You can also work as a team. If you consistently win big, you will attract attention, however. There are card-counters who win smaller amounts to avoid being asked to leave.

I don't have a clue if it's true now but in the 1950s you could "handicap the handicappers" at horse-racing. A scientist formerly of the Manhatten project realized that and did it quite successfully.
 
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Stir said something correct about utility.

for most people won't see multimillion dollars unless they play the lottery.
 
Morchella said:
The programmers who make slot machines intentionally program them to show frequent near misses . The near misses are more frequent than probability would predict. This heightens the hysteria of the gambler and keeps them playing.
I live a few minutes from the Nevada border but never gamble. I go to a show once in a while but I agree.... Gamblers are idiots. Besides I hate all that cigarette smoke.
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I don't think so, but if you have some proof, I'll change my opinion.
The machines only have to produce random outputs to insure the profits in the long run.
 
MilwaukeeMike said:
OK, you still are not reading what I am saying. Im not talking about a single pull. And Im not talking about an over the counter game mentioned at that "skeptic" website. Im not talking about selecting anything. Its very simple. A slot machine and a period of time. They have odds. Im not talking about roulette. Yah I know that in roulette people think red was picked so it cant be picked again. I mean that's so much more simple than the odds of a slot. Over a period of time a slot machine will average a certain number of wins.

"In a modern slot machine, the odds of hitting a particular symbol or combination of symbols depends on how the virtual reel is set up. As we saw in the last section, each stop on the actual reel may correspond to more than one stop on the virtual reel. Simply put, the odds of hitting a particular image on the actual reel depend on how many virtual stops correspond to the actual stop.

In a typical weighted slot machine, the top jackpot stop (the one with the highest-paying jackpot image) for each reel corresponds to only one virtual stop. This means that the chance of hitting the jackpot image on one reel is 1 in 64. If all of the reels are set up the same way, the chances of hitting the jackpot image on all three reels is 1 in 643, or 262,144. For machines with a bigger jackpot, the virtual reel may have many more stops. This decreases the odds of winning that jackpot considerably.

The losing blank stops above and below the jackpot image may correspond to more virtual stops than other images. Consequently, a player is most likely to hit the blank stops right next to the winning stop. This creates the impression that they "just missed" the jackpot, which encourages them to keep gambling, even though the proximity of the actual stops is inconsequential.

A machine's program is carefully designed and tested to achieve a certain payback percentage. The payback percentage is the percentage of the money that is put in that is eventually paid out to the player. With a payback percentage of 90, for example, the casino would take about 10 percent of all money put into the slot machine and give away the other 90 percent. With any payback percentage under a 100 (and they're all under 100), the casino wins over time."

URL removed because I'm new;(
I suspect this one is a victim of the gambler's fallacy, but there is some utility to his "strategy". Slot machines in a casino do not all have the same payout percentages: often one will machine will be a high-payout one, and then the ones next to it will be suckers. If one utilizes his strategy in reverse (i.e. playing "better" machines) one can come off better than average, although usually not better than the casino. There is money in paying off one winner and taking the bets of the two losers next to him.

And as to the original topic, I believe that one is an idiot if one expects to gamble and win over the long term. If you go to the racetrack and bet on a couple races, or play a couple spins of roulette, you can have fun without too much of a price, and maybe come away with a heavier wallet sometimes. And when it is something like sports betting or horse racing, it changes entirely from a weighted lottery to a contest of skill, if a tough one.
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Forget the NSA, Echelon, and all that, I want to know the Inner Workings of a Vegas Slot Machine. That must be some sort of amazing R&D combined with some Really Honest Engineering combined with Video Surveillance. How does it work? I scratch head and speculate-- there really are 3 big weighted tumblers a-spinning. They come to rest through a random application of magnetic braking. The arrangement of payoff lines is a colorful sticker on the tumbler, that shows through a window. If all 3 tumblers happen to show their stickers in a particular way, I win. I have noticed that the "tumbler-stopping-window-showing" arc on the tumbler is quite small. Math people could calculate it in radians. I think it has gotten smaller from what I remember 35 years ago when I was a kid and it was more mechanical than electronic. Oh for the good old days, when it was probably rigged in the old-fashioned way, say weighted tumblers.
 
OK, sorry, now I'm thinking--why do these machines still have the handles? The old Model T Ford.. crank it by hand.. I bet there are old-timers that wouldn't get the same thrill out of spinning the wheels of fortune if all they had to do was push a button. Step right up, crank the handle (complete with nice cranking sound) and where she stops, nobody knows!
 
BPScooter said:
OK, sorry, now I'm thinking--why do these machines still have the handles? The old Model T Ford.. crank it by hand.. I bet there are old-timers that wouldn't get the same thrill out of spinning the wheels of fortune if all they had to do was push a button. Step right up, crank the handle (complete with nice cranking sound) and where she stops, nobody knows!
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Asthetics, as all slot machines are now based off of eletrical random number generators the handle like the wheels themselves are entirely irrelevent to the functioning of the machine. BUt people are reluctant to have too much visual change in their gambling experiance.

Still gambleing and expecting to win, except in events that do have have a non random historical element in it like blackjack when card counting or sports betting, is not logical. That doesn't mean gambleing is for idiots, just that anyone who plays random games and expects to get an advantage is fooling themselves.

I have heard that some video poker if played right can result in a player advantage, not sure if this is true.
 
An owner of a vending machine business once lent me a "Joker Poker" video game to play around with. The payoff rate could be adjusted from 150% down to 50%. A dishonest bar owner could introduce the game with a high payoff rate and gradually reduce it. In behavior analysis, this is known as "leaning out the ratio" and is how one can get a rat to press a lever hundreds of times for .045 g of food.
These illegal games have been replaced in NY by a state run Lotto-like game, known jokingly as "electronic crack" in bars. The payoff rate ranges from 50% to slightly higher.
 
I don't know about a tax on idiots but there is a expression that I've often heard around here that "gambling is a tax on people who don't understand the laws of probability".

I think several posts in this thread demonstrate this rather well :D
 
MilwaukeeMike said:
Even with games like slots you can use some strategy. This would be hard for most people to do, but if you go into a casino and sit and watch how long it takes someone to win on a given slot, do this over and over again, you can potentially calculate in your head what the odds are on that machine. Once you know the odds on that machine, all you need to do is sit there and wait for somebody to spend some time on there without winning. Once they leave you sit down play a couple of games and win. So even the games that seem mindless, can be had with a little strategy.:)
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First of all, in order to calculate the odds of a particular machine using observation only would take literally decades. The variance is so high on slot machines that you would have to continually watch every pull for decades and decades. Second, once you know the odds on a particular machine, you can do nothing to improve your chance of winning including watching other people win or lose for extended periods.

Let's say we have two identical, very simple slot machines that have only one type of win: It costs $1 per play, and they pay out $900 on a win. The machines are programmed to have a 1/1000 chance to payback each play. You know that these machines have a 90% payback rate because there is a sign above them advertising this fact. (In Las Vegas, at least, there is a legal requirement that any sign indicating a given a percentage payback to be accurate.) You watch two players play these two machines for 20 hours. The left machine has paid out 15 times! The right machine has never paid out. Both players get up and leave at the same time. You decide that you want to play.

Q: Which machine should you sit at, right or left?
A: It doesn't matter at all. There is no more expected value per play for either the left machine or the right machine. Your expected value for each play is -10 cents on both machines.
 
I own two IGT slots that came out of Harrah's in Vegas - they're in my house in my bar, just for fun / decoration. I've gone through the manuals and do all the servicing on them myself (clearing coin jams etc...) - they are a feat of engineering, but these modern slots are really just a computer with reels instead of a CRT.

On the comment about video poker, with perfect strategy, and with proper game selection, yes, some games are as high as .7% in favour of the player. When you combine this edge with comps for play (free food, rooms, cashback etc...) there are definitely full-time professional video poker players. However - you need a massive bankroll to do this - because the house edge assumes you hit the top prize (a natural royal flush on a deuces wild machine for example) - and that happens extremely rarely. If you read 'How to make $100,000 a year as a professional gambler' by David Sklansky, he talks about video poker professionals and video poker teams (who take over a bank of progressive machines when the jackpot is high enough to justify it) but also explains their bankroll management. Seems like a pretty unfun way to grind out a living...

-AH.
 
[I've only glanced at this thread since first posting... but something occured to me].... I have recently learned that many cruise ships have casinos. I wonder if many of you who are booked on the "Amazing Cruise" will invade the on board casino while in the Bermuda Triangle to debate the fine points of risk, house odds and slot machine programming. If you do, post pictures!
 
teddosan said:
First of all, in order to calculate the odds of a particular machine using observation only would take literally decades. The variance is so high on slot machines that you would have to continually watch every pull for decades and decades. Second, once you know the odds on a particular machine, you can do nothing to improve your chance of winning including watching other people win or lose for extended periods.

Let's say we have two identical, very simple slot machines that have only one type of win: It costs $1 per play, and they pay out $900 on a win. The machines are programmed to have a 1/1000 chance to payback each play. You know that these machines have a 90% payback rate because there is a sign above them advertising this fact. (In Las Vegas, at least, there is a legal requirement that any sign indicating a given a percentage payback to be accurate.) You watch two players play these two machines for 20 hours. The left machine has paid out 15 times! The right machine has never paid out. Both players get up and leave at the same time. You decide that you want to play.

Q: Which machine should you sit at, right or left?
A: It doesn't matter at all. There is no more expected value per play for either the left machine or the right machine. Your expected value for each play is -10 cents on both machines.
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completely true....but how do these machinese pay out? if it's by cash, then surely there would be a point for which the machine had insufficient funds to cover a jackpot. How does this effect things?
 
I think MilwaukeeMike might be confused by the description of how these machines are programmed.

They are not programmed to watch previous results, and adjust the payout so it remains at 0.90, or whatever. If that was the case, his strategy would work. No, they are programmed with random numbers so that the payout over time works out to 0.90, or whatever. Which is exactly how a roulette wheel works. Trust me. The machines are very well tested to ensure that no one can use a strategy to make a profit from them. Mike, your idea is wrong.
 
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