Loose Change

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Uh, yes they do. Roughly, and within the context of this discussion. Probability is the chance that a particular event will occur. Odds are "the ratio of the probability of one event to that of an alternative event." When you're discussing the likelihood of a given event occurring, as opposed to it not occurring, probability and odds are for all practical purposes the same thing. The two terms diverge when you start to consider more than two possible outcomes.

For example, the probability of rolling any given number present on a six-sided die is 1/6 (or 16.667%). The odds of rolling that given side (say 2), as opposed to not rolling it (not 2), is [1/6 : 5/6], which is more conveniently expressed as 1:5.

By contrast, the odds of rolling 2 as opposed to rolling, say, 1 is [1/6 : 1/6] i.e. 1:1. The odds are different, even though the probabilities aren't. But that's not what we're talking about, since diggingdeeper and delphi_ote were explicitly talking about the probability of a given event occurring as opposed to it not occurring.

Gee, sorry to have started that one off!

I understood the point that D was trying to make, I only meant to say that probabilities is not a measurement as he had stated but a state where the odds are a measurement.
I am not a mathmatician, but i am sure there are plenty and I would like to be corrected if I am wrong with the following analogy:

Numbers are not a measurement
a ratio is.

probabilities are not a measurement
odds are.
 
I'm sorry I lost you, David.
Don't worry, you didn't lose me. On the contrary, now I've got you dialed in perfectly. You are a genuine, bona fide, professional conspiracy theorist. Hot dang. Please continue and please do start threads on those other conspiracies.
 
You know, I just spent a couple of hours reading through the entire thread.
Congrats. It's certainly a long one.

First of all, while I do appreciate some of the conversations on the site, I was pretty disappointed with the majority of the debate between fellow skeptics.

I must say, I find the tone of many to be condescending. If not at first, it sure gets there pretty quickly. I understand that that is part of human nature but very few of the many who participate as such will admit it (I am not leaving myself out of that equation either).

Without going into agreement with Alex’s' views or not, I am going to observe that he apologized when he felt he was wrong, he admitted that he had been mistaken when he felt so and managed for the most part to not be drawn into what I considered to be baiting from some as well as some attempts to intellectually bully him.
I'm not making excuses, but in my few years here, I've engaged in and lurked over numerous discussions of these types. It all pretty much comes down to a simple request: please show evidence. Not evidence against something, but evidence for it. Of course, debunking the "whatabouts" (as in "Well, whatabout this? Whatabout that?) that predominate in, say, the moon landing hoax debates can be jolly fun, but it ultimately gets frustrating in that it seems sometimes so many are ready to believe the most fanciful things rather than the simple. So I can see where long-time contributers here might be a bit testy when yet another Dread Pirate Conspiracy comes along like clockwork and, once again, it lacks proof.

If you propose that the destruction of 9/11/2001 was due to something other than what is commonly accepted, you must prove it, not just play at poking holes in other theories.

...I get what Alex was feeling for the most part though I do not necessarily agree with all of it but why should it be unthinkable that our, or any other government should lie to us when we know for a fact it has happened in the past?
Who says anything is "unthinkable?" I don't. But that's hardly enough to hang one's hat on, much less a series of events such as what occurred on 9/11.

What has happened that would dissuade them from that practice? His idea that it might be a Psy-op is not totally out of hand especially since it is a military principle that wars should be fought using these types of methods more and more in the future.
"Might be?" As Ronald Reagan said, "There you go again." Please present your proof.

If 911 is truly an extraordinary event in world history, does it not deserve exploring honestly the extraordinary context and possible beginnings it might have had? if not, why not?
Calling something an "extraordinary" event colors it with dramatic overtones that may impede rational discussion.

As I suggested earlier in the thread, it ended up being catastrophic, but not so much as perhaps intended. Fanatics, no matter their origins, will strike out in unconventional ways in order to promote their cause. If 9/11 hadn't happened, something like it would've (as it did prior) eventually, and likely will again. (It could be argued that such events are ongoing, though some manage to be more headline-worthy than others, making 9/11 less "extraordinary" when viewed within the overall narrative.) In that way, the WTC destruction wasn't "extraordinary," except that it was visually spectacular and witnessed by so many, therefore making a significant impression.
 
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Yes, the World Trade Center building 7 imploded symmetrically in 6.6 seconds due to fire, the magic bullet theory is valid, and Timothy McVeigh acted alone. Join me in a rousing chorus of "Proud to be an American". At least I know I'm free...
You believe in a JFK conspiracy? Okay...
 
probabilities are not a measurement
odds are.
Don't worry about starting this discussion. So far, I think it's been constructive.

In a sense, you're close to the right idea in your post. While it's exactly right, but you seem to have a good intuitive understanding of something that confuses mathematicians. The problem is that probability is a hard term to define, even for experts. The confusing part about it comes in with the two schools of thought I mentioned in my previous post. In the more traditional school that tends to use the term "odds," the terms "probability" and "odds" both refer to an actual measurement of frequency.

In the Bayesian school of thinking, probability means something a little more abstract. Probability isn't necessarily a measurement in this school of thought. It's something you estimate based on what you measure. This school tends to view probability more in the way I did in my first post (i.e. it's a measure of our uncertainty about an event.)

Mind you, I'm not saying probability is an ambiguous concept nobody can define. There are two very precise mathematical definitions, and both result in the same formulas. No matter how you choose to think about it, you end up with the same equations. Both schools would agree that the probability that particular passport fell out of that particular plane and landed on that particular sidewalk is equal to one, because we observed that it happened and it is now a certainty. You just have to be careful that you don't confuse the two definitions when you're around pedantic mathematicians.

I hope that clarifies things a bit.
 
"Might be?" As Ronald Reagan said, "There you go again." Please present your proof.

Thanks for your comments, there is a disclaimer in the following documented link, but still the study was designed to comply with a directive from the chief of staff of the Air Force... (or so it claims...)

I should have said in my original post ..evolving military principles.
There is quite alot more on this subject, after you finish this if you would like some more let me know.
Thanks again.

http://www.au.af.mil/au/2025/volume3/chap03/v3c3-1htm
 
I hope that clarifies things a bit

Oh sure, whoever Bayesian is...LOL I don't know though, it would seem to me that a probability would nor become anything without measuring it first, so it itself would not be considered a measurement.

I totally understood what you menat in the first place, mine was only a semantical point.
 
Reginad,
I just tried to go to that link that I posted to you. and what do you know....you can no longer go there. The good news is, I have the hard copy and would be more the happy to send it to you a copy if you like
 
Oh sure, whoever Bayesian is...LOL
Thomasbayes.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Bayes
Now you know! :D
I don't know though, it would seem to me that a probability would nor become anything without measuring it first, so it itself would not be considered a measurement.
Are you trying to say that you think the process of measurement is estimating some underlying true principle? If so, you're agreeing with the Bayesian camp. If not, I'll apologize in advance for misunderstanding and ask if you can clarify.
I totally understood what you menat in the first place, mine was only a semantical point.
I understood what you meant earlier, too, and I'm also making a semantic point. It's a semantic point that happens to be very important, though.
 
Your use of the phase 'Lets Roll' in this contexts shows that you either do not believe that the person who said that phrase ever existed or you are making fun of the victims of 911.

It doesn't say much for you as a person either way.

I don't know if the phrase was uttered by Todd Beamer or not. I do know that it is the battle cry of an unjust war on false pretenses that is killing thousands of US soldiers and tens of thousands of innocent civilians. I was mocking it on that basis. In any event, you're right, it was inappropriate. I apologize. I'm not here to disparage the memory of 9/11 victims, in fact, I'm trying to inform others of the truth of their demise.

Thankfully, my personhood isn't dependent upon your opinion of me. I'm pretty confident that I care a whole hell of a lot more than most people around me about what is going on in the world today.
 
P.S. Arguing with me about the theory of probability and statistics is suicide. Please don't do it. Think of your loved ones.

Yes, you're obviously way too intelligent for me. I'll spare you so that you may conserve your energy debunking bigfoot photos, genius.
 
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Don't worry, you didn't lose me. On the contrary, now I've got you dialed in perfectly. You are a genuine, bona fide, professional conspiracy theorist. Hot dang. Please continue and please do start threads on those other conspiracies.

Oh yes! I'm officially a conspiracy theorist, and everybody knows that conspiracy theorists are nutty and unstable. Unless of course the conspiracy theories are official, and the theorists are you. Hey, I think I've got you figured out. You're one of those conspiracy theory debunkers, aren't you? The sort of statist who likes to teabag the government as it lies to you.
 
Are you trying to say that you think the process of measurement is estimating some underlying true principle? If so, you're agreeing with the Bayesian camp. If not, I'll apologize in advance for misunderstanding and ask if you can clarify.

Yep, exactly. But does that mean that I have to start wearing that funny garb??? And I guess that means that I am talking with different language...OH, I think I may have just joined a ..........

Seriously though are the 2 schools of thought so different that there is no translating one to the other??
 
Oh yes! I'm officially a conspiracy theorist, and everybody knows that conspiracy theorists are nutty and unstable. Unless of course the conspiracy theories are official, and the theorists are you. Hey, I think I've got you figured out. You're one of those conspiracy theory debunkers, aren't you? The sort of statist who likes to teabag the government as it lies to you.

Will you also stop using the word teabag as a verb.
 
Oh yes! I'm officially a conspiracy theorist, and everybody knows that conspiracy theorists are nutty and unstable.
Not necessarily. Some are merely missguided and/or missinformed.
Unless of course the conspiracy theories are official, and the theorists are you.
Interesting. Which conspiracy theory are you talking about?
Hey, I think I've got you figured out. You're one of those conspiracy theory debunkers, aren't you? The sort of statist who likes to teabag the government as it lies to you.
As far as I know my goverment hasn't lied to me about the terrorist attacks on 9/11. You know... when the (mostly) Saudi Nationals crashed passanger jets into WTC and the Pentagon.

Incidently, when I saw the second plane crash into the building, I said out loud:
Someone is going to try to blame this on the US goverment.

no no don't worry I won't apply for the million dollars :D
 
Yep, exactly. But does that mean that I have to start wearing that funny garb???
Funny garb? C'mon! I hear the 1750's are the new '60's!:p
Seriously though are the 2 schools of thought so different that there is no translating one to the other??
It's mostly just a difference of philosophy, and these days everyone but statisticians pretty much agrees that they're just two different ways to view essentially the same thing. Why should we worry about it, because all the maths work out the same either way you look at it?

Ironic fact: Bayes himself was probably a frequentist!

The main problem is just that you tend to run into confusion of the sort we had earlier in this thread when people start talking about the definition of probability.

Another problem is that frequentists tend to reject some of the things Bayesians do as unscientific. Unfortunately for the frequentists, a lot of those things that annoy them turn out to be useful and intuitive.

For example, imagine someone asked the question "Given a choice of two things (let's call them A and B) which you know absolutely nothing about, what is the probability that A will be chosen?" A Bayesian would say something like, "Since I don't have any other information, I'll do my best and guess 50%." A frequentist, on the other hand, would say, "This isn't a proper experiment. It's gibberish! I can't assign a probability at all. It would mean nothing in this context."
 
If you propose that the destruction of 9/11/2001 was due to something other than what is commonly accepted, you must prove it, not just play at poking holes in other theories.

That seems perfectly reasonable but unfortunately it isn't. The US Government's theories are no more valid than the theories of others because they are offered from a position of authority. You're also assuming that what is "commonly accepted" is reasonable, which isn't true either. In this case, I'm going to have to turn your little argument on its ear and insist that you provide me evidence for the 9/11 Commission's account of how WTC 7, a 47-story steel skyscraper, collapsed in a spectacular 6.6 second near-free-fall symmetrical fashion. Granted this might be difficult, as an explanation for why this building fell was not offered in the 9/11 Commission report, which I like to refer to as the government's "official conspiracy theory". I'm sure you'll give it the college try though. I've already seen the firefighter's testimony, the photographic evidence, the video of fires and the collapse, and I've read the NIST report ("the best hypothesis has only a low probability of occurence").

I accept the possibility of being convinced. I'm not convinced. In all probability you nor anyone here are capable of convincing me.
 
For example, imagine someone asked the question "Given a choice of two things (let's call them A and B) which you know absolutely nothing about, what is the probability that A will be chosen?" A Bayesian would say something like, "Since I don't have any other information, I'll do my best and guess 50%." A frequentist, on the other hand, would say, "This isn't a proper experiment. It's gibberish! I can't assign a probability at all. It would mean nothing in this context."

Just a bit before I go sleepy.

So, if the above is what a frequentist would say (I am assuming you are one of them) Then, what would be the minimum acceptable for them to have considered that an experiment?? Would it have had to be 2 choices between A&B???
And,


Why should we worry about it, because all the maths work out the same either way you look at it?

Wouldn't the difference in philosophy prohibit them from coming to the same answer because the frequentist would not consider the same problem in the case you gave ??
Thanks for your patience
 
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