Merged 2026 Mid-Term election outcomes: US Congress

[Brainster]

Another good poll for Talarico out, showing him with a 3-point lead over Paxton.

A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll finds 42% of Texas voters preferring Democrat James Talarico and 39% planning to vote for Republican Ken Paxton in the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas, with the remaining 3% opting for Libertarian Ted Brown and 14% expressing no preference. The poll found Republican candidates leading by single digits in the other major statewide races included in the survey, amidst persistent negative views of the economy and continued opposition to the construction of data centers.

Given that Paxton is well-known to Texas voters, his inability to crack 40% in that poll does not bode well for him.

Looking beneath the topline of James Talarico’s 42% to 39% lead over Ken Paxton in the poll, Talarico’s share of the Democratic vote, 91%, is larger than the 79% of Republicans who expressed their commitment to Paxton. Among independents, 37% prefer Talarico compared to 11% who prefer Paxton, with a plurality, 43%, expressing no preference and 9% preferring either Libertarian Ted Brown (5%) or an unspecified “someone else” (4%).

What they fail to mention there is the vote for each candidate from members of the opposing party. Talarico attracts 5% of GOP voters and Paxton gets:

0% of Democrats.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

I think the results vs the polling in the Wisconsin Governor's primary as well as the Michigan Senate primary raise some concerns that the pollsters may have bought the usual political argument that the youth vote is going to come out en masse.

So no evidence then.

 

[Brainster]

So no evidence then.

Hopium is the new term of art.

 

[Resume]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2093016957020787183

Send me my ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ ballot, you cheating, lying mother ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊.

 

[Trebuchet]

The SCROTUS has paused a previous court's ruling blocking Trump's executive order. It's not final and another ruling blocking USPS from implementing it's own new rule remains, but it's good evidence of how they will rule in any final case. From SCOTUSblog:

The Supreme Court on Monday afternoon cleared the way for the Trump administration to begin implementing an executive order, signed by President Donald Trump earlier this year, that imposes restrictions on mail-in voting. The court paused an injunction by a federal judge in Boston that had barred the federal government from applying provisions of that executive order in the November elections to 23 states (along with the District of Columbia) challenging their legality.

A separate ruling by the same judge, in a case filed by a different set of plaintiffs, temporarily prohibits the U.S. Postal Service from implementing one provision of the executive order anywhere in the United States. That ruling remains in effect, at least for now.

In its 10-page, unsigned opinion, the majority said that it was too soon for courts to consider the states’ challenge because the order has not yet been carried out – which means that the states have not suffered the kind of injury that allows their lawsuit to move forward.

Here's a prediction: The US Senate on January 4, 2027, will have about 50 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and about five seats unfilled because of lawsuits, recounts, challenges, and the actions of Trump and Republican legislatures.

 

[kookbreaker]

Here we go. Texas has purged over 1 million from voter rolls.

Texas Has Suspended More Than 1 Million Voters Ahead of Senate Race

If you’re one of the people who had their voter registration suspended, there’s still time to fix it.

newrepublic.com

 

[Donal]

As much as people talking about "hanging chads", it was the voter role purges that stole Florida in 2000.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

As much as people talking about "hanging chads", it was the voter role purges that stole Florida in 2000.

And it was taking that strategy national that stole 2004, 2016 and probably 2024.

 

[Brainster]

Here's some interesting speculation on how the Democrats could take control by just getting to 50 seats on election day:

The bet on control is more complicated than you might think. Democrats need 51 seats, Republicans just 50. But the problem is not election results, it is Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski. In my view, Murkowski is a strong possibility to switch sides if the Democrats get to 50 seats (or more). She has already admitted to thinking about it. If she does, there is the question of timing. Murkowski likely won’t switch without a good deal and that could take time.

While I think Talarico and El-Sayed have a decent chance, a little extra cushion could be useful.

 

[PitPat]

Here's some interesting speculation on how the Democrats could take control by just getting to 50 seats on election day:



While I think Talarico and El-Sayed have a decent chance, a little extra cushion could be useful.

Unfortunately DSA won the FL Senate candidacy, that could have been a competitive seat I think. Now, not so much. But I can totally see a Dem Senate majority - I think the chances will increase as November nears.

 

[Brainster]

Unfortunately DSA won the FL Senate candidacy, that could have been a competitive seat I think. Now, not so much. But I can totally see a Dem Senate majority - I think the chances will increase as November nears.

The fact that the DSA candidate won reflects the state of the Democratic Party in Florida; they're a complete mess. Iowa, on the other hand, could be up for grabs.

 

[Trebuchet]

As much as people talking about "hanging chads", it was the voter role purges that stole Florida in 2000.

You're forgetting the Supreme Court! And Butterfly Ballots. And....

 

[Armitage72]

I just saw a local political ad (NY) criticizing a member of Congress up for reelection for siding with "them", while showing photos of Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Very subtle.

 

[Orphia Nay]

According to Google AI, Liberty Vote (formerly Dominion) serves over 25% of registered voters over 27 states and is owned by former Republican election official Scott Leiendecker. After buying Dominion he rebranded to Liberty Vote and adopted conservative election integrity language.

ES&S controls 50% of US election equipment market. Hart Intercivic controls 15%. Both have ties to Republicans.

I'm not saying there is evidence of vote manipulation. But I am saying that this President, his administration, and the Republican party in general seem to be willing to do just about anything to stay in power. Why wouldn't this be another tool in their tool kit? Maybe this time around Trump doesn't have to call and try to get Georgia to find him more votes, the machines can just flip 6,000 votes.

This is important and chilling information.

Considering Trump keeps ranting about 'rigged' elections. We all know he accuses others of what he's doing himself.

 

[jimbob]

This is important and chilling information.

Considering Trump keeps ranting about 'rigged' elections. We all know he accuses others of what he's doing himself.

There is a reason why I don't want us to move away from pencil and paper ballots

 

[Trebuchet]

Our state used paper ballots exclusively. They send them to us in the mail, we mark them (with a pen, not a pencil), and mail them back.

 

[TragicMonkey]

Our state used paper ballots exclusively. They send them to us in the mail, we mark them (with a pen, not a pencil), and mail them back.

That --somehow-- is communism!

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

There is a reason why I don't want us to move away from pencil and paper ballots

And also why I don't want to move away from hand counting those ballots. Yes it's fallible, but it's also much, much harder to game.

 

[Trebuchet]

And also why I don't want to move away from hand counting those ballots. Yes it's fallible, but it's also much, much harder to game.

Hand counting is impracticle. And takes forever. Trump, of course, wants paper ballots hand counted and results with an hour.

 

[TragicMonkey]

Hand counting is impracticle. And takes forever. Trump, of course, wants paper ballots hand counted and results with an hour.

Counting is much faster if you don't, you know, count all of them, just a select few.