How do we know a pandemic's over?

[The Atheist]

"An endemic disease always has a steady, predictable number of people or animals getting sick"

Does this describe Covid today?

Deceitful snip there.

The full paragraph states:

In epidemiology, an infection is said to be endemic in a specific population or populated place when that infection is constantly present, or maintained at a baseline level, without extra infections being brought into the group as a result of travel or similar means.

That describes covid exactly.

"an epidemic occurring on a scale that crosses international boundaries, usually affecting people on a worldwide scale"

Does this describe Covid today?

Nope. As with influenza, we don't have a pandemic every year, it just goes around.

Influenza and covid are now exactly equivalent in profile of infections although covid is not far less serious than 'flu. Only the very old are dying of covid, and that isn't the case with 'flu. (or RSV, for that matter)

Delayed survey suggests more than 400,000 Kiwis may have had Long Covid (Long Covid Support, Mar 17, 2026)

Irrelevant nonsense, which is why the Health Ministry hasn't got it's panties in a bunch, but the poor dears at "Long Covid NZ" have.

From their own report:

The condition exists on a spectrum — from ongoing but manageable symptoms to severe disability affecting work, family life and daily self-care.

A spectrum, how quaint. Next it'll be the MMR vaccine to blame. Or maybe we can just download long covid sufferers into the wonderful new "neurodivergent" category. I'm sure I can find a few more to add in if you keep typing long enough.

Self-described symptoms are so reliable, and the obvious link to the equally-bollocks ME/CFS is perfect.

I'm sure that like most other viral diseases, some people have ongoing symptoms. The vast majority of people on the "spectrum" just need to harden the ◊◊◊◊ up.

Please go on and explain how serious is it all is while the rest of the world worries about far more important things.

 

[dann]

"Irrelevant nonsense" could be used as the headline for most of The Atheist's posts about the pandemic, which always rely on sarcasm because he neither understands nor cares that he doesn't understand what he is talking about. It's like listening to the current U.S. president talking about windmills.

The Atheist describes the condition Long Covid (or PASC), which exists on a spectrum from "manageable symptoms to severe disability," as "quaint" as if diseases existing on a spectrum* were anything new (or quaint) in the science of medicine, he calls the people at Long Covid Support Aotearoa "poor dears," because of course he does, while ignoring that their article was based on and linked to data from the Ministry of Health:

The Ministry of Health has today released past national survey data showing the scale of Long Covid in New Zealand.

And he calls the disease itself equivalent to one of the most persistent myths of the anti-vaxxers because ... yes, you guessed it, of course he does.

Nobody has claimed that "self-described symptoms are so reliable." Like in the case of most other diseases, they are nevertheless the first thing doctors ask their patients about unless the disease is as obvious as a broken leg, and even then a doctor may ask about symptoms to establish if e.g. nerves have been damaged. So "self-described symptoms" are neither irrelevant nor nonsense in medicine, and when The Atheist claims that "the obvious link to the equally-bollocks ME/CFS is perfect," he is just repeating what he has been claiming for years, because or course he is. Wikipedia may state that "ME/CFS is a biological disease, not a psychological condition,[36][12] and is not due to deconditioning[36][13]," and link to relevant sources, but The Atheist doesn't case because of course he doesn't.

Finally, The Atheist claims that Long Covid is just "like most other viral diseases," because of course he does. After all he has been doing it since at least 2022 - except when he claimed that C19 was much milder than other viral diseases like the flu, which he will probably continue to do for the rest of his life.

It is almost not worth mentioning that The Atheist ignores post 1,557 entirely, a response to one of his posts, because of course he does.
The Atheist, spreading disinformation about SARS-CoV-2 since (at least) 2022!

- - - -

* I googled "well-known diseases that exist on a spectrum" and got eight examples:

Several well-known diseases and conditions are classified as "spectrum disorders" because they do not present as a single, uniform set of symptoms, but rather as a wide range of severity, characteristics, and functional abilities.
Here are some of the most prominent examples:
1. Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD)
2. Schizophrenia Spectrum
3. Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders (FASD)
4. Mood Spectrum Disorders (Depression/Bipolar)
5. Obsessive-Compulsive Spectrum Disorders
6. Hypermobility Spectrum Disorder (HSD)
7. Parkinson's Disease Spectrum
8. PIK3CA-Related Overgrowth Spectrum (PROS)

It is noticeable that four of those spectrum disorders are mainly physiological, and most of the others have (nowadays) fairly well-known genetic components.

 

[icerat]

Deceitful snip there.

The full paragraph states:

In epidemiology, an infection is said to be endemic in a specific population or populated place when that infection is constantly present, or maintained at a baseline level, without extra infections being brought into the group as a result of travel or similar means.

That describes covid exactly.

Not trying to deceive at all. Highlighting the key part again -
always has a steady, predictable number of people

Does this describe covid?

Nope. As with influenza, we don't have a pandemic every year, it just goes around.

Ok, lets take a step back. Also from Wikipedia -

"Epidemic refers to an increase, often sudden, in the number of cases of a disease above what is normally expected in that population in that area."

Does this happen with Covid?

 

[The Atheist]

Not trying to deceive at all. Highlighting the key part again -
always has a steady, predictable number of people

Does this describe covid?

No, but neither does it describe influenza. It's a cake and eat it situation - either influenza is a constant pandemic or covid isn't.

You choose.

Ok, lets take a step back. Also from Wikipedia -

"Epidemic refers to an increase, often sudden, in the number of cases of a disease above what is normally expected in that population in that area."

Does this happen with Covid?

Again, exactly like 'flu, of course it does.

I'm quite happy to side with people who know what they're talking about rather than some bloke on the internet, and this sums it up nicely:

Infection is still happening all the time. That marks it as endemic. The shift from pandemic to endemic is really marked by time and prevalence. The first SARS-CoV [virus] appeared in 2003 and now has not been seen for decades, so it was a pandemic, but never became endemic. SARS-CoV-2 seems like it is here to stay, right now. That makes it endemic.

​

Is COVID-19 Still a Pandemic?

Or is it becoming an endemic disease? A BU virologist, epidemiologist, and physician reflect on the status of the virus as the CDC cuts isolation period to 24 hours

www.bu.edu

Note that that was written almost exactly two years ago. Trying to call it a pandemic in 2026 is plain stupid.

 

[icerat]

No, but neither does it describe influenza. It's a cake and eat it situation - either influenza is a constant pandemic or covid isn't.

You choose.

That's incorrect. Flu waves are highly seasonal and highly predictable in timing. The tropic is a bit different with a more "steady state" level.

Covid has significant waves with the timing affected significantly more by mutations, though there are "seasonal" effecyts as well.

Honestly, my position is that Covid doesn't really fit into our usual definitions of these words. If anything it's an "endemic pandemic" which frankly isn't a particular useful term.

 

[The Atheist]

That's incorrect. Flu waves are highly seasonal and highly predictable in timing. The tropic is a bit different with a more "steady state"

How many years or decades after 1918 did influenza become predictable?

Also, the sub-clade K influenza shocked a lot of doctors last year by not sticking to the program.

 

[gabeygoat]

I only completed a couple years of Public Health before going into medical coding, but it seems almost defintionally endemic.

 

[icerat]

I only completed a couple years of Public Health before going into medical coding, but it seems almost defintionally endemic.

Prior to Covid, endemic meant there was a fairly steady, predictable number of cases, not unpredicatable waves. Now we effectively have "endemic epidemic".

How many years or decades after 1918 did influenza become predictable?

Essentially within about 3 years it was back to Winter seasonality

Also, the sub-clade K influenza shocked a lot of doctors last year by not sticking to the program.

It still mostly stuck to the seasonality, just began a little earlier (and severity is a different part of the equation). Covid gets waves all year around, and far less predictable.

The big unpredictable waves of Covid are epidemic like, and this is occurring globally, thus global epidemic = pandemic.
This happens with influenza too, with endemic influenza bursting into sporadic epidemics which can be pandemics. The difference with Covid is this behaviour is essentially permanent.

This is new. It is a "forever pandemic", but that's not a useful term since we also equate pandemic with "response" and "temporary". The definition doesn't include that, but it's the way governments (and people) interpret it.

Covid doesn't fit into our normal usage of endemic, epidemic, and pandemic.

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

"Everybody's dead."?

 

[SteveAitch]

"Everybody's dead."?

Harrumph...

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Harrumph...

Sorry, I was a cardiac ward when you posted that.

 

[SteveAitch]

Sorry, I was a cardiac ward when you posted that.

Fair enough. I think that counts as a 10 on the Reasons scale.
Assuming you were in a bed and not sweeping the carpets and so on.

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

"I was IN a cardiac ward" My bad.

 

[dann]

New COVID variant with immune escape potential confirmed in US, 22 other countries (CIDRAP, Mar 23, 2026)
The highly mutated SARS-CoV-2 BA.3.2 variant, which has been reported by at least 23 countries as of February 11, has been detected in nasal swabs collected from four US travelers, clinical samples from five patients, three airplane wastewater samples, and 132 wastewater surveillance samples from 25 states, per a studypublished last week in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

 

[dann]

Interesting graphs from San Diego County:

Respiratory Viruses Data and Reports (April 22, 2026)
San Diego County Respiratory Virus Surveillance
Counts by Episode Week

Strong correlation between influenza and RSV. They both peaked in early February, 2026 (but RSV much lower; notice the Y axis).
However, they don't correlate at all with COVID-19, which peaked in late summer–early autumn '25.

 

[marting]

Interesting graphs from San Diego County:

Strong correlation between influenza and RSV. They both peaked in early February, 2026 (but RSV much lower; notice the Y axis).
However, they don't correlate at all with COVID-19, which peaked in late summer–early autumn '25.

Yeah, odd. Same the year before with a late summer C19 peak but low winter activity. There was also a late summer C19 peak in 2023 and a similar winter peak. But not the last two winters while C19 had late summer peaks and Flu had winter peaks in each of these 3 years.

 

[dann]

:

Covid-19 cases in Singapore rise to 12,700; CDA monitoring increase in infections (Strait Times, May 21-22, 2026)
SINGAPORE – The number of Covid-19 cases rose to 12,700 in the week of May 10 to May 16, compared with 8,000 in the previous week, said the Communicable Diseases Agency (CDA).
It added in a statement on May 21 that the average number of daily Covid-19 hospitalisations rose from 56 to 73 during the same period, with one case in the intensive care unit daily on average.

:

Siebe on X, May 25, 2026
Lowest corona level ever measured in sewage water (15)!
Good news, and also some bad news

looks more like than , but with a slight uptick this week (see graphs in link):

SARS-COV-2 status in wastewater as of 27.05.2026 (SSI.dk)
In week 21 (May 18 - May 24) the national SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater, indicating the amount of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in the population, is at a very low level.

 

[dann]

:
The lowest level of wastewater measures of SARS-CoV-2 since they began:
National spildevandsovervågning af SARS-CoV-2 (SSI.dk, June 10, 2026)
Also the lowest number of C19 hospitalizations and deaths.
As for the latter, in 2026, so far (June 9):
Jan: 63
Feb: 37
Mar: 17
April: 5
May: 2
June: 1

 

[dann]

See also in the other thread:

Covid levels at lowest since 2020.

Let's celebrate the lowest Covid levels recorded since the pandemic started

There is hardly any Covid in the community, hardly anyone is being hospitalised with Covid and thankfully it is contributing to very few deaths. This is a good thing.

christinapagel.substack.com

 

[dann]

:

Mike Hoerger on X, June 12, 2026
The PMC county-level COVlD map has been updated w/today's CDC data.
Very High
Guam
Southeast Idaho
Southeast Alabama
Lorain, Ohio
Waldoboro, Maine

High
Waco, Texas
Lexington, Kentucky
Lancaster, Pennsylvania

We've posted Monday's report early.