Merged 2026 Mid-Term election outcomes: US Congress

[Regnad Kcin]

Republicans giddily pulled the lever, twice, for a lifelong criminal conman, failed businessman, adjudicated rapist, racist, convicted felon. Think they're suddenly going to waffle when it comes to a Texas-shaped chip off the ol' block?

Next to be spotted: bumper stickers reading "Paxton - President - 2028."

 

[Donal]

I'd say Ohio and Iowa are both more likely than Texas. Democrats might actually win the governorship in both of those states as well.

 

[Segnosaur]

And the Democrats chances of taking over the Senate just got a little better with what happened in Texas.
Comyn would have been a shooin, but now it;s a real fight with the baggage loaded Paxton. And I have a feeling even more crap about Paxton is going to come in light before NOvember.

Even if Paxton does win the senate seat, there are two problems for the republicans.

- Texas is a very expensive state to campaign in
- Paxton is apparently not a good fundraiser

What this means is that because the campaign between Talerico and Paxton will be closer than between Talerico and Cornyn, republicans as a whole will have to spend more money campaigning in the state to shore up Paxton. (Plus, they might have to spend money to support house congressional candidates who might be affected by the association with Paxton.)

That means less money for the republicans to spend on other congressional races. Less money to spend to prop up Susan collins in Maine. Less money to spend to support Dan Sullivan in Alaska.

 

[Brainster]

I see a bunch of the MAGA types are crowing about the defeat of Cornyn. Kind of amusing that the only "wins" for Trump in a long time have come against other Republicans.

 

[kookbreaker]

I see a bunch of the MAGA types are crowing about the defeat of Cornyn. Kind of amusing that the only "wins" for Trump in a long time have come against other Republicans.

Isn't there a thing where movements or rebellions that are failing start to attack themselves so they can get any sort of victory?

 

[Segnosaur]

I'd say Ohio and Iowa are both more likely than Texas. Democrats might actually win the governorship in both of those states as well.

Keep in mind that Texas, Ohio and Iowa all supported Trump about the same in the 2024 election (there was only about a 1% difference in support for Trump in the 3 states.)

When it comes to polling:
- Iowa seems to be a statistical tie (slight advantage for the democrats).
- Ohio has a slight edge for the republicans.
- Texas seems to be "all over" the place, with some polls showing Talerico ahead, others showing Paxton ahead. But in the aggregate, the Democrats are ahead.

See: https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/senate/2026/toss-up

 

[Brainster]

Isn't there a thing where movements or rebellions that are failing start to attack themselves so they can get any sort of victory?

Eric Hoffer noted this tendency in The True Believer. He called it Purging as a Substitute for Progress.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Stephen Miller on Talarico: I think it's very bold—one could say brave, courageous that the Democratic Party would choose Texas of all places to nominate their first transgender senate candidate who is clearly transitioning into a female.

video in link

Miller: When Talarico goes in for a blood test when he gets a physical, blood doesn't come out. Soy milk comes out. This man has less testosterone than Jasmine Crockett. They would choose a person who looks like he doesn't belong in the senate but in a cabaret show.

video in link

 

[kookbreaker]

Stephen Miller on Talarico: I think it's very bold—one could say brave, courageous that the Democratic Party would choose Texas of all places to nominate their first transgender senate candidate who is clearly transitioning into a female.

video in link

Miller: When Talarico goes in for a blood test when he gets a physical, blood doesn't come out. Soy milk comes out. This man has less testosterone than Jasmine Crockett. They would choose a person who looks like he doesn't belong in the senate but in a cabaret show.

video in link

The man who looks like a walking polyp is criticizing someone's appearance. Pretty pathetic.

Of course Miller tried this comment on X and got blasted for it. The official Democratic account just plain saying "shut up you ugly ◊◊◊◊".

What was funnier was that after that a bunch of MAGA influencers tried to react to that comment by clutching their pearls but got ratioed by Adam Mockler and others.

 

[shemp]

Stephen Miller on Talarico: I think it's very bold—one could say brave, courageous that the Democratic Party would choose Texas of all places to nominate their first transgender senate candidate who is clearly transitioning into a female.

video in link

Miller: When Talarico goes in for a blood test when he gets a physical, blood doesn't come out. Soy milk comes out. This man has less testosterone than Jasmine Crockett. They would choose a person who looks like he doesn't belong in the senate but in a cabaret show.

video in link

Pathetic desperation. Nosferatu sees the dawn coming.

 

[Andy_Ross]

James Talarico
@jamestalarico
Ken Paxton is throwing everything he has at us.

He’s called me a radical leftist. He’s called me a fake Christian. He’s even called me a vegan!

I’m an 8th generation Texan — I've been eating BBQ since before Ken Paxton’s first indictment

video in link

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Republican donors are pissed that the Texas Race is suddenly up in the air, with Paxton being a target bigger than a barn door for attack ads.
Expect this to be the most expensive race of the entire election.

 

[Resume]

Pathetic desperation. Nosferatu sees the dawn coming.

Man, I hope you're right.

 

[Resume]

James Talarico
@jamestalarico
Ken Paxton is throwing everything he has at us.

He’s called me a radical leftist. He’s called me a fake Christian. He’s even called me a vegan!

I’m an 8th generation Texan — I've been eating BBQ since before Ken Paxton’s first indictment

video in link

I hope he keeps that ◊◊◊◊ up.

 

[stanfr]

So Talarico is actually leading 47-44 in the first polls to come out, within the margin of error though. Still, this is TX and that is a strong showing for there. Maybe some Republicans actually take note of mass corruption.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Watters:
I have questions I want reporters to ask low T Talarico:

Do you own a gun? Are you a Cowboys fan? Does he know the Spurs are playing tonight? Does he own a truck? Does he believe in premarital sex? Does he wear women’s underwear?

video in link

 

[dirtywick]

i bet jesse watters has the hands of a newborn baby

 

[Resume]

i bet jesse watters has the hands of a newborn baby

And a few other things.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump on Talarico: This transgender—this guy running in Texas, he wears a mask all the time. He’s a disaster candidate. I think Ken Paxton is going to destroy him.

video in link

 

[Trebuchet]

And the Democrats chances of taking over the Senate just got a little better with what happened in Texas.
Comyn would have been a shooin, but now it;s a real fight with the baggage loaded Paxton. And I have a feeling even more crap about Paxton is going to come in light before NOvember.

Only if a fair election happens in November. There is not the slightest chance of that happening.