Ed Israel/US Attacks Iran /Yet Another Country/Iran

[Andy_Ross]

Make Iran pay for the attack.

Right after Mexico pays for the wall.

Rep. Scott Perry: "I would actually like to see Iran pay for this. Whether it's $20 billion or $200 billion, whatever it is. Look, they've been at war with us for 47 years and it's finally being ended by the president, which is awesome, but it comes at a cost. They have resources. They could pay that bill.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2034831377837838768

 

[Helen]

Just when you think that this couldn't get any stupider...

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Foreign war distracts from troubles at home. Fund it with punitive war reparations. Pick a victim, blow them to smithereens and then send them the bill.

Cuba, you're next. Just as soon as the Iranian regime, which it fighting for its very existence, gives up and stops shooting back. Two weeks. Almost certainly. You'll begin to see...

 

[Nessie]

Netanyahu was on the news claiming, does anyone really believe Trump can be told what to do? I say 100% he can be told what to do, we see it happening with this attack and how Putin tells him what to do in Ukraine.

 

[dirtywick]

between all the blackmailable stuff he's done and the fact that he's got no moral compunctions about doing literally anything, i don't see why he couldn't be told what to do. he'd just do it and figure out a way to steal something for himself while he's at it.

 

[Wudang]

The conflict is hitting world Helium supplies - needed for computer hard drives and other purposes

Helium prices soar as Qatar LNG halt exposes fragile supply chain

Disruptions to Qatar's natural gas processing from the Iran war have driven helium prices sharply higher, exposing the fragility of a small but critical market that supports industries from semiconductors to medical imaging.

www.reuters.com

 

[The Great Zaganza]

the idea that, left on its own, the US would do nothing bad is so quintessential American, it would be precious if it wasn't so blatantly self-serving and false.
Every military adventure that failed has been portrayed as well-meaning but somewhat guidable US leaders having their good intentions manipulated by nefarious Vietnamese, Iraqi Exiles, Russians, Saudis, Ukrainians, Israeli etc.
But as the enabling power in all these conflicts, it is just pathetic to hide behind small regional actors for Americas mass-murdering mistakes.

As the saying goes: "If you want War, prepare for War." and boy howdy has the US been preparing for war with Iran for such a long time. So much of US Middle East policy is aimed at an eventual war with Iran, is was just a matter of When and How Much, not If.

Did Trump get pushed by the Israeli Netanyahu to wage this war?
not nearly as much as by the American Miriam Adelson and other US citizens who think they can push the US government to fight wars for the countries they have an affinity for without actually living there, similar to the Miami "Cubans".

 

[Jack by the hedge]

The conflict is hitting world Helium supplies - needed for computer hard drives and other purposes

So, the balloon's gone up.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

We need that helium!

the idea that, left on its own, the US would do nothing bad is so quintessential American, it would be precious if it wasn't so blatantly self-serving and false.
Every military adventure that failed has been portrayed as well-meaning but somewhat guidable US leaders having their good intentions manipulated by nefarious Vietnamese, Iraqi Exiles, Russians, Saudis, Ukrainians, Israeli etc.
But as the enabling power in all these conflicts, it is just pathetic to hide behind small regional actors for Americas mass-murdering mistakes.

As the saying goes: "If you want War, prepare for War." and boy howdy has the US been preparing for war with Iran for such a long time. So much of US Middle East policy is aimed at an eventual war with Iran, is was just a matter of When and How Much, not If.

Did Trump get pushed by the Israeli Netanyahu to wage this war?
not nearly as much as by the American Miriam Adelson and other US citizens who think they can push the US government to fight wars for the countries they have an affinity for without actually living there, similar to the Miami "Cubans".

It's a classic meme:

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Trump contemplating invasion and takeover of Kharg Island "to force Iran to open the Strait".

Someone doesn't understand how leverage works.

Blocking Iran from exporting oil makes preventing anyone else from exporting oil the only logical move.

The arguably best move for Iran is to blow up all the high-tech oil infrastructure of its neighbours, making it extremely attractive to invest in brand new oil production facilities in Iran itself, paying for its reconstruction and future nuclear weapons program.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

Netanyahu was on the news claiming, does anyone really believe Trump can be told what to do? I say 100% he can be told what to do, we see it happening with this attack and how Putin tells him what to do in Ukraine.

With Trump I don't think you can 'tell' him what to do, his ego's too big, but you can certainly flatter, bribe or manipulate him into pretty much anything.

 

[jimbob]

Trump contemplating invasion and takeover of Kharg Island "to force Iran to open the Strait".

Someone doesn't understand how leverage works.

Blocking Iran from exporting oil makes preventing anyone else from exporting oil the only logical move.

The arguably best move for Iran is to blow up all the high-tech oil infrastructure of its neighbours, making it extremely attractive to invest in brand new oil production facilities in Iran itself, paying for its reconstruction and future nuclear weapons program.

IF Iran's military can block traffic out of the Gulf, the USN should be able to even more easily. And that doesn't destroy the facilities that presumably Trump wants an ally to eventually have control over.

 

[Ziggurat]

Trump contemplating invasion and takeover of Kharg Island "to force Iran to open the Strait".

Someone doesn't understand how leverage works.

Blocking Iran from exporting oil makes preventing anyone else from exporting oil the only logical move.

Someone doesn't understand how a threat works. The threat of taking Kharg is leverage. Because your logic works both ways: if Iran keeps the straits closed, what incentive do we have to not take Kharg?

Furthermore, if we were to take Kharg, Iran only has no incentive to open the strait IF you assume that Kharg is lost to them forever. Remove that assumption, and Kharg becomes a bargaining chip, and a valuable one at that.

Furthermore, the loss of Kharg makes it harder for Iran to keep the straits closed. The IRCG isn't actually a charity. Its members don't work for free. They have to be paid. And when your ability to keep paying them (including expectations of future pay) gets undercut, your ability to keep commanding them does too.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

If only we could weaponize that copium, we might be able to win this war.

As it is, ◊◊◊◊ dude, open your eyes. We're losing. To Iran. Because all they have to do to win is outlast us by digging in and surviving, while we can't win at all. We don't even have victory conditions, because apparently we're too bloodthirsty to negotiate and too chicken ◊◊◊◊ to conquer.

 

[Planigale]

Someone doesn't understand how a threat works. The threat of taking Kharg is leverage. Because your logic works both ways: if Iran keeps the straits closed, what incentive do we have to not take Kharg?

Furthermore, if we were to take Kharg, Iran only has no incentive to open the strait IF you assume that Kharg is lost to them forever. Remove that assumption, and Kharg becomes a bargaining chip, and a valuable one at that.

Furthermore, the loss of Kharg makes it harder for Iran to keep the straits closed. The IRCG isn't actually a charity. Its members don't work for free. They have to be paid. And when your ability to keep paying them (including expectations of future pay) gets undercut, your ability to keep commanding them does too.

The USN would have to get past the straights to get to Kharg Island, so long as Iran controls the straights, invading Kharg Island isn't realistic. You could argue that an airborne assault could be made, and the occupying forces supplied by air. That is not a great option. Iran may not have the type of air defence that can prevent them being bombed, but it probably does have the type of air defence that could impact on transport aircraft landing (even assuming that they haven't mined the airstrip).

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Someone doesn't understand how a threat works. The threat of taking Kharg is leverage. Because your logic works both ways: if Iran keeps the straits closed, what incentive do we have to not take Kharg?

Furthermore, if we were to take Kharg, Iran only has no incentive to open the strait IF you assume that Kharg is lost to them forever. Remove that assumption, and Kharg becomes a bargaining chip, and a valuable one at that.

Furthermore, the loss of Kharg makes it harder for Iran to keep the straits closed. The IRCG isn't actually a charity. Its members don't work for free. They have to be paid. And when your ability to keep paying them (including expectations of future pay) gets undercut, your ability to keep commanding them does too.

if the goal is to open the strait, then forcing Iran to close it by invading Kharg is an empty thread.
And unless you are proposing an IRCG buyout program, it's not like they have any other place to go - better to rule the rubble than living on the streets on in prison elsewhere.

And Forever is a strong word, given the attention span of American politics.

 

[Ziggurat]

The USN would have to get past the straights to get to Kharg Island, so long as Iran controls the straights, invading Kharg Island isn't realistic.

Iran doesn't control the straits. They threaten the straits. That's a major difference. Threatening the strait is enough to keep civilian ships from risking transit, but Iran cannot block the US navy.

You could argue that an airborne assault could be made, and the occupying forces supplied by air. That is not a great option. Iran may not have the type of air defence that can prevent them being bombed, but it probably does have the type of air defence that could impact on transport aircraft landing (even assuming that they haven't mined the airstrip).

There is no air defense on Kharg anymore, and as we've seen with Venezuela, it's not much of an obstacle anyways. Supply, not air defense, is the issue with an airborne assault.

 

[Ziggurat]

if the goal is to open the strait, then forcing Iran to close it by invading Kharg is an empty thread.

It's only an empty threat if you think Trump wouldn't actually do it.

Would you take that gamble? Will Iran take that gamble?

And unless you are proposing an IRCG buyout program, it's not like they have any other place to go - better to rule the rubble than living on the streets on in prison elsewhere.

The IRGC footmen don't rule. They fight because they get paid. If they don't get paid, why would they fight? To rule the rubble? No, because again, they don't rule. Unless they depose their superiors.

And Forever is a strong word, given the attention span of American politics.

That's... kinda my point. If there's a possibility of getting Kharg back, then that's an incentive to not close the strait. I'm not saying that's necessarily what they will do in the event, but it's absolutely a reason that they might not, or not forever.

 

[Planigale]

It's only an empty threat if you think Trump wouldn't actually do it.

Would you take that gamble? Will Iran take that gamble?

The IRGC footmen don't rule. They fight because they get paid. If they don't get paid,
why would they fight? To rule the rubble? No, because again, they don't rule. Unless they depose their superiors.

That's... kinda my point. If there's a possibility of getting Kharg back, then that's an incentive to not close the strait. I'm not saying that's necessarily what they will do in the event, but it's absolutely a reason that they might not, or not forever.

Because it is a religious duty. Maybe because they are patriots. Maybe seeking revenge for the deaths of iranian children.

 

[Ziggurat]

As it is, ◊◊◊◊ dude, open your eyes. We're losing. To Iran.

What's your metric?

Because all they have to do to win is outlast us by digging in and surviving, while we can't win at all.

Can they dig in and survive? You seem to take that as a given. I don't think it is. I don't think Iran thinks it is. If they did, they wouldn't be attacking all their neighbors. That's an act of desperation. I think they're on the clock. I think Iran thinks they're on the clock.