How do we know a pandemic's over?

[dann]

UK - Good news!

Cat in the Hat, Oct 17, 2025
LONDON MAYOR INVESTS £2.7M IN AIR QUALITY FILTERS FOR SCHOOLS
I’m SO excited about this! I hope there’s lots of press coverage about it over the coming weeks.
It’s not just an issue in London though.ALL children have the right to breathe clean air.
https://london.gov.uk/mayor-invests-ps27m-air-quality-filters-schools-clean-air-classrooms

Cat in the Hat on X, Oct 18, 2025
I’m feeling a lot more optimistic following this announcement yesterday.
It’s a quantum leap forward in the fight for clean indoor air for our children.
The #CleanAirRevolution starts here!
Lots of details in the thread below, so please do click in & have a read)

 

[dann]

Michael Olesen on X, Oct 25, 2025
The morons seem to be out in force today. That usually has a weird correlation with something bad brewing.

Sean Mullen on X, Oct 25, 2025
Just a reminder of how things go on here.
At the start of every wave, anyone posting about Covid gets more attention. Then come the bot followers. They act like viruses: they infect, lie dormant, and mess you up later.
During the wave, you get the minimizers, the trolls, the accounts designed to distract and ratio you.
Then comes the backend of the wave, when engagement fades to crickets. That’s when the bot farms wake up. People start joining the “Long Covid Community,” but even some inside it lose patience for new patients who haven’t been around or paying attention.
When the realization hits that there’s been no movement on finding or funding LC treatments, the grifters come crawling back. The forgotten disability communities, ignored and isolated for decades, open their arms to the newly harmed, then feed them the same lies they were fed.
You start hearing: “LC isn’t new. It’s just ME. Welcome to the club.”
And if you wander into Spaces with those who appear to be MDs operating in good faith, you’ll hear the 2020 talking points again. Paid actors mocking people for asking real questions. Doctors laughing at the idea that they should mask or that LC could be an acquired immune deficiency, while studies pile up showing T-, B-, and NK-cell dysfunction and rising fungal, bacterial, and viral infections.
It’s the same playbook every wave.
Watch closely, and you’ll see it too.

I haven't been on X long enough to notice if this is an actual pattern.
At least, it seems to have stopped here on ISF.

However, I have noticed this pattern:

Cat in the Hat on X, Oct 24, 2025
It’s immensely irritating that, every time Long Covid in children is mentioned, folks turn up to blame it all on vaccine injury.
Truth is, even before children were eligible for a Covid vax (Sep 2021), there were already 69K kids in the UK (aged 2-16 yrs) with Long Covid.

Anti-vaxxers tweeting variations of 'It's the jab' accompany every mention of Long Covid.

 

[dann]

UK:

Cat in the Hat on X, Oct 22, 2025
In the most recent week of data, over 3,200 cases were reported - and bear in mind that the only cases reported are those who are ill enough to be PCR-tested in hospital so the numbers will be *hugely* under-reported.
And there were 100 Covid deaths in the week up to 3 October.

Denmark:
The current death toll per capita is much the same as in the UK.
Oct 14 to 20, 2025: 9 COVID-19 deaths - the lowest number yet this time of the year since the pandemic began.
2024: 18
2023: 17
2022: 64 - post-vax, but first year with Omicron and no restrictions or masking - and after we were supposed to have achieved 'super immunity'.
2021: 16 - post-vax
2020: 15 - pre-vax and before the more contagious variants appeared.

Since August, the wastewater concentration of SARS-CoV-2 has been moving up and down but has stayed within 'medium level'.

 

[dann]

UK:

UK:
Cat in the Hat on X, Oct 22, 2025
In the most recent week of data, over 3,200 cases were reported - and bear in mind that the only cases reported are those who are ill enough to be PCR-tested in hospital so the numbers will be *hugely* under-reported.
And there were 100 Covid deaths in the week up to 3 October.

New numbers:

Cat in the Hat on X, Oct 26, 2025
In the latest weekly figures, there were 188 people Covid deaths across the UK.
188 Covid deaths. In just one week.
3,866 Covid deaths so far this year.
(H/t @gwladwr)

Cat in the Hat on X, Oct 26, 2025
“We're not just running out of cubicles; we're running out of corridors.”
“It feels like [Winter] is going to be armageddon, to be honest. We’re already full.”
This entire article is frankly horrifying. And yet, nothing is being done to mitigate it
.https://independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-winter-crisis-covid-flu-streeting-hospitals-b2849387.html

Cat in the Hat on X, Oct 26, 2025
…and this is probably amplified considerably by the govt’s irresponsible decision to hugely restrict access to Covid vaccines this autumn.
Hardly anyone is eligible anymore, even many of those who are clinically vulnerable.
As I’ve said all along, this will cost lives.

 

[dann]

Far from sterilizing , but still worthwhile:

Analysis: Last year's COVID vaccines protected well against severe illness (CIDRAP, Oct 28, 2025)
The updated 2024-25 COVID-19 vaccines provided 57% protection against hospitalization and death, although their effectiveness waned over time, according to a study yesterday in JAMA Internal Medicine.
The study assessed effectiveness against infection, emergency department (ED) visits, and hospitalization. Protection against infection and ED visits was 45%.
(...)
Overall protection against infections peaked at 4 weeks after vaccination, dropping significantly by 20 weeks, but protection levels were similar for all Omicron subvariants circulating during the study period.

 

[dann]

San Diego County Respiratory Virus Surveillance Report, June 29, 2025–Oct 4, 2025 (SanDiegoCounty.gov, Oct 9, 2025
Covid-19: Hospitalizations 1,530; Deaths 40
Influenza: Hospitalizations 78; Deaths 2
RSV: Hospitalizations 11; Deaths 0

San Diego County Respiratory Virus Surveillance Report, June 29, 2025–Oct 18, 2025 (SanDiegoCounty.gov, Oct 23, 2025)
Covid-19: Hospitalizations 1,689; Deaths 46
Influenza: Hospitalizations 85; Deaths 2
RSV: Hospitalizations 16; Deaths 0


A Danish article makes a pretty bold claim:

Covid-19 og influenza har samme dødelighed (SSI.dk, Oct 29, 2025)
Covid-19 er ikke længere mere alvorlig end influenza, når det gælder dødelighed i forbindelse med hospitalsindlæggelser i Danmark. Det viser data fra vintersæsonen 2024/25, hvor dødeligheden var den samme for de to sygdomme.
For begge grupper var risikoen for at dø inden for 30 dage efter indlæggelse 10-11 procent, og dermed er forskellen mellem de to sygdomme nu udlignet.

The same mortality from COVID-19 and influenza
COVID-19 is no longer more serious than influenza when it comes to mortality in connection with hospitalizations in Denmark, according to data from the winter season 2024-2025 when the mortality of the two diseases was the same.
In both groups, the risk of dying within 30 days after hospitalization was 10-11 percent, and so the difference between the two diseases has been erased.

I call the claim bold because it is based on one season only, and it is a season where the number of flu deaths was higher than in the previous years of the pandemic, and the number of C19 cases much lower. It remains to be seen if this is a trend or an outlier.
So far, the number of C19 deaths in Denmark this season has been lower than last year, but it's on the rise.

 

[marting]

San Diego County Respiratory Virus Surveillance Report, June 29, 2025–Oct 18, 2025 (SanDiegoCounty.gov, Oct 23, 2025)
Covid-19: Hospitalizations 1,689; Deaths 46
Influenza: Hospitalizations 85; Deaths 2
RSV: Hospitalizations 16; Deaths 0


A Danish article makes a pretty bold claim:

The same mortality from COVID-19 and influenza
COVID-19 is no longer more serious than influenza when it comes to mortality in connection with hospitalizations in Denmark, according to data from the winter season 2024-2025 when the mortality of the two diseases was the same.
In both groups, the risk of dying within 30 days after hospitalization was 10-11 percent, and so the difference between the two diseases has been erased.

I call the claim bold because it is based on one season only, and it is a season where the number of flu deaths was higher than in the previous years of the pandemic, and the number of C19 cases much lower. It remains to be seen if this is a trend or an outlier.
So far, the number of C19 deaths in Denmark this season has been lower than last year, but it's on the rise.

While last year was a high flu season, the claim is mortality relative to hospitalization. The real question is what will this be in the coming winter? And it should be noted that C19 is pretty much year round without very low dips as can be seen in the San Diego hospitalization/death numbers since June.

 

[gabeygoat]

I don't understand the question in the original post, because, surely, the pandemic ends when Dann says so.

 

[dann]

I don't have a say in this. I look at the facts and link to my sources.
What do you think of this? Does it appear to be over? Has it become seasonal?

Marc Johnson on X, Oct 31, 2025
Can you take a quarter cup of composite sewage, simply ask ‘what’s in there?’, and find out all of the pathogens circulating in that community?
That is the question we asked in our latest pre-print.
Turns out you can.
1/
Untargeted longitudinal ultra deep metagenomic sequencing of wastewater provides a comprehensive readout of expected and unexpected viral pathogens (medRxiv, Oct 28, 2025)

(...)

Marc Johnson on X, Oct 31, 2025
There was only one respiratory virus that was present year-round. You guessed it, SARS-CoV-2.
It’s still here.
9/

 

[dann]

While last year was a high flu season, the claim is mortality relative to hospitalization. The real question is what will this be in the coming winter? And it should be noted that C19 is pretty much year round without very low dips as can be seen in the San Diego hospitalization/death numbers since June.

In , the flu season seems to have started early this year, but I don't know when it usually starts. I also don't know if it was as bad last year as it was in both San Diego and .

CoronaHeadsUp on X, Nov 1, 2025
Japan: Influenza case numbers in Kawasaki are accelerating and growing at an 'astonishing speed'

Takuro on X, Nov 1, 2025
Translated from Japanese
11/1 Sat #KawasakiCitySurveillance
Number of influenza cases. Surprisingly, the rate of increase is accelerating, and it's growing at an astonishing speed. Early measures are necessary.
Week-over-week comparison (per medical institution/actual numbers)
Sat 2.33/2.40
Sun 1.77/1.64
Mon 2.13/2.06
Tue 1.87/1.87
Wed 2.22/1.96
Thu 2.26/2.01
Fri 2.73/1.99

In San Diego, the flu season doesn't seem to have really begun yet:

San Diego County Respiratory Virus Surveillance Report, June 29, 2025–Oct 18, 2025 (SanDiegoCounty.gov, Oct 23, 2025)
Covid-19: Hospitalizations 1,689; Deaths 46
Influenza: Hospitalizations 85; Deaths 2
RSV: Hospitalizations 16; Deaths 0

San Diego County Respiratory Virus Surveillance Report, June 29, 2025–Oct 25, 2025 (SanDiegoCounty.gov, Oct 30, 2025)
Covid-19: Hospitalizations 1,730; Deaths 48
Influenza: Hospitalizations 88; Deaths 2
RSV: Hospitalizations 16; Deaths 0

 

[dann]

- When will they ever learn?

Anne Marie on X, Nov 3, 2025
Honestly, I have had enough of schools shifting the blame for the in absence onto students & parents. They KNOW illness is the MAIN REASON for absence, they KNOW DfE guidance says to clean the indoor air.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1975120875751182696

What sparked this was another tweet:

Lee Woods on X, Nov 3, 2025
Attendance is more than just a number. It is about participation, connection, and progress.
This week we launched #NoDaysOffNovember, a month-long challenge encouraging every student to aim for 100% attendance and punctuality. While prizes and rewards are available for those who achieve perfect attendance, the real purpose of the campaign runs deeper. It is about building strong habits, supporting every student, and showing that every day in school matters.
At Star Radcliffe Academy, we believe attendance is a shared journey. ...

There are many good replies, some of them much too polite considering the intention of this campaign:

Alan Bernard on X, Nov 3, 2025
I think you need to think this through. Maybe learn how airborne viruses work? An infected person breathes out virus, someone else breathes it in. Simply giving prizes to get sick kids to go to school will just increase sickness. Have a look at this…
Clean Air for Kids

Pete on X, Nov 3, 2025
Yay, prizes for bringing a disabling infection into schools and passing it on to everyone!
Presenteeism for the sake of it, no matter what, is a really stupid idea.

Phil Jeffcock on X, Nov 3, 2025
What are you doing to ensure that sick kids aren’t dragging themselves into school for a prize, to the detriment of others? Two kids in each class will be affected by asthma at age 10 and early exposure to RSV is causal (often brought home by siblings catching it at school). The consequences of this kind of presenteeism is life changing for some kids. I now strongly suspect it was for me.

Tasha Writes on X, Nov 3, 2025
‘No days off November’ equals ‘bring your Covid to school’ month, in readiness for ‘whole month off’ December incorporating ‘Christmas is cancelled’ month.

Jules on X, Nov 3, 2025
Prize for most sick kids. Bet teachers well chuffed. But on a good note department of education have had a refit with new airfiltration units.oh! and Parliament.

Cait on X, Nov 3, 2025
No, it's about ensuring the parents go to work, at the cost of their children's health in making them go to school rather than rest and recover, and at the cost of other children's health as well given most childhood illness are highly contagious.
When people wax lyrical about parents making sacrifices, it's meant to be the exact opposite of this. The idea is to protect the children at all cost, not sacrifice the children to the alter of "the economy", and to scientifically illiterate education policy.

And many, many more ...

 

[Nessie]

Pretty sure I have got Covid, for a third time.

 

[dann]

I hope you get tested after act accordingly.
Any chance of getting Paxlovid?


ETA:

SW on X, Nov 2, 2025
What are we doing?
https://independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/covid-vaccine-flu-jab-symptoms-2025-b2856853.html
#COVIDisAirborne #LongCOVID #MaskUp

 

[dann]

- When will they ever learn?

It gets even more grotesque:

Cat in the Hat on X, Nov 3, 2025
At @StarRadcliffe Academy, pupils who are ill are told to ‘manage’ their illness at school.
“Many pupils feel a huge sense of pride when they get to the end of the school day having successfully managed an illness &, at Star Academies, we’d commend them on their resilience.”

Read the whole thing, not just the highlighted sentences!
"we can monitor your child and issue any medication in line with your instructions. It is rare for students who take the positive decision to try to manage their illness through the schools day have to be sent home (...) Often school can be a helpful distraction."

Cat in the Hat on X, Nov 3, 2025
This school, @StarRadcliffe, has launched a #NoDaysOffNovember campaign targeting 100% attendance.Their post has been inundated with criticism for encouraging sick kids to attend school & spread their illness to others.The school’s response is to block & hide every comment

With a short video (1:13 min.) scrolling through the comments.
One of them: "It's Bring Your Infectious Disease To School Month"
Others: "Holy ◊◊◊◊ almost 10,000 views and only four likes. You people are failures."
"You are actually hiding replies recommending HEPA filters and advocating for the health and wellbeing of your students!"
"If you don't understand basic disease transmission, there is no possible way you'r competent and capable of teaching anyone anything.
Praying for your bankruptcy."

I wonder what the teachers and other staff think of this policy.

ETA:

The Vertlartnic on X, Nov 3, 2025
It’s Bring Your Infectious Disease To School Month

 

[dann]

COVID-19 - Influenza:

tern on X, Nov 5, 2025
Flu is continuing its very sharp rise in England and Covid is continuing its sharp fall.
I still think the timings are not coincidental.

 

[dann]

Nature on X, Nov 4, 2025
“I think there’s a collective amnesia right now about COVID-19”
SARS-CoV-2 infections have been rising in the past month, and limited surveillance is hampering health strategies

https://t.co/gtjbgcPXhD
COVID-19 is spreading again — how serious is it and what are the symptoms? (Nature, Nov 4, 2025)
Limited COVID-19 surveillance data are hampering vaccination and health strategies, researchers say.
SARS-CoV-2 infections have been rising in the past month — global cases increased by more than 19,000 last month compared with the previous month, according to data posted on the World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 dashboard.
But the real number of infections is much higher than that, researchers say, because countries are less focused on collecting data on the infection now than they were during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Surveillance is happening but it’s at a much lower level than it used to be. We don’t have a complete picture of virus circulation of the variants that are out there,” says Maria Van Kerkhove, interim director of the department of epidemic and pandemic management at the WHO in Geneva, Switzerland. “I think there’s a collective amnesia right now about COVID-19,” she adds.

 

[dann]

school attendance, continued:

Dame Sa on X, Nov 5, 2025
UK schools trying to reduce absence…

 

[dann]

And not just in schools:

Cat in the Hat on X, Nov 5, 2025
I think @BBCBreakfast should have a chat with BBC health reporter, @jim_reed.
According to Jim:
“Almost every expert out there thinks [Long Covid] is a v important factor in explaining why we’ve seen this rise over the past 4-5 years in people who are off work long-term sick”.

BBC Breakfast on X, Nov 5, 2025
The number of sick and disabled people out of work is putting the UK at risk of an "economic inactivity crisis" that threatens the country's prosperity, according to a new report.Former John Lewis boss Sir Charlie Mayfield told #BBCBreakfast about the review which found there were 800,000 more people out of work now than in 2019 due to health conditions, costing employers £85bn a year
Britain sliding 'into economic crisis' over £85bn sickness bill, ex-John Lewis boss warns (BBC, Nov 5, 2025)

And not just in . It's almost everywhere.

 

[dann]

COVID-19 is spreading again — how serious is it and what are the symptoms? (Nature, Nov 4, 2025)
Limited COVID-19 surveillance data are hampering vaccination and health strategies, researchers say.

Nextstrain on X, Nov 6, 2025
On Oct 1, 2025, @GISAID informed us that they had ended updates to the flat file of SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences and associated metadata that we had used to update Nextstrain analyses since Feb 2020. GISAID's stated rationale was that their "resources are limited". 1/5

We strive to credit labs collecting specimens and generating sequence data prominently. But credit for data contributions is not zero sum – surfacing of data in popular tools generates visibility and does not infringe on future publications by the data generators. 2/5

Tools like Nextstrain, CoV-Spectrum, UShER and http://outbreak.info facilitate a global community of experts to keep close tabs on the ongoing evolution of SARS-CoV-2. Support for http://outbreak.info ended in Jan 2025 and CoV-Spectrum hasn't been updated for >3 weeks. 3/5

Closing these public analyses puts the world more in the dark and concretely harms surveillance as it becomes more difficult for variant spotters to contribute to global situational awareness. 4/5

Full blog post explaining situation and background is available here:
Interruption to GISAID-based SARS-CoV-2 sequence analyses (Nextstrain, Nov 6, 2025)

 

[dann]

Not about COVID-19!
Bad news about the flu this year. It was pretty bad last year, and now this:

New flu virus mutation could see 'worst season in a decade' (BBC, Nov 9, 2025)
Flu strikes every winter, but this year something seems to be different.
A seasonal flu virus suddenly mutated in the summer. It appears to evade some of our immunity, has kick-started a flu season more than a month early, and is a type of flu that history suggests is more severe.
The NHS has now issued a "flu jab SOS" as fears grow that this will add up to a brutal winter.
(...)
History suggests that the form of influenza we are facing this year is more severe, particularly for older people.

And that's not all:

Prof Lewis argues this is "absolutely the most important year" to get vaccinated and that "if you have been called by your GP, please get your flu vaccine as soon as possible".
However, this year's vaccine is not a perfect match to the mutated virus.
The decision on the design of the vaccine was made in February to give enough time to produce the millions of doses necessary - and then the new mutant emerged in June.