It's not conclusive either way at this stage. Let's not forget he murdered someone, so he was ◊◊◊◊◊◊ in the head.
Right, that's where we started with this and that's still where I am. If you thinking killing someone in cold blood is the answer to your problem, you'll lose most of the support you would have had from people who would be sympathetic to your problem.
I've had a chance now to read the charging document. Obviously any criminal complaintt is the prosecutor's desired narrative and the prosecutor's choice of evidence to present in favor of it. I've seen enough criminal complaints in Utah related to events I actually witnessed to come to a belief that they range from slightly exaggerated to to full-on fantasy. But in all cases the charging document presents at best a cherry-picked version of all the relevant facts.
Here the motives seem to be spelled out mostly to support the aggravating factor for capital murder. As I mentioned earlier, you can't charge someone with capital murder in Utah simply because you're really mad at them. The list of accepted aggravating factors is spelled out in statute and the complaint must allege facts that speak to one or more of those factors.
This is what I glean from the complaint :—
There was no CSI miracle here. As predicted, once surveillance photographs of the suspect were made public, the public took the initiative to bring the suspect into custody.
The relationship between Robinson and the roommate was likely more than just cohabitation. However, I believe it's a stretch to claim that the decision to commit violence is necessarily a consequence of "the trans." The consequence of Utah culture is that many more young people than usual must keep disapproved relationships secret from family, regardless of what exact factor makes that relationship unacceptable to the family.
According to the text message excerpts, the messages on the cartridge casings were indeed the memes others have characterized, but it's not clear whether Robinson intended them seriously or merely as distraction or a troll. It doesn't seem likely that Robinson is aligned with Groyper culture although he seems conversant with its expressions.
The testimony from the parents regarding Robinson's political beliefs is probably not going to be very strong moving forward. It was given after the fact, in the light of well-publicized speculation and accusation. And it is more likely to be the parents' observation and interpretation from a distance rather than an accurate expression of Robinson's politics. As a rule, people in Utah who embrace liberal ideas contrary to the conservative ideas they may have been brought up with don't discuss it extensively with their families. It's generally fruitless to do so.
The parents' testimony is necessary to support the enhancement that alleges Robinson's selection of the target was based on Kirk's political expression; it is unlikely the prosecution had any other evidence to go by. This, however, is not what makes it capital murder. The prosecutor chose the "great risk to others" aggravating factor. It's not spelled out explicitly what evidence is presented to support this, however in the narrative of the shooting the complaint notes that the bullet trajectory was near other people: Kirk's associates and the student asking the question. Whether this will stand up under a defense remains iffy. And sadly the only lawyers I can talk to about this are those that are known to be out of the running for Robinson's defense and hence not necessarily the most authoritative sources.
Count 6 (witness tampering) is not likely to withstand a good defense (as if that will matter in the final outcome). Robinson urges his roommate to stay silent and get a lawyer if questioned by police. This is more likely to have been intended as an admonition for the roommate to protect their rights under the Fifth Amendment as Robinson may have understood them.
But we come back around to the notion that acts of violence are not the inevitable consequence of this narrative pattern. There are countless LGBTQIA+ Utahns living in relative degrees of tension with family and society and operating under a steady stream of homophobia and transphobia—a fair amount of it from the state's own political and religious leadership. Despite those stressors, violence is quite rare. The Kirk murder clearly has more to do with problems the individual is facing than with perceived institutional indoctrination, policy, or message. Robinson wasn't facing any more or different "indoctrination" than countless other minorities in Utah who choose to respond non-violently, if they respond publicly at all. Robinson is just a nut with a gun.
