Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 9

steenkh said:
I don't think it is much of a consolation for Ukraine to know that Russia has lost the war, when they are still fighting, and Trump believes that Russia has "all the cards". It may very well be that Russia's army has lost a lot of credibility, and that it will take a long time to rebuild the army and the economy,
but right now they have not lost the war, and their economy has not collapsed.
That is great news. But I don't think it means that Russia has lost the war. If they had, Trump would offer US forces to stop the Ukrainians from entering Moscow!
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Russia has two choices, keep fighting or face total economic collapse. They can keep inflicting pain on the Ukrainians, but there is no way they will achieve their stated goals even if the US stops all aid.
 
steenkh said:
I don't think it is much of a consolation for Ukraine to know that Russia has lost the war, when they are still fighting, and Trump believes that Russia has "all the cards".
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I'm not saying this to console Ukraine, though I imagine they do take some consolation from the absolute harm they have inflicted on Russia, from the disadvantageous position they're stuck in.
steenkh said:
It may very well be that Russia's army has lost a lot of credibility, and that it will take a long time to rebuild the army and the economy, but right now they have not lost the war, and their economy has not collapsed.
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I'm saying that every strategic gain Moscow could have envisioned has instead become a strategic loss that will not be restored in our lifetime. More leverage in European energy markets? Lost, probably forever. A weakening of European resolve to resist Russian hegemony? Europe never been this strong in its commitment to contain Russia in decades. Preventing the expansion of NATO? Finland and Sweden say hello. Etc.

Moscow has already dealt itself a multi-faceted strategic loss, on a scale it won't recover from no matter how much more territory it takes in Ukraine.
steenkh said:
That is great news. But I don't think it means that Russia has lost the war. If they had, Trump would offer US forces to stop the Ukrainians from entering Moscow!
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I don't base my assessment on what Trump does or doesn't think.
 
steenkh said:
I don't think it is much of a consolation for Ukraine to know that Russia has lost the war, when they are still fighting, and Trump believes that Russia has "all the cards". It may very well be that Russia's army has lost a lot of credibility, and that it will take a long time to rebuild the army and the economy, but right now they have not lost the war, and their economy has not collapsed.

That is great news. But I don't think it means that Russia has lost the war. If they had, Trump would offer US forces to stop the Ukrainians from entering Moscow!
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The phrase "Pyrrhic Victory" comes to mind. Russia has spent far more to obtain Ukraine than Ukraine is worth to Russia. Only the all-out wartime economy is holding Russia together right now. It will be a major sticking point in negotiations with Russia once Putin is no longer pushing "maximalist" demands. Once the war is over, Russia will need cash fast to avoid a complete economic collapse when hundreds of thousands of soldiers are fired and dumped into the cratering civilian economy. If Russia can't get that, they have to keep fighting, throwing good money after bad...
 
Zelensky confirms Ukraine troops in Russia's Belgorod region
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has publicly acknowledged for the first time that his troops are active in Russia's Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine.

"We continue to carry out active operations in the border areas on enemy territory, and that is absolutely just - war must return to where it came from," he said on Monday
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Zelensky said "the main objective" was to protect Ukraine's Sumy and Kharkiv border regions, and to "ease the pressure" on other parts of the vast front line, particularly in the eastern Donetsk region.

Russia's military had last month reported Ukrainian attempts to cross over into the Belgorod region - but said such attacks had been rebuffed
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www.bbc.co.uk

Zelensky confirms Ukraine troops active in Russia's Belgorod region

Ukraine's operations in a second region in Russia are explicitly acknowledged for the first time.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
 
A good way of helping an orderly withdrawal using a covering attack elsewhere on the front, especially if it also relieves pressure elsewhere.
 
Cost of oil is collapsing. How will this factor into Russia's ability to continue the illegal/immoral invasion of Ukraine?
 
Latest installment in the saga of the newly-constituted Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps:

(as always, please ignore the clickbait thumbnail mandated by The Algorithm; the reporting behind it is straighforward)


This is a five-brigade formation, centered around the veteran 3rd Assault Brigade, under a unified command structure. It is the first corps-sized formation Ukraine has fielded. This new corps holds a substantial bridgehead on the eastern side of the Oskil river. This sector has been targeted by Moscow for a major summer offensive.

Ukraine has already weakened Moscow's planned offensive over the past several months. The Kursk incursion drew away Russian reserves intended for this offensive, and systematically ground them down before the Ukrainians finally withdrew from Kursk.

Now the 3rd Corps is preparing to face the upcoming offensive head-on. In this installment, the Ukrainians exploit Russian artillery doctrine to inflict heavy losses on the artillery being massed against them. This further weakens the Russian offensive force, and increases the 3rd Corps chances of success in the upcoming battles.

This Lyman sector ("direction") is one of several where the Ukrainians are taking the initiative away from Moscow, and sapping the invader's momentum. It's also another example of how the Ukrainians are improving their capabilities, while Russian capability continues to degrade.

The Lyman direction is shaping up to be a very interesting place to watch, in the coming months.
 
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I've been watching that guy for a while. I liked his concise styling but was worried he was a little *too* "everything is just ducky for Ukraine".
 
kookbreaker said:
I've been watching that guy for a while. I liked his concise styling but was worried he was a little *too* "everything is just ducky for Ukraine".
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Yep. His content is focused exclusively on Ukrainian successes.

Denis Davydov provides a more well-rounded view, if you are looking for a counterbalance.

My point here is that there are positive things to report from Ukraine. As far as I know, there is no opposing view from Moscow, about Moscow's improving capabilities and successful reversals. It might be out there, and of course someone is welcome to post that side of things as well. I know some people are very fond of worrying about the Russian "Zeno's Advance" while ignoring reversals and counteroffensives like this.

Meanwhile, more news from the 3rd Army Corps and their efforts to forestall the expected Russian summer offensive:

 
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The Great Zaganza said:
We will know if Ukraine is having an impact when Putin wants peace.
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Ordinarily that might work, but if Putin thinks he has a divine mission to rebuild all the Russias then his threshold for giving up is far from ordinary. (The obvious comparison is you-know-who in WW2. That war is such a huge, obvious event we probably don't notice how much of an outlier it is for a country to fight to the bitter end rather than sue for peace when they know they're screwed.)
 
Jack by the hedge said:
Ordinarily that might work, but if Putin thinks he has a divine mission to rebuild all the Russias then his threshold for giving up is far from ordinary. (The obvious comparison is you-know-who in WW2. That war is such a huge, obvious event we probably don't notice how much of an outlier it is for a country to fight to the bitter end rather than sue for peace when they know they're screwed.)
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I listen to the We Have Ways of Making You Talk podcast, and that's been a recurring theme of the podcasts lately, as they are in the end stages of the war. As you said, the fact that Japan and Germany just kept fighting when there was absolutely no hope.
 
Latest developments from the Lyman direction:


Moscow continues to lay the groundwork for a major offensive, and Ukraine continues to do everything it can to disrupt those preparations. In this installment, Moscow sends mobik assault squads, "reinforced" by drone barrier troops, to scrabble for a few square meters of terrain. The idea is to expand their bridgehead at any cost, creating space for a larger offensive to follow. To the people fond of saying that Moscow keeps grinding forward, this is what that looks like on the ground. Maybe it looked scarier a year or two ago.

Anyway, things continue to shape up for a major showdown between a large mass of Russian forces on the offensive, and the newly-constituted Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps, which has been deployed to meet them head-on. The outcome of that clash will depend in part on the success of these preparatory operations by both sides: Moscow sacrificing men at a horrendous rate, to try to gain a more favorable jumping-off position for the main offensive, and Ukraine using every trick in the book besides meat waves, to try to sap their momentum before it develops.
 
bsky.app

ChrisO_wiki (@chriso-wiki.bsky.social)

1/ Unarmed, injured Russian soldiers are being used as "meat probes" to "trample mines" with their feet, according to a man who has recorded a video appealing for help. His commander tells the wounded: "You are not needed, cripples! Go and die." ⬇️
bsky.app bsky.app
Unarmed, injured Russian soldiers are being used as "meat probes" to "trample mines" with their feet, according to a man who has recorded a video appealing for help. His commander tells the wounded: "You are not needed, cripples! Go and die."
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bsky.app

ChrisO_wiki (@chriso-wiki.bsky.social)

1/ Russian commanders are said to be using FPV drones to attack their own soldiers if they fall back from assaults on Ukrainian positions. It's a modern equivalent of the Stalin-era 'blocking detachments' which shot Soviet soldiers who attempted to retreat. ⬇️
bsky.app bsky.app
Russian commanders are said to be using FPV drones to attack their own soldiers if they fall back from assaults on Ukrainian positions. It's a modern equivalent of the Stalin-era 'blocking detachments' which shot Soviet soldiers who attempted to retreat.
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This is from 6 days ago. I took a break given all the various other shitstorms.
In another indication of manpower shortage Russian military police are being deployed as assault troops. This is met with glee as they seem to be universally despised. Taken with the above story about drones being used by Russian officers to attack their own retreating troops, the use of MPs signals to me at least that they're desperate for troops.
bsky.app

ChrisO_wiki (@chriso-wiki.bsky.social)

1/ Increasing numbers of Russian military policemen (VPs) are reportedly being deployed as assault troops, due to a shortage of manpower along the front lines in Ukraine. The news is being greeted with glee by Russian warbloggers, who detest the corrupt and often brutal VPs. ⬇️
bsky.app bsky.app
 
One important thing to remember is that we're seeing expendable troops being used in preliminary shaping operations. Moscow is holding back a substantial force of soldiers for the main offensive. I think in a month or so, we'll get a chance to see how the current cream of the Russian army performs.

And we'll get to see whether the Ukrainians can make all their training and western equipment pay off.
 
Ukraine's allies pledge €21bn (£18bn, $24bn) in new military support for Kyiv, following talks with 50 countries in Brussels

Germany's Defence Minister Boris Pistorius says peace appears "out of reach in the immediate future" given Russian aggression

Elsewhere, Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff has arrived in Russia, the Kremlin says.

Earlier, the UK gave details of a £450m package of military support, which includes money from Norway, with funds for hundreds of thousands of drones

www.bbc.co.uk

Ukraine war live updates: Ukraine allies hold news conference from Brussels summit as Trump envoy in Moscow

Representatives from 50 countries have been meeting in Brussels as the UK announces further military support for Kyiv.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
 
theprestige said:
Anyway, things continue to shape up for a major showdown between a large mass of Russian forces on the offensive, and the newly-constituted Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps, which has been deployed to meet them head-on.
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It is good that the Ukrainians are prepared, but are they sure they know where the blow will land? I WW2 the Russians were masters in concealing where an offensive would take place.
 
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