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Cont: 2024 Election Thread part 2

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arthwollipot said:
I agree. I thought he would lose narrowly against Biden but against Harris/Walz? It will be a landslide that makes other landslides look like minor slippage.
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If only the Democrats had listened to you, Joe Biden would still be the nominee.
 
New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds Harris leading Trump and outperforming Biden against Trump; enthusiasm to vote among Democrats having risen substantially

Post author:Charles Franklin

Post published:August 7, 2024

Post category:Poll Release

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds Vice President Kamala Harris is the choice for president of 52% of registered voters and former President Donald Trump is the choice of 48%. Among likely voters, Harris receives 53% and Trump 47%. These results include voters who initially did not choose Harris or Trump but who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose.


https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2024/08/07/mlspsc21-release/
 
Well, I sure hope those predictions are right, the pendulum swings, and the MAGA movement drops dead. I am inclined to think it will, as I think this kind of collapse is a bit like waking up from a dream. People's bandwagon mentality allows them to follow a course without thinking until they jump off and pretend they did not realize what they were doing. Once the shift occurs, nobody will turn out to have been one of the bad guys. Everyone was in the resistance.

But I suspect there will be a mess for a while, and the beast will only be dormant, waiting to be re-awoken by the next demagogue when enough people have forgotten enough history.
 
bruto said:
Well, I sure hope those predictions are right, the pendulum swings, and the MAGA movement drops dead. I am inclined to think it will, as I think this kind of collapse is a bit like waking up from a dream. People's bandwagon mentality allows them to follow a course without thinking until they jump off and pretend they did not realize what they were doing. Once the shift occurs, nobody will turn out to have been one of the bad guys. Everyone was in the resistance.

But I suspect there will be a mess for a while, and the beast will only be dormant, waiting to be re-awoken by the next demagogue when enough people have forgotten enough history.
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Good way to put it, colalpse. Tipping point is also a term we use. I think the Walz entry was the tipping point. Trump will sink to Michael Dukakis level of ridiculous.
 
lionking said:
The Middle East is a non issue.

But what is, is that Americans wanted a credible alternative to Trump. They have one, and nothing will now change the impending landslide.
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I think its true that the middle east is not a significant issue for most voters.

The problem is the secondary effects a larger conflict might have. An earlier post mentioned rises in oil prices and potential recession if an escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran. That would certainly affect the Democrats, even if voters don't care much about Israel itself.
 
The Don said:
A lot of never Trumpers suddenly find that he's a wonderful human being who would make a fine President as the election approaches. :mad:
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Do you have anything to support this? Never Trumpers kind of means "never Trump" and they would probably sit out the election, vote third party, or a write in. I understand that you're kind of the doom-and-gloom guy but this is a claim that should be backed up.
 
plague311 said:
Do you have anything to support this? Never Trumpers kind of means "never Trump" and they would probably sit out the election, vote third party, or a write in. I understand that you're kind of the doom-and-gloom guy but this is a claim that should be backed up.
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Shady Vance was a self-proclaimed Never Trumper.
 
"Never-Trumpers" means Republicans who said they'd never support Trump, at least not in a primary against other Republicans. But history has already shown twice that they do vote for him in the general election, when he's the only Republican left. I don't know why anybody would expect that to change the third time.
 
plague311 said:
Do you have anything to support this? Never Trumpers kind of means "never Trump" and they would probably sit out the election, vote third party, or a write in. I understand that you're kind of the doom-and-gloom guy but this is a claim that should be backed up.
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So many, Vance, Cruz McConnell, Hayley, heck the handful of Republicans who have stuck to their guns are the exception.
 
I'm listening to Trump at Mar a Lago. The amount of craziness coming out of his mouth is gobsmacking. It's one lie right after another. Literally. I haven't heard one truthful thing out of his mouth. Not one.

He's really one sick puppy. I could make a Kristi Noem reference here....
 
dirtywick said:
i think trump was a weak candidate against biden and he's absolutely collapsing while harris has stepped up to the moment. i think it's incredible as well how obvious it's suddenly become to what seems like the whole country.

and i think that trump has damaged the gop so much that that it's become trainwreck of circus clowns that aren't going to be able to dig him out of this one.
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I found myself nodding at every single word.

arthwollipot said:
I agree. I thought he would lose narrowly against Biden but against Harris/Walz? It will be a landslide that makes other landslides look like minor slippage.
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I've already staked claim to the biggest win since Reagan.

And boy, is that going to hurt.
 
Trump is now fixated on his crowd size and complaining how the media isn't reporting the huge crowd size...hundreds of thousands, 80,000, while Harris gets maybe 1500.

Now he's going on about Georgia and how it wasn't an honest election.

Fact checkers are going to be very, very busy.
 
Stacyhs said:
Trump is now fixated on his crowd size and complaining how the media isn't reporting the huge crowd size...hundreds of thousands, 80,000, while Harris gets maybe 1500.

Now he's going on about Georgia and how it wasn't an honest election.

Fact checkers are going to be very, very busy.
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Not really - he repeats the same crap time and time again so they just have to grab the relevant report they did for the first time he came up with the lie - probably 2016….
 
arthwollipot said:
I agree. I thought he would lose narrowly against Biden but against Harris/Walz? It will be a landslide that makes other landslides look like minor slippage.
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I wouldn't get too comfortable. Remember, we have an electoral college with a winner take all system. That means, he could lose the popular vote again and win the EC by 70+ votes. Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% and got the exact same margin in 2020.

Its a weird system that does the exact opposite of what it was intended to do.
 
I mean we also have a candidate who has openly declared he has no intention of following the democratic process and a SCOTUS ready to declare him GodKing.

At this point optimism is all a game of what level you want to look at the game at and what level is most likely to be how the real world plays out is a super difficult question to ask.

Yet again we're back at "We can win but it's still largely a game of how crazy Donald Trump wants to get and how much he can get away with."
 
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