Merged 2024 Election Thread

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Its academic at this point because it is too risky to switch now that Biden is running but he shouldn't have run, in 2020, more or less ran saying he was only running once to beat Trump. It wouldn't have been a risk for him to make good on that.

It clearly doesn't have to be someone unquely dynamic, that's silly, unless you think Biden was uniquely dynamic in 2020. But again, you are basically right, its too late. The only way they could do it would be for him to announce at the convention that he has some new health issue that will keep him from running and then nominate someone else or actually have delegates vote on someone. Won't happen but I can dream.

The theoretical candidate wouldn't need to be uniquely dynamic because Biden is, but rather because they would need that quality to overcome the inherent risk in not going with a successful incumbent.

Whether it's today or a year ago, it's still not clear to me who that candidate would be.

A couple of people have mentioned Newsom. Aside from the issues with him I've already pointed out, California is experiencing a massive budget deficit right now, so he'd be crucified on that. I'm not sure what would have to run on other than not being old.
 
But who is the candidate? There are risks associated with changing candidates and I don't think it's unreasonable for Democrats to look at the successes of the Biden presidency and think they could build a campaign around that.

A very few months before NZ's general election Labour was languishing a distant second to the incumbent National Party. Seeing a disaster, Labour took the step of replacing the leader - who had held the job for mere months - with the very popular Jacinda Ardern and won an unlikely victory.

Change when you're in trouble can be a very good thing. I believe almost anyone else would win for the Democrats and it's not too late to change.

I'd bet my life nothing changes, though.

And I would appreciate if you would stop LYING about my responses--I never said he was as bad as Hitler--...

There are others who have said he is and the response was aimed at them as well as you.

As to the "could be", the earth could be struck by an asteroid next week.

... that may be why you aren't getting my urgency, you will not be immediately affected by the disaster.

I was assured before 2016 that TRUMP winning would have an affect on the entire world. It made zero difference here, and I don't believe the next TRUMP presidency will either.

Sigh...you are not listening! There were barriers in place during his last term. He now basically controls the Supreme Court, he has the entire GOP other than a few stragglers completely complicit in his plans, he has proclaimed he will weaponize the Justice Department.

Hyperbole much?

He does not control either SCOTUS or the House. If he tries to do something unconstitutional, I'm confident he'd be stopped. The idea that he controls the Republicans in Congress is laughable given the failures of Crazy Marge and pals to oust Johnson.

He is *not* the same person he was in those 4 years...

2More crystal ball gazing.

No! It is Trump's making and the GOP's fault for being cowards and not stopping it. Do the Dems share some blame? Yes--but to say 100% is pure nonsense.

Wrong.

If Bernie (or anyone else but Hillary) had been the opponent in 2016, we wouldn't be here now, and Trump would be back to being the laughing-stock he always was.

The Democrats screwed up royally, all because Hillary somehow deserved the niomination.

Won't happen but I can dream.

Hardly even worth dreaming, but the recriminations and inquests into why he lost will be hilarious if he loses, so it's all good.
 
The theoretical candidate wouldn't need to be uniquely dynamic because Biden is, but rather because they would need that quality to overcome the inherent risk in not going with a successful incumbent.

Whether it's today or a year ago, it's still not clear to me who that candidate would be.

A couple of people have mentioned Newsom. Aside from the issues with him I've already pointed out, California is experiencing a massive budget deficit right now, so he'd be crucified on that. I'm not sure what would have to run on other than not being old.
He's glib, rich, handsome too? I don't think he'd work either, too much baggage and easy to make Californian look too lefty, with newsome that's mostly guilt by association. I like Whtmer and Polis, I think most of their baggage just means Trump voter's wouldn't vote for them. But again, basically just academic at this point. Still given what polls have been showing, Biden's incumbency isn't helping him much and if he had stepped down voluntarily it would have gotten rid of the stigma of the party forcing him out.
 
Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Seems you lost that bet.

Nah, bogus claims don't cound so let's see what you have?

No, I didn't. You said, "I've got $10 on you hearing crickets," which means there would be no answer. But Stanfr posted an extensive answer. Just because you claim his answer is "bogus" does not negate the fact he did, indeed, answer. So, yeah, you did lose that bet.

But how is Trump similar to Hitler? Let me count the ways.

Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
1. Both had tyrannical and abusive fathers. Hitler was emotionally and physically abused. Trump was emotionally abused.

Srsly?

You'd actually raise that. Brilliant. Half the people in the world are like Hitler.

Yes, Srsly. I listed several "similarities" between them. Having an abusive, tyrannical father IS a similarity between those two particular people. Or are you claiming they did NOT have abusive, tyrannical father in common? Your attempt to equate that to my saying "Half the people in the world are like Hitler," is absurd. But absurdities are often utilized by those who have no other response.

By the way, I never said that having abusive and tyrannical fathers is why Hitler and Trump are alike." I listed it as one of many similarities. At least be honest enough not to twist what I say to fit your agenda.

There is most certainly a link between an abusive childhood and NPR:

Clarifying the link between childhood abuse history and psychopathic traits in adult criminal offenders

Childhood abuse is a risk factor for the development of externalizing characteristics and disorders, including antisocial personality disorder and psychopathy. However, the precise relationships between particular types of childhood maltreatment and subsequent antisocial and psychopathic traits remain unclear. Using a large sample of incarcerated adult male criminal offenders (n = 183), the current study confirmed that severity of overall childhood maltreatment was linked to severity of both psychopathy and antisocial personality disorder in adulthood. Moreover, this relationship was particularly strong for physical abuse and the antisocial facet of psychopathy.

Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
2. Hitler believed himself superior and destined to rule Germany. Trump believes himself superior and the only one who can "save American".
Like every other politician who's ever lived. As it happens, I don't believe Trump thinks that at all, whereas Dear Adolph definitely did. I think Trump is an insecure blowhard. Hitler didn't lie about his height that I'm aware of.

When you have to resort to such hyperbolic nonsense as claiming that "every politician who ever lived" believes they are superior, destined to rule and only they can save their country, it only weakens your position.

Of course, Trump is an insecure blowhard, but that is a characteristic of NPD!

Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD) is a psychological disorder characterized by a persistent pattern of grandiosity, fantasies of unlimited power or importance, and the need for admiration or special treatment. Core cognitive, affective, interpersonal, and behavioral features include impulsivity, volatility, attention-seeking, low self-esteem, and unstable interpersonal relationships
Maybe do a little research before opining on something.


Surely you have better...

Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
3. Hitler held rallies in which his adoring followers worshipped him. Trump holds rallies in which his adoring followers worship him, many believing he was sent by God.

Not yet...

Wow, that's some counter argument! Real National Debate Tournament quality!











Hey you found one!
That 1-3 so far.

I've supported everything I've said. Have you given a single rebuttal other than sarcastic quips? Not yet. Surely you can do better....


Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
5. Hitler on several occasions used the phrase "make Germany great again" Trump (falsely) claimed he invented MAGA...Make American Great Again.

Nah, old news. Winston Peters was on that track in the 1990s. Trump knowing Hitler said it would imply he reads and we both know that isn't the case.
1-4

So, being "old news" does not make it any less true. As usual, the point goes right over your head. They were preaching the same message: our country is not respected, it's falling apart and we need to make it like it used to be: GREAT!"

Hitler was a politician of the will, full of grandiose commitments and few detailed policies. His core was a commitment to make Germany great again, in the parlance of our day, to "take back his country". Detailed policy of how this would happen was rarely expounded even where it existed.

Hitler called it the Third Reich (Empire) because he saw it as the natural successor to the first German Holy Roman Empire and the second German empire under the Hapsburgs. In other words: Make Germany great again.

Trump on the 2016 campaign trail: “the world is laughing at us.”

Trump on the 2020 campaign trail: "You know, we're respected again. You may not feel it, although I think you do. You may not see it. You don't read about it from the fake news, but this country is respected again."

Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
6. Hitler took control of the newspapers through various methods giving control to the Nazi Party. Trump attacks the news media calling them "Fake News" so no one will believe them when they write negative stories about him.

Utter bollocks.

HuffPo, NYT, WaPo and many other outlets are as insanely anti-Trump as Fox et al are pro. Trump does not control the media.
1-5

Try reading for comprehension. I never said Trump controls the media. Once again, the point goes right past you. The point is that Hitler took control of the media so he could control what they said about him and what the German people could be led to believe.
Trump does not have the power to control what all the media says, but conservative media obsequiously panders to him. They only print/say positive things about him and either ignore or downplay anything negative about him that cannot be ignored. Trump admitted he uses the term 'fake news' to spread distrust of the media so people won't believe any negative reports about him. MAGA live in a pro-Trump bubble, getting their info from Truth Social which is nothing but a lie-a-thon, Fox, OAN, Newsmax and right-wing radio.


Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
7. Hitler used bullying rhetoric. Trump uses bullying rhetoric often to intimidate his opponents.
:dl:

That's gold! Right after berating me for my attack on Hillary you are absolutely equating the Brownshirts and Gestapo with Trump saying mean things.

This is a lot more fun than I expected.

1-6

Seriously, dude; do you have a reading comprehension problem?

Apparently, you don't know what "rhetoric" means: it's "the use of persuasive language".

The Brownshirts and Gestapo were not "rhetoric". The Brownshirts were para-military thugs who beat up and killed people. The Gestapo was the secret police.

But thanks for admitting you were 'attacking' Hillary. And your weird interpretation of what she said is just further evidence that you may have a reading comprehension problem.

Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
8. Hitler lied as easily as he breathed. Trump is a pathological liar.
My mum always told me that only one bloke never lied, and since she said his name was Jesus and I think he didn't exist I'm happy to say the man who never lied hasn't been born yet.

Did Hillary lie about Benghazi?
1-7

Do you really need to have explained to you the difference between what I said and your off-the-wall comparison fallacy? Apparently, you do:

Everyone lies, I didn't say otherwise. But not everyone who lies is a pathological liar.
"Pathological lying is a compulsive pattern of telling untruths that may be related to or caused by mental health conditions or trauma."

"Pathological lying is a sign of some mental health conditions, especially personality disorders.
People with certain conditions — including narcissistic personality disorder and antisocial personality disorder — tend to act in manipulative or deceitful ways regardless of the consequences and upset it might cause.

Again with Hillary Clinton who has nothing to do with the similarities between Hitler and Trump. The more you post, the more I think your interpretation of what she said has more to do with WHO said it rather than WHAT she said.
Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
9. Psychologists/psychiatrists who have never met Trump have studied them and believe they had/have Narcissistic Personality Disorder, including paranoia.
FTFY

1-8

Ah...falling back on the old "But the Barry Goldwater Rule!" excuse. When someone has their femur sticking up through their skin after hitting a tree, a doctor doesn't have to see them in person to say "Hey, you've got a compound fracture of the femur!"

Mary [Trump], a clinical psychologist, said her uncle failed to develop human emotion because his father created an abusive and traumatic home life.

There are decades of Trump interviews, speeches, articles, and interviews from those who personally interacted with him for years, etc. There's far more information about him from those than sitting down with him for an hour in person.


Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
No, Trump is not Hitler and no one knows if he would become as bad as Hitler.
Nice of you to spend all that time losing an argument only to admit you have no idea what you're talking about at the end.

I strongly suggest a course in reading comprehension as this is one of several things you think I've said when I haven't. Really, the only thing you've done is to make snarky and irrelevant retorts with no facts disproving a thing I've said yet you think I'VE lost this argument? :boggled:
 
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That's who we were told Biden was supposed to be. It was the entirety of the case for him that anybody ever mustered.

I definitely remember when that happened. There was a parade and everything. “Vote for Joe Biden because he’s Johnny Unbeatable!”. I still have the t-shirt.
 
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A very few months before NZ's general election Labour was languishing a distant second to the incumbent National Party. Seeing a disaster, Labour took the step of replacing the leader - who had held the job for mere months - with the very popular Jacinda Ardern and won an unlikely victory.

Change when you're in trouble can be a very good thing. I believe almost anyone else would win for the Democrats and it's not too late to change.

Cool. Who’s the Jacinda Ardern for the Democratic Party?
 
He's glib, rich, handsome too? I don't think he'd work either, too much baggage and easy to make Californian look too lefty, with newsome that's mostly guilt by association. I like Whtmer and Polis, I think most of their baggage just means Trump voter's wouldn't vote for them. But again, basically just academic at this point. Still given what polls have been showing, Biden's incumbency isn't helping him much and if he had stepped down voluntarily it would have gotten rid of the stigma of the party forcing him out.

Without a viable option waiting in the wings, there would be no point.
 
I haven't seen any Democrats say his age is not an issue. But we do get sick of "Concern Trolls" coming up with useless advice in editorial after editorial, post after post. "Biden is old! The Democratic party should instigate a massive bout of infighting amongst themselves as we head into one of the most consequential elections in history! Really, it's for the best!"

It really gets annoying when you consider that Trump is old too, but the guys who say Biden should step down never seem to say the same for Trump unless you push them on it.

You get Trump or Biden. Johnny Unbeatable is not coming. You get Trump or Biden. No third-party candidate has a chance. You get Trump or Biden. We may desperately want a different choice, but it's not going to happen. You get Trump or Biden.
I know good writing when I see it, and that, my friend, is very good.
 
There are a number of factors why Biden running again.

No.1 is being the incumbent: no other Democrat apart from HRC has the name recognition.
It's rare that a President doesn't get elected to a second term.
It is pretty much unheard of that a Party can switch candidates and still keep the White House.

This is particularly problematic now, as no one, not even Biden, seems to be able to beat Trump in media attention.
Every other nominee would face a big: "Who??" from many voters.

Unfortunately, it actually is too much to ask for Democrats to pick a better candidate.


Of course, if you are of the cynical sort:
Biden losing gives Dems an advantage in 2028. Biden winning means almost certainly losing in 2028 to whoever comes after Trump.
 
Rasmussen's Twitter account has been making all kinds of posts about Biden's mental health using that video that Sharkeu posted. It is also seems to be posting a ton of anti-vax crap. I remember Rasmussen being pretty suspect, but didn't remember it being this unhinged. Is someone there knocking back on Grandma's old cough medicine or did they get some edgy teenager to do comms?

Link
 
... hyperbolic nonsense ...

Accusing me of hyperbolic nonsense when you're trying to claim TRUMP is as bad (or will be worse than) Hitler is really funny.

Do you think people are more likely to vote Biden is the opponent is a demon?
 
Bernie Sander would have been the chance to beat Trump and put the country on a different track.
Maybe.

But by being terrible, the GOP allows the Dems to be terrible and still win with whoever.
 
Rasmussen's Twitter account has been making all kinds of posts about Biden's mental health using that video that Sharkeu posted. It is also seems to be posting a ton of anti-vax crap. I remember Rasmussen being pretty suspect, but didn't remember it being this unhinged. Is someone there knocking back on Grandma's old cough medicine or did they get some edgy teenager to do comms?

Link

WTAF is that crap??!
 
Elizabeth Warren, but you missed that boat, so the closest is probably Newsom.

Warren finished third in the 2020 Democratic primary and Newsom has a 47% disapproval rating in his own state. I’m not sure where you’re getting the idea that either one of them are popular.
 
Bernie Sander would have been the chance to beat Trump and put the country on a different track.
Maybe.

But by being terrible, the GOP allows the Dems to be terrible and still win with whoever.

Sanders couldn’t make it out of the Democratic primary. I’m not sure why you think he’s got the juice to win a general election.
 
ISTR several polls last year which showed Biden was the only Democrat contender who stood any chance of defeating Trump. So insisting they should have picked someone else seems a bit ... odd.
 
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