Oh, come on! Here is the probability that Israel will attack Iran with nuclear weapons: 0.
Exactly. The same probability Britain would attack Argentina with nukes.
Oh, come on! Here is the probability that Israel will attack Iran with nuclear weapons: 0.
Israel already won this round by a country mile.
Iran sends hundreds of missiles/drones over of which only a few got through and the damage/loss of life is minimal.
Iran says it "achieved all it's objectives"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710
Despite what they say publicly, if I were an Iranian military strategist, my takeaway from this would be that we (Iran) cannot hurt Israel with our conventional weapons; therefore, we must accelerate our development of nuclear weapons.
Israel had conducted a limited, targeted attack against Hamas leaders at a known location. In response, Iran indiscriminately launched over 300 drones and missiles at Israel. Who escalated?
On April 1st, the Israeli Air Force 'allegedly' conducted a sophisticated cross-border and precise raid into Damascus, Syria, with the result being the elimination of 7 high-ranking Iranian military (Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, among other Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps -- IRGC -- commanders)...
I thought, is this the first time a nuclear power has been attacked by another country?
Looking it up, it has happened once before. Argentina attacked the UK, starting the Falklands War.
Let's hope Israel can be as level headed as the Brits when it comes to the power at their disposal.
So you think Israel is going to conduct an indiscriminate night bombing campaign to de-house Iranians?
I200 rockets and missiles was incredibly disproportionate
It was a show of defiance in response to the Damascus attack. It satisfies the hardliners in Iran but was ineffectual enough to give Israel a reason to limit its own response - there remains space for de-escalation.
I don't think Israel will take advantage of the that space for de-escalation, but that's only because Bibi is an ******* who depends upon hardliners to keep his criminal ass in power.
I agree, I'm giving the point to Iran on this one. Israel didn't swat the missiles down by standing on the Temple Mount and swinging its dick around like a helicopter. If the US and Jordan hadn't intercepted 90% of the strike, casualties would not have been minimal. Iran demonstrated that Israel alone is vulnerable without damaging anything but their pride.I disagree.
Israel's anti-aircraft and missile defense systems are well known. The attack was choreographed well in advance and because of that Israel, the U.S. and Jordan all had time to prepare.
This missile/drone attack was calculated and planned to cause little death or destruction.
It was a show of defiance in response to the Damascus attack. It satisfies the hardliners in Iran but was ineffectual enough to give Israel a reason to limit its own response - there remains space for de-escalation.
I'm hopeful they will. I'm sure they'll piss and moan and swear bloody vengeance, because something about the heat in the area turns leadership into authoritarian **** fer brains, but even Bibi can't be stupid enough to think starting a remote war with people who can shoot back would be a good idea.I don't think Israel will take advantage of the that space for de-escalation, but that's only because Bibi is an ******* who depends upon hardliners to keep his criminal ass in power.
Really.it's not a wish.
I'd like to be able to disagree. I really would.But pure Bayesian reasoning suggests that we shouldn't expect Israel to do the clear-headed thing.
I'm not sure "do nothing" would send the right signal to Israel's enemies.
Why should Israel de-escalate? Is Iran going to de-escalate its support for terrorism against Israel?
Israel already won this round by a country mile.
Iran sends hundreds of missiles/drones over of which only a few got through and the damage/loss of life is minimal.
Iran says it "achieved all it's objectives"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710
Pathetic.
This.
Israel succeeded with a targeted strategic hit against a military target,even though consulates are a no-no.
And Iran: injured an Arab girl.
AND Iran thinks this is what revenge is.
Israel showed that it has a functioning de-facto military alliance in the region. Iran has Yemen. Iran has demonstrated that they are unable or unwilling to attack Israel seriously and come e.g. to Hamas' aid in any substantial way.
Israel could now cash in on this win, develop its de-facto alliance with various muslim countries in the region and tackle the Hamas from a position of increased strength and respect.
Or Bibi could botch this soft pitch.
Why should Israel de-escalate? Is Iran going to de-escalate its support for terrorism against Israel?