Split Thread Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla

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Fast Eddie B said:
I’ve always been a fan of the “Efficient Market Hypothesis”. In short, a stock price is always where it “should be”. Whether it was “overpriced” or “undervalued” only makes sense retroactively. Not perfect, given folks trading on inside information, or other market manipulation. But a good first order assumption nonetheless.

TSLA @ 163.57 is exactly where the market thinks it should be - “invisible hand” and all that. If it drops to 50, we’ll look back and say it was still overpriced even @ 163.57. If it soars over the next year to 500, folks will be sorry for having missed a buying opportunity.

Only time will tell…
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The EMH is rubbish. Try here for one debunking.


Wrt Tesla specifically, the company is entering a downward spiral. Sales will be flat this year and start to decline in 2025. This isn't factored into the company's share price. And, of the 'Magnificent Seven stocks', it's the only one where earnings are expected to decline this year. Finally it is the most expensive of the seven; currently trading at approximately 56 time earnings.
 
a_unique_person said:
Musk mandates installation and demo of Full Self Driving on all new Teslas.

https://electrek.co/2024/03/25/elon...mo-full-self-driving-beta-every-new-delivery/

Only it's a "Beta" version of the software. That could be a problem.
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How so?

The reasons for doing this are obvious. Firstly it gives them more data to train their AI. Secondly it ensures that customers are familiar with the operating procedures. Thirdly it helps to promote it (maybe).

Customers don't have to use the FSD mode, but why wouldn't you at least try it out? That will give Tesla a lot of valuable user feedback, which can't be bad.

But of course to a Tesla/Musk hater it has to be bad. And it could get a lot worse. Eventually FSD will be so good that insurance companies will offer discounts for its use, as it dramatically reduces 'accidents'. Then all new cars will have to have it by law. EV haters will be spitting tacks!

But by then many people won't have a car anyway, as they will be happy riding in a 'robotaxi' with no steering wheel. This will particularly apply to city dwellers, but FSD would be great for rural drivers too.

Most modern cars have cruise control and lane assist etc. already. Fully autonomous driving is the next logical step. It can't come soon enough IMO. So many bad drivers causing 'accidents' all the time that are killing thousands and maiming millions. Insurance rates are stupidly high because modern cars are designed to crumple to protect the occupants, and have potentially lethal airbags because people refuse to wear seatbelts or drive at a safe speed.

And now we have Tesla owners complaining that FSD drives at 28 mph in a 30 mph area. Too slow! We need FSD to save us from ourselves...
 
That’s an awful lot of very specific comments over the words ‘that could be a problem’.
Are you sure, you’re reacting to the correct person?
 
Doing beta testing in a life or death situation is crazy. FSD is years later for an obvious reason. The AI technology required to be foolproof is going to be very hard to achieve. There are going to be so many edge cases that can't be foreseen.

It's a whole level of AI above that used in the LLM products. It has to be done in real time using computers that can't be very powerful due to size and power restraints.
 
Roger Ramjets said:
When did Musk say the Cybertruck's glass was 'nuclear explosion proof'?

Breaking Cybertruck’s Armor Glass (So You Don’t Have To)
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Pretty good video.

The thunderfoot video, at the 5:17 mark clearly shows the Semi not the Cybertruck.

I found another video from a few years back suggesting that Tesla uses the Armor
Glass, transparent Aluminum Oxynitride glass, for both the Cybertruck and the Semi.
But I couldn't find anything, anywhere else, more substantial than that.



Still no comments on the third launch... I wonder why.
 
Tesla is apparently giving Tesla Owners free FSD for April.

I just used it on a 60 mile round trip. It is very impressive, but the car id try to kill me about 5 times. Keep a careful eye on Teslas around you.
 
Shalamar said:
Tesla is apparently giving Tesla Owners free FSD for April.

I just used it on a 60 mile round trip. It is very impressive, but the car id try to kill me about 5 times. Keep a careful eye on Teslas around you.
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I imagine being nearly killed 5 times in 60 miles would make an impression on anyone.
 
Lplus said:
I imagine being nearly killed 5 times in 60 miles would make an impression on anyone.
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Each instance of a mistake I immediately took over control of the vehicle. I'm mostly curious at it's limitations. What Tesla has done is impressive, but it's far from ready.
 
I've seen cybertrucks on the roads here in Austin probably a dozen times now. They look smaller than I imagined from seeing the pics, I still wouldn't mind trying one out though.
 
Ziggurat said:
Given what day it is, are you sure about that?
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Considering it was begun yesterday, my car now has FSD, and I haven't paid for it.

The email I received:

Tesla said:
Your Full Self-Driving (Supervised) Trial starts now!

You've been granted a 30-day complimentary trial of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) for your Model Y ending in 083330.

Under your supervision, Full Self-Driving (Supervised) can drive your Tesla almost anywhere. It will make lane changes, select forks to follow your navigation route, navigate around other vehicles and objects, and make left and right turns. You and anyone you authorize must use additional caution and remain attentive. It does not make your vehicle autonomous. Do not become complacent.

This trial will end on April 30, 2024.
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i think this is a pretty risky move. you know there’s plenty of journalists waiting in the lurch for the first free demo tesla fatality whether it’s fair or not
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
Wouldn't buy anything from a company that considers me a guinea pig for buying their products.

And that's what this is.
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It's a free trial. Lots of companies give out free trials in an attempt to hook more people to buy their products. Of course, most free trials don't have the potential to kill people.

What's interesting is why Tesla are suddenly doing this (and mandating the demo on delivery at the cost of huge inconvenience to their sales staff). I suspect they are in desperate need of the money a bump in take up of FSD would provide.
 
I enjoyed this video about the cyber truck from a channel called Adam Something



It’ll be interesting to see what they look like when they’re a year or two old.
 
Puppycow said:
I enjoyed this video about the cyber truck from a channel called Adam Something



It’ll be interesting to see what they look like when they’re a year or two old.
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Excellent. Well worth watching :)
 
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