Split Thread Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla

[The Great Zaganza]

current patent law is nothing but a recipe for grifting.
So I don't care how exactly it's done.
The main thing is that the taxpayer get a return on their investment if companies start making profits as a result of technology transfer.
Before they move their profits into tax havens that is.

Given that most Pharma Companies PR department is bigger than their R&D, that should be a no-brainer.

 

[Roboramma]

current patent law is nothing but a recipe for grifting.
So I don't care how exactly it's done.
The main thing is that the taxpayer get a return on their investment if companies start making profits as a result of technology transfer.
Before they move their profits into tax havens that is.

Given that most Pharma Companies PR department is bigger than their R&D, that should be a no-brainer.

If we want to consider whether or not your idea has merit, then we need to actually look at how it would play out, which requires some specifics (I'm only asking for a vague general plan here, not in depth details).

I'm sympathetic to the idea that as you say taxpayers and society in general aren't getting a return on their investment from publicly funded science. Of course, in that case the most obvious solution is to stop funding the thing that we're not getting a return on.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

Except those preorders aren't being executed.

If you didn't preorder, you can order a CyberTruck now and get it within a 2024. Do you think Tesla has the capacity to fulfill two million preorders and normal purchases in a 2024? They don't.

The 'preorders' were not commitments of any sort. They were placeholders. The price wasn't even locked in, which is why so many people who put down the completely refundable $100 are not pulling the trigger.

We are a single data point, but…

…we put the $100 down early on and have eagerly followed each report of progress for about 4 years. But at today’s price and range and lack of pull-through SuperChargers for when towing, we almost certainly will pass if and when our place in line comes up. A gas truck just makes more sense for our use case.

As an aside, we’re on a camping trip in FL, and are hoping to see a CyberTruck in the wild. Closest we’ve come is one on a transporter headed south on I-75.

 

[Ziggurat]

no, you didn't, or i wasn't clear.

the amount of Corporate Socialism in the US, in the shape of Regulatory Protectionism, Knowledge Transfer from US funded institutions, bailouts, cheap prison labor and letting employees get food stamps is mind-boggling.

Sure, but that has nothing to do with my post. SpaceX has materially contributed to space flight for everyone by demonstrating that reusability is achievable in practice, not just in principle. And now every launch provider will do it. That’s not a benefit confined to SpaceX.

It is 100% fair to say that this has made Corporate America completely uncompetitive

Except SpaceX is incredibly competitive. So even though that might be true in many cases, it’s not true in the specific case we’re talking about.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

would SpaceX be competitive without a guaranteed income from NASA?

 

[theprestige]

would SpaceX be competitive without a guaranteed income from NASA?

Would ULA? Would Arianespace be competitive without a guaranteed income from the ESA?

And what guaranteed income would that be, exactly? What stipend is the US government currently paying SpaceX, simply to stay afloat?

 

[Marcus]

Except those preorders aren't being executed.

If you didn't preorder, you can order a CyberTruck now and get it within a 2024. Do you think Tesla has the capacity to fulfill two million preorders and normal purchases in a 2024? They don't.

The 'preorders' were not commitments of any sort. They were placeholders. The price wasn't even locked in, which is why so many people who put down the completely refundable $100 are not pulling the trigger.

I don't expect those 2 million people to actually receive cybertrucks. What I do expect is for production to be sold out for the foreseeable future, not a bad position to be in for an auto maker. Tesla says that just the Cyberbeast version will be available in 2024, even that seems a bit optimistic though.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

A remark about SpaceX, if I may.

I think the quest for a manned mission to another planet is fundamentally misguided, and a complete waste of resources.
It seems clear to me that Mars etc. sounds attractive to the like of Musk because they think they can built their Libertarian Dream Society there.

But from a point of view to Human Survival, Deep Sea exploration would be safer, cheaper, more likely to succeed and guaranteed to create revenue on the way.

But it has the drawback that you have to deal with National Governments, which is unacceptable to Musk and the Libertarian billionaire Crowd.

 

[William Parcher]

Opps.

The word is oops.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

Tesla says that just the Cyberbeast version will be available in 2024, even that seems a bit optimistic though.

Pretty sure that’s not right.

A few CyberBeasts were initially delivered, but most being delivered now are the dual motor AWD version. Though only the “Foundation” trim that adds $20k.

 

[Marcus]

On the Tesla website right now, it says you can order a Cyberbeast for $96,390 for delivery in 2024. The "overly optimistic" part was my own invention based on their past performance, perhaps that part is wrong.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Even with cybertruck, it's hard to argue that it's not a success, pre- orders are up to 2 million.


https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-cybertruck-pre-orders-exceeded-2-million

Oh yes, the fully refundable $100 pre-orders that are extremely susceptible to padding as reported by a Galaxy Brain fansite. How many of those expressions of interests will turn into sales.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

would SpaceX be competitive without a guaranteed income from NASA?

No. Seeing as the company isn't competitive with a guaranteed income from NASA and a captive, high volume, customer in Starlink.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

I predict that Tesla will have huge delays in producing the cybertruck, and many recalls

 

[jeremyp]

Weaponized pedantry.

No, simply the truth.

Starlink.

Is that a laudable achievement? It's not obvious to me that it is even sustainable.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

I predict that Tesla will have huge delays in producing the cybertruck, and many recalls

Musk himself warned of a long period of ramping up production, due to many new and unique manufacturing processes involved. Ver 1 of anything is bound to have faults needing correction. I think people taking delivery now and position holders are well aware of both limitations. And many are likely to cancel or postpone delivery awaiting possible price reductions and improved quality over time.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

If they can't deliver cars, they can't deliver spare parts for repairs.

Hope no one buys a cybertruck as their only vehicle.

 

[Ziggurat]

would SpaceX be competitive without a guaranteed income from NASA?

Are you talking about at any point in its history, or right now?

SpaceX needed NASA contracts when it was starting, and would have gone under without them. But it delivered good value for the money, I wouldn't consider that to be corporate welfare. Right now, the Falcon program is profitable, and SpaceX is extremely competitive if not downright dominant with those launches.

Starship is obviously not making any money yet (it's still in development, that's expected), and without NASA funding they might not be doing it, or doing it much slower. But if they pull it off, if Starship works, they will have developed the heaviest lift capability we've ever had, and on that basis alone it's going to be competitive.

 

[theprestige]

No, simply the truth.

Irrelevant fact thrown in to change the subject.

Is that a laudable achievement? It's not obvious to me that it is even sustainable.

Wood-fired steam engines weren't sustainable, but they were an achievement nonetheless.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Irrelevant fact thrown in to change the subject.


Wood-fired steam engines weren't sustainable, but they were an achievement nonetheless.

Nope.

the first commercial steam engines were used to pump water out of coal mines, and so fuel was never a limitation.


Starlink does something old in a new way, but has no significant number of customers outside a warzone. And there Musk has decided to involve himself, making it unnecessarily unreliable. Without the Pentagon, Starlink would already be bankrupt.

Every honest analyst says it's not commercially viable.
And that is before you count the competiton.