How do we know a pandemic's over?

[jt512]

How do you define "abnormal"?

Well, here we go yet again. Pretty much everybody who is going to be vaccinated has been. Pretty much everybody who is going to be infected has been. Therefore, to yet again reiterate, we are at a status quo. The range of incidence that we are experiencing now is the new normal. Nothing, save a sterilizing vaccine, is going to change it. We are no longer in a pandemic. Covid-19 is endemic. This is the new normal.

 

[dann]

Well, here we go yet again and again and again:

Well, here we go yet again. Pretty much everybody who is going to be vaccinated has been and will be again and again because SARS-CoV-2 keeps mutating and evading immunity. Pretty much everybody who is going to be infected has been and will be again and again because SARS-CoV-2 keeps mutating and evading immunity. Therefore, to yet again reiterate, we are at a status quo and will be again and again because SARS-CoV-2 keeps mutating and evading immunity. The range of incidence that we are experiencing now goes up and down and will do so again and again because SARS-CoV-2 keeps mutating and evading immunity, which now is the new normal according to the gospel of jt512. Nothing, save a sterilizing vaccine, is going to change it. We are no longer in a pandemic. We are still at a pandemic, the leader in charge of WHO's COVID-19 response said so just ten days ago (see post 412), but for some (obvious) reason jt512 is adamant that Covid-19 is endemic and he lies about people at WHO saying the same thing. This is the new normal.

FTFY.

There's nothing normal about it, but it is obvious that jt512 won't stop making the same unsubstantiated claim again and again and again. As a former professional, jt512 ought to know about this stuff, but he keeps proving that he doesn't.


ETA: Where are those links and quotations I've been asking jt512 for since he started claiming that WHO representatives supported his claim that the pandemic is over? Has anybody seen them? He had a similar claim about the U.S. CDC and the ECDC. I would like to see links and quotations to those organizations, too.
ETA:

The US CDC, European CDC, and the WHO have all stated that Covid-19 is now endemic rather than pandemic.

I would really like to see those statements! From the organizations themselves and/or from:

Official representatives of the organizations, not just some rando within them.

Being a retired epidemiologist does't exempt one from having to come up with something more substantial than anecdotes.

 

[icerat]

Well, here we go yet again. Pretty much everybody who is going to be vaccinated has been. Pretty much everybody who is going to be infected has been.

Irrelevant to the question.

Therefore, to yet again reiterate, we are at a status quo.

A status quo implies some sort of stability. We don't remotely have any sort of stable situation.

The range of incidence that we are experiencing now is the new normal. Nothing, save a sterilizing vaccine, is going to change it. We are no longer in a pandemic. Covid-19 is endemic. This is the new normal.

Yes, I agree this is a "new normal" - but the "new normal" is chaotic - it's in no way stable or predictable in terms of if and when a new wave arrives or how big it will be. There is no baseline and no predictable expectation of future incidence.

Hence, it's epidemic, and it's happening globally, so it remains pandemic.

 

[dann]

Basically, an abnormally high incidence of a disease.

How do you define "abnormal"?

It has got to be something upwards of 'killing eight times more people than the flu and causing much more serious sequelae in many more people', since that appears to be the new normal according to the gospel of jt512.

 

[jt512]

There's nothing normal about it

You keep evading the question. What is going to change it? If the answer is nothing, then Covid has reached the endemic stage and, whether you and icerat like it or not, we are no longer in a pandemic.

 

[jt512]

Irrelevant to the question.



A status quo implies some sort of stability. We don't remotely have any sort of stable situation.

No, it doesn't.

Yes, I agree this is a "new normal"

Bingo.

- but the "new normal" is chaotic - it's in no way stable or predictable in terms of if and when a new wave arrives or how big it will be. There is no baseline and no predictable expectation of future incidence.

I disagree. We now have 4 years of data, including years with and without a vaccine.

I'll ask the question for now about the fifth time. Between vaccination and infection, we have reached an equilibrium level of immunity. Until we get a sterilizing vaccine, what is going to change? If the answer is nothing, then by definition, we are no longer in a pandemic. If you think otherwise, then you have to admit that we will be in a pandemic forever (or at least until we have a sterilizing vaccine), which contradcts the definition of "pandemic."

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Well, here we go yet again. Pretty much everybody who is going to be vaccinated has been. Pretty much everybody who is going to be infected has been. Therefore, to yet again reiterate, we are at a status quo. The range of incidence that we are experiencing now is the new normal. Nothing, save a sterilizing vaccine, is going to change it. We are no longer in a pandemic. Covid-19 is endemic. This is the new normal.

The pandemic is over because people in the US are resigned to being unable to do any more about it?

What about if said peak control measures have not been achieved in other countries?

What about if said peak control measures have not been achieved in each state?

What about if said peak control measures have not been achieved because a new variant of concern sweeps through the country?

 

[novaphile]

Yeah, and, as I have explained, you have been wrong ever since post 398.

Answer the question: How will you know when the pandemic is over? Or, equivalently, what does endemic Covid-19 look like to you?

It becomes endemic, when it is in low numbers in a small geographic area.

 

[jt512]

It becomes endemic, when it is in low numbers in a small geographic area.

Endemic implies neither of those conditions.

 

[jt512]

The pandemic is over because people in the US are resigned to being unable to do any more about it?

Strawman.

What about if said peak control measures have not been achieved in each state?

If there are any states planning to do more than they already have, they are doing a good job of keeping those plans a secret.

What about if said peak control measures have not been achieved in other countries?

Which countries are planning to take those additional measures?

What about if said peak control measures have not been achieved because a new variant of concern sweeps through the country?

Just because the pandemic is over doesn't mean there can't be another one. The same is true of any disease, including flu, for instance.

 

[icerat]

I disagree. We now have 4 years of data, including years with and without a vaccine.

Yes, and we have 4 years of various talking head "experts" proclaiming each wave the last.

It remains a highly unstable situation

I'll ask the question for now about the fifth time. Between vaccination and infection, we have reached an equilibrium level of immunity.

Codswallop.

Until we get a sterilizing vaccine, what is going to change? If the answer is nothing, then by definition, we are no longer in a pandemic.

So your definition of a pandemic is that if the pandemic isn't going to end - because we do nothing to end it - then, by definition, it has ended?

If you think otherwise, then you have to admit that we will be in a pandemic forever (or at least until we have a sterilizing vaccine), which contradcts the definition of "pandemic."

I'm yet to a definition of "pandemic" that is time limited, but like earlier pandemics it won't be forever - given the reported effects on fertility, eventually evolution will select for true immunity.

 

[jt512]

Yes, and we have 4 years of various talking head "experts" proclaiming each wave the last.

I've never heard any expert saying that there won't be another wave, and nobody here is arguing that. What I have been saying is that these waves will continue, and that this is the new normal. Just like with the flu; we don't have a flu pandemic just because we have flu waves every year.

So your definition of a pandemic is that if the pandemic isn't going to end - because we do nothing to end it - then, by definition, it has ended?

Well, we agree on one thing: you are certainly confused.

I'm yet to a definition of "pandemic" that is time limited...

Then you don't have a clue. An epi- or pandemic is, by definition, an increase in the incidence or prevalence of a disease above its usual, or endemic, level. A pandemic, then, can't—by definition—go on forever, because eventually that level would become the usual level, meaning the pandemic were over.

This is not that hard, people.

 

[icerat]

Then you don't have a clue. An epi- or pandemic is, by definition, an increase in the incidence or prevalence of a disease above its usual, or endemic, level. A pandemic, then, can't—by definition—go on forever, because eventually that level would become the usual level, meaning the pandemic were over.

This is not that hard, people.

Ok, what's the "endemic" level of infections per day?

 

[jt512]

Ok, what's the "endemic" level of infections per day?

What is the endemic level of flu?

 

[icerat]

What is the endemic level of flu?

Here you go, US estimates -

2023-2024 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary In-Season Burden Estimates

 

[jt512]

Here you go, US estimates -

2023-2024 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary In-Season Burden Estimates

Right, there is a range. The incidence varies from year to year by a factor of 2.

That's considerably greater variation than we've seen in Covid post-delta wave. See here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklyhospitaladmissions_select_00

 

[icerat]

Right, there is a range. The incidence varies from year to year by a factor of 2.

That's considerably greater variation than we've seen in Covid post-delta wave. See here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklyhospitaladmissions_select_00

That's hospitalisations, and it has 3 separate waves each year, and othey weren't consistent. In 2022 there was a wave peaking in the middle of July. In 2021 and 2023 there was no July wave.

What's going to happen in 2024? Can you predict it?

 

[jt512]

That's hospitalisations

So what?

and it has 3 separate waves each year, and othey weren't consistent.

2, and they are as consistent as flu waves, if not moreso.

In 2022 there was a wave peaking in the middle of July. In 2021 and 2023 there was no July wave.

2021 was still in the pandemic. Both 2022 and 2023 had two waves. In 2022 the earlier wave was mid-summer, in 2023 it was summer. Big deal. And both 2023 waves were predicted.

What's going to happen in 2024? Can you predict it?

Yeah. There will be another peak in the winter, and probably a smaller one in the summer, just like this year and last year.

 

[dann]

You keep evading the question. What is going to change it? If the answer is nothing, then Covid has reached the endemic stage and, whether you and icerat like it or not, we are no longer in a pandemic.

You keep evading the question, jt512:

The US CDC, European CDC, and the WHO have all stated that Covid-19 is now endemic rather than pandemic.

Official representatives of the organizations, not just some rando within them.

Where are those links and quotations to official representatives of those organizations stating "that Covid-19 is now endemic rather than pandemic"?

It should be easy for you as an alleged retired epidemiologist to come up with them. You should have contacts that I don't have as a lay person.
Nevertheless, I have presented you with plenty of examples showing that your claim about the "the US CDC, European CDC, and the WHO" is a lie. One of the examples is as recent as Dec 31, 2023, post 412:

No, it didn't: The WHO has not declared the Covid-19 pandemic over (Full Fact, May 12, 2023)

Long #COVID19 and where we are. I’m worried.
We are entering the 5th year of the pandemic and we are certainly in a different phase. This phase is marked by an evolving virus (with the XBB and BA.2 sublineages circulating and JN.1 becoming dominant).

Maria Van Kerkhove, Dec 30, 2023
JN.1 continues to rise in detection, but what matters to you is that #COVID19 is circulating in ALL countries. You CAN protect yourself from infection and severe disease. Mask, ventilate, test, treat, vaccinate: boost every 6-12 months depending on your risk group. @WHO

Maria Van Kerkhove, Infectious Disease Epidemiologist; COVID-19 Technical Lead, Director ai Epidemic & Pandemic Preparedness & Prevention, WHO (Twitter/X, Dec 31, 2023)

Maria DeJoseph Van Kerkhove (born February 20, 1977) is an American infectious disease epidemiologist. With a background in high-threat pathogens, Van Kerkhove specializes in emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases and is based in the Health Emergencies Program at the World Health Organization (WHO). She is the technical lead of COVID-19 response and the head of emerging diseases and zoonosis unit at WHO.
Maria Van Kerkhove (Wikipedia)

I get the impression that you are just making it all up, all your claims and definitions, as you go along. What is it you don't understand, jt512?

 

[icerat]

So what?

You're comparing hospitalisations to cases. Scale is significantly different, and of course affected by vaccine and the duration since the previous wave more than cases.

and they are as consistent as flu waves, if not moreso.

No they're not

2021 was still in the pandemic. Both 2022 and 2023 had two waves. In 2022 the earlier wave was mid-summer, in 2023 it was summer. Big deal. And both 2023 waves were predicted.

The 2022 "summer" peak was mid-July. In 2023 in mid-July it was near a low point. The 2023 "summer" peak was in mid-September. That's not even summer.

Yeah. There will be another peak in the winter, and probably a smaller one in the summer, just like this year and last year.

Summer 2022 and Winter 22/23 waves had essentially the same peak. I haven't done the calculations, but eyeballing it, the winter wave was smaller. We're not done with this winter wave yet.