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Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 8

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It is likely that Ukrainian a Su-24M fired the Stormshadow missiles. The massive secondary explosions directly implies that the Russian ship was filled with ammunition and explosives, it's been suggested it was transporting attack drones or artillery stores.

Repeated attacks like this show that the Russian army lacks the capability to counter Ukrainian air attacks. Either they lack effective hardware, command and control or the technical personnel to put any of it in to effective use.

They have lost a lot of the radar infrastructure in the area and it's likely the trained AA crews have been stripped out to join the meat grinder.
 
In a separate news, the Ukrainian military said it had shot down five Russian fighter jets in three days, which, if confirmed, would mark one of the biggest weekly losses for the Russian air force since the war began.


Anders Puck Nielsen suggests that the Ukrainians may already be flying F-16s, which would explain the Russians' recent heavy aircraft losses.

 
It is likely that Ukrainian a Su-24M fired the Stormshadow missiles. The massive secondary explosions directly implies that the Russian ship was filled with ammunition and explosives, it's been suggested it was transporting attack drones or artillery stores.

Repeated attacks like this show that the Russian army lacks the capability to counter Ukrainian air attacks. Either they lack effective hardware, command and control or the technical personnel to put any of it in to effective use.

They have lost a lot of the radar infrastructure in the area and it's likely the trained AA crews have been stripped out to join the meat grinder.

Anders Puck Nielsen suggests that the Ukrainians may already be flying F-16s, which would explain the Russians' recent heavy aircraft losses.


Either that, or the Russians switched off their air defense radars to give their air force space to work, and the Ukrainians exploited that to ambush the Russian planes with planes of their own.

Either that, or they brought a Patriot system forward. Apparently there's been a few quiet deliveries from Germany recently.

Either that, or...
 
Either that, or the Russians switched off their air defense radars to give their air force space to work, and the Ukrainians exploited that to ambush the Russian planes with planes of their own.

Either that, or they brought a Patriot system forward. Apparently there's been a few quiet deliveries from Germany recently.

Either that, or...

Add to all of that, the lack of daylight favors western military hardware over the old Russian stuff.
 
Looks like the Russians have taken (Russian accounts) or nearly taken (Ukrainian accounts) what's left of Marinka though. Meat grinder keeps grinding.

GOP are ******* the civilised world over...
 
Looks like the Russians have taken (Russian accounts) or nearly taken (Ukrainian accounts) what's left of Marinka though. Meat grinder keeps grinding.

GOP are ******* the civilised world over...

Would somebody please summarise for a non-US person why Biden doesn't just give the GOP the border measures they want in return for passing the Ukrainian aid measures?

I know it could go off topic very quickly, so I'm only after the briefest explanation and my left-wing sources never seem to give it. What is it that the GOP wants at the US border which is so intolerable that Biden would rather see Ukraine lose the war?
 
[disclosure]Former Republican who left the party because of Trump.[/disclosure]

The Democrats tend to favor something resembling open borders, partly for ideological reasons, and partly because they believe that the great majority of immigrants and their descendants will eventually become reliable Democratic voters. Republicans tend to oppose high levels of immigration for the same reasons. Additionally, certain elements of the historical Democratic coalition, notably organized labor, tend to oppose high levels of immigration, because they see immigrants as competitors for jobs.

There's also the question of exactly what House Republicans will accept. Speaker Johnson has stated that they will not compromise, and will only pass the aid bill if it contains everything they want on immigration. I believe he's just posturing, but whether or not that's the case remains to be seen.

Until October 7 of this year, I was confident that a Ukraine aid bill would pass the House even if the Speaker refused to schedule a vote on it. As I've discussed in the past, a House bill can be brought to the floor by means of a discharge petition, if it is signed by a majority of House members. If all Democrats signed such a petition, only a very few Republicans would need to buck the Speaker and sign. However, because the bill will also contain a large amount of aid for Israel, I expect that a significant number of Democrats will oppose it, and I'm far from certain that enough Republicans would sign a petition to compensate.

All that said, I think the Democrats should give the Republicans at least a large chunk of what they want on immigration, partly because Ukraine aid is that important, and partly because taking action would be a net political win for Biden. The great majority of Americans think that the situation at the border is a disaster and would like to see the US government attempt to fix the problem. There would be an outcry from the immigration supporters among the Democrats, of course, but the fact is that very few of those people would vote Republican or stay home and risk another Trump presidency.

Hope this helps.
 
Two years to capture a village?

Good going Russia!

Oh I don't disagree and haven't gone complete 'Don' yet (sorry The Don ;)) but whilst the West definitely can out spend Russia and ensure this invasion eventually collapses we are dangerously close to choosing not to - whilst Putin will push to the limit, there's a significant risk that some in the West won't push beyond the point of mild inconvenience whilst the GOP in particular are indulging their own brand of Russian helping craziness.

Also wondering at what point we tell Turkey to get with the programme or **** off out of the EU / NATO...
 
Also wondering at what point we tell Turkey to get with the programme or **** off out of the EU / NATO...


Turkey isn't in the EU. Also, as I mentioned in the NATO thread, Turkey's parliament just moved the Sweden accession bill out of committee, so it will likely be approved within the next several weeks.

The problem now is Hungary, which is in both the EU and NATO, and continues to block both Sweden's NATO accession and EU aid to Ukraine. :mad:
 
[disclosure]Former Republican who left the party because of Trump.[/disclosure]

The Democrats tend to favor something resembling open borders, partly for ideological reasons, and partly because they believe that the great majority of immigrants and their descendants will eventually become reliable Democratic voters. Republicans tend to oppose high levels of immigration for the same reasons. Additionally, certain elements of the historical Democratic coalition, notably organized labor, tend to oppose high levels of immigration, because they see immigrants as competitors for jobs.

There's also the question of exactly what House Republicans will accept. Speaker Johnson has stated that they will not compromise, and will only pass the aid bill if it contains everything they want on immigration. I believe he's just posturing, but whether or not that's the case remains to be seen.

Until October 7 of this year, I was confident that a Ukraine aid bill would pass the House even if the Speaker refused to schedule a vote on it. As I've discussed in the past, a House bill can be brought to the floor by means of a discharge petition, if it is signed by a majority of House members. If all Democrats signed such a petition, only a very few Republicans would need to buck the Speaker and sign. However, because the bill will also contain a large amount of aid for Israel, I expect that a significant number of Democrats will oppose it, and I'm far from certain that enough Republicans would sign a petition to compensate.

All that said, I think the Democrats should give the Republicans at least a large chunk of what they want on immigration, partly because Ukraine aid is that important, and partly because taking action would be a net political win for Biden. The great majority of Americans think that the situation at the border is a disaster and would like to see the US government attempt to fix the problem. There would be an outcry from the immigration supporters among the Democrats, of course, but the fact is that very few of those people would vote Republican or stay home and risk another Trump presidency.
Hope this helps.

Or vote for RFKJr. Or Mrs Vatnik herself, Jill Stein.
 
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All that said, I think the Democrats should give the Republicans at least a large chunk of what they want on immigration, partly because Ukraine aid is that important, and partly because taking action would be a net political win for Biden. The great majority of Americans think that the situation at the border is a disaster and would like to see the US government attempt to fix the problem. There would be an outcry from the immigration supporters among the Democrats, of course, but the fact is that very few of those people would vote Republican or stay home and risk another Trump presidency.

Thanks, this paragraph was what I was starting to feel, since I tend to read left-leaning press and they won’t explain why not beyond ‘GOP demands bad’.
 
Thanks, this paragraph was what I was starting to feel, since I tend to read left-leaning press and they won’t explain why not beyond ‘GOP demands bad’.

The other thing is, many of the large donors on the right do not want to fix the problem. Roughly 8% of the United States' current workforce is working illegally. This keeps labor costs down, and means we don't give them social security benefits, medicare etc.

OTOH the small donors are becoming more important to the GoP than the large, and they pretty much all want illegal immigrants and asylum seekers rounded up and deported.

The GoP has not even come up with a suitable bill to pass... because I don't think they want to. They want this as an excuse not to send aid to Ukraine because they think Trump will be the next POTUS.
 
The Democrats tend to favor something resembling open borders,

More accurately, restricted borders with the restrictions based on what will objectively benefit the country most while upholding human rights in the process. "Open borders" is a misleading term, to say the least, not least because of the GOP's misuse. It's also worth noting that the GOP efforts to over-restrict border passage have played a significant role in encouraging crime, which they've then used to justify restricting things more, which encourages ever more crime, which...

Yeah, moving on.

The other thing is, many of the large donors on the right do not want to fix the problem. Roughly 8% of the United States' current workforce is working illegally. This keeps labor costs down, and means we don't give them social security benefits, medicare etc.

OTOH the small donors are becoming more important to the GoP than the large, and they pretty much all want illegal immigrants and asylum seekers rounded up and deported.

The GoP has not even come up with a suitable bill to pass... because I don't think they want to. They want this as an excuse not to send aid to Ukraine because they think Trump will be the next POTUS.

This is fairly certainly closer to the truth - and likely understates the issue at hand, no less. To risk delving into these matters because of their relevance to the Republican excuses to block Ukraine aid...

It's not just the large donors. A large majority of illegal immigrants are employed by Republicans - for example, it's estimated that about 40% of farm laborers in the US are working illegally now. The actual issue in political play was not actually about immigration or legality. Rather, it was more about Democrats being willing to leverage the government so that farm workers are treated as people. People who are essential workers, no less, to the foundation and success of our county. This would normally involve paying them a living wage, for example. Republicans, especially the Republican politicians from more agricultural-based states, have consistently sabotaged efforts to treat these people as people, so that they can be better exploited by Republican business owners (with similar effects in play, albeit less pronounced, among the rest of the employers of those who lack legal status). For more general reference, the slave trade would likely still be alive and well if not for current cultural norms suppressing it. The factors that drove it still exist and there are plenty of people who would welcome its return if they thought that they would benefit from such.

Further, the whole border crisis scaremongering is largely an artificial crisis that has its roots in the efforts to prevent farm laborers from being treated as people. It's become a political tool largely created by and then immensely exaggerated for political purposes by Republicans. If you want a really short version why "GOP demands bad," it's because they seem to almost inevitably be aimed at making the actual problems at hand worse in the bigger picture and to further GOP efforts to sabotage the nation and then leverage that for political gain.

If you want some specifics, H.R. 2 would seem to provide some.

Besides the more direct sabotage things, to poke at an example of a wonderfully kind GOP demand that they've packed in -

For example, if the child is a victim of a severe form of human trafficking or has a credible fear of persecution, the child must be placed in formal removal proceedings and have a hearing before an immigration judge within 14 days of screening.

Ahh, the GOP's rallying cries to save the kids. Ahh, their totally honest claims to want to save the victims of human trafficking. Oh, why won't we think of the children!

Now, with a bit more context to work with, Biden HAS stated that there's willingness to compromise for the sake of Ukraine aid. That Ukraine aid is being tied to an extremist demand to give saboteurs everything they want, including stuff like that, is little more than a demonstration of bad faith, though. For the Republicans, of course, it's likely a win-win, though, given that even if it's a lose-lose for the US, they can pretend to be actually trying to do something about the problems that we face, nevermind that it's likely to generally make things worse.

Now, why are they targeting Ukraine aid in particular? That's harder to say, but there are a few things that can be pointed at as clues. Trump and all the myriad and unfortunately submissive connections he has to Russia is a pretty obvious one. The Republican politicians actually driving the targeting have largely been quite pro-Russia in line with Russia's "God, Guns, and hating Gays" line of courting of the extremist Right-Wing. There's the authoritarian angle, of course, that has often exalted Russia in so many ways for justification and would really, really hate for Russia to flat out lose, on top of the constant embarrassment of Russia being exposed as overwhelmingly weaker than they wanted to pretend. There's the political contrarianism that likely arises from demonizing the Democrats to the point where agreement or compromise is largely counted as a bad thing, no matter what. On the political side, they also want to deny Democrats any "win" at all, as a general matter.

On the propaganda side, they have made fine use of the "Russia is overwhelming and cannot be resisted" mindset that they've encouraged. They've made use of the relative lack of compassion that conservatives tend to have for those they label as "the other." They've made use of the fear based short-sightedness and selfishness about money that they've long encouraged, nevermind that in both cases, the danger and losses are pretty well guaranteed to be significantly greater in the future if action is not taken now.

It's not for nothing that so many saw Republican politicians as a very real threat to Ukraine aid long before most Republicans were willing to admit such. Those like me were hoping to be wrong. Those like Russian propagandists have been trying hard to prove such right.
 
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Turkey isn't in the EU. Also, as I mentioned in the NATO thread, Turkey's parliament just moved the Sweden accession bill out of committee, so it will likely be approved within the next several weeks.

The problem now is Hungary, which is in both the EU and NATO, and continues to block both Sweden's NATO accession and EU aid to Ukraine. :mad:

Arrgh, my bad, I was thinking Viktor Orban then typed Turkey not Hungary. Thanks for picking up and correcting.
 
Would somebody please summarise for a non-US person why Biden doesn't just give the GOP the border measures they want in return for passing the Ukrainian aid measures?

I know it could go off topic very quickly, so I'm only after the briefest explanation and my left-wing sources never seem to give it. What is it that the GOP wants at the US border which is so intolerable that Biden would rather see Ukraine lose the war?

With apologies for the OT, what makes you think the Republicans actually want or would accept border concessions from Biden? It's the strongest election issue they have. They want -- they NEED the current mess to continue until Nov 2024. Biden could agree to everything they're demanding now and they'll just move the goal posts tomorrow.

Back to Ukraine, Russia has just launched the biggest series of air attacks since the start of the war. Desperation? Or are they trying to take advantage of the US stalemate to cause Ukraine to expend resources they may not be able to replace?
 
Back to Ukraine, Russia has just launched the biggest series of air attacks since the start of the war. Desperation? Or are they trying to take advantage of the US stalemate to cause Ukraine to expend resources they may not be able to replace?

I think there's a fair bit of revenge for the sinking of the ship in there

To be of note the proportion of shaheed drones was quite low compared to normal. Maybe the reports of the ship carrying drones when it blew up was true
 
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