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Split Thread Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla

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lobosrul5 said:
But theres a sizeable market for cool, fast, EV sedans, even if they cost more than a Toyota. Is there a market for this cybertruck? A truck that is less capable than other trucks that cost a fraction of its cost? I mean the answer is 100% yes. Is the market big enough to make it profitable? I doubt it. VERY few people will buy the Cybertruck for non-political reasons.
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The running joke is that most of the people who buy these giant pickups that are so popular (especially here in Texas) rarely carry anything in them. Now, this particular group of people wouldn't be caught dead in an EV, that has always been the province of left leaning tree hugger types. The point being that if the cybertrucks sell, it won't be because of their utility as a farm truck. The bed is tiny, 4' x 6'. If they sell, and again I say I don't know if they will, it would be because of a more modern cool, fast vibe. Certainly they will face a political headwind in the U.S., but in the number 2 and number 3 markets for Tesla, China and Europe, no one is going to care about the political leanings of the owner.
 
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lobosrul5 said:
If I needed a truck, to do truck stuff, I'm seeing low mileage used F-150's around 6 or 8 years old in the mid to high $20k range.

11,000 pounds of towing for $80k?! F-150's can tow 14,000.

The price/performance of the cybertruck is pitifully low. No one is going to buy them except Elon fanboys with more money than sense. And TBH he might have enough of them to make it profitable.
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lobosrul5 said:
But theres a sizeable market for cool, fast, EV sedans, even if they cost more than a Toyota. Is there a market for this cybertruck? A truck that is less capable than other trucks that cost a fraction of its cost? I mean the answer is 100% yes. Is the market big enough to make it profitable? I doubt it. VERY few people will buy the Cybertruck for non-political reasons.
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My Silverado has almost the identical towing capacity, and I got it for just under $7k. Granted it is the standard cab, WT interior, 2011, and with a few issues that I was able to take care of myself, but if you need a truck to do truck stuff with, of course the Cybertruck isn't in the running.

That's not the market anyway.

What Cybertruck people are going to be towing, if ever, is an RV or a bike carrier. Not that it's looking like a good pick for that either. Now if you're going to almost never be doing truck stuff but sometimes need to use the towing or bed? Yeah, then it makes more sense. Why? It's electric. Frankly my use of a truck would be much better suited to the Cybertruck than my Silverado. The 'truck stuff' I use my truck for is getting loads of steel (which is longer than my six foot bed anyway), getting lumber and sheet (which my tool boxes make using strapping and frame essential anyway), or refilling my propane tank (which has to stand up for transport so doesn't need a long bed anyway). Mostly I use my truck to get to jobs or get groceries. My truck tops out at 15 mpg. Until recently Toyota trucks were the worst mpg on the new market too.

For people like me, the best would be to have a small EV car and reliable access to a truck like mine. Of course people like me cannot afford that. And even if I could afford an EV truck, it would be the Ford, Rivan, or upcoming Chevy EV. Or an aftermarket EV mod.

So who is the Cybertruck for? Largely for people who want to show off and might want some truck stuff sometimes. That's who it was always going to be for. That's not actually surprising, but it's still worth pointing out how deep and stinky the lies about a 'good work truck at a competitive price' were. But keep in mind, most of the entire consumer truck market is for people who don't do truck stuff. The entire segment is about pavement princesses.
 
"pavement princesses" lol. True. Here it's commonly referred to as a cybercamino, for it's resemblance to an El Camino.
 
Ziggurat said:
Your entire thesis seems to be that Musk is greedy, and so he must be price gouging, but the latter claim doesn't actually follow from the former.
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my thesis is that musk is greedy and very successful at turning that greed into dollars for himself and that's not praiseworthy. i believe that he's likely price gouging based on his history of fraudulent and dishonest behavior.

and i'm going to grant you that you can have a completely different point of view on it and it's valid and just not mine, but the simple fact is i can't conceive of a scenario when, after all sales are final and everyone's been paid, one guy can end up with an extra trillion dollars for himself and not have ripped a lot of people off in the process. and perhaps this one particular deal is a really modest deal and he's been ripping people off on tesla's instead or whatever, i don't know. i'm pretty comfortable believing he's running all of his businesses with a pretty similar set of ethics, which i find as equally speculative and saying he's not.
 
Marcus said:
Cars are so expensive now that I don't think the price would put me off if I wanted one, but I don't.






  • The Rear-Wheel Drive model, coming in 2025, starts at an estimated $60,990. It offers an estimated 250-mile range and a 6.5-second 0-60 time, and can tow 7,500 pounds.
  • The All-Wheel Drive dual-motor version starts at $79,990. Its specs are more impressive, with 350 miles of range, 600 horsepower, a 4.1-second 0-60 sprint and 11,000 pounds of towing. It comes in 2024.
  • Finally, the Cyberbeast also comes in 2024, with an estimated price tag of $99,990. With 845 horsepower, it will do 0-60 in 2.6 seconds on the way to a top speed of 130 miles per hour. Tesla estimates 320 miles for the Cyberbeast, and says it'll also tow 11,000 pounds.
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i can't find a weight yet on the cybertruck, but i'm going estimate that it's well over 10,000 pounds. 0-60 in 2.6 with that much weight in a stainless steel exoskelton is pretty scary in a wreck
 
dirtywick said:
i can't find a weight yet on the cybertruck, but i'm going estimate that it's well over 10,000 pounds. 0-60 in 2.6 with that much weight in a stainless steel exoskelton is pretty scary in a wreck
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It has crumple zones built in that protect the occupants but also other vehicles. The greater mass does mean more danger for smaller cars, but that is true for all larger vehicles. You really don't want to get pancaked by an 18 wheeler.
 
I don't think the towing capacity is that important. What contemporary socially aware environmentally responsible drivers want to know is, can you fit an M2, a gunner, and a loader in the back?
 
There aren't detailed specs for the rear-drive model, but Tesla says the all-wheel drive model weighs 6603 pounds while the Cyberbeast weighs 6843 pounds.
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https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a46000951/tesla-cybertruck-acceleration/

So practically useless in the UK- the AWD model at 6603 lbs/2.995 tonnes means on a car licence you can have a payload of just 5kg/11lbs!!! (and you can't drive the CyberBeast at all its already 100kg over the maximum weight on a car licence completely empty...I doubt many would line up for a HV licence just to drive a Cybertruck...)

Even here in Aussieland, you would be limited to a max payload on the AWD version of only 1.5 tonnes/ 3300lbs, even less for the CyberBeast at 1.3 tonnes/2866lbs... barely more than a Hilux can carry...
 
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Dabop said:
https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a46000951/tesla-cybertruck-acceleration/

So practically useless in the UK- the AWD model at 6603 lbs/2.995 tonnes means on a car licence you can have a payload of just 5kg/11lbs!!! (and you can't drive the CyberBeast at all its already 100kg over the maximum weight on a car licence completely empty...I doubt many would line up for a HV licence just to drive a Cybertruck...)

Even here in Aussieland, you would be limited to a max payload on the AWD version of only 1.5 tonnes/ 3300lbs, even less for the CyberBeast at 1.3 tonnes/2866lbs... barely more than a Hilux can carry...
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Is that something they do in U.K. and Australia, weigh your pickup? Here they only weigh big trucks. I don't think you could get 3300 lbs in that little bed anyway, unless you were carrying sand or something.
 
Cars towing caravans (travel trailers) are regularly weighed (especially in the holidays), as are any vehicle towing a trailer can be weighed anywhere, any time... either by the police (in rural areas at least) or the 'mermaids' ie 'scalies' (DMT inspectors)
And yes, if a ute looks 'heavy' (sagging on its springs) it can be weighed too...

Drivers licences are often inspected, usually at RBT stops (random breath testing) and so driving a class of vehicle you aren't supposed to will be pretty quickly picked up on... (and it is BIG fines indeed for driving a class of vehicle you don't have a licence for- over a grand, and it counts as being 'unlicenced' - the same as if you had no drivers licence at all (which you don't have if you are driving a vehicle you don't have a valid licence to drive)- you may even lose your car licence to boot)

Random weighing inspection... (you can see the scales under the caravans wheels)
IMG-6425-768x576.jpg

These can be set up anywhere there is a bit of space on the side of the road, or done if a 'sus' looking vehicle is seen (ute sagging on its suspension for example)
Put the portable scales in front of each tyre, and drive on...
IMG-6416-1024x768-4143181960.jpg
 
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Marcus said:
It has crumple zones built in that protect the occupants but also other vehicles. The greater mass does mean more danger for smaller cars, but that is true for all larger vehicles. You really don't want to get pancaked by an 18 wheeler.
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well, while i was apparently wrong about the weight, i still question how it's possible to have something be both strong and rigid enough to be a structural member and also function as a crumple zone.
 
dirtywick said:
well, while i was apparently wrong about the weight, i still question how it's possible to have something be both strong and rigid enough to be a structural member and also function as a crumple zone.
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This video contains footage, about 2 minutes in, of a Tesla engineer explaining and showing the crumple zones in the cybertruck. It's basically about how the cast aluminum mounts under the shell are made.




https://www.google.com/search?clien...ate=ive&vld=cid:2ed263d8,vid:WFwfGBddoMU,st:0


This is a video of a cybertruck crash test at the Tesla crash test track in Austin.


https://www.youtube.com/shorts/OOUjHIJtDxA
 
Dabop said:
Cars towing caravans (travel trailers) are regularly weighed (especially in the holidays), as are any vehicle towing a trailer can be weighed anywhere, any time... either by the police (in rural areas at least) or the 'mermaids' ie 'scalies' (DMT inspectors)
And yes, if a ute looks 'heavy' (sagging on its springs) it can be weighed too...

Drivers licences are often inspected, usually at RBT stops (random breath testing) and so driving a class of vehicle you aren't supposed to will be pretty quickly picked up on... (and it is BIG fines indeed for driving a class of vehicle you don't have a licence for- over a grand, and it counts as being 'unlicenced' - the same as if you had no drivers licence at all (which you don't have if you are driving a vehicle you don't have a valid licence to drive)- you may even lose your car licence to boot)

Random weighing inspection... (you can see the scales under the caravans wheels)
IMG-6425-768x576.jpg

These can be set up anywhere there is a bit of space on the side of the road, or done if a 'sus' looking vehicle is seen (ute sagging on its suspension for example)
Put the portable scales in front of each tyre, and drive on...
IMG-6416-1024x768-4143181960.jpg
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That's very thorough, I'm surprised they care so much. I understand why they (and our cops) keep an eye on the big trucks, if they are overweight they can damage the roads, with these smaller vehicles not so much.
 
Moving would certainly be a pain. Here you just rent a big U-haul truck (which would exceed all your limits) gather a few friends and load up. It's really not hard to drive one. An 18 wheeler does require some training.
 
dirtywick said:
well, while i was apparently wrong about the weight, i still question how it's possible to have something be both strong and rigid enough to be a structural member and also function as a crumple zone.
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Not just wrong, ludicrously wrong - about something you could easily have gotten right with a little research.

And now you are skeptical about something else for no reason other than wilful ignorance. I could explain to you how a vehicle can be both strong and have crumple zones, but why should I? You will just cast it aside and move on to something else.

my thesis is that musk is greedy and very successful at turning that greed into dollars for himself and that's not praiseworthy. i believe that he's likely price gouging based on his history of fraudulent and dishonest behavior.
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Since you can't even get basic facts right, I am very skeptical of your thesis that Musk is 'greedy'.


Analyzing The Starlink Business Model
November 8, 2023

The business model of Starlink is largely centered around subscriptions, meaning it derives recurring revenue from ongoing customer payments for its various satellite internet services.

Right now, Starlink is more or less the only game in town when it comes to low-earth orbit (LEO) internet. As a result, Starlink is able to (mostly) offer high-speed and low-latency internet in areas that have previously been deprived of it.

Competitors like HughesNet or Viasat, which rely on a few geostationary satellites (further distance and fewer satellites mean higher latency and slower speeds), can simply not compete when it comes to performance...

Interestingly, Starlink has also implemented tactics that enabled subscription pioneers like Netflix to become global powerhouses. More precisely, Starlink subscriptions can be canceled at any time and without any penalty fees.
On the other side, more established competitors like HughesNet abused their previously existing market power by charging hefty cancellation fees if you wanted to get out of your plan.

Consequently, the no-risk-attached policy (Starlink’s plan can be canceled at no cost within 30 days) motivates users to give the new service a try.

And they’ll likely stick around, simply because Starlink’s performance is that much better than what geostationary satellite operators offer.
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If customers weren't happy with what they were being charged, they would cancel their subscriptions. The fact that they aren't indicates that they think it is good value for money. Musk isn't ripping anyone off.


Is Starlink Profitable?

Yes, Starlink is profitable – at least according to Musk who recently tweeted that the company reached breakeven cash flows.
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But hey, Musk has a history of fraudulent and dishonest behavior right? So I guess that means Starlink could have been making massive profits that Musk was pocketing. Or could it?

That said, Starlink is most likely not profitable on an annual basis. Again, we do not know for certain given that SpaceX and thus Starlink remain in private ownership.

Breadcrumbs about Starlink’s eventual profitability were already dropped in the past.

SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell, for example, stated that Starlink had a “cash flow positive quarter” in 2022. For the full year, the company still lost money, though.

First and foremost, Starlink is still a fairly nascent service after being launched in the US back in November 2020.

As such, the firm continues to invest heavily in launching satellites, setting up ground stations, hiring staff, acquiring the necessary licenses, and closing partnerships to be able to operate in new markets...

Another important aspect to keep in mind are the costs of maintaining its constellation. Starlink’s satellites will need to be replaced every 5 to 6 years, with existing ones burning up almost completely when reentering earth’s atmosphere.

Data indicates that each Starlink satellite costs around $300,000 to produce, on top of $15 million for each Falcon 9 launch. A Falcon 9 normally transports 50 satellites, thus costing SpaceX around $30 million ($15 million + ($300k * 50 satellites)).

Additionally, Starlink has also donated a few thousand dishes to help Ukraine, which supposedly led to monthly losses of more than $20 million....

Back in 2015, when Starlink was still in its ideation stage, SpaceX CEO Musk predicted that Starlink would generate $12 billion in revenue for the fiscal year 2022...

the kind folks at The Wall Street Journal were able to retrieve confidential documents, which indicate how much Starlink is currently bringing in.

According to the publication, Starlink generated $222 million in revenue for 2021 and a whopping $1.4 billion across 2022.

In the past, SpaceX founder Elon Musk stated that the deployment of Starlink’s constellation would cost between $20 billion and $30 billion.

But he also expects that positive cash flows could be reached after investments of $5 billion to $10 billion.
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Hmm. Musk predicted $12 billion revenue in 2022, but according to confidential documents the actual revenue was only $1.4 billion. If Musk is defrauding everyone by hiding most of the money Starlink makes he's even smarter than we thought. ;)

Now I suppose you will accuse him of fraud for making a prediction that didn't come true, right? And he says Starlink is finally making enough to break even - but this is Musk the lair and cheat, so we can presume it's actually making a loss. OTOH he is also 'greedy' and 'price gouging' - the only reason he is so rich (it couldn't possibly have anything to do with investing everything he had and making it work). So this means that somehow Starlink is bringing in much less money than predicted, while making obscene hidden profits and giving value for money!

Or perhaps there isn't any fraud and Musk isn't being 'greedy'. Perhaps the liars are the ones who insist Starlink is a ripoff without evidence.
 
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Marcus said:
That's very thorough, I'm surprised they care so much. I understand why they (and our cops) keep an eye on the big trucks, if they are overweight they can damage the roads, with these smaller vehicles not so much.
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The US seems to care very little about the safety its people as a whole, where here the government is pushed by the people into making sure everyone is safe on our roads- the random weighing was brought in a while ago because of the number of people killed and injured by crashes caused by overweight and poorly loaded caravans (both the people in them, and others involved in the crashes caused by them) hence the introduction of weighing inspections on holidays back in the early 2000's...

Very similar to the introduction of RBT's (random breath testing- blow in the bag at the time, now just count to ten into the RBT tester- you can be pulled over for a RBT at any time, anywhere, and there are often 'RBT test spots' where they pull over basically everyone for a test- its usually less than 30 seconds and you are back on your way, without ever having to get out of the car), the huge amount of the road toll caused by drink drivers back in the 1970's was a major factor in the public demanding that something be done about it (speed in the 1990's was another one, with the introduction of speed cameras at crash 'blackspots')

As a result, the road toll has dropped hugely- despite the number of cars travelling on Australian roads having skyrocketed since the 1970's from 4 million registered vehicles to over 20 million registered vehicles today, the road toll remains at a level even now, well under the road toll then in the number of actual deaths per annum... (from a peak in the 1970's of over 3000 deaths per annum, to today being less than half that at about 1160 in 2022!!!) 5 times as many vehicles on the road yet the number of deaths has halved... (the US has about 3 times the number of people killed per year compared to Australia per capita)
:jaw-dropp

Marcus said:
Moving would certainly be a pain. Here you just rent a big U-haul truck (which would exceed all your limits) gather a few friends and load up. It's really not hard to drive one. An 18 wheeler does require some training.
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Yep, you most certainly would not be able to rent a truck of the size you can there- a 20ft 'boxtruck' ie a pantech here- is usually well into the MR (medium rigid) licence category here- and while people may be able to 'generally steer them' a car driver usually does NOT actually drive them well... they simply don't have the knowledge or training to do so...

A 'semi' (what the US calls an '18 wheeler'- here thats a '22 wheeler' lol as tri's (3 axles) are the norm on a semi trailers trailer) takes a LOT of training to drive well and safely- a bad driver can kill people very easily, which is why getting your HC licence (heavy combination) is a multi year process- you have to hold your car licence for at least 4 years in total one year of L plates (have to drive with a licenced car driver in the passengers seat), then two years on your P plates (restricted speed, no mobile phone use at all, power (engine size) limited, restricted number of passengers), then a full year on your 'blacks' (full unrestricted car licence) before you move into the 'rigid' trucks, which requires a professional driving training course and more driving experience on them before moving onto your 'combination' licence ie single trailer semi-trailers- and more driving time and training before getting your 'BDub' (2 trailers) or road train licence (3 or more trailers)- it might take up to five years before getting into the 'big trucks' 'combination' licence- once off your car licence, you have added responsibilities, and fines etc are higher as befits the standing of being a 'professional driver'- the average semi driver drives more in a year than the average car driver does in several decades, yet their accident rate is far lower per km- that added training shows up in the crash rates...

(and that is the reason that 'cowboy truckers' are very rare here- overloading, drink driving and speeding is very uncommon in the 'pro drivers' (and even in the car drivers), as doing so could see you lose that licence it took up to five years to get- and for the more serious levels of offences, you will often lose your 'truck licence' entirely meaning you have to start all over again from scratch!!)
 
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