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The sinking of MS Estonia: Case Reopened Part VII

They are what I would call 'heritage ' ships rather than viable commercial vessels.

It's still a commercial ore carrier, having been returned to service after a long layup and refurbishment. Viability is a factor, and the Anderson may have been kept in service for nostalgic reasons despite the economics. As I write this, she has just left Duluth bound for Gary, Indiana with a full load of ore pellets.
 
In the Introduction by Braidwood 1999 he wries

"As requested by the German Group of Experts, the aim of the report has been to investigate whether explosive devices were present on board the Estonia and caused damage when they exploded shortly before the sinking of the ship."


Remind me now, who employed the GGE? Oh, that’s right, the shipbuilders, whose reputation and finances were on the line. And Braidwood said it was explosives, ignoring the other possible explanations consistent with his observations.

He may have repeated this in various other words in different parts of the report but completely transparent as to his motives I would have thought.


When you provide the select report pages requested by Jay, please include a representative page of the brief from a request for analysis, thanks.


I doubt a scientist could bend the results. For example, it is often claimed that DNA forensic results are bent but people do not realise that short of outright trickery it is impossible to get your computer to churn out faked results to the order of several hundreds of thousands to one against. Normally there will be a set statistical significance level so any result is expressed in statistical terms such as 'compatible with' rather than 'absolutely is' because there will always be that curve ball chance that you have landed the one in three billion to one against sample that really was from a random population.


Firstly, a bogus example. This wasn’t an analysis that generated thousands of data points. And you have no idea how certain analytical findings can be subtly manipulated to bias the apparent results, especially in the case of photographic images. Not saying that happened in case being discussed, just that you don’t have experience in the subject at hand.
 
Ovberg and Hedrenius witnessing the trucks going on last doesn't preclude others going on first!

Did you ever find that statement of Ovberg where he actually said he saw the trucks?

I asked you about it and you said you'd get back to me.

Hint: It isn't any link you have previously posted, and it obviously wasn't anything you had handy when I asked you, since otherwise you would have posted it already. Thus, it would need to be something you have actually found in the last month or so.
 
Indeed it was to that I was alluding. The notion that the best way to cripple or sink a ship with minimal required ordnance and minimal risk of detection should occur to several people simultaneously indicates that Braidwood's imagination may not be all it's cracked up to be. The scenario he insinuates is bonkers.



For the benefit of people who don't build and operate ships, ship engines and equipment are cooled by seawater pumped into the engine spaces, circulated around the hot equipment, and then pumped back out. This is true for diesel engines (the "M" in MS Estonia) and even more so for steam engines that recover spent steam, condense it, and pump it back into the boilers (the "S" in RMS Titanic). A break in of of these circuits is more than just an instant hole in the hull. It's a feedwater pump blasting water into the wide open (i.e., relatively uncompartmentalized) engineering spaces of the ship.
At the risk of nitpicking, the 'S' stood for 'ship', as in 'Royal Mail Ship'.
In 'SS', such as 'SS Imperator' stood for 'steam'. The first one that is, the second 'S' was still 'ship'.
 
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Better to wear coveralls from one of the equipment subcontractors. The crew and line people will know each other. Someone appearing to be from, say, Siemens will have both a plausible reason to be in the ship's equipment spaces and be unfamiliar to the regulars—but not necessarily out of place.
The conspiracy theory in question presupposes access to parts of the ship. Just getting on the ship is hard enough. Once you're on the ship, people just assume you know what you're doing. The conspiracy theory also presupposes a high level of proficiency, nay, even "military precision." You're not wrong to raise the issue of infiltration. But we're just following the presuppositions we've already been given.
Exactly, though the inruder should be appropriately scruffy for their purported role.
There was an intruder here recently in <COMPAY> who'd entered for a semi-public event and then gained access to another, more secure, area who was suspecteed because he didn't quite look like a HVAS engineer.
 
Yeah, I looked it up too—afterwards. When defined in Titanic discussion, it always works out to Royal Mail Steamer. I'm happy learning that's not canonical, but I was trying to make a point. As a long time student and then a teacher, I feel the pain of poorly-chosen examples.

:thumbsup: :D
 
Exactly, though the inruder should be appropriately scruffy for their purported role.
There was an intruder here recently in <COMPAY> who'd entered for a semi-public event and then gained access to another, more secure, area who was suspecteed because he didn't quite look like a HVAS engineer.

I do Urban Exploration, which involves sneaking into abandoned places without permission (trespassing). I'm never more invisible than when I wear a white hardhat, orange safety vest, and carry a clipboard. In the 1980s I would wear a black suit to the Monterey Jazz Festival, and people just assumed I was "somebody important" to the point I was issued an all access pass. I didn't ask for the pass, the security guy just handed it to me. It doesn't hurt that I'm caucasian, and have a forgettable face. Starting to think I should have been a jewel thief.
 
I do Urban Exploration, which involves sneaking into abandoned places without permission (trespassing). I'm never more invisible than when I wear a white hardhat, orange safety vest, and carry a clipboard. In the 1980s I would wear a black suit to the Monterey Jazz Festival, and people just assumed I was "somebody important" to the point I was issued an all access pass. I didn't ask for the pass, the security guy just handed it to me. It doesn't hurt that I'm caucasian, and have a forgettable face. Starting to think I should have been a jewel thief.
Yep, social engineering is the easiest way in.:D
I did a fair bit of penetration testing in my consultancy days, dress appropriate and tailgate worked very, very, often.
 
I do Urban Exploration, which involves sneaking into abandoned places without permission (trespassing).

I do a version of that, but less trespassy: Utah is home to some truly amazing abandoned Cold War installations. The joys of living in a state where you can set off nuclear bombs and no one notices...

But in my younger days I could have introduced you to Vance Barton, from Facilities & Engineering, who had an impressive array of coveralls, ID badges, and clipboards.

Yep, social engineering is the easiest way in.:D
I did a fair bit of penetration testing in my consultancy days, dress appropriate and tailgate worked very, very, often.

Same here. Since we do a fair amount of sensitive work, all our employees get an extremely rigorous security training regime that involves things like resisting social engineering hacks. In doing so, we inadvertently learn ways to circumvent some, let's say, lesser-endowed security regimes. But from time to time we do truly interesting things that require us to have armed guards at our installations. Those are the fun times.

The point is that we're not going to believe any argument that can't have as its premise the notion that the alleged saboteurs placed the alleged explosives exactly where they wanted them to be. Now this may be a straw man, since Vixen has noted that the samples examined were taken from critical places surrounding the bow visor and car ramp. She has also proposed that sinking the ship may not have been the intent. It happened, yes, but hypothetically the saboteurs may have had some other goal in mind.

The problem is there really is no rhyme or reason to the explosive placement inferred from the findings as we have them. "We found one kind of evidence here," and "We found a different kind of evidence there," but there's no holistic big picture that makes sense. This leaves Vixen having to scramble to throw together a tortured narrative whose only virtue is fitting the picture of evidence as she sees it. Look! The shape of the water exactly fits the pothole! What a miraculous coincidence! All those kinds of conspiracy claims boil down to circular reasoning.

Literally all of that argumentation is trumped by having the actual chunks of the ship from which these minute samples were taken. The unstated nail that Vixen is hammering away at is the notion that metallurgical examination is singularly dispositive. It isn't. It's one piece of the puzzle, but a better piece is macro scale examination of the structural elements allegedly involved in demolition. Braidwood could only do that via grainy, shadowy video. We now have high resolution photographs taken from every angle of the actual parts of the ship raised to the surface. That's far more dispositive.

Imagine that you send a sample of an organism to a lab for DNA analysis, and they come back saying it's a leopard. Okay, you think; a little strange, but the analysis is reasonably sound on its face. But when you get to look at the actual organism, and it's quite obviously an elephant, you don't insist on the reliability of the DNA analysis and the eminence of those who performed it as dispositive of the identification of the animal. Yes, you should look closer, but the goal is to figure out what made the DNA analysis go wrong. The preponderance of other evidence answers the big question.
 
In the old days (back in the 80s), pick up a pile of cables or start pushing a flight case and you get right in to the backstage when a band are unloading gear from the truck at Newcastle City Hall.

Couldn't do it now, but back then things were a lot more 'relaxed'. Plus, the bands that are stadium fillers now were not household names back then.
 
Just a few days ago, the intent was explicitly to ensure the ship sank. That's why it had to be done quickly and the radios blacked out and distress beacons sabotaged.

Now it wasn't the intent to sink it?
 
They are what I would call 'heritage ' ships rather than viable commercial vessels. There are a number that still sail around the UK coast. There hasn't been a company producing marine, high pressure steam boilers or turbine sets for decades. There are specialists who will repair and refurbish existing stuff though. I suppose if you had the money you could comission a one off boiler but I don't know where you would get a turbine set.

Triple-expansion ftw.

Actually turbines are being built right now, for ships. LNG carriers use them if I'm not very much mistaken. But being phased out perhaps?
 
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I do Urban Exploration, which involves sneaking into abandoned places without permission (trespassing). I'm never more invisible than when I wear a white hardhat, orange safety vest, and carry a clipboard. In the 1980s I would wear a black suit to the Monterey Jazz Festival, and people just assumed I was "somebody important" to the point I was issued an all access pass. I didn't ask for the pass, the security guy just handed it to me. It doesn't hurt that I'm caucasian, and have a forgettable face. Starting to think I should have been a jewel thief.

Oh hell ya. My kids and I sometimes play a game called Security Breach, where you have to bypass whatever security presents itself to get to a specific item or place. I look every bit of a contractor, and can waltz in anywhere carrying a big cardboard box or a ladder or other applicable prop and security will hold the door open for me. It's ridiculously easy when you just act like you act like you are just going about your day and look the part. People are basically trusting of normalcy.
 
Triple-expansion ftw.

Actually turbines are being built right now, for ships. LNG carriers use them if I'm not very much mistaken. But being phased out perhaps?

But not steam turbines. Gas turbines are still very much in use, mainly on warships where running cost is not the top

Who could make a big triple expansion engine these days? Plus, their efficiency is poor and running costs are high. Lots of running maintenance and experience needed to keep them sweet.

Here's a video of the Shieldhall engine room leaving port.


And the full documentary going through lighting the boilers and raising steam.

I worked in an boiler and engine room like this when I was a teenager in the 70s.
It was on an ex WW2 RN ship being used as a tank cleaning ship on the tees. It was a bit more sophisticated.
We had a small auxiliary 'vertical' boiler that was used to get the pumps running and oil warmed quickly. We also had a steam turbo alternator that could run off the main or auxiliary boiler and forced draught fans.
It was smaller, just one boiler and engine, half of this.

 
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Triple-expansion ftw.

Actually turbines are being built right now, for ships. LNG carriers use them if I'm not very much mistaken. But being phased out perhaps?
The nukes are all steam turbines..... OK a specialised, and fairly small, market. Plus the big thermal generators are still steam.
 
I suppose a steam generating plant could be adapted to be a steam electric propulsion system, they were popular in the 40s and 50s on warships and they are still produced.
My dad was the commissioning engineer for Richards & Westgarth in the 60s and 70s. They specialised in industrial and marine steam plant.
They built boilers and turbines for power stations, ships and industry. It was all based on standard designs and units.
 
I suppose a steam generating plant could be adapted to be a steam electric propulsion system, they were popular in the 40s and 50s on warships and they are still produced.
My dad was the commissioning engineer for Richards & Westgarth in the 60s and 70s. They specialised in industrial and marine steam plant.
They built boilers and turbines for power stations, ships and industry. It was all based on standard designs and units.
There might be scaling issues but I suspect it could be done. If someone wanted to pay.
 

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