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Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 8

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One of the all-time best was the sadly canceled Advanced Short-Range Air-to-Air Missile, or ASRAAM. It was to have had an infrared seeker, so that it would have tended to strike aircraft in their tailpipes. :D
 
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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported that Ukrainian armoured vehicles are already operating beyond the last line of Russian defensive fortifications, which Ukrainian forces are currently breaking through in the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Quote from the ISW:

Geolocated footage posted on September 21 indicates that Ukrainian armoured vehicles advanced south of the Russian anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth obstacles that are part of a tri-layered defence and engaged in limited combat immediately west of Verbove

https://www.understandingwar.org/ba...fensive-campaign-assessment-september-21-2023
 
Ukraine Special Forces say strike on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet HQ left dozens dead and wounded ‘including senior leadership’


(CNN) — Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces said Saturday a strike on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol had left dozens dead and wounded “including senior leadership.”

In a statement on Telegram, the SOF said a special op dubbed “Crab Trap” was timed to strike while senior members of Russia’s Navy were meeting, and that the attack left dozens of dead and wounded “including the senior leadership of the fleet.”

“The daring and painstaking work of the Special Operations Forces enabled them to hit the Black Sea Fleet headquarters ‘on time and with precision’ while the Russian Navy’s senior staff was meeting in the temporarily occupied city of Sevastopol,” it said in the statement.

“The data was transmitted to the Air Force for strike. The details of the attack will be revealed once it is possible. The result is dozens of dead and wounded occupiers, including the senior leadership of the fleet,” the statement read.​
 
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported that Ukrainian armoured vehicles are already operating beyond the last line of Russian defensive fortifications, which Ukrainian forces are currently breaking through in the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Quote from the ISW:



https://www.understandingwar.org/ba...fensive-campaign-assessment-september-21-2023

I have seen several Xweets from people I follow who are a bit disappointed here at ISW for overstating this particular case on insufficient evidence.
 

Here is more specific information, citing UA intelligence - this hit not just the RU navy but the commander of RU troops in Zaporizhzhia, where UA is currently focusing its offensive:
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1705347391111524654
Rob Lee said:
Romanchuk is in charge of Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia where the main thrust of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is occurring. This suggests that it wasn’t just a strike on the Black Sea Fleet HQ, but timed to target key senior leaders during a meeting.
Ostap Yarysh said:
!! NEW: Among severely wounded in Ukrainian attack on Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol — Col. Gen. Alexander Romanchuk and Lt. Gen. Oleg Tsekov, Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov tells @VOAnews. He confirms at least 9 dead and 16 injured among RUS military personnel.
 
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported that Ukrainian armoured vehicles are already operating beyond the last line of Russian defensive fortifications, which Ukrainian forces are currently breaking through in the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Probably worth noting that it's not the "last." More specifically, the line in question is the anti-vehicle/Surovikin line - the dragon's teeth, anti-tank ditches, etc. Ukraine's been engaged in the next visible line of defense, a personnel trench, for a while. After that, there's more defense lines to deal with, too. So... really not last. Ukraine being able to get vehicles that far is certainly of note, though, and makes it more likely that their role will be increasing soon.
 
According to the press service chief for Operational Command East, Ukraine are now controlling the Bakhmut-Horlivka road. They are able to directly observe and take it under under direct fire. This means that supply for Russian units on this front has become much more difficult.
 
Is it wise to go after Russian senior military leadership?

I mean, if they are as incompetent as some here suggest, might it not be better to let them continue to bungle their job?
 
Is it wise to go after Russian senior military leadership?

I mean, if they are as incompetent as some here suggest, might it not be better to let them continue to bungle their job?

You have to be seriously incompetent to cause more damage than no leadership at all. Even if you send supplies to less vital areas, at least you are sending supplies somewhere
 
Something that I find startling about vids of that attack is the lovely clear blue sun-filled sky. You'd think (okay, I'd think) the Russians could spot a mosquito and shoot it down under those conditions.
 
Is it wise to go after Russian senior military leadership?

I mean, if they are as incompetent as some here suggest, might it not be better to let them continue to bungle their job?

It's not like Moscow has better leaders waiting in the wings, ready to step forward and start doing a good job, once their incompetent bosses are removed from the picture.

Moscow has been struggling to find and retain good senior commanders since the start of this war.
 
The other day I ran across an argument that the Russian surface fleet makes no sense. The premise was that the main purpose of the Russian military is to bully weaker neighbors. The Baltic Fleet cannot do this. The Northern Fleet cannot do this. The Pacific Fleet cannot do this. The Mediterranean Task Force cannot do this.

The Black Sea Fleet could do this, but that worm has turned. The Caspian Flotilla can probably still do this, but that's about it.

Therefore, concludes the argument, Russia should not waste its limited resources trying to design and build new capital ships. Rather, it should focus on maintaining the submarine arm of its nuclear triad, and developing littoral combat ships suitable for patrolling its own coasts and bullying whatever weaker neighbors still have a coastline in Russia's sphere of influence.
 
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