• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 8

Status
Not open for further replies.
For those who feel like it... Ukraine Update: Russians in Ukraine are having a very bad time is an article that touches on a bunch of things causing Russians unhappiness, both for the invaders and those in Russia.

Next, it's been another day with 35 more lost Russian artillery and a lot of other things lost.

Also, well, this excerpt sorta speaks for itself.

Evidence has emerged in russian government documents to confirm Ukrainian reports of russia's staggering losses in the war, which now stand at 273,460 killed russia's labour and social development ministry has ordered 259,493 death certificates since the all-out war's start, according to tender documents discovered by independent russia media Verstka The discrepancy with Ukraine's higher figure can be accounted for by the fact that until June, russia only provided death certificates to families of deceased regular army personnel About 20,000 Wagner mercenaries are thought to have been killed in the war - virtually all in fighting before June "The numbers may indirectly indicate the approximate scale of the russian group participating in the battles and losses," Verstka reports The same ministry also ordered over 936,000 combat veteran certificates - a figure that coincides with Ukrainian and other figures for the number of starting and newly recruited troops russia has deployed to Ukraine since Feb. 24, 2022 An amalgam of Ukrainian, Western and independent russian data suggests... About 2.4 russian troops are wounded for each soldier killed in the war (a rate much lower, for example, than the U.S. WWII wounded-to-killed rate of 4-to-1 - owing to poor russian combat medicine) 60% of russian wounded - or about This leaves just over 400,000 russian troops deployed in Ukraine - almost perfectly coinciding with Ukrainian figures
Click to expand...
 
What to make of this?

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/19/africa/ukraine-military-sudan-wagner-cmd-intl/index.html

Ukrainian special services were likely behind a series of drone strikes and a ground operation directed against a Wagner-backed militia near Sudan’s capital, a CNN investigation has found, raising the prospect that the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has spread far from the frontlines.

Seems bizarre that Ukraine would open up another front in Africa against proxies of Putin's proxies. On the other hand, Ukraine is the only country on Earth that Wagner can't retaliate against.
 
Shrinker said:
What to make of this?

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/19/africa/ukraine-military-sudan-wagner-cmd-intl/index.html

Ukrainian special services were likely behind a series of drone strikes and a ground operation directed against a Wagner-backed militia near Sudan’s capital, a CNN investigation has found, raising the prospect that the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has spread far from the frontlines.

Seems bizarre that Ukraine would open up another front in Africa against proxies of Putin's proxies. On the other hand, Ukraine is the only country on Earth that Wagner can't retaliate against.
Click to expand...

I can see the point - hit Russia where it hurts.
They clearly don't care about the loss of lives.

But maybe they will care about lost loot from Africa.
 
Shrinker said:
What to make of this?

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/19/africa/ukraine-military-sudan-wagner-cmd-intl/index.html

Ukrainian special services were likely behind a series of drone strikes and a ground operation directed against a Wagner-backed militia near Sudan’s capital, a CNN investigation has found, raising the prospect that the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has spread far from the frontlines.

Seems bizarre that Ukraine would open up another front in Africa against proxies of Putin's proxies. On the other hand, Ukraine is the only country on Earth that Wagner can't retaliate against.
Click to expand...

On the one hand, I wouldn't call a small special forces team doing covert ops a "second front".

On the other hand, I do think the war has gotten the potential for smaller and more intimate scope, over the past couple hundred years. So maybe in that context yeah this is a second front.

On the third hand, the one that grips, Ukraine doesn't have much of an army to work with, and the bulk of it is currently engaged in Ukraine. But they do have a tough and capable special forces establishment, and they're always looking for opportunities to stick it somewhere painful that Moscow can't reach. Be it Crimea or Africa.
 
I hope the degradation of Russia's air defences is a virtuous circle for Ukraine in allowing more air operations, though I gather they've lost one aircraft on the ground in the last day, which was around 70km from the front line and may have been considered out of Russian drone range. So they may need to move further back. In the air, so far as I know they don't yet have an answer to Russia's fighters having air to air missiles which greatly outrange their own and are fire-and-forget types which theirs are not. It lets the Russians stand off out of danger while threatening any Ukrainian aircraft which approaches the ocupied zone.
 
I'm not sure why everybody thinks that the F16 is going to be some sort of wonder weapon. Yes, it's better than not having aircraft at all and it's better than having aircraft whose spare parts can only be sourced from the enemy. But it's not magic. It's probably just as vulnerable to a manpad or an S-400 as a MiG-29.
 
jeremyp said:
I'm not sure why everybody thinks that the F16 is going to be some sort of wonder weapon. Yes, it's better than not having aircraft at all and it's better than having aircraft whose spare parts can only be sourced from the enemy. But it's not magic. It's probably just as vulnerable to a manpad or an S-400 as a MiG-29.
Click to expand...

Both are very hard to shoot down with a manpad, unless a pilot is being really careless. Ukraine has hardly any jets left, and can't source spare parts. Being able to launch standoff NATO missiles will be a bit of a game changer IMO*.

This is why they need ATACMs or something to take out S-400's.

An "I win" wonder weapon, they are not.

*of course that depends on what type and how many they get.

Oh also, NATO air to air missiles are vastly better than Russia's. From what I understand most of their stockpile is semi-passive, meaning an aircraft has to keep them painted with radar until they hit their target. This makes them very vulnerable.
 
Last edited:
lobosrul5 said:
... Oh also, NATO air to air missiles are vastly better than Russia's. From what I understand most of their stockpile is semi-passive, meaning an aircraft has to keep them painted with radar until they hit their target. This makes them very vulnerable.
Click to expand...

Ukraine only has missiles which require the launching plane to keep painting its target with its radar. Russia has* stuff like the R77M which is fully active and has maybe 120 mile range.

*Though I have no clue about numbers. Likely more than Ukraine has fighter/bombers to shoot them at, I wouldn't wonder.
 
jeremyp said:
I'm not sure why everybody thinks that the F16 is going to be some sort of wonder weapon. Yes, it's better than not having aircraft at all and it's better than having aircraft whose spare parts can only be sourced from the enemy. But it's not magic. It's probably just as vulnerable to a manpad or an S-400 as a MiG-29.
Click to expand...

Counterpoint: Nobody thinks the F-16 is some kind of wonder weapon.

It is, however, a highly capable fighter-bomber, with modern avionics and a very well-provisioned supply and support chain.

Ukraine's ability to perform high-value warfare tasks like precision bombing and suppression of enemy air defenses is extremely limited by its shortage of capable aircraft. Upgrading and expanding its air force with F-16s will right away improve Ukraine's ability to strike at key Russian targets, and will in the long term establish an air force that can decisively resist further Russian aggression.
 
Last edited:
Shrinker said:
What to make of this?

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/19/africa/ukraine-military-sudan-wagner-cmd-intl/index.html

Ukrainian special services were likely behind a series of drone strikes and a ground operation directed against a Wagner-backed militia near Sudan’s capital, a CNN investigation has found, raising the prospect that the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has spread far from the frontlines.

Seems bizarre that Ukraine would open up another front in Africa against proxies of Putin's proxies. On the other hand, Ukraine is the only country on Earth that Wagner can't retaliate against.
Click to expand...

Ukraine is carrying the war into Africa....literally.
 
Black Sea fleet headquarters in Vladivostok have been hit by Storm Shadow missiles.
 
Andy_Ross said:
Black Sea fleet headquarters in Vladivostok have been hit by Storm Shadow missiles.
Click to expand...

I was a bit confused until I realised you must have meant Sevastopol.

It would be nice if *something* Ukrainian happened to the fleet in Vladivostok, though.
 
One of Ukraine's staunchest allies, Poland, has announced it will no longer supply weapons to the country as a diplomatic dispute over grain escalates.

The nation's prime minister said it would instead focus on arming itself with more modern weapons.

The move comes as tensions between the two nations rise.

Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced the decision to no longer supply Ukraine with weapons in a televised address on Wednesday after a day of rapidly escalating tensions between the two countries over grain imports.

"We are no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine, because we are now arming Poland with more modern weapons," Mr Morawiecki said.
Click to expand...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66873495.amp
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom