Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

[Jimbo07]

I think that Prigozhin might have actually crossed the Rubicon.

Or that Shoigu has given him no other option

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1668337052365238272?s=20

Might be baloney. I can't find anything supporting it.

 

[steenkh]

If Russia uses a nuke on Ukraine, they already started a nuclear holocaust. We have a moral obligation to make sure its the VERY LAST ******* TIME anyone uses a nuke in anger. After they use 1 nuke and the west doesn't respond OVERWHELMINGLY they will use more until Ukraine is a nuclear wasteland. When it is such, it will make at least sections of Poland and Romania uninhabitable. They will likely invoke "article 5". A conventional invasion of Russia in response will lead to a nuclear war anyways.

You do not think that an OVERWHELMING nuclear strike against Russia would unleash a corresponding OVERWHELMING pre-programmed nuclear strike strike against Europe and the U.S.?

Sure, we may bet that given the effectiveness of the Russian army, lots of their missiles may not work, and they will be able to fend off less missiles than we can, but this is still a price worth paying for stopping Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?

Theres the lesser, but also serious concern that it just emboldened every tin pot dictatorship to start a nuclear program. Because they can use them without fear of a retaliatory response.

Isn’t that already happening?

 

[arthwollipot]

An OVERWHELMING nuclear strike on Russia would be a war crime of unimaginable proportions.

 

[theprestige]

An OVERWHELMING nuclear strike on Russia would be a war crime of unimaginable proportions.

Thank God nobody but you is talking about any such thing, then.

 

[arthwollipot]

Thank God nobody but you is talking about any such thing, then.

lobosrul5 suggested it.

 

[Drewbot]

I think that Prigozhin might have actually crossed the Rubicon.

Or that Shoigu has given him no other option

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1668337052365238272?s=20

This is almost 2 weeks old.

This was the day after Wagner was pulling out and 'got ambushed' by the 72nd Brigade who allegedly attacked his Wagner Group under orders from Shoigu. They captured an "Intoxicated" Lt. Col. of the 72nd Brigade, and turned him over to authorities.

https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1665439127246893056?s=20

 

[Jimbo07]

To this day, it's upsetting (but maybe not totally surprising) that a Russian criticism of Russia in this campaign is not so much that the war is unjust, but that they're not beating up Ukraine enough!

"Come on guys, fight back! We're not big enough bullies, yet!"

Not just government is culpable

 

[Arcade22]

After they have destroyed over a thousand HIMARs launchers Putin now says they have destroyed over 180 western tanks and over 30% of the vehicles supplied by the West. Also the satanic nazi-terrorist Ukranians are dying in droves, with casualty ratio of 10-to-1.

No mention of the thousands of tanks and other armored vehicles Russia has lost since the invasion despite them being publicly documented online. No mention either of over 3 hundred thousands of Russian casualties.

 

[jimbob]

After they have destroyed over a thousand HIMARs launchers Putin now says they have destroyed over 180 western tanks and over 30% of the vehicles supplied by the West. Also the satanic nazi-terrorist Ukranians are dying in droves, with casualty ratio of 10-to-1.

No mention of the thousands of tanks and other armored vehicles Russia has lost since the invasion despite them being publicly documented online. No mention either of over 3 hundred thousands of Russian casualties.

For comparison, the Wikipedia page on the Western European campaign states that Allied military casualties from 1944/1945 were

164,590–195,576 killed/missing
537,590 wounded
78,680 captured[8][nb 5]
(~70% of Allied troops and casualties were Americans)[8]

Which looks to be about equivalent to Russia's Special military operation, and from far larger armies and populations (the US alone in 1945 had about the same population as Russia in 2022)

 

[Susheel]

Thank God nobody but you is talking about any such thing, then.

...but he didn't.

 

[Doubt]

Some pro Ukraine sources of unknown reliability are claiming an advance on Tokmak already reached 20 km. Seems a bit sketchy. Nobody making maps of the war progress shows that. I got that from Warthog Defense who in turn says they got if from "Volya". I was not able to find a story showing that. The actual distance from the front to Tokmak is about 30 km and there are two defensive lines before you get to the city and the city has defenses set up around it as well.

Several map sites do show progress at various points along the south part of the front but none of them agree as to how much has been recaptured from Russia. The Deep state live map, which is a Ukrainian source often used by Youtubers, has not been updated today yet.

The Liveuamap does show action 5 km into the Russian control area along the road between Orkhive and Tokmak. It does still show that area as being under Russian control for now.

The best map I know of is from the ISW and they are fairly neutral. Their map does now show the Russian defensive positions and some gains made by Ukraine. I will link to that here.

Does anybody know of a good Russian map source? I have tried looking at Rybar content where it is shared on Twitter. But their maps are garbage. Even if you overlook that they are Russian propaganda, they somehow never seem to have any information that can be used to compare to any other source.

Maps aside, there are indications that Russia has been sending in their reserves. Ukraine is still holding back. But Ukraine is still pushing on a fair number of locations at the same time. My close look at Tokmak is just my own bias since I have been thinking it would be a major goal on the way to cutting off Crimea. So far it looks like it may be the second most important line of advance with greater documented gains happening about 75 km further east.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

 

[Aridas]

Some pro Ukraine sources of unknown reliability are claiming an advance on Tokmak already reached 20 km. Seems a bit sketchy.

I'd say very sketchy. Lovely if true, but, as you said, lack of support makes that doubtful. Perhaps a misunderstanding? Ukraine is using its longer range weapons to strike various targets across the front, last I heard. Maybe they read about some of that and misinterpreted?

 

[Drewbot]

Orkhiv to Tokmak is 26 miles.

Russian inter-squad communication seems inadequate. I could see a company or even battalion of UA armored vehicles finding a gap or creating a rout that allowed them to make it to Tokmak. (Keep in mind that this area has been one of the largest partisan areas)

I think the strategy is to find a gap, and drive a spike to the Sea of Azov, then follow it up with a large force to secure the wedge.

Once the Russians have to start pulling troops from other areas to attempt to reduce the gap, then the chaos will ensue along the entire front. after the Russians are split, they will only really be able to counter from the east. The west will be out of replacement troops and supplies due to being cut off from land supply routes.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

I have little doubt that some of the new heavy weapons of the West have already been destroyed: they would be the primary target of Russian anti-tank capabilities.

 

[lobosrul5]

Thought this was pretty interesting. CNN reported embedded with a Ukrainian drone team. They are pretty damned advanced.

I have little doubt that some of the new heavy weapons of the West have already been destroyed: they would be the primary target of Russian anti-tank capabilities.

No doubt about that. The especially bad part is Ukraine has lost perhaps half of the specialized mine clearing Leo II's. But, Russia's claims of losses are just about certainly massively over-inflated. They've been caught making claims of multiple Ukrainian losses by showing the same vehicle at multiple angles.

 

[a_unique_person]

Thought this was pretty interesting. CNN reported embedded with a Ukrainian drone team. They are pretty damned advanced.






No doubt about that. The especially bad part is Ukraine has lost perhaps half of the specialized mine clearing Leo II's. But, Russia's claims of losses are just about certainly massively over-inflated. They've been caught making claims of multiple Ukrainian losses by showing the same vehicle at multiple angles.

The Leo IIs are pretty much an experimental piece of hardware. So this would have been the first time in a real battle.


Ukraines real problem appears to be lack of air support.

 

[a_unique_person]

Putin goes all in on crazy.

Russia’s president claimed that Ukraine would soon be out of home-manufactured hardware and that he remained focused on his aim of “denazifying” Ukraine, adding, in a bizarre aside, that the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, was “not a real Jew”.
“I have a lot of Jewish friends,” Putin told an annual economic forum in St Petersburg. “They say that Zelenskiy is not Jewish, that he is a disgrace to the Jewish people. I’m not joking.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...outh-towards-mariupol-ukrainian-minister-says

 

[Oystein]

Putin goes all in on crazy.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...outh-towards-mariupol-ukrainian-minister-says

Zelenskyy is Not A True Scotsman, either.

Speaking of Putin: Anders Puck Nielsen's latest YT analysis syas that no peace negotiations could ever possibly result in an end to the war as long as Putin stays in power. Basically, Putin has painted himself into a corner by marrying his standing to minimum goals (especially: Ukraine give up the entirety of the annexed oblasts, including territory that Russia hasn't even occupied yet) that Ukraine could not possibly agree with.

While I think his analysis is weaker than usual (e.g.: He lists "reparations from Russia paid to Ukraine" as a minimum goal for Ukraine and the West - but why, exactly?), it appears to me that his conclusion is actually quite the consensus among analysts and pundits: No end to the war as long as Putin is in power (or Ukraine is history, destroyed, reduced to Lebensraum for Russia).

And so anyone who wishes to end the war soon, no matter to what or whose conditions, should think about how to put Putin out of power ASAP. The usual methods include...

1. Covert assassination
2. Overt military strike on Putin, the person, in his military capacit as supreme commander
3. Engineering a coup d'etat by groups inside Russia through covert means
4. Making Russia lose militarily so badly that a coup will happen without any specific engineering
5. Hope for a resurgence of civil society and strife for democracy to eventually depose Putin in some upcoming election naw scratch that - bad joke
6. Contain Russia / keep the war simmering for as long as Putin lives

These are ordered roughly by the length of time till Putin is out of power.

I think we should seriously consider 1. - 3.

 

[Aridas]

I don't think it's been noted in this thread yet that a lot of the current fighting is apparently in front of the Russian defense lines as Russia sends counterattack after counterattack into largely open and unfortified areas, rather than using the defenses they built for their ostensible purpose of inflicting serious losses upon the attackers and then, if breached, triggering focused counterattacks from the second line of defenses to try to regain such. I'm not exactly complaining, but... this seems like one of those "WTF, Russia?" things.

 

[Mike!]

Have you ever met one of those people who will always do the exact opposite of whatever good advice they're given is?
That's Russia.