• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

Status
Not open for further replies.
One of the biggest problems dealing with Iraq and Afghanistan for instance was it being so hard from people from the big nation states to wrap their heads around how little the people of Iraq and Afghanistan gave a crap about Iraq or Afghanistan. They care about their families, their tribes, their local communities but as far as Iraq or Afghanistan as countries were concerned that to them was like being part of the UN or NAFTA is to us. We're aware of it, it just matter to our day to day lives and doesn't make up their identity. You aren't going to win a fight for the heart and soul of Iraq because Iraq is seven years younger than Paul Newman.
 
theprestige said:
Winston Churchill famously said, "I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest."

I knew about the first clause long before I learned that Churchill also thought the mystery could be solved, that the riddle had a key.

And I think that throughout the Soviet Union period, Churchill was largely correct: Russia might appear to be acting strangely, but it is always trying to gain some advantage for itself. It is always trying to secure its interests in a world it perceives as full of enemies.

But I think that's no longer true, if it ever was true to begin with. Nothing Russia has done in the past year or so seems like a rational application of the principle of self-interest. Moscow is like a bully that not only does things for no benefit, but only because it can, but even continues bullying even when it's against their interests to do so.

Even if we assume Putin is acting out of some desire for historical greatness, it still doesn't explain how he's chosen to go about it. In fact, whatever motivation we ascribe to Putin's actions, they don't explain why he's taking those actions in the service of those motivations.

Russia truly is a mystery, wrapped in a riddle, inside an enigma. But - apologies to Churchill - there is no key.

I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. All I can tell you is that whatever it is, it will be stupid and counter-productive to its larger interests.
Actually, when I put it that way, things seem very predictable: Russia will use nukes before the year is out.
Click to expand...

This isn't a particularly difficult thing to explain. He's went about it this way because it's worked for him in the past. There isn't much difference between his actions in Ukraine and his actions against Georgia, Chechnya and even his annexation of Crimea in 2014.

What's different this time is:
a) NATO has seen the playbook before and has modified it's response
b) Ukraine was prepared for the fight in was that Georgia, Chechnya and Ukraine circa 2014 could not be. Eg 8 years of military training provided by NATO countries.
c) This time the conflict was right beside the EU and it was no longer prepared to ignore the pattern Russia had established.

Going into the war, however, Putin was fully justified in thinking that things would play out just like they had in the past. Indeed most western observers started out thinking that as well.
 
JoeMorgue said:
I'm like Batman in Tower of Babel when it comes to countries having contingency plans to deal with other countries, even one they are on good terms with at the moment.

Batman: I've carefully studied every Justice Leaguer, past and present and created contingency plans to neutralize you should that become necessary.
Superman: None of us would ever do that to you.
Batman: Then you're damned fools.

Ability is not desire or intent. Yes I hope every country has a plan to deal with every other country. If Belgium attacks New Zealand tomorrow I want New Zealand to be able to go "Oh you mean scenario #53,935?"
Click to expand...

There was a news item recently about New Zealand not only having no air force but also having no air defense. I assume that NZ scenarios 1-53,930 mostly amount to "... and then the rest of ANZUS takes care of it for us."
 
Putin's been bluffing the rest of the world with the "See? We're still the MIGHTY SOVIET UNION! (Dschinghis Khan - Moskau starts playing, everyone starts squat kick dancing, Lenin punches his way out of his coffin like that scene in the Simpsons)" routine that he started believing it himself. He could only see the tiger, not the paper.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Putin's been bluffing the rest of the world with the "See? We're still the MIGHTY SOVIET UNION! (Dschinghis Khan - Moskau starts playing, everyone starts squat kick dancing, Lenin punches his way out of his coffin like that scene in the Simpsons)" routine that he started believing it himself. He could only see the tiger, not the paper.
Click to expand...

To be fair, Russia's previous foreign interventions went relatively well (from a non-ethical sort of assesment) and before the Ukraine invasion Putin was being quite careful to not bite off more than he could chew. Even fierce Russia critics were assuming quite a bit of military competency on their side and specifically crediting Putin as a savvy wielder of influence on the international stage.

The absolute debacle they have made of the invasion has radically changed perceptions about their abilities.
 
Last edited:
TurkeysGhost said:
To be fair, Russia's previous foreign interventions went relatively well (from a non-ethical sort of assesment) and before the Ukraine invasion Putin was being quite careful to not bite off more than he could chew. Even fierce Russia critics were assuming quite a bit of military competency on their side and specifically crediting Putin as a savvy wielder of influence on the international stage.

The absolute debacle they have made of the invasion has radically changed perceptions about their abilities.
Click to expand...

The people in the west with the most insight into Russia's real military capabilities have a built in incentive to overstate Russia's military capabilities because their own budgets depend on the perception that Russia is a threat.

The real capabilities of Russia\the USSR and China have been overstated for 70 years for exactly this reason.
 
lomiller said:
The people in the west with the most insight into Russia's real military capabilities have a built in incentive to overstate Russia's military capabilities because their own budgets depend on the perception that Russia is a threat.

The real capabilities of Russia\the USSR and China have been overstated for 70 years for exactly this reason.
Click to expand...

And a good thing, too, in my opinion. If there's one thing we should learn from all of this, it's that being a near-peer is a terrible way to win wars and secure peace. Strategic overmatch is the real winning game in town.

The only reason Moscow is letting NATO arm Ukraine is because if they confronted NATO directly the war really would be over in three days. If Ukraine had joined NATO before the invasion, Moscow would never have dared to invade. NATO's army in being is clearly money well spent, and I hope we continue to spend at at least this level.
 
lomiller said:
The people in the west with the most insight into Russia's real military capabilities have a built in incentive to overstate Russia's military capabilities because their own budgets depend on the perception that Russia is a threat.

The real capabilities of Russia\the USSR and China have been overstated for 70 years for exactly this reason.
Click to expand...

There's more to it than just that, although I'm sure that's a contributing factor. Another factor is that the consequences of getting your estimates wrong are not symmetric. It's safer to err on the side of over-estimating your enemy than under-estimating them.

But in addition, there's also simply the issue of mindset. Few westerners have much experience with deep, systemic corruption. It's hard to really understand it if you haven't experienced it, and most Americans haven't. And corruption opens up a huge gap in capabilities between what an organization is nominally capable of and what it's actually capable of in practice. You can't tell from satellite images how many of those Russian tanks can't deploy because nobody fixed the radiators on the diesel engines, and if you judge by western standards, you're going to assume most of them can deploy. Hell, prior to the war even Russia's own leadership didn't have a good handle on how much corruption had rotted their forces from within.
 
theprestige said:
And a good thing, too, in my opinion. If there's one thing we should learn from all of this, it's that being a near-peer is a terrible way to win wars and secure peace. Strategic overmatch is the real winning game in town.

The only reason Moscow is letting NATO arm Ukraine is because if they confronted NATO directly the war really would be over in three days. If Ukraine had joined NATO before the invasion, Moscow would never have dared to invade. NATO's army in being is clearly money well spent, and I hope we continue to spend at at least this level.
Click to expand...

The really neat thing is, we may not need to continue spending at this level to counter Russia. Not after this. Money might be better spent on the pacific theater (China).
 
But here's the thing. Even though the last year or so has pulled back the curtain and shown the world that NATO so overpowers Russia (conventional forces anyway) that a war between the two wouldn't be one sided so much as it would be one side farming the other side for XP nobody actually still wants that war to start.

I'm not a war hawk. I still also think the most expensive army in the world will always be the second best one. I don't see that as a paradox. I want to spend every cent we can so that when the shooting does start the outcome is as predictable in our favor as possible.

And let's be fair for all the **** other countries love to talk about us having a country that's less a country and more 50 war tribes in a trenchcoat with a defense budget biggest enough to fight God with enough left over for two regional skirmishes is a good friend to have sitting back in the bar waiting for you to tag him in.
 
lomiller said:
The people in the west with the most insight into Russia's real military capabilities have a built in incentive to overstate Russia's military capabilities because their own budgets depend on the perception that Russia is a threat.

The real capabilities of Russia\the USSR and China have been overstated for 70 years for exactly this reason.
Click to expand...

This is true, but there's also a risk of underestimating their ability to rampage around and do damage, while not engaging NATO directly.

...

William Spaniel just released a video on the Dam. Basically, if it can be proven that Russia did it, it's a sign they don't believe they can hold territory. The Crimean canal is going to run dry.
 
JoeMorgue said:
a defense budget biggest enough to fight God with enough left over for two regional skirmishes
Click to expand...

Overheard elsewhere:
Aliens are invading.

The UN: "The nations of the world must set aside their differences and band together to face this existential threat to humanity!"

The US: "Nah, we got this."

Russia: "We will utterly destroy the aliens if they dare to cross our red line. Not that red line. This red line. Well, a red line. Eventually."

China: "Eagle-chan is distracted. This might be our best chance to invade Taiwan."

The US: "Two-front war, bitches. Remember?"

The Aliens: "B̸̨̳̯̜͙̘̳̽̈͂̒̾̓͠L̸͔̝͈̪̓͌̕Y̶̻̪͂͛̃A̷̻̻̗̾̎͌͗̔͒̓͗̚T̶̥̹̯͇̀̋̚͜
 
theprestige said:
Overheard elsewhere:
Aliens are invading.

The UN: "The nations of the world must set aside their differences and band together to face this existential threat to humanity!"

The US: "Nah, we got this."

Russia: "We will utterly destroy the aliens if they dare to cross our red line. Not that red line. This red line. Well, a red line. Eventually."

China: "Eagle-chan is distracted. This might be our best chance to invade Taiwan."

The US: "Two-front war, bitches. Remember?"

The Aliens: "B̸̨̳̯̜͙̘̳̽̈͂̒̾̓͠L̸͔̝͈̪̓͌̕Y̶̻̪͂͛̃A̷̻̻̗̾̎͌͗̔͒̓͗̚T̶̥̹̯͇̀̋̚͜
Click to expand...

More like:

US Army: We don't need any more tanks, tanks are not effective in destroying the alien ships

Congressman getting kickback from tank manufacturer: We've appropriated more money for tanks. Here ya go.

US soldier: Why don't I have any ammo for my phaser rifle. Wait, is that an unarmored Humvee leading an assault on the mothership? The only people that have complete sets of armor never leave the base.
 
Yeah like 99% of "The American War Machine" is companies giving us crap we don't want.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Yeah like 99% of "The American War Machine" is companies giving us crap we don't want.
Click to expand...

For most situations there's a piece of military tech that will do the job well and relatively cheaply, and there's another that gives Raytheon huge profit margins.

RIP A-10 warthog, you were too beautiful to live.
 
Jimbo07 said:
This is true, but there's also a risk of underestimating their ability to rampage around and do damage, while not engaging NATO directly.

...

William Spaniel just released a video on the Dam. Basically, if it can be proven that Russia did it, it's a sign they don't believe they can hold territory. The Crimean canal is going to run dry.
Click to expand...

There is the question of who else but Russia?

Not just motive but also physical ability.

The dam is not going to be affected by a small explosion, HIMARS or Storm Shadow might cause some damage but would be unlikely to do much to a dam that's holding back an 800 sq mile reservoir.

There are indications that the plan was for a smaller flood to flood the Ukrainian positions downstream but they miscalculated and instead are also killing their own troops.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Yeah like 99% of "The American War Machine" is companies giving us crap we don't want.
Click to expand...

Keep in mind that the military likely games the system, too. If the army knows that some congressman is going to make sure that at least 300 SMGs (Sooper Military Gadgets) are going to be included in the next budget, they may well leave those OUT of their funding request. After all, they're going to get the SMGs anyway.

/derail
 
TurkeysGhost said:
More like:

US Army: We don't need any more tanks, tanks are not effective in destroying the alien ships

Congressman getting kickback from tank manufacturer: We've appropriated more money for tanks. Here ya go.
Click to expand...
The difference between western MIC corruption and Moscow MIC corruption is that western MIC corruption actually delivers S-tier weapon systems in addition to lining everyone's pockets.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom