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Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 6

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Georg said:
I guess his stupid argument is that Turkey only agreed to Finland becoming a NATO member because Erdogan needs the foreign help after the earthquake, and without the earthquake would not have agreed.
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Yep. The arguments presented here in support of Russia are frequently poorly thought out, poorly worded and, indeed, stupid.
 
Michel H said:
Not necessarily, I believe it could be actually a very clever calculated move by Russia, the idea being that Russia won't attack Ukraine's power grid as long as Ukraine doesn't launch its announced counteroffensive, and more or less "accepts" Moscow's occupation of large territories.

If Ukraine decides to finally launch a counteroffensive, it is possible that missiles and Iranian drones will start raining down on Ukraine's energy infrastructure once again, in very large numbers because Russia has had a chance to stockpile them.

This tactic could have a strong deterrence effect on Ukraine.
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Calculated, maybe, but not clever. It should be obvious to you as much as to the Russian leadership, thatUkraine will endure pretty much anything to get the Russians off their soil. They really do hate you that much.

Furthermore, if they have stockpiled a load of long range missiles, they should be using them on the Ukrainian forces, not civilians. Attacking the army is the way to stop them from throwing you out of their country.
 
Anyone reading into the leaked documents... couple of them are really good news,

US INT estimated 2,048 Russian tanks destroyed with only 500 left in theater, and 400 operable outside of the theater. Also, saw 97% of Russian combat battalions are committed. They have no reserves left.

Thats not to say the leak isn't very very troubling.
 
Steve said:
And yet Russia's stated goal in invading Ukraine was to provide a buffer between NATO and their borders :eek:. Your confidence in their "clever calculations" seems rather misplaced. Ever think that if Russia does complete their invasion of Ukraine, and Ukraine becomes part of Russia as Putin claims it is, then they will have a common border with 6 more NATO countries.

Surely you are not suggesting that the earthquake was another "clever calculation" by Russia? Or maybe you actually are. No doubt there are some Putin worshippers so blind as to think this is within his capabilities.
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Yeah so now Russia has a NATO member that is a two hour drive from St. Petersburg. Nice going, Vlad.
 
The Atheist said:
And there's some delicious proof of just how feeble the Russian forces are in satellite photos posted at Al Jazeera today.

Nothing says you're losing a war better than creating enormous defensive fortifications 100 km behind your front line: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023...ace-bloody-crimea-fight-satellite-images-show
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That first one looks a bit rubbish. Firstly it would be quite easy to outflank. Secondly the main trench is straight. Put a tank at one end and it could be cleared without the tank moving.
 
Edited by Agatha: 
Edited to remove reference to material sent to AAH


For example: UK MOD says Moscow is focusing heavily on the town of Marinka and its surroundings, where there's key supply road for the Donetsk region. UK MOD says Moscow is losing substantial resources for minimal gains.

Recent estimates show that Moscow may have lost over 2,000 tanks so far in this war, that they have around 500 tanks left in Ukraine, and around 400 tanks left outside of Ukraine.

It will be interesting to see what happens when Ukraine counterattacks. I recall a report from a week or so ago, that Ukraine has been training some 40,000 soldiers for "assault" operations, and has formed several "assault brigades". I assume these formations will be generously equipped with western armored fighting vehicles.

Obviously, a 1:1 ratio of friendly tanks to enemy tanks is no way to win a battle, and I doubt that Ukraine can do much better than that overall. But one advantage to being the attacker is the freedom to focus your forces on a single point of your choosing. The defender must spread their forces along their entire line, and adequately reinforce each redoubt on that line.

By focusing their assaults at specific points, the Ukrainians should be able to achieve local numerical superiority. In addition to their technological, logistical, informational, moral, and spiritual* superiority.

The unfolding of Ukraine's plan of (counter)attack is something we will see in coming weeks. How that plays out will be much more interesting than what Michel thinks of it all. I'd rather speculate about that, than go around in circles with him.

One thing I'm curious to see is whether Ukraine goes straight for Moscow's strong points, and tries to force a decisive battle right away. Or if Ukraine instead seeks to break through at a weak point in the line, and erode Moscow's position from there. I understand the latter is widely considered to be the fashionable thing. But sooner or later the former must be done, to actually win a war.

---
*By which I mean, elan, esprit de corps, morale. High spirits.
 
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lobosrul5 said:
Anyone reading into the leaked documents... couple of them are really good news,

US INT estimated 2,048 Russian tanks destroyed with only 500 left in theater, and 400 operable outside of the theater. Also, saw 97% of Russian combat battalions are committed. They have no reserves left.

Thats not to say the leak isn't very very troubling.
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Do we trust anything leaked nowadays?
 
Wildy said:
Or maybe the Russians are not spending resources attacking Ukrainian infrastructure in order to save it for the alleged Ukrainian spring offensive?
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What would you guess they'll do with those resources during the alleged inevitable and highly anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive?

Rain down precision-guided munitions on Ukrainian assault forces?

Or lash out impotently once again at an increasingly well-defended national power grid?
 
theprestige said:
What would you guess they'll do with those resources during the alleged inevitable and highly anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive?

Rain down precision-guided munitions on Ukrainian assault forces?

Or lash out impotently once again at an increasingly well-defended national power grid?
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Honestly, probably go back to attacking the power grid instead of using it on Ukrainian forces.
 
theprestige said:
What would you guess they'll do with those resources during the alleged inevitable and highly anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive?

Rain down precision-guided munitions on Ukrainian assault forces?

Or lash out impotently once again at an increasingly well-defended national power grid?
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"Increasingly well-defended national power grid"?

Not sure about that:
Ukrainian air defense missiles to run out by May – WSJ
Kiev’s forces are burning through their Soviet-era stocks, the Pentagon reportedly believes
... Ukraine will run out of most of its anti-air missiles by May, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing classified Pentagon documents leaked on social media.
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(https://www.rt.com/russia/574478-ukraine-air-defense-out/).
 
phiwum said:
Acting on behalf of is different than acting to their benefit. I find it extraordinarily unlikely that the Russians know of and have any relations with Michel.

If I were to praise Coca-Cola, I might be benefitting them, but I would not be their agent.
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dudalb said:
Putin needs more Cannon Fodder:

https://www.ft.com/content/35d34148-32a9-4b95-99da-db2470817329?shareType=nongift


This will end well.

More unwilling soldiers forced into unifoem
Worked out so well in 1917.....

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=soldiers+mutiny+dr+zhivago&view=detail&mid=804CE2512AD425728B30804CE2512AD425728B30&FORM=VIRE
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Your Financial Times link says:
Russia and Ukraine tighten conscription rules ahead of spring hostilities
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But, somehow, you chose to emphasize Russia, and ignore Ukraine.
 
Michel H said:
Your Financial Times link says:

But, somehow, you chose to emphasize Russia, and ignore Ukraine.
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Perhaps dudalb was getting at the will to fight, and morale issues in general? In which case, the emphasis on Russia's moves and their connection to poor morale is appropriate, no?
 
Jimbo07 said:
Perhaps dudalb was getting at the will to fight, and morale issues in general? In which case, the emphasis on Russia's moves and their connection to poor morale is appropriate, no?
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I suspect many Russians (though not all, because Putin does have opponents in Russia) are angry at Ukraine too.
 
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