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Cont: Brexit: Now What? Turning it up to 11

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sinnikal said:
It's the weather thing. Yesterday it was 12ºC during the day and because I'm acclimatised (should that be acclimated for our USAian friends?) and I was freezing. Luckily I've still got my big coat. Today is better, 16º.
I can vote in local elections here.
Had I had Irish forebears I would have applied for an Irish passport back in 2016.
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Just like Wee Jeffrey Donaldson and every elected DUP official looked for theirs?
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
Yeah right, down here support for reunification will start at the same levels that the gay marriage and abortion referenda won by and in the six counties the "unionists" are dying of old age or emigrating already.

It'll happen. Even England's fame for not holding to its end of international treaties won't stop it.
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Happen when?
Frankly, as long as there seems to be a bad sectarain divide in the North, a lot of people in the South don't want to touch it.
And, anyway, it should be up for the people of Northren Ireland to decide.
You know, it's pretty complex, and "Brits out now" is a pretty simplistic solution.
 
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dudalb said:
Happen when?
Frankly, as long as there seems to be a bad sectarain divide in the North, a lot of people in the South don't want to touch it.
And, anyway, it should be up for the people of Northren Ireland to decide.
You know, it's pretty complex, and "Brits out now" is a pretty simplistic solution.
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The referendum in Ireland, when it happens, will start at 60+% for reunification with no serious party* wanting to be even seen to be opposing it. It will win in a landslide. About the only thing that'll scupper a reunification vote is us being told we'll have to give up EU membership.

* Ok, with the exception of that unionist paper the Irish Times.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
The referendum in Ireland, when it happens, will start at 60+% for reunification with no serious party* wanting to be even seen to be opposing it. It will win in a landslide. About the only thing that'll scupper a reunification vote is us being told we'll have to give up EU membership.

* Ok, with the exception of that unionist paper the Irish Times.
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That one you have to explain to me, if you please.
Why would Ireland lose it's EU membership if it reunifies with Northern Ireland?

I can see it, if Ireland would reunify with the UK (as if that is going to happen), but Northern Ireland joining Ireland itself?
 
erwinl said:
That one you have to explain to me, if you please.
Why would Ireland lose it's EU membership if it reunifies with Northern Ireland?

I can see it, if Ireland would reunify with the UK (as if that is going to happen), but Northern Ireland joining Ireland itself?
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A joke about the last Scottish Independence Referendum, maybe?
 
erwinl said:
That one you have to explain to me, if you please.
Why would Ireland lose it's EU membership if it reunifies with Northern Ireland?

I can see it, if Ireland would reunify with the UK (as if that is going to happen), but Northern Ireland joining Ireland itself?
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I'm just putting as a hypothetical, because some politicians are so bending themselves over backwards to accomodate "unionists" they could conceivably offer a "we'll leave the EU and retie ourselves to the UK in the case of a successful referendum" deal.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
The referendum in Ireland, when it happens, will start at 60+% for reunification with no serious party* wanting to be even seen to be opposing it. It will win in a landslide. About the only thing that'll scupper a reunification vote is us being told we'll have to give up EU membership.

* Ok, with the exception of that unionist paper the Irish Times.
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I think there would have to be a refrendum in Ulster first.
 
dudalb said:
I think there would have to be a refrendum in Ulster first.
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Catholics now outnumber the protestants in Northern Ireland (my nationalist friends in Portadown already 30 years ago told me that this would happen, because they are "breeding for the cause" :D), but nowadays it's less clear than then if nearly all catholics are Irish nationalists and if nearly all protestants are unionists.
 
Georg said:
Catholics now outnumber the protestants in Northern Ireland (my nationalist friends in Portadown already 30 years ago told me that this would happen, because they are "breeding for the cause" :D), but nowadays it's less clear than then if nearly all catholics are Irish nationalists and if nearly all protestants are unionists.
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I was listening to a radio programme that touched on this. It appears that folk will identify as RC even if they are not practicing RCs, whereas those from Protestant backgrounds don’t identify as Protestants if they aren’t practicing. The conclusion was that being “RC” is a cultural identification not a religious nor nationalist identification. So unlike say 30 years ago when everyone would identify as their particular branch of Christianity and that worked as a good proxy for the percentage of those supporting nationalism and reunification the percentages today are no longe a good proxy.
 
dudalb said:
I think there would have to be a refrendum in Ulster first.
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Two, one in the six counites and one in the three already part of Ireland. But the problem for "unionists" is that demographically they are becoming a smaller and smaller minority every year. And with the nation of Ireland becoming increasingly more prosperous than and increasingly more well run than the UK, what few reasons for nationalist and other communities to put reunification on the long finger no longer exist.

The only impediment to reunification within 20 years will be a Secretary of State for the six counties being stupid enough to risk the wrath of the US once the tipping point on the likely result being reached and refusing to hold a referendum.
 
Darat said:
I was listening to a radio programme that touched on this. It appears that folk will identify as RC even if they are not practicing RCs, whereas those from Protestant backgrounds don’t identify as Protestants if they aren’t practicing. The conclusion was that being “RC” is a cultural identification not a religious nor nationalist identification. So unlike say 30 years ago when everyone would identify as their particular branch of Christianity and that worked as a good proxy for the percentage of those supporting nationalism and reunification the percentages today are no longe a good proxy.
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Some numbers here:

Majority is catholic or catholic backgrund vs. protestant or protestant background, not only practicioners.
 
Georg said:
Catholics now outnumber the protestants in Northern Ireland (my nationalist friends in Portadown already 30 years ago told me that this would happen, because they are "breeding for the cause" :D), but nowadays it's less clear than then if nearly all catholics are Irish nationalists and if nearly all protestants are unionists.
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That's not a guarantee of a vote for unification in Norn Iron.

Down South once a realistic estimate for the costs of unification are factored in, support plummets.
 
catsmate said:
That's not a guarantee of a vote for unification in Norn Iron.

Down South once a realistic estimate for the costs of unification are factored in, support plummets.
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Germany is still reeling from the costs of unification more than 30 years on and the former East Germany still lags the rest of Germany in economic and health metrics.

One of the huge barriers to Korean unification would be the astonishing cost.
 
catsmate said:
That's not a guarantee of a vote for unification in Norn Iron.

Down South once a realistic estimate for the costs of unification are factored in, support plummets.
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Well, I made no prediction....


The Don said:
Germany is still reeling from the costs of unification more than 30 years on and the former East Germany still lags the rest of Germany in economic and health metrics.
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Economics, sure.

Health metrics? No knowledge about that.
Got a link?
 
catsmate said:
That's not a guarantee of a vote for unification in Norn Iron.

Down South once a realistic estimate for the costs of unification are factored in, support plummets.
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We haven't gotten a realistic estimate yet. All current estimates include stuff that will remain the responsibility of the UK government after the six counties leave, like the costs of Trident or HS2 appoertioned to the six counties (yes, part of HS2s costs are supposedly covered by them), general armed forces costs, civil service pensions, NHS costs.

A realistic estimate of the cost to the Irish exchequer will be nowhere near the £11bn currently apportioned, and given that the six countiss will then be part of a country that wants them to be successful, will also most likely decrease over time.
 
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